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Larry1234

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Everything posted by Larry1234

  1. Larry1234
    Higher than expected job data in US has pulled down gold prices in international market as dollar strengthened. However strong dollar has resulted in Indian rupee quoted at sharply lower and was traded at around Rs 61 on DGCX indian rupee-USD futures.
  2. Larry1234
    IMO the second comings for Gold is gonna to be start soon. Gold must be getting close to a bottom. No one has anything nice to say about it. The pundits and prognosticators are more pessimistic than in any time in recorded history. Gold miners are getting wiped out. There's 'More Carnage Coming'. If you thought things have been ugly for gold, then you haven't paid attention to the gold miners, which have just been decimated. As the price of gold declines further, gold will fall below the cost of production for these companies, resulting in years of negative cash flow. Gold has declined by 37% from its highs in 2011. Therefore, I believe the myth that gold is a low risk "store of value" has been exposed for what it is to the latest generation of investors. Now, I fear that as understandably dissatisfied investors exit the market, selling could beget selling and send the gold price well below the cost of production. IMO this risk is not discounted in gold equities valuations. I believe an asset that declines by 37% in value doesn't qualify as a "safe haven" or "store of value." And, it never should have. Gold is a commodity whose price can rise or fall. In conclusion, while I'd like to believe the carnage in the group is over. With short reserve lives, rising costs, rising political risks and a stagnant commodity price, I believe an argument could be made that gold equities should trade at valuation discounts to other resource equities. Instead, they continue to garner valuation premiums. Surely, we must be getting close to a Second Coming...another great opportunity in gold.
  3. Larry1234
    Did you mean FED should give loan directly to individuals ? very funny:confused::rofl:
  4. Larry1234
    Hello Tradeshah, I do not trade in INR / USD. I am a Finance Consultant and provide tips to export oriented companies on how to deal with their foreign exchange risk and also helps them in formulating their foreign exchange hedging strategies.
  5. Larry1234
    Hello Henry, The problem Japan is facing now is deflation and at the same time their population is also ageing. QE by BOJ will help them in creating inflation in their economy and at the same time, it would lead to depreciation of their currency, which means that their exports will be more competitive compared to other Asian and export oriented countries. More profits on exports will lead to more production in the economy, which in turn creates more job. So QE by BoJ will help in recovering Japanese economy.
  6. Larry1234
    How do we determine the exchange ratio between Bitcoins and Dollar ?
  7. Larry1234
    You can buy Treasury Inflation - Protected Securities (TIPS) to hedge the inflation. For more info, check below link - Treasury Inflation Protected Securities (TIPS) Definition | Investopedia
  8. Larry1234
    Printing money is not at all a solution to increase the inflation, and this is what Japan is doing now and due to this, their currency (Yen) has been depreciated more than 20% which makes imports costlier and exports competitive.
  9. Larry1234
    I guess very few TL members follow or trade in INR USD Currency. This thread is created to get the TL members view on the INR USD Currency from both ling term and short term (trading) point of view. Anyone out there for INR USD ????
  10. Larry1234
    Thank You Patuca. This seems to be a complete analysis on why an increase in Fed assets will lead to an increase in Gold price. Probably this is the good time to make an investment in Gold and the time horizon for the same should be 5-6 years.
  11. Larry1234
    IMO we should definitely have a strategy to reduce our losses.
  12. Larry1234
    I would rather say Quantitative Easing (QE) can be one of the factor which will help S&P 500 index to touch a new higher, may be couple of years down the line. (Fundamental point of view on the market).
  13. Larry1234
    So you agree on my belief that increase in Fed assets will lead to increase in the gold price, may be double five years down the line.
  14. Larry1234
    It is absolutely correct on your part that Gold prices have been falling for 2 years and at the same time Assets on the fed balance have increased over the last 2 years and continue to increase. But if you take the long term horizon (15 - 20 years), it can be easily concluded that there is a positive relationship between the Gold price and the assets on the Fed balance sheet. Whenever we try to find out the relationship, we always prefer to take the longer term horizon to reduce the impact of short term fluctuations.
