M.A

Nothing important from U.K today. ISM manufacturing data from U.S is released a few minutes back and it came better than expected. Incase of gbp/usd, now technicals and fundamentals both are favoring bearish move.

Most of the euro data came better than expected which took eur/usd above 1.3050 level. Usd/jpy is trading near 99.75 level and can reach 100 if ISM manufacturing data comes better than expected. We have ISM manufacturing index within 5 minutes and I am expecting high impact on both eur/usd and usd/jpy. I will try to follow the trend to grab some pips.

"To be a successful trader u need to be consistently profitable". I have read similar statements countless times on forums. Consistent profitability assures that a strategy is good enough to beat market in the time period in which a strategy is tested. Even most successful traders loose a percentage of trades. So consistent profitability is usually measured in different ways by different traders. Most popular, IMO, is to check monthly results. But does everyone take end-of-the-month results to measure consistent profitability? Does consistency mean to be profitable every day? Every week? or every month? Or do u measure it by analyzing making "n" sets of trading history and then check if each set is profitable or not? Do u think it depends on trading style?

Most important data from U.K will be interest rate decision on thursday which is expected to remain unchanged. So majors with gbp will continue to move under technical pressure. gbp/usd will most probably be bearish and may find good support at 1.5008. Next major support level is at 1.4832. After reaching near major resistance level of 0.8590, eur/gbp is giving strong indication of reversal. Support level lies at 0.8470.

In coming week, following fundamentals will have significant impact on eur, usd and jpy. On monday, ISM manufacturing index will have high impact on usd. On tuesday, nothing much important and looks like technicals will dominate the market. ADP non-farm employment change and initial jobless claims data will be released on wednesday which will have high impact on usd. Next we have interest rate decision and draghi's speech, on thusday, which will effect eur. On last trading day of the coming week, non-farm payrolls and unemployment rate will play an important part in usd's strengthening or weakening.

Data from U.K remained unchanged and came as forecasted. gbp/usd moved slightly bearish today but overall change is very minor. It found good support at 1.5200 yesterday and then bounced back. No more fundamentals from U.K so pair is expected to end this week slightly above 1.5200 level.

Eur/usd continues slow but steady bullish trend and is trading near 1.3083 resistance level. Market sentiments on long trend remains bearish. This week is expected to end near this current level. At last usd/jpy came out of range-bound movements this week. It is expected to find resistance at 10-june high of 99.28 and then at 100.

U.K data came worse than expected which resulted in weaker gbp against major rivals. Gbp/usd continues to fall today. Just a couple of hours ago, it found support near 2nd june low. Overall trend remains bearish which will most probably take the pair to 1.5140.

It was a lazy day and eur/usd remained slightly bullish today. This bullish trend is mainly a correcitve move in response to yesterday's quick fall. Eur/usd has touched 1.3056 and now reversal is expected. Technically next resistance lies at 1.3083. Major support lies at 1.2945. Even though usd/jpy remained strongly bullish today but it is still trading within current week's 173 pip range. Volatility since the start of june is ended and pair is taking its time to settle down after lots of ups and downs. It is currently uptrend and is expected to face resistance near 98.70.

gbp/usd was unable to touch second resistance line and reversed its direction. It has lost more than 120 pips so far. It is trading near support level is 1.5274. If it crosses this support level, it will head towards next support level of 1.5193.

As expected, eur/usd continues its bearish trend today. Even though U.S gdp data came worse than expected but eur was unable to show any significant trend changing strength against usd. Tomorrow we may see some corrective moves as eur/usd is touchingmoving around minor support of 1.3000. usd/jpy is range bound so far. Day traders can find many opportunities to grab some pips. This range bound movement is expected to continue till the end of this week.

If numbers and levels have very little to do with trading then what else matters the more than them?

No fundamentals from U.K today. Gbp/usd moved almost same as eur/usd but short term bullish trend in gbp/usd is stronger than eur/usd. It has kept itself well above support trend line. Image shows trend line and possible resistance levels.

Eur/usd continued to move within tight range favoring slightly bearish trend. Small retracement was expected from 1.3054 support. At this time short term trend is bullish and pair trading around 1.3125. It may go to 1.3150 before reversing back. Target for the week remains 1.2945 as written in previoust post.

If a trader is able to identify trends, he will consider himself having an edge. It doesnt mean "winning". True edge is only measured after u exit and not before u enter.

No new important fundamentals from U.K today. After more than 200 pip fall within an hour day before yesterday, gbp/usd continued corrective moves yesterday. Today it fell again sharply crossing 1.5400 level. Corrective moves have taken it back above 1.5400 but day traders should call it off because it is not predictable anymore.

