Ammeo

Very strong support around 102 area if she even touches that i'll probably head up..

Fund Managers Cut Overall Exposure To Precious Metals, Go Short Silver - CFTC Data Another price drop for most precious metals encouraged large speculators to continue reducing their net-long positions across the board in precious metals futures and options positions on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange and Nymex. Fund managers cut bullish exposure to gold and the platinum group metals in disaggregated and legacy weekly commitments of traders report from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, while turning net-short silver for both reports. In copper they cut bullish positions in the disaggregated report and added to bearish trades in the legacy report. The data is as of June 3. Except for palladium, metals prices fell during the time period covered by the latest CFTC report. Comex August gold fell $21.20 to $1,244.50 an ounce. July silver fell by 30.40 cents to $18.763. July platinum slid by $28.80 to $1,433.50 an ounce, while June palladium rose $5.15 to $836.70. Comex July copper fell 4.05 cents to $3.1370 a pound. After the reporting period closed, precious metals prices rebounded slightly, but copper prices plunged after news reports of a financial probe at copper and aluminum warehouses in Qingdao, China. In gold, managed-money traders cut 847 gross longs and added 16,482 gross shorts, lowering their net-long position to 51,064 contracts, the smallest since Jan. 21. This was the second week of a sizable build in gross short positions for fund managers. Producers’ net-short position fell again as they added gross longs and cut gross short positions. Swap dealers also saw their net-short position drop for the second week as they cut a large number of gross shorts and added longs. The non-commercials action was similar in the gold legacy report as they also lowered their net-long position to the smallest since Jan. 21. They cut 1,527 gross long contracts and added 14,287 gross shorts. They are now net-long 76,895 contracts. Commercials are net-short and cut that position by cutting gross shorts and adding gross longs. “Gold specs (speculators) continued to build short side positions with pressure mounting to the downside as U.S. economic data continues to look strong,” said TD Securities. Analysts at Citi Research said the CFTC data show the fall in gold’s open interest and price during the reporting period was not just funds liquidating long positions, but it was also funds establishing new short trades. Yet, the Citi analysts pointed out, funds have scaled back positioning on both sides in gold. “Given the 15% decline in combined OI (open interest) since mid-March and a very tight gold trading band in 2Q until the recent break lower, it is no surprise that gold positioning in affinity to gold price, lack a clear direction,” they said. Managed-money accounts added to their net-short silver position by adding 680 gross longs and 4,286 gross shorts. Their net-short stands at 10,602 contracts, the third week they have been net short. This is the largest net-short position for the disaggregated report since the CFTC started the calculation in September 2009. Producers decreased their net-short position when they cut more gross shorts than gross longs. Swap dealers increased their net-long position by adding gross longs and cutting gross shorts. TDS noted the funds’ move to a record net-short position came “with prices moving down to critical lows.”

if ECB do cut the interest rate to negative level, EUR will be regarded as a better carry-trade currency than JPY. i will not be surprised to see a nice diving performance of U/J soon.

BCE will cut interest rates...so EUR will be weaker and USD stronger...accordingly GOLD will go down.

Asians are slowly getting ready to break the low on eurusd, just look at the PA. I think the asian session will end somewhere around 1.3570, so if I'm lucky, I will be able to close my gbp short under 1.67, the deeper, the better. I will feel more comfortable long, because USDX daily is preparing for a drop, so both eur and gbp would spike up. Curious if tomorrow goes as expected, I will probably set the SL for a little profit and wait it out. EDIT: SL set at 1.6754, TP 1.6665, but I will probably stay up to check on it and close below 1.67 if needed or move SL to 1.6703 once it breaks down.

Being on the safe side is what i would say make u successful. Always buy something u have in depth knowledge of and much bigger chance of a successful investment.

The only thing i can say is that 1,36000 is defended well for about 6 days ... still waiting for some movement Up at least to 1,36700-136800 there are still atempts to do so.

Seems that Gold could not break $1260 by falling back to near $1250 zone. This time, the fall is likely to be more fierce with the yellow metal being expected to test $1240-35 horizontal zone and then towards testing another strong horizontal support near $1220-10 area.

