Ammeo

EU fundamentally is in downtrend.Likelihood of EU reaching 1.34 is greater then 1.38 this month. ECB made it clear they want lower Euro.

3589 doing its thing still for the bulls and bear norm. but if for some reason we bounce from here to 3637/44 ish w/o breaking this weeks high. then make a LL of this weeks low. then the pa on a st scale will point to sub 3494.. i have support anticipated here 3494/86.. but a LL after, indicates deeper in the st to 3470 or more. in the scenario in this post. just speculation if we bounce now to 3637 and the bulls failure to make a HH. biased bears may do better to watch. even with a 350x LL bears may then be able to wait for 3637/44. the way it looks atm. of course bulls still have the ball st until. 3102 is still the norm unreached

The Australian Dollar Takes A Verbal Beating From RBA The Australian dollar took a big hit this morning tumbling 68 points to trade at 0.9376. A lackluster retail sales report followed a speech by RBA Governor Steven’s which started the downward spiral. If there were any doubts about the Reserve Bank’s discomfort about the stubborn strength of the Australian dollar, Governor Glenn Stevens removed them when he addressed the Australian Conference of Economists on Thursday. The Director was describing the $A as uncomfortably high late last year when the currency was around 91.2 US cents. It hasn’t been using that description lately, even though the $A is higher. Stevens adjusted his language again as the currency retraced some of the fall, he said, adding that while there seemed to be a strong focus on “whether the adjective ‘uncomfortable’ would be put into use once more,” he didn’t regard that as significant. Then he added: “lest there be any uncertainty about this, let me be clear, again, that the exchange rate remains high by historical standards.

Gold forecast for the week of June 30, 2014 The gold markets had a slightly positive week over the last five sessions, but that being the case the market continues to look a bit ported. Nonetheless, we believe that this market should eventually go higher, and head to the $1400 level. In fact, it’s possible that we may be forming an inverted head and shoulders, suggesting that we could go even higher than that. With this being the case, we are bullish of this market and believe that it will ultimately continue higher into a nice uptrend. With the most recent GDP numbers coming out of the United States revised much lower, it’s very possible that the market will continue to sell off the US dollar and head into precious metals such as gold. It’s very possible that the Federal Reserve may have to taper off of quantitative easing even slower than anticipated, and that of course means that the market will have to adjust for interest rate expectations. Ultimately, the market should continue to find lots of choppiness between here and the $1400 level, and if we can get above that $1400 level, this should be a nice buy-and-hold type of situation sending this market as high as $1800 over the longer term. Pullbacks should continue to offer buying opportunities going forward, and as a result we would be looking at different buying opportunities with anticipation. We have no interest in selling this market, and believe that there should be plenty of pullbacks going forward that should continue to bring in buyers looking for value. We believe that it’s likely that the $1200 level is the “floor” in this market, and that the market will go below there again. After all, the $1200 is a massive support level on the longer-term charts, and as a result we think that the gold markets will be much higher than current levels by the end of the year. We also believe that so-called “smart money” is starting to enter the market, and take advantage of cheap prices in a market that has been oversold for some time.

Eurozone Inflation Stays Low The European Union's statistics office says the inflation rate for the 18-nation eurozone in June remained flat at a low 0.5 percent. Eurostat said Monday its initial June estimate shows the core inflation rate, which excludes volatile food and fuel costs, has edged up to 0.8 percent from 0.7 percent in May. The European Central Bank seeks an inflation rate of about 2 percent and has embarked on a raft of aggressive measures to spur inflation and boost Europe's economy. Some economists are warning the persistently low inflation rate could lead to deflation, in which prices fall persistently and choke growth. The ECB says it's worried about the low inflation rate but doesn't expect the currency zone to slide into deflation.

Bot some USDJPY @ 101.68. Stops tight at 101.40. . Targeting the mid 102.3 area as the initial take profit.

