M.A

GBP showed nothing special today. GDP data from UK was as estimated before release. technical analysis show bullish movement in short term. Technically Longterm trend is unclear so far. Forexbenz??? Heard it first time.

Today's usd/jpu. Usd/jpy started with small bullish move and it looked like it will break resistance zone 92.35 to 92.40 but it failed to do so and broke the support zone of 91.65. It bounced back from the next support zone of 1.30 and till now trading bullish. Longterm perspective on yen.Traders made a lot of money by expected weakness of JPY against other major currencies. In current month, this pair has managed to maintain a base and now there arent easy trades anymore. I think Yen has already lost much and now it will be going up in coming weeks. I am currently on hold to see a major bounce. Eur/usd has already touched seven week low yesterday. Today it started in upward direction but till now it has made no significant moves. It is still far away from resistance zone of 1.3270 to 1.3280. Technical indicators show more downward movements with a little favor to small bounce backs.

Eur/Usd rallied due to positive effect of italian elections. Pair has already touched resistance zone of 1.3310. Next resistance zone is around 1.3425 to 1.3430. Usd/Jpy touched 94.50 level in the start of asian session. This gaped move was mainly due to speculation about appointment of new governor of BOJ. usd/jpy couldnt maintian that level and we can see a drop to 93.97 within 2 hours and then to 93.67. Currently market is rangish but favoring bullish move. It may touch 94.70 level and then move to 95.00 in this week.

GBP is currently trading at about 32-month low. At this time pressure is increasing especially after the credit rating of UK is downgraded from AAA. A weaker support level is waiting at 1.4905 and a further break would take it to 1.4850.

Exactly. It doesnt matter if probability is high or low, if there is an element of randomness, it will be a guess. We can call it guess with high probability of success but it will still be a guess. But my point is not about if it is guess or not. I am trying to prove that market is bot purely random but partially random. Even if it is partially random, in the end we will call it a guess. Difference between partial and pure randomness is same as in coin flipping and market. Probability is also in coin flipping but it is pure guess or pure randomness. Probability is in market too but it is not pure guess or pure randomness.

Company's financials r neutral with a little favor on Buy side. With so many stock choices, to buy as longterm investment, I dun think it is a good time to buy Exxon Mobil. Their performance has been average and in most cases less than previous year performance.

A bit late in replying but .... anyway. I want to clarify things. Two of my lines r quoted and not in full but half of one line and half of another. I think it is not a suitable way of understanding one's view. Please read completely and quote a compelete sentence plus context in which it is written. I would like to explain my point in another way which may be understandable for u. 1- Market moves r based on some factors. There r many debates about having "edge" on others in getting information about market. So if u have some "BIG edge" which gives u every information about those factors then there is no randomness for u. 2- Practically it is not possible to be in a position where u can get all this information. We assume that u get 70% of the information and remaining 30% of information is unknown. Then based on 70% of the information u will try to predict the future moves of market. Remaining 30% is creating an element of randomness. In other words we can call this 30% as probability of failure or partial randomness.

It will be a long post if I start posting graphs and then explain them. The best thing is to have a look at the following wiki link. It is not the only link but I think information provided is enough to understand about which eurozone countries r in "crisis". European sovereign-debt crisis - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Eurozone crisis is not actually of "ALL" euro countries. Which is why u cannot see a clear decline in eur. But if u see performance of individual countries in eurozone, mentioned by u, u will notice a situation of severe crisis. Why there is no solution found till now? Because no third party within eurozone wants itself to be involved in crisis and they consider it a matter of individual countries. There r many statements similar to "we dont want to solve eurocrisis at the cost of our country's economy". So it looks almost impossible for eurozone to solve it in near future.

Even though there were a little less than expected data release from U.S, it is interesting to see that dollar has gained strength against most of the major currencies today. Housing starts figures show 8.5% drop for the month of january whereas expected figures were better. We can see a slight increasae in building permits and housing market. All these things have almost no effect on usd/jpy and the pair is still in consolidation mode. I think this pair will be out of the current situation after the news release of new BOJ governor.

