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Larry1234
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Will Quantitative Easing Be Japan's Savior?
Larry1234 replied to Larry1234's topic in Market News & Analysis
I agree with your thought that it will help the Japanese economy but I feel that it will take another 3 to 5 years for the recovery, but in the short run, we have seen that the JPY has depreciated significantly against USD. How do they deal with the currency depreciation ? -
Hi Folks, This thread is being created to discuss the direction of INR - USD Exchange Rate. IMO many of us are trading INR:USD. From trading point of view, how should we take a call on INR:USD rate. In the recent past, we have seen that Indian Rupee (INR) is losing its value against USD. The partially convertible rupee closed at 57.79 per dollar, 1 per cent stronger compared with 58.39 on Tuesday. It hit a record low of 58.98 on Tuesday. Where can we expect INR:USD Rate 1 or 2 months down the line ?????
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IMO, Technical analysis should be preferred while making trading decisions and Fundamental analysis should be preferred while making investment decisions.
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Will Quantitative Easing Be Japan's Savior?
Larry1234 replied to Larry1234's topic in Market News & Analysis
BoJ reportedly aims to stabilize government-bond market Worried about sudden spikes in Japan's government-bond yields, the Bank of Japan is seriously considering measures to bring down market volatility. The Bank of Japan will consider taking further steps next week to curb volatility in the government bond market as sudden spikes in yields threaten to undermine the bank's objective to drag the economy out of two decades of deflation. BOJ may consider offering two-year funds to stem market volatility | Reuters -
Updates on 7th June ECB keeps rates at record low The European Central Bank maintained interest rates at a record low of 0.5% and discussed a variety of policy options if the economy doesn't improve. President Mario Draghi said other options, such as initiatives intended to bolster the asset-backed securities market, are "on the shelf." "There was a common assessment that the changes that have taken place are not sufficiently one-directional as to grant action now," Draghi said. Brazil leans toward rate hike to cool inflation Brazil's Central Bank Monetary Policy Committee released minutes showing concern that "inflation is showing persistence" and promising that the trend will be "reversed." The document's hawkish language left analysts expecting that the central bank is getting ready to raise the benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points. Unemployment claims in the U.S. fall The number of initial applications for jobless benefits in the U.S. fell to 346,000 last week, in line with what most experts anticipated, the Labor Department said. The four-week rolling average -- which most economists consider a more accurate picture of the U.S. labor market -- rose 4,500, to 352,500. The overall percentage of adults who have a job remains close to its lowest level in 30 years. Analysis: U.S.-China summit could benefit both countries The U.S. and China have a real opportunity to recast their relationship to be more constructive and mutually beneficial if Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Barack Obama are willing to deal with some immediate points of conflict at their upcoming summit. "Mr. Xi needs to send a signal that cybertheft will not be tolerated," the magazine notes. "Mr. Obama needs to push to lift some [u.S. export] restrictions."
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Updates on 6th June Australian dollar hits lowest level since September 2010 The Australian dollar has reached its lowest value in 2½ years, amid low interest rates and disappointing economic data. Shortly after markets opened Thursday, Australia's dollar fell below 95 U.S. cents and went on to reach an intraday low of 94.34 U.S. cents. Japan bars price cutting tied to consumption-tax hikes The Japanese parliament is banning stores from advertising prices discounted to compensate for increases in consumption tax, scheduled to take effect in 2014 and 2015. The law requires retailers to raise prices to reflect the tax hikes. Worker productivity and private payroll gain modestly U.S. worker productivity edged up in the first quarter, and the private sector added employees last month. However, improvement for both indicators is slowing. The Labor Department says productivity rose at a 0.5% seasonally adjusted annual rate in Q1. Payroll service ADP says private employers added 135,000 jobs in May, well below the monthly average of 200,000 between November and February. Revised FHA rule means bigger payments for home buyers A U.S. Federal Housing Administration rule that took effect this week will increase monthly payments of people who rely on FHA-insured mortgages to buy homes. The rule lengthens the period during which borrowers must pay premiums for their mortgage insurance. The FHA backs nearly 14% of the residential-mortgage market.