While Japan is on QE working on reaching 2% inflation target until 2016 or when 2% inflation target is reached and QE is lifted, whichever is earlier, JPY will be weak. I think all JPY pairs trends will be UP. They will go down from time to time but the overall trend will be UP.

Descending trend line resistance on H1 again signals 101.50 and 101.30 levels. However a sustained break could once again lead the pair towards 102 level.

Dont think gbp will hit the 16776 again . Close under 16760 support is good waiting now to break 16692.

The market is positioning for further downside and at 78.6% Fib level, 100% retracement is a big magnet. I expect 13475 to be hit before major uptrend resumption.

Gold Set for Monthly Drop as U.S. to Ukraine Curbs Haven Demand Gold traded near a 16-week low and headed for a monthly loss as signs of an improving U.S. economy and easing of tension in Ukraine curbed demand for a haven. Palladium was set for a fourth monthly advance. Bullion is set for a 2.8 percent monthly drop after data showed this week U.S. durable goods orders unexpectedly rose in April and global equities reached the highest since 2007. Gold’s drop yesterday sent the metal’s 14-day relative-strength index below the level of 30 that suggests a potential impending rebound to some analysts who study technical charts. Russia has pulled back most of its troops from the border with Ukraine, according to a U.S. defense official, a move that if completed would fulfill a pledge by Russian President Vladimir Putin. A recent surge in fighting produced a new round of finger-pointing between the U.S. and Russia, the top supplier of palladium. That metal climbed to the highest since August 2011 this week as a mine strike in South Africa continued. “Risk appetite has been improving,” said Sarah Xie, an analyst at Hong Kong-based Wing Fung Financial Group Ltd. “Investors are transferring their capital from gold to the stock market. Turmoil in Ukraine has eased.”

If it can close above .900 then we could see 2.14/2.25 2.35 on the short term.

Survey Participants Split On Views For Gold Price Direction Next Week The Kitco News Gold Survey shows another week of split opinions between members forecasting prices for next week, with participants only nominally bullish, and barely that. Out of 33 participants, 22 responded this week. Of those, nine see prices higher, seven see prices down and six see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts. Last week, survey participants looked for prices to fall this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex gold for June delivery was down about $1 for the week.

Spain, Greece Receive Rating Upgrades Spain and Greece sovereign ratings were upgraded on Friday by major rating agencies as remedial measures taken by both nations over the last few years started to support economic recovery and revamp fiscal positions. Citing improved economic growth and competitiveness, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services raised the long-term sovereign ratings of Spain to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. The 'stable' outlook on ratings suggest that the risks to the ratings remain balanced over the next two years. Elsewhere, Fitch Ratings lifted Greece rating by one notch as the nation posted a primary surplus amid easing near-term sovereign liquidity risks. Although the ratings were raised to 'B' from 'B-', it still remain in junk territory. Reflecting the effects of labor and other structural reforms, Spain's economy is set to grow more than previously estimated, S&P said. The agency upgraded the real growth projections for 2014-2016 to 1.6 percent from 1.2 percent. S&P believes the recovering economy will support Spain's fiscal consolidation and help public debt to decline slowly as private debt continues to be gradually paid down. Net export growth continues to be a major contributor to GDP. Nevertheless, S&P said the still very high debt levels in the economy will probably lead to an extended period of relatively subdued domestic demand. The rating agency expects that recovering employment will contribute to improvements in Spain's fiscal position and the stabilization of financial system asset quality. Fitch noted that Greece achieved a primary surplus in the general government account in 2013, a key target of the EU-IMF programme. The agency forecasts the adjusted primary surplus to rise further in 2014 to 1.4 percent of GDP. Moreover, near-term sovereign liquidity risk has fallen and a better fiscal track record is being established. The government is not fully funded by EU and IMF lending over 2014-15 but there are several plausible options to bridge the funding gap.

New Government in India of the BJP party seem to start their work on the bullion and jewellery industry of India. Import restriction were eased and now private companies are being allowed to import gold while they were restricted before. Due to this i believe that their will be more gold been imported and purchased by Indian which might help gold to cross the resistance level of 1308 and 1330s.