Draghi, for many, is euro savior. But he is actually "over-involved" in doing it which has already started problems for eur. Strengthening euro on purpose may work for short term but can never work for longer term. This is what we r now watching in euro case. In feb, eur is continuously loosing . Draghi was too involved in supporting individual eurozone countries. I dun agree with the point displaying Mario as eur savior. He played his cards well but in the end he knew that more intervention means currency war. So the current scenario and weakness in eur is actually correction which was due. Bad GDP data from whole eur zone reflects that strengthening eur was on purpose. For fundamental analysts, his comments r of high value which impact market greatly.

Previous week was one of big weeks for fundamental analysts. Bad GDP data from eurozone, G20 meeting and Tokyo's intervention to weaken JPY etc. This thread is about "what can we expect in coming week". Previous week Usd/Jpy managed to end the week with minor gain. In G20 meeting, nations have agreed to avoid any possible currency war. So we may no longer see "intentional" currency weakening to boost growth because if this process of devaluation continues, it will create an environment of competition which will then lead to dangerous results. Coming week will reflect the thoughts of traders on these decisions made by G20. Technically usd/jpy support zone is around 91.95 - 92.15. Resitance zone is 93.75 to 94.00. Like usd/jpy, eur/usd change in open and close price for the week has shows no significant change. But during-the-week movements were unexpected most of the times. In coming week eur/usd will, more likely, be seen in consolidation mode. Technically, support zone is 1.3248 - 1.3265. Resitance zone is 1.3442 - 1.3452. This week, like last, GBP will be facing pressure. Last week, bad retail figures helped gbp/usd to hit 7-month low. There r some news this week too from BOE and we can see expect more downward moves. Technically gbp/usd support zone is around 1.5375 - 1.5390. Resistance Zone is around 1.5645 - 1.5680

It can be favorite reads in terms of struggles which the author made while throughout his trading career. This book not only defines about his trading life but also about his past life and how he started trading. Trading strategy is not explained very clearly. To understand his "box strategy", u will have to read it more than once. It is just an OK Book for traders. If u r interested in reading diaries, then consider it a trading diary and u will enjoy it.

USD/JPY traders r on the hold and waiting for final statement from G20. Many investors r expecting strong criticism on Japan. But many strong sources r denying that japan will face any serious cricism. Because not only japan, but many other countries also took part in "currency war". So Japan is in a better position now to answer incase it is singled out. British finance minister said that contries shouldnt use currencies as a tool of economic warfare.

Technical analysis of GBP is favoring bearish moves in future with chances of small bounce back from support zone of 1.5440 to 1.5390. Resistance zone is currently at 1.5875 to 1.5834. GBP set a new 7-month low in past week after speech from BOE's governor. Unpexcted results of retail sales pulled GBP downwards on the last day of trading week. Expected percentage was 0.5% and the result, with the difference of 1.1%, was -0.6%. But this bad percentage was mainly due to bad weather situation in UK. At this time GBP's growth is under pressure due to unsupportive figures. At this time, BOE's attention is more towards growth and less towards targeting inflation.

This week started with bullish mood and MSFT touched highest point since 30-jan. But longterm trend is ranging. I suggest "hold" but many investors r hopping this time about a break above resistance levels which can lead to new heights.

Yes this is correct. Technical indicators r also in favor of strong bullish moves. It looks like windows 8 failure has not done much damage. Actually microsoft is able to maitain high level of liquidity and fall in growth of one business sector has not affected much because of growth in sales of other products by microsoft (server tools and online services etc). Even, in the past, cashflow was never a problem but that cash wasnt properly managed in the recent past which resulted in less than expected results. At this time performance is just ok. We can see a recovery but company can do much better. By looking and reading at different sources, one can see hold policy" from investor's point of view.