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Option strategies for the month of June 2013 Fold are invited to discuss the appropriate option strategies to be adopted for the month June 13 to earn arbitrage or risk less profit ?
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Updates on 5th June U.S. bans import of some Apple products The U.S. International Trade Commission has banned some older versions of the iPhone and the iPad from being imported. Apple plans to appeal the decision, which says the devices violate a Samsung Electronics patent. China relaxes controls to boost foreign investment The Chinese Commerce Ministry says the government is implementing regulatory and legal reform to encourage more foreign investment. Measures include tougher protection of intellectual property and foreign firms' ability to participate in Chinese research and development. Australian central bank keeps rate steady Australia's central bank elected to leave its cash rate at 2.75%. The record low rate appears to be succeeding in driving investment, although the bank in a statement did acknowledge that the Australian dollar "remains high" in value in light of sluggish exports. Rising imports drive up U.S. trade deficit The trade deficit increased by 8.5% between March and April, to $40.3 billion, as imports accelerated faster than export growth, the Commerce Department says. Americans bought more foreign cars, cellphones and other consumer products, boosting imports by 2.4%. Exports expanded 1.2% amid weak demand.
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SEC temporarily suspends trading of dozens of companies The Securities and Exchange Commission has suspended trading of Fidelity First Financial, Oxford Capital and 59 other empty shell companies until June 14, saying there are questions about their operating status. SEC Suspends Trading in 61 Empty Shell Companies in Second Largest Suspension Ever - WSJ.com
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Updates on 4th June Chinese companies reportedly consider returning to U.S. IPO market Chinese companies are deciding whether to go public on U.S. stock exchanges, which would be the first such move since 2011. Alibaba Group Holding is widely believed to be preparing an initial public offering that would be valued in the billions of dollars and is evaluating whether to launch its offering in New York, Hong Kong or elsewhere. U.S. manufacturing hits lowest level in 4 years Industrial activity stopped rebounding in May, posting its first decline in six months and dropping to its lowest level in almost four years, according the Institute for Supply Management's index of factory activity. The index fell to 49, from 50.7 in April, on a scale in which anything below 50 indicates contraction. Eurozone manufacturing edges toward growth, data show The eurozone's industrial sector is steadily moving toward expansion, according to purchasing managers indexes for manufacturing. Industrial activity rose to 48.3 in May, from 47.8 in April, putting May's reading at the highest level in 15 months. Record exports drive Spain's economic rebound Spanish businesses are building a path out of recession based on exports, as they face the worst economy in more than 30 years of democracy. Last year, exports reached a record $291 billion. The EU expects Spanish exports to increase 4.1% this year, nearly double the anticipated EU average.
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Fundamental Analysis - Relative Valuation / DCF Valuation
Larry1234 replied to Larry1234's topic in Market News & Analysis
Intrinsic value is important for an investor but it is not important for a trader. There could be various reasons for the same. One possible reason can be time horizon for which they are making investments. Lets discuss the possible reasons for this. -
Hello Option Tiger, Thanks a lot for sharing the materials on this thread. It's really useful. As I have already studied various books on Option Greeks so I am theoretically aware of these concepts. The only thing is I am not sure on how to use them practically.