  15. Larry1234
    Hi Folks, This thread is created to discuss the expected value of gold 5 years down the line. I have got a very interesting questing on my mind so I have decided to share the same with you with the help TL. Will gold prices double five years from now ? What do you think ? Why? Shouldn't stocks be flying? Shouldn't gold be closing over $1,800...and on its way to the moon? This was on the day after the Fed announced recently the biggest program of money-printing ever undertaken by any government in history. Forty billion dollars per month. Maybe forever. Or at least until the presidential election. If it continues, that's $480 billion per year. The Federal Reserve website shows current assets of $2.8 trillion. Add nearly $500 billion per year...and it will take scarcely 5 years to double the Fed's assets, which are the foundation of America's money supply. So far, gold has tracked the increase in Fed assets. Broadly, both doubled over the last five years. Does this mean the price of gold will double five years from now?
  16. Larry1234
    Hello, Thanks a lot for sharing the same. Are you also aware of the time horizon for VALE, recommended by Jim Cramer ?
  17. Larry1234
    Hello Urma, Various option strategies can be framed using different combinations of Call, Puts and Futures, with different and similar strike price and with different and similar time to expiration. These strategies can be framed in such a that we can easily minimize our loss, maximize our profit which is not possible in equity investment. That is why I have mentioned in my earlier post that "Its really easy to make money using option strategies"
  18. Larry1234
    We know that the rupee is at a record low, our natural inclination is to assume that the rupee is a very weak currency. But, I am gonna to explain that this is misleading. Lets see why this is misleading. In the long term, currency values reflect relative inflation. The more inflation a country has the weaker its currency becomes. Based on this logic, what should we expect to happen to the value of the rupee against the dollar over time? Over the last 10 years, US inflation has averaged around 2%, while Indian inflation has averaged 8%. This means that every year, the rupee's value, in purchasing power terms, is lower by 6% relative to the US dollar. So, we expect that the rupee should depreciate against the dollar by an average of 6% per year solely due to inflation. Given this metric, we can compare actual currency performance to what is expected purely due to inflation. Over the last 10 years, taking into account the rupee's recent decline, the rupee has fallen by a little less than 30% against the dollar. This translates into an average depreciation of 3% per year and this is significantly less than what is implied by the difference in inflation rates between India and the US. It means that in real terms, the rupee has become more valuable against the dollar in the last decade. This is due to strong economic performance and high growth rates for most of the decade.
  19. Larry1234
    Hey Saak, I recently came to know that Indian Finance Minister have taken actions to strengthen the currency. I believe INR is gonna to be appreciate against USD and it might reach to 55 in couple of months down the line.
  20. Larry1234
    I recently came to know that at least five top currency traders and economists say the probability of the rupee will fall to 60 to the US dollar is higher than it will move towards 50 with record foreign fund flows of the last eight months tapering off. This is largely on account of the boost in sentiment following a rash of reforms failing to translate into real business activity.
  21. Larry1234
    May be because we want individual opinion of the TL Member about the topic to be discussed in the thread, not the reports published by Corporates which can be easily accessed on google.
  22. Larry1234
    China Vanke chairman Wang Shi said the mainland's property market faces the risk of a "bubble", reiterating concerns the developer raised three months ago. The bubble is not "light", Wang said at a conference in Shanghai yesterday. "If the bubble lasts, it will be dangerous." Wang said in a March CBS broadcast of the 60 Minutes news programme (earlier discussed on this thread) that the housing bubble could spell "disaster" for China's real estate market and that debt held by developers is a serious problem. He referred to "ghost towns" where homes are built and left unoccupied, while as much as 60 per cent of other housing projects in other cities were snapped up the first day they were put up for sale. The developer has carved out a market niche for itself by focusing on smaller homes that appeal to the mass market, helping boost its sales. I also feel that if the bubbles are not controlled, the result will be catastrophic but when the bubble will burst, that is uncertain. It might be a month, 3 three or 12 months, we don't know.
  23. Larry1234
    Strategies for the month of June 2013 We have passed almost half of the month. Traders, aren't you interested in discussing the strategies for US market to maximize the profit. What are the Traders view on the month end S&P 500 Index and any particular stock ? Lets make this thread alive by discussing more on S&P 500 and more on stocks ...
  24. Larry1234
    Hi Option Tiger, I have created a thread long back regarding the usefulness of Option Greeks and its importance in option trading. The link for the thread is - http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/options-trading-laboratory/15473-usefulness-option-greeks.html For more on option greeks, you can go through the same.
  25. Larry1234
    I will definitely use Technical analysis for trading in FOREX and will use Fundamental analysis if I want to make an investment (for more than 12 months) into Equities or Bonds.
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