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M.A
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Gbp gained minor strength against usd and eur when trading resumed this week. Later it lost to them. Due to holidays in US and UK, day has been very inactive. Pair is currently moving towards support zone of 1.5065 - 1.5070.
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As expected, it has been very quiet day for usd. Eur/usd's has moved 35 pips since start of the trading this week. Total change at the moment is 1 pip. Expecting slightly better day tomorrow. Usd/jpy continues its bearish trend. Technically, support zone is seen around 100.50.
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Previous month, GBP gained 340 pips against usd and this month it has lost 412 pips so far. Economist were hoping that gbp's recovery, which started in previous month, is steady. But now those hopes are fading. Next week we do not have any significant economic data release from U.K.
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eur's recent performance has been very surprising for investors. As I said in my previous post that eur/usd was expected to go down in previous week but it actually went up and ended in positive region. Weakening of eur was mainly due to rate cut and concerns over eurozone recovery. Next week we have german employement and retail sales figure which could impact the most. Currently it is advised to stay on hold. Recent euro recovery doesnt necessarily mean that it will continue to strengthen next week unless eurozone produces better than expected data. Start of the next week will be very quiet due to holidays in u.s and u.k.
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GBP's fall continues. GBP's economic recovery is, again, doubtful. GBP ended week in significant loss against u.s and euro. Investors are starting to loose hope about uk recovery. BOE governor is in favor of additional stepts to strengthen gbp.
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Eur/usd Expectations = Strong Bearish Result = Bullish Tuesday was expected to be bearish for eur/usd, after bullish monday. Fundamentals were also in support of bear moves. Bad data from eurozone and better than expected data from u.s wasnt enough to pull eur/usd. On wednesday it went to weekly highs, near 1.3000 and then fell to end the day with significant loss. I was expecting this strong bearish move to be the start of more downward moves. On thursday we saw another unexpected bullish day. Eurozone fundementals were worse than expected and u.s data was better than expected. On last day of the week, mixed data from eurozone and better than expected data from u.s (especially core durable goods) proved to be incapable of pulling euro. I may be able to give reasons fundamentally and technically after this all has already happened. But I admit that these results werent expected before they happened. USD/JPY Expectations = Strong Bearish or maybe Range-bound Result = Bearish Expected it to be either bearish or rangish throughout the week. It was expected to be bearish due to strong sentiments and technical pressure. It moved as expected. I wasnt expecting u.s data to have any BIG impact on this pair.
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BOJ decided to keep aggressive monetary easing policy unchanged. So usd/jpy is up-ish once again but this bullish trend is unlikely to break any major resistance level. Bearish sentiments are high which is why strong fundamentals are unable to take Usd/jpy above monday's high so far. Existing home sales data will be released in another 10 minutes. It is expected to be better than previous month. It may not affect usd/jpy for long time but it will highly affect eur/usd. Eur/usd has gone to above 1.2950. It is expected to fall from this point.
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GBP also took advantage of usd's fall against jpy. It is currently trading at 1.5225 (57 pips higher than open price). I think price will continue to decline tomorrow because overall trend is strongly bearish. But stay on hold because price has moved up and 1.5197 is again acting as minor support. Wait for it to be broken and then enter short. Tuesday's fundamentals are important
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Today Usd showed weakness against major counterparts. Eur/usd is heading towards friday's high. It is expected to move bearish tomorrow, after touching resistance level of 1.2890 (as shown in image). Expected bearish trend in usd/jpy has started today. It went to as low as 102.07. After that it has made some corrective moves. I am expecting it to drop further tomorrow to 16-th may low of 101.83.
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Eur/usd fall is expected to continue on the first day of the week. It is expected to reach 1.2747 on monday. There is no important news from either eurozone or u.s on monday so there will be no fundamental factor involved in monday's fall or rise. Usd/jpy is currently trading near resistance trend line (see attached image). Stay on hold and wait for a significant downward fall. When that happens, enter. Use trailing SL. I am expecting bearish trend to be very strong.
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Much better than expected u.s data pulled gbp more than expected. It has crossed the major resistance level of 1.5197. Total movement for the day was about -122 pips. I will post possible movements, for the next week, in my next post.
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This has been a great week for usd against all rivals. Yesterday Consumer confidence figure was much better than expected which took eur/usd to 1.2800 and usd/jpy to 103.00. Technically eur/usd was expected to fall but usd/jpy was also expected to fall due to corrective move sentiments.
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Worse than expected data from U.S and better than expected data from eur did not have as high impact as I thought it to have. It moved eur/usd but for very short time and now pair is trading just 10 pip above today's open price. Upward move is limited mainly due to technical bearish pressure. By looking at the current war between fundamentals and technicals, it is clear that pair will most probably reach 1.2747 before making any significant upward move. There was very high sell pressure on usd/jpy and U.S data helped the pair to reverse. Technically, for short term traders, direction is not very clear so stay on hold.