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China Property Prices Continue To Rise In May China's policies aimed at cooling off the property market are ineffective. Prices in 100 cities rose 6.9% in May, after climbing 5.34% in April, according to property researcher SouFun Holdings. "Given rising land prices, insufficient supply in hot cities and expectation of a loosened monetary stance, expectations of further housing price rises remains strong," the company said. China?s May SouFun Home Prices Jump, Defying Tightened Curbs - Bloomberg
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Updates on 2nd June 13 China becomes Iraq's biggest oil customer Iraq became one of the world's largest oil-producing countries after the U.S. invasion in 2003, and China's has become its top customer. China buys almost 1.5 million barrels a day from Iraq, nearly half of its production, and is working on deals to expand that volume. Anti-government protests shake Turkish markets Despite a decade of impressive economic growth, Turkey's financial markets are under pressure from violent demonstrations nationwide. Last week, the yield on the 10-year Turkish bond jumped 40 basis points, and the lira fell to a 17-month low against the U.S. dollar. Eurozone appears set to recover, ECB's Draghi says European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said the euro zone economy appears to be set for a recovery this year. "The economic situation in the euro area remains challenging but there are a few signs of a possible stabilization, and our baseline scenario continues to be one of a very gradual recovery starting in the latter part of this year. U.S. consumer spending declines As consumers' income growth disappeared, they cut spending in April at the sharpest rate in nearly a year. The Commerce Department said seasonally adjusted consumer spending dropped 0.2%. The department also said that the Income growth was flat.
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Will Quantitative Easing Be Japan's Savior?
Larry1234 replied to Larry1234's topic in Market News & Analysis
Appreciate your response to this thread. IMO with more Yen in the market, there is a high probability that Yen Carry Trade can be expected in near future. -
Employment Probably Grew at Steady Pace: U.S. Economy Preview Employers in the U.S. added as many jobs in May as they did the month before, showing the world’s largest economy is weathering the effects of higher taxes and government spending cuts. U.S. Stocks Post First Two-Week Decline Since November U.S. stocks fell for the week, sending the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index to its first back-to-back decline since November, as investors speculated the Federal Reserve will consider scaling back stimulus efforts. Dollar Climbs on Speculation Fed to Taper Stimulus; Rand Slides The dollar gained versus all of its 16 most-traded peers for the first month since 2011 as speculation grew that stronger U.S. economic data will spur the Federal Reserve to reduce its unprecedented monetary stimulus.
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China launches trading platform for smaller businesses China opened an over-the-counter equity-trading platform designed to make it easier for small and midsize businesses to raise capital. On its first day, the Qianhai Equity Exchange in Shenzhen listed 1,200 companies, immediately making it the biggest among regional financial markets. Existing-home sales increase in U.S. In April, sales of previously owned homes reached a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.97 million, the highest level in 3½ years, the National Association of Realtors says. During the past year, signed contracts, which usually result in a completed sale in one or two months, have increased 10.3%, the trade group says. Japan's rising industrial production calms investors A stronger-than-anticipated increase in Japanese factory output has calmed investors, after a sell-off sent the Nikkei 225 index falling 5.2% on Thursday. Between March and April, industrial production grew 1.7%. Exports showed signs of recovery last month but remained below the April 2012 level.
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IMF scales back growth forecast for China The IMF cut its forecast for Chinese economic growth this year and in 2014 to 7.75%. In April, the IMF projected 8% growth this year and 8.2% in 2014. The IMF has recommended that China implement policy reform to make its economy more sustainable. Europe's transaction tax alarms bond-market participants Concerns are rising about Europe's proposal to tax financial transactions, including debt. Taxes on debt are traditionally levied on issuance, but Europe plans to tax trading on secondary markets. Germany says youth unemployment could tear Europe apart German Finance Minister said that failure to deal with skyrocketing unemployment among young workers threatens to tear Europe apart and could spark a revolution. The youth employment crisis will be a central theme of a June EU leaders' summit, and German Chancellor Angela Merkel has invited EU labour ministers to a conference in Berlin on July 3.
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More updates Brazil posts record current-account deficit for April The Brazilian current-account deficit hit $8.318 billion last month, the biggest April amount since 1980. Much of the deficit came from falling commodity prices and a soaring bill for imported fuel. Also, foreign companies pulled more profit out of Brazil. Japan remains world's biggest creditor nation In 2012, Japan was the world's No. 1 creditor nation, a title it has held for 22 years. China and Germany were next in the ranking. Analysts are uncertain whether Japan will hold the title much longer. Rate-cut speculation sends yield on Indian 10-year bond falling The yield on India's 10-year bond fell to its lowest level since 2009 as bond buyers speculated that the RBI is getting ready to lower interest rates for the fourth time this year. The yield on India's 8.15% bond maturing in around 10 years fell to 7.33%. Germany drops austerity and embraces eurozone economic stimulus Germany abandoned calls for austerity and is backing plans to spend billions on revitalizing the economies in Southern Europe. Germany plans to dramatically expand lending and investing in financially stressed eurozone countries, using its own capital, rather than waiting for the European Commission to take the lead. Germany's efforts will first focus on Spain.