I will give my opinion on three Major currency pairs. usd/jpy showed gain in mid of the previous week and ended with nothing significant. Fundamental factors in future indicates that it can show some bullish moves. There is uncertainty about next governor, in march, of BOJ. Incase or rise it will cross support zone of 93.50 to 93.60. eur/usd ended previous week in bearish mood due to Draghi's "no comment" behavior on current eur exchange rate. According to him, inflation rates have fallen and will continue to fall in coming months. So this currency pair will, most probably, show bullish trend in the coming week. There r other fundamental factors, including uncertainty over upcoming inflation report from BOE, which will support upward trend. gbp/usd depends mainly on inflation report of first quarter from BOE.

Microsoft started 2012 with bullish mood but ended 2012 loosing all that gain. This loss shows failure of Microsoft windows 8. Microsoft was unable to make a successful product. Earnings forecast for MSFT for the year 2012-13 is also very low. Average earnings forecast for next 5 years is around 10%/year and current year will acheive only about 3%. By looking at current situation, MSFT will, most probably, show more bearish moves this month.

Only those people think about "Relying on forex" who do not have luxury life but want to have one. I am not saying that ALL such people want to trade forex full time but these r the only type of people. WHY? Because if u r already earning very high income and living a luxurious life then u will never even think to rely on forex. If u r earning low then probability of having big capital, which can provide high return in terms of $$$, is low. You can also loose, so u also need to make sure that u have some backup incase worst happens. So WHO can rely on forex? Relying on forex is actually step by step process. Increase ur skill level to become a pro trader. Be consistently profitable. When u have proven track record, start account management. Commissions from account management will increase ur income which will increase ur capital. This 4 step process is long enough to take more than few years.

We all were watching eur rallying strongly against usd for more than a week. For the first time it showed bearish trend today. There were a couple of reasons why it weakend against usd today. One important reason is political instability in spain. Another reason is currency value went high very quickly and this bearish trend was due. Do u think a rise of around 7% in eur against usd was uncomfortable for ECB? or is it possible that they arent happy about this quick rise? If we look at broader scenario, eur/usd is at average level. I mentioned in my previous post about eur/usd that draghi's steps to benefit individual countries and strenghthen euro currency will only work for short term. Eurozone will have to pay price in long run coz their growth rate doesnt match with currency rise. Prime focus of investors, this week, will be Draghi's speech. But he has fewer choices to answer the question about this gain in currency. It is highly possible that ECB will not talk about euro unless someone asks. Draghi's stance is already known. Spain is facing political issues. I think traders should be ready for more bearish moves by eur/usd.

With small account, it is possible to achieve 25-35% return per month, but for limited time. I am saying "possible" coz usually traders use very high leverage on small accounts in order to gain big amounts which causes high return rate (if they r profiting). But in the end as the account gets bigger (lot size remains same), return rate will fall. If u make ur lot size bigger (proportionate to ur account), there is chance that u will loose everything within few days bcoz u r exposing urself to high risk. Bottom line is 25% return per month, on consistent basis, is unrealistic goal.

There is no one way of doing analysis especially technical analysis. To relate technical analysis which u were using in equity stock market with forex market, it is important to tell us the type of technical analysis u have used there. Technical analysis is useful for any trading derivative as long as u understand the logic behind that analysis.

Yes that is, without any doubt, correct. Gann angle measurements r not exact. Angles given are approximate measures or we can say rounded off.

It can only be proved on paper and has been proved under concept of probability. Even flipping a coin will not produce 1:1 result in reality. In forex, u cannot assume a breakeven by entering randomly. Here is a detailed explanation of WHY. Flipping a coin is the best example to understand it (assuming that it produces 1:1). There is no trend type factor in flipping a coin. There is no fundamental or technical analysis (there is said to be one type of technical analysis to judge it which is taken from Cricket) required to judge the result of coin flipped. These reasons make coin-flipping purely random. Whereas market movements r based on real factors. Even if u ignore the spreads and other costs (coz they can be adjusted by adjusting TP and SL), result can never be 1:1. I think best way is to make a simple program to trade randomly. Review results, adjust settings and re-test and then all this cycle again. If by adjusting results, u get close to what u r trying to acheive (which is not possible in my opinion), then u r doing right thing.