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A bad day for usd which made it a good day for gbp. After touching minor support level of 1.5197 yesterday, gbp/usd bounced back. Bad fundamentals from usd supported this technical move. Pair is now expected to go bullish and may start another bearish trend after reaching near 1.5385. Next support zone is around 1.5034, as written in previous post.
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Eur/usd followed technical indicator expectations. It has touched 1.2844 level so far. Pair is likely to continue to touch 1.2747. Fundamental factors supported this bearish move. Worse than expected GDP data came from euro zone. Eyes are now on U.S fundamentals. If U.S data is weaker than expected then pair may consolidate but upward trend is unlikely. Usd/jpy moved as expected. It is out range-bound movement and resumed its upward trend. On hourly chart, pair is touching support trend line (as seen in image). Market sentiments are still bullish so pair is likely to bounce from current level. Upcoming U.S fundamentals will also play an important part in defining direction.
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Support trend line is broken. Most of the traders, waiting for trend line break, have entered already. Pair will face support at three points. 1- 1.5197 (minor) 2- 1.5034 (Intermediate) 3- 1.4832 (Major)
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Worse than expected ZEW Index figure has weakened euro significantly. eur/usd fell from 1.3020 to 1.2958 (so far). Earlier today, euro gained strength against usd and rose to 1.3027. After that it continued sideways movement till ZEW release. Overall change for today, so far, is -22 pips. Technically, overall trend for eur/usd remains bearish. Usd/jpy showed mixed movements today. No clear direction is seen this week.
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Market has not been very active today. Movements remain range-bound. On monday, eur/usd showed reluctance to go on either side with around 50 pips difference in high and low of today. Lowest point for today remains 1.2941 which was hit after strong U.S retail sales data. Overall pattern, technically, remains bearish and usd is likely to go to 1.2747. Same situation for usd/jpy. Even though bullish movement is more likely to happen but my opinion is to stay on hold and wait for significant breakout.
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After touching resistance zone on Thursday, strong bearish trend in Gbp/Usd started which continued on Friday. Pair crossed support level of 1.5448 and marched towards 23-april low of 1.5197. At this time, On daily chart, pair is trading near support trend line. A break will take it to 23-april low and next support zone is 4-aril low.
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Eur/usd's fall continue sharply since my previous post yesterday and the pair has reached the expected major resistance zone of 24-th april low (1.2956). It has even crossed this level by 20 pips but closed well above it. I am on hold and on monday I will be wait for any significant directional movement. Technically bearish trend looks more probable but to minimize risk, it is better to hold unless we see a clear downward movement. Usd/jpy remained the hot topic for whole week and especially the last day. One month of collective hopes and strength took it to 100 and this time there was no hesitation at 99.87 or any resistance near 100. This has been the highest point since nov-2008. It is likely to continue bullish trend next week.
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This week, expectations were met. Usd/jpy's bullish trend was predicted by many but hope for crossing 100 was not much stronger after a dive below 99.00. Initial jobless claims data and then strong sentiments took it above 101.00. Look at the image, how it has been dodgy since the start of april. Almost same was the movement this week but strong sentiments supported it. At last, eur/usd is out of short-term range-bound movements. Support Trend line was broken broken. It is now trading near major resistance level of 1.2956. Next major resistance lies at 4-april low of 1.2747.
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Better than expected initial jobless claim data from u.s strengthened usd against rivals. Nothing new from eur/usd. Range-bound action continues. Fundamentals + Technicals both are not in support of any trend. Fundamental analysts can grab good pips on daily basis. Technically eur/usd is holding above very strong support line (see attached image). Support trend line is touching at least 7 lows. Price is also touching 100MA. In the recent past, price has crossed 100MA but it wasnt very significant and price retraced. Usd/jpy once again near minor resistance zone of 99.45 - 99.50. Tomorrow Bernarke, Fed chairman, will be speaking and may take this pair to next resistance zone of above 99.90 with minor chance of crossing 100.
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Strong bullish sentiments in the start of week, for usd/jpy, have changed in favor of bearish sentiments. Usd/jpy has moved all day below resistance trend line (see attached image). We can see a break through support trend line but pair successfully regained its position after a couple of hours. At this time it is trading below 99.00 and bearish trend is expected unless it breaks resistance trend line. Incase of eur/usd, range-bound action continues. Fundamentals pushed it above support trend line. Better than expected german data caused strong rally in this pair. Pair is near resistance zone now and bearish trend is expected tomorrow.
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usd pulled gbp and took it below minor resistance level of 1.5470. At this time market sentiments are strongly bullish. Price is expected to touch resistance zone of 1.5610.
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Eur/usd rose today after better than expected german factory data. I waited for significant break in support trend line but that never happened yesterday and now again, I am waiting for it because price is moving near support trend line. Eur/usd is still range bound Usd/jpy reversed from minor resistance zone of 99.35 to 99.45. Uptrend sentiments remains strong.