Good one about Silver.. Why silver’s outperforming gold and isn’t done yet Silver has quietly scored double the percentage gains of gold this month, and prices for silver probably haven’t topped out for the year. “The real value of silver is far from being realized,” said Andrew Chanin, chief executive officer of PureFunds, which offers the PureFunds ISE Junior Silver ETF Tracking the most-active futures contracts, silver prices SIN4 -0.96% SIU4 -0.91% have gained roughly 13% month to date, compared with gold’s GCQ4 -0.08% 6% climb. Silver is priced as if it’s much more common than gold, but it may be much rarer than the price suggests, Chanin said. Given its antibacterial properties and ability to conduct heat and electricity, silver may also become even more important as an industrial metal, “causing a supply shortage.” Out of 19 trading sessions this month, silver prices have fallen only three times, while gold prices posted declines for five of them. And while gold prices traded recently at just over a two-month high, silver tapped its highest in more than three months. Year to date, gold has still outperformed but barely — up 10% versus silver’s 9% climb. Analysts attribute silver’s recent gains to some safe-haven demand on the heels of the turmoil in Iraq. But they also said improving economic data helped raise the demand outlook for the metal. Most of the upward move for silver was due to the increase in demand and this was fueled by improving economic data, which hit the tape early this week and last week in the U.S., said Naeem Aslam, chief market analyst at AvaTrade. HSBC’s preliminary read on the Chinese manufacturing sector for May hit a seven-month high. In the U.S., May industrial production climbed more than expected and an index of manufacturing conditions in the Philadelphia region rose to the highest reading since last September. But on Wednesday, data showed that the U.S. economy contracted by 2.9% in the first quarter. Weekly data Thursday showed that jobless claims remain near a post-recession low and consumer spending in May rose less than expected. Aslam said that with major resistance for silver around the $22 mark and the metal’s recent run, a “small correction” may be in the cards. But longer term, “silver may continue to outperform as it does not serve the exact purpose as gold” which can be seen as a risk-off trade and inflation hedge, he said. And silver can “continue moving up if the growth starts picking up and the general public finds more appetite for jewelry.” Gold, silver disparities “Cheap” and “undervalued” are some of the words analysts used to reference silver when asked for their take on the outlook for the metal.

It may go to 7060 or it may come down to 6950 from here. gbp crosses are all coming lower. eventually will pressurize gbp/usd..

This consolidation period looks encouraging for a move up. I kind of jumped the gun but I am willing to wait. I think it will at least retest the 102.67-102.75 price levels

Pound Approaches 5-Year High as BOE Mortgage Limits Seen Lenient The pound approached the highest in more than five years versus the dollar as analysts said the Bank of England’s new measures to cool the housing market wouldn’t derail the economy. Sterling rose versus 14 of its 16 major peers before a report tomorrow that analysts said will show the British economy expanded 0.8 percent in the three months through March. The BOE’s Financial Policy Committee led by Governor Mark Carney introduced measures to limit riskier home loans and consumer debt. Carney said earlier this month that rising mortgage debt could threaten the recovery. U.K. government bonds fell for the first time in four days. “Sterling gained some support because the measures are in line with indications we got from Carney that the FPC’s approach would be slow and gradual,” said Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan Stanley in London. “It’s not going to have an impact on monetary policy and rate-hike expectations are going to remain in place.” The pound rose 0.2 percent to $1.7018 at 12:55 p.m. London time after climbing to $1.7063 on June 19, the highest level since October 2008. Sterling appreciated 0.4 percent to 79.96 pence per euro. The FPC said lenders must limit the proportion of mortgages at 4.5 times income to no more than 15 percent of their new home loans. It also said banks must decline to lend to prospective buyers who fail a new repayment test.

Ranging between 1310-1320. Firm in my view that a small correction followed by strong upside will occur. 1280 is target before we go higher.

Price range still between the support and resistance 1.7000 and 1.7060 i think its hard to predict a trend without a break. price is going to test resistance again so i hope we can have a break over resistance line so we can see 1.71 levels ..

i think it will break 3600 and then plummet 3400..