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I guess the cost of living in most of Asian countries is less compared to west. I guess Singapore is relatively costlier than other asian countries.
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Suiya, Options greeks are used to frame delta neutral hedging strategy. Generally portfolio managers use these greeks to frame such a strategy. I am not a portfolio manager. But I am interested to know more usefulness of these greeks from the traders or investor or portfolio managers, regarding how and when they use the same and cost benefit analysis of the same
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Will Quantitative Easing Be Japan's Savior?
Larry1234 replied to Larry1234's topic in Market News & Analysis
Mr. Kuroda announced that he will double Japan's monetary base. Investors have been buying stocks enthusiastically ever since. Which is why our Trade of the Decade - Buy Japanese Stocks, Sell Japanese Bonds - looks so good. Stocks have gone up. Bonds have gone down. Does this mean that Japan's troubles are behind it? Not at all. It only means that, when you've got a reckless central banker, stocks are a better buy than bonds. Stocks will rise with inflation, sometimes ahead of it...sometimes behind it. Bonds will always go in one direction - down. Japan's real crisis is still ahead. That's what yesterday's big sell off signals - trouble. And there's more trouble is coming for the UK, the US and Europe too. Most likely, they'll want to follow Japan as it heads for disaster. The new head of the Bank of England, Mark Carney, has just proposed that his bank imitate the rapid money-printing policies of the Bank of Japan. -
Updates Housing and employment data point to strengthening U.S. economy Labor and housing data suggest the economy is slowly but steadily recovering. The Labor Department said initial jobless claims last week decreased 23,000, to a seasonally adjusted 340,000. The Commerce Department said sales of new single-family homes increased 2.3% in April. Survey finds German exporters increasingly pessimistic Export-dependent companies in Germany are much less optimistic than they were only a short time ago, according to a survey by the Association of German Chambers of Commerce and Industry. The group has downgraded its forecast for economic expansion this year to 0.3%, from 0.7%. Eurozone consumer confidence keeps climbing Consumer sentiment in the euro zone has increased for the sixth consecutive month, reaching a 10-month high in May. Analysis: ECB and Fed head in different directions The European Central Bank, facing economic weakness, is considering adding policies. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve is looking into reining in stimulus as the U.S. economy slowly improves. The central banks' efforts highlight diverging fortunes in Europe and the U.S.
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Some things to remember amid the volatility of the gold price... When volatility prevails in the gold market, I love seeing so many different opinions because it promotes critical thinking and healthy markets, writes Frank Holmes, CEO and chief investment officer of US Global Investors. But because gold is unlike any other commodity, many perspectives can be extreme, such as "golden Freud" who take pleasure in gold bugs' pain. With this in mind, here are four facts to remember about gold that should help neutralize those extreme bullish and bearish views. Please check the link given below for more info - Gold Bullion: 4 Fundamental Facts | Gold News
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The world's second largest economy has a debt problem China's credit boom has saddled unworthy businesses with large loans, fueled the country's shadow banking system and put local governments on the hook for billions. According to Swiss Bank UBS, China's central government debt was equal to 15% of the economy at the end of 2012. That number spikes to 55% when debt racked up by local governments and agencies is included. If corporate and household debt is also counted, China's total debt load balloons to more than 200% of gross domestic product. Compared to other developing economies, China is at the top of the range. "Should we worry about China's debt problem?" Analysts worry that credit is becoming inefficient, increasingly dominated by unregulated lenders, and reaching a scale where it could sap growth if central government is forced to stand behind defaulting local governments or agencies.