I would say it is a support around 1275. The question is will it hold now when the us dollar is getting stronger. Has it ever happened that the gold and the us dollar increase at the same time? Not for long i would say.

Closed my longs opened from 101.1x , will be looking to go another long on a good setup. This pair only seems to be the long play on the safe side..

Gold May Hold In Sideways Trading Pattern Next Week There was no majority opinion toward the direction of gold prices for next week in the Kitco News Gold Survey, but a nominal number of participants said they expect gold to hold in the current trading range between roughly $1,280 and $1,315 an ounce. Out of 33 participants, 25 responded this week. Of those, 11 see prices trading sideways or are neutral, while eight see prices down and six see prices higher. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical chart analysts. Last week, survey participants looked for prices to fall this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex gold for June delivery was up $6 for the week. Since about late March, gold prices have largely held in that trading range, and with little economic news slated for next week, and tensions between Ukraine and Russia not dominating headlines at the moment, several survey participants said they see no reason for the market to move out of the current range. Charles Nedoss, senior market strategist at LaSalle Futures Group, said the market is stuck between the 100-day moving average, which comes in for the Comex June contract at $1,290, and 200-day moving averages, which comes in at $1,300.90. “Right now this is a pocket-picking trade. People say there are up trends and down trends, but there are also sideways trends and that’s where we are. Eventually we’ll break out of it, but it’s impossible to figure out how, so you have to reduce exposure. The only thing supporting this is the Ukraine, but it’s not going higher on the Ukraine,” he said. Frank Lesh, broker and futures analyst with FuturePath Trading, said gold “is forming a wedge or triangle and as the trading range contracts and the longer it goes sideways the greater the breakout or breakdown should be… Who knows what the catalyst will be as there is enough conflicting news to confuse us all, or at least me. I see an upside breakout to around $1,360 and downside around $1,220. I am neutral until this market makes a decisive move.” Those who see higher prices said gold may benefit from the recent tumble in U.S. Treasury yields. Earlier this week, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell to 2.5%, despite an uptick in certain inflation gauges. The “bond market (is) suggesting something (is) askew, and suggesting flight to safety,” said Jim Wyckoff, Kitco’s technical analyst. Those who see lower prices said gold’s recent trading action may portend at least a move down to test the current trading range support levels.

It might have bottomed near term at 1.8834/36 and managing to rally beyond 1.90 again. And if someone expects this, he may not be wrong because stochastic made a positive cross, a doji plus a bullish candle but thats not too enough. All in all..Bullish trend is not confirmed, it has to make a close above 1.8967, things are pretty much trapped within 1.8834/36 low / bottom and 1.8965/67 high / top. And only IF bears enter to take control now and push prices lower again, most likely we will break the 1.8834.

The fact that euro has been ignoring ECB members retracements from the initial Draghi statement and Bundesbank clarifications tells me that position is still long or at least not overly short. Still I believe there has been a substantial covering from long-term longs, forced solo by the size of the move. The size and speed of the move also tells me there were longs caught off-guard for a 1.40 break, and eager money to short as the cracks appeared. Interesting to note is the reluctancy to sell EURUSD while it’s trending higher and only events like this are needed to create any serious selling pressure, which can't be sustained on current ECB behavior. With all the selling and EURUSD still trading at 1.37 is very euro positive.

Well it was an assumption on if certain possibilities may turn real which currently isnt likely though. Agreeing to ur and general perception of many of the other currency analysts around the world long term is indeed Bullish.

Btw Goldman think the targets are 1100 , but Ukraine and safehaven could bump it in the short term, Chinese & India demand are cyclically down and the dollar might stage a come back in the long term... All bearish fundies, I'll have a look at the break 1277 area of interrest.

Fundamental Forecast for Euro: Bearish A serious flaw was exposed in the European Central Bank’s policy strategy this week, setting up the Euro for a potentially rough few weeks going forward. With ECB President Mario Draghi saying that the Governing Council felt “comfortable” enacting further dovish policies at the June meeting once the new staff economic projections were released, the market’s growing calls for new dovish action has been materially altered into a full-blown expectation of a substantive policy change in four weeks.