Survey Participants Heavily Bullish On Gold Prices For Next Week A strong majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey forecast higher prices next week, as many expect the yellow metal to build on momentum uncovered this week. Out of 37 participants, 26 responded this week. Of those, 18 see higher prices, six see lower prices and two see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts. Last week, survey participants were bullish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was up about $42 for the week. “The gold market has finally woken up to the fact that the Federal Reserve is going to continue to be very accommodative. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen herself (made) clear that any interest hikes are some time into the future and inferred that higher inflation is not a real concern of hers. So gold jumped after the (Federal) Open Market Committee meeting put out its statement and continued rallying. Iraq supports gold but is not the primary reason gold has moved up,” said Adrian Day, chairman and chief executive officer of Adrian Day Asset Management. Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank, echoed similar views. “The triple combination of a slightly more dovish Fed, the crisis in Iraq and the technical break back above the 200-day moving average leaves the door open for higher prices next week. A strong silver close this Friday could signal a break above the downtrend from 2011 and that could spur this metal on to further gains,” he said. Those participants who call for weaker prices next week said considering the rally came so swiftly, a pullback might be in order. Additionally, they noted little physical demand on the move higher, which has been a problem plaguing gold for a few months now. “I can see by the gold forward rates that the buying was coming from the hedge fund/spec (speculative) community and not the physical buyers. The physical buyers have actually turned slight sellers at these levels. The buying on Thursday seemed to me to be panic short covering. A settlement above $1,325 should attract some aggressive buying from the fund sector but until them I remain slightly bearish at these levels,” said Kevin Grady, owner Phoenix Futures and Options LLC. A few participants who are neutral on prices said they believe gold needs to consolidate the current gains before it can make its next move.

Concerns over the Thailand political crisis, as signaled by BoJ's recent release of minutes, became fuel for UJ. A break of 102.30 can be followed by 102.40, 102.50 and 102.65. On the downside, 102.20 and 102 level become renewed supports.

i will retrace to 1.3570 - 1.3580, then will go North. i think this is real easy trade.

Fed Keeps Rates Unchanged, Sees Eventual Rise in 2015, 2016 Federal Reserve officials fine-tuned their interest-rate projections on Wednesday and announced further reductions in their monthly bond purchases, leaving the program on course to end later this year. With the bond-buying program winding down, officials are increasingly turning their attention to the question of when to start raising short-term interest rates from near zero. Officials indicated they expected short-term rates to remain there through the year. New interest-rate projections released by the central bank suggest officials see rates rising slightly more than previously forecast in 2015 and 2016, though not as much in the longer run. The Fed's benchmark federal funds rate has been slightly above zero since December 2008. "Growth in economic activity has rebounded in recent months," the Fed said in a policy statement at the conclusion of a two-day policy meeting, citing an improving job market and resumed growth in business investment. U.S. stocks bounced back into record territory and bonds rallied after the Fed signaled that its plans are largely steady. The S&P 500 index rose 14.99 points, or 0.8%, to 1956.98, surpassing its June 9 record close of 1951.27. The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 98.13 points, or 0.6%, to 16906.62 after earlier being down 26 points, and the 10-year U.S. Treasury note rose 18/32 in price to push the yield down to 2.59%. The Fed's latest tint of optimism about the economy follows a dismal first quarter in which the economy contracted, forcing officials to reduce their projection for economic growth this year. The Fed now forecasts that the economy will expand 2.2% this year, substantially slower than a projected growth rate of near 3% offered last March. Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen, at a news conference after the Fed meeting, said there are "many good reasons" to expect faster growth in 2015 and 2016, including an improving labor market, the Fed's easy credit policies, reduced household debt burdens, rising stock and home prices and an improving global economy. She said she also expects consumer spending to pick up in part due to rising wages.