Usd continues to strengthen against major counterparts after yesterday;s statement by fed and then by Bernarke. Eur/usd has reached near expected bearish target of 1.3093. We might see some corrective moves and then consolidation above this level. Next major support is around 1.2945 and then at 1.2800. After kuroda's speech and indication that Japan may continue policy easing measures, usd/jpy rose above 98.00. Usd/jpy is now moving above support trend line and just below resistance trend line. Current analysis (as shown in image) shows that retracement is expected but if today it closes above 98.13, we can expect it to go 99.28 on monday. After kuroda's comment I am also in favor of bullish trend in usd/jpy but just to avoid any risk, I will place my entry above 98.13 with tight SL with trailing SL and TP around 99.28.

Today Dollar continued to strengthen after yesterday's interest rate decision and bernarke's speech. Even though the fed statement is very similar to the last time's statement but with addition of one statement that there are no downside risks now. Then bernarke said that tapering in asset purchases is possible this year. Eur/usd is just 4 pips above support level of 1.3177. Pressure for corrective move is there retracement can be seen from this point. In 1 and half and hour jobless claims data will be released which play important part in either bounceback or break through major support level of 1.3177. Next support level lies at 1.2945. I was expecting usd/jpy to touch at least 92.57 level this week but fundamentals played their role and pushed the pair up. It has gained more than 300 pips since yesterday. Resistance level lies at 98.46 and then at 99.28

Yes we do even if this strategy is to hold a stock forever or for one day. There has to be a plan and then implementation of that plan. This whole process makes up a strategy. It is not like you buy stock and then keep it forever in hope that it will go up which may or may not happen even in 10 years. No doubt that position traders have far more chances of winning than scalpers. But it doesn't mean they do not have a strategy.

Because each one has his own trading style. Each one sets his own targets. But we can agree on one point to end this discussion that traders should trade till they feel comfortable.

After Draghi's speech eur strengthened significantly against major rivals. Eur continued to strengthen after ZEW release from Germany. Eur/usd gained more than 70 pips during this period. After that correctives moves started till u.s data. Core CPI was most important release for today which remains unchanged and came as expected. After U.S data, eur weakened sharply as revised housing data was better. Technically eur/usd is staying above support trend line and this trend is expected to continue till interest rate decision and then Bernarke's speech tomorrow. Usd/jpy started today's session with bullish mood and it continued after u.s data. Major resistance level is 95.81 and usd/jpy has touched 95.77. Next major resistance lies at 97.02.

As expected, eur/usd moved quietly today as there were no important events. Hourly chart shows that eur/usd is continuously moving between support and resistance trend line. By looking at chart, it is clear that these range-bound movements may end very soon. Usd/jpy continued corrective move in response to friday's quick fall. Overall trend is not changed and market sentiments remains bearish.

Breakeven --> Profitability --> Consistency --> Paying small expenses from trading --> making a normal living out of trading --> luxurious lifestyle Above is a step by step process once a traders starts trading. First goal is to break-even and not to make a living or not to start thinking if u can pay bills. I dun think we can advise someone to do trading until he has earned enough profit to make a living out it. You are assuming that Glassonion is consistently making an average of 10 pips a day which might be wrong. IMO targets should be set by trader himself. If a trader is comfortable in continue trading then why not?

What would affect eur/usd and usd/jpy? This month has been highly volatile so far and coming week will be most volatile week in this month. On monday we have empire state manufacturing data release from U.S. It may not have any big impact for longterm and technicals will continue to play key role on monday. Then we have trade data from Japan which is also expected to have little impact on usd/jpy. Tuesday is expected to be highly volatile. First we have capacity utilization and inustrial production data from Japan. ZEW index from eurozone and germany will be released earlier after it. Then we have building permits, CPI and housing starts data from U.S at noon. These fundamentals will have very high impact so if you r not a "news-trader" then do not trade until mid-day as fundamentals will dominate the first trading session. Lastly we have trade data, near midnight, from Japan. Wednesday will be another big day for U.S. Most of the investors are actually waiting for this day. First we have FOMC speech about interest rate decision and then Bernarke's press conference. On thursday, initial jobless claims data, existing home sales data, manufacturing index, business conditions and fed employment data will be released from U.S. On last day, nothing important from either eurozne or u.s but BoJ's governor Kuroda's speech will have significant impact on usd/jpy.

This month has been highly volatile as dollar fell aggressively against major counterparts. Technically eur/usd is strongly bullish in short and long term. It is expected to reach resistance level of 1.3407 on monday. Support zone is around 1.3295. Most of the currency traders are targeting usd/jpy which is expected to continue bearish trend. Minor support is seen at 92.57. Ultimate target is 25th feb low of 90.90 as I said in my previous post. We may see some bullish moves after reaching nearing 92.57.