WGC: Gold 'Highly Liquid' Among Alternative Assets Gold is not only an alternative investment that adds diversification to portfolios, but many gold investments are more “highly liquid” than many investors may realize, said a World Gold Council official. The daily volume in the gold market rivals that of many of the world’s currency crosses and individual stocks, the WGC said in a report titled “Risk management and capital preservation.” Additionally, the report argues that gold is more like a currency than other commodities, even though the precious metal is often referred to as a commodity and is one of the components of the main commodity indices. Juan Carlos Artigas, director of investment research for the World Gold Council, outlined some of the findings in an interview with Kitco News. The WGC is a market development organization for the gold industry. “Investors have been looking for alternative assets for some time now,” he said. Interest in alternatives to stocks, bonds and money markets has grown significantly over the past decade, with investors putting money to work in private equity, hedge funds, real estate and commodities, seeking both diversification and improved risk-adjusted returns, he explained. However, the report said, only 5% of $153 trillion in total financial assets are currently in such alternatives and less than 1% is in gold. Alternatives have generally outperformed stocks on a risk-adjusted basis, said the WGC. Further, gold has outperformed stocks and commodities on average since 1990 and even more so since 2000, the WGC said. However, many of the so-called alternatives actually correlate significantly to stocks, especially during periods of systemic risk, Artigas said. “Gold is bringing something new and good to the picture…especially in periods of systematic risk,” he said. “It is a very well diversified asset. It is the one alternative asset that has the lowest correlation consistently with respect to stocks, whether in good times or not. It is also very liquid.”

Will be going for longs.. first target 102.1 second target 102.4

Cable has not fell below 16950. What does it means. Next week could be interesting . 70% 170 or above 30% south. Time will show.

Monday will probably see 1.3557 takes us back too 1.3533/29 then up too 1.3570 then that's the top of the move and will be shorted...... people be targeting double bottom of last move so 1.3512.. and that's likely to be S1 on daily.... others targeting last swing low of 1.3503 then others targeting the proper low at 1.3486 if 1.3486 breaks by even a fraction of a pip then not sure if will pullback or short immediately... aint got enough data on pro realtime but other charts suggest new short would be around 1.3537 if its going to work but if 1.3486 breaks by a fraction of a pip you will have shorters immediately at 1.3512 .

Survey Participants See Higher Gold Prices Next Week Gold prices may drift higher next week, the majority of participants in the Kitco News Gold Survey said, based on rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Out of 33 participants, 24 responded this week. Of those, 16 see prices higher, three see prices lower and five see prices trading sideways or are neutral. Market participants include bullion dealers, investment banks, futures traders and technical-chart analysts. Last week, survey participants were bearish for this week. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT, Comex August gold was up about $21 for the week. Those participants who see higher prices said the news out of Iraq, that insurgents seized Mosul, a town near one of Iraq’s biggest oil pipelines, underpins gold prices for the time being. However, most participants who see higher prices, such as Adam Klopfenstein, market strategist with Archer Financial Services, said they’re not seeing sizable gains next week because values are bumping into technical chart resistance. That ceiling starts around $1,280 an ounce. “I’m mildly bullish,” Klopfenstein said. Those who see weaker prices next week said gold’s strength based on geopolitical factors can be fleeting, especially if events change and the insurgency loses momentum. Additionally, there is the Federal Open Market Committee meeting next week and that may reinforce ideas that the U.S. economy is slowly strengthening. “I think the Iraq situation shook everybody up. Oil rallied sharply and we were able to push gold higher…. But I’m not convinced that we won’t see more downside. I think you can cautiously sell rallies if we get to $1,280. Thirteen hundred is the big resistance. If we don’t find any more news then we’ll probably go back to $1,240. There’s the FOMC next week; that’s worth watching. That could change things quickly. And it’s another reason why I would sell rallies,” said Afshin Nabavi, head of trading at trading house MKS (Switzerland) SA in Geneva. A few survey participants said they see gold holding in a trading range as the geopolitical news isn’t enough to push it above current resistance levels between $1,280 and $1,300, while the FOMC meeting isn’t likely to be enough to push gold under support between $1,250 and $1,240.

Short around 863 and looking to close around 500 if it is indeed going to rebound and start going bullish again

Just closed the short from yesterday am 50 pips and now Long again and staying long

EURUSD not even going back to retrace any of Tuesday's daily candle. Sometimes a lack of retrace means the move is extended, but I don't believe that to be the case in this scenario. Best case for scenario for longs is it drops in a straight line from here to 1.35 and then see capitulation short covering, while retail starts to open shorts for themselves.