Welcome to the new Traders Laboratory! Please bear with us as we finish the migration over the next few days. If you find any issues, want to leave feedback, get in touch with us, or offer suggestions please post to the Support forum here.
Vinayak
-
Content Count
236 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Everything posted by Vinayak
-
It does seem that more easing could be expected in Japan. Abenomics has held sway for quite some time. I am watching this situation closely.
-
Some Fundamentals There has been a round of fiscal easing that was expected. The central banks are working hard the world over, but there is still a lot to do. The ECB has lowered its rates copying US policy. The EU economy has stabilized, but there will be some weakness in the Euro in the near term.
-
Bank of Israel Cuts Interest Rate to 1.5% in Surprise Move US April Revenue Sales Increase 0.1%; Excluding Autos Fall 0.1%
-
Effects of Abenomics The Japanese Yen is now 101.54 to the US dollar and many are wondering how long this trend is going to last. I am here to tell you that we are not heading for 110. The main reason why the Yen will not decline further is diplomacy. The Japanese Economics Minister Akira Amari has stated that the government's goal is not to manipulate the currency, but just as a means to counter deflation. This is apt at a time when Japan's big trading partners are not too pleased about the Yen sliding. Moreover, aggressive monetary policy by the Bank of Japan could strengthen the JPY and there is also the chance for the Fed to start printing more money if the US economy weakens. This would mean that the dollar would fall further deteriorating the USD/JPY currency pair. A third reason for Japan to not allow the JPY to slide further is to control the escalating import costs. Japan's relies a lot on fossil fuels that are imported. Rising energy costs can curtail consumer spending and this will put a big strain on the Japanese economy. A softening Yen will then be considered a negative thing. A lot of market analysts foresee the Yen staying at 100 or just below for 2013 and there is a good reason that this could hold true.
-
I really enjoy reading your articles Rande. There is nothing more important in successful trading than a great mental approach. The mind is the most powerful tool we have as traders.
-
Yen Weakens to 100 Per Dollar for the First Time in Four Years WATCH THIS THREAD FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.
-
Investing in small and mid cap stocks may be a good idea because traders are then not competing for information against massive mutual funds and hedge funds that do everything they can to win by often cheating the system (manipulative trading, high frequency trading, insider trading, special access to secondaries, etc). The key is I think to invest in long-term demographic trends that you believe in. Interestingly, I have found that microcaps tend to outperform large caps over the long haul.
-
The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Level in US Hovered Last Week Near Five-Year High
-
Bank of England Keeps Benchmark Interest Rate at 0.50%; Holds Asset Purchase Plan at 375 Bln Pounds There have some broad improvements in the business sentiment and there is also the fact that the stock markets are heading to record highs. It seems like the UK is enjoying similar positive economic data like across the pond in the US with economic confidence being better than expected and housing prices at a three-year high. The BOE rate staying the same comes at a time when the ECB decided to cut its rate to 0.50% from 0.75% as ECB President Mario Draghi was echoing the need to bolster growth in the Euro zone. US Weekly Initial Jobless Claims Fell 4,000 Last Week to 323,000 a Five-Year Low This is great news as economists polled by MarketWatch had expected initial claims to increase a little to to 335,000. This could drive the US indices and the some of the large cap US equities to new highs.
-
JP Morgan Received 'Wells-Type' Notice from FERC on Energy Probe JP Morgan Said to Name Erik Bisso to Run Chief Investment Office in North America German March Industrial Output Rises 1.2% Versus Estimated 0.1% Drop Toyota Forecasts Annual Profit toRise 42% to 1.37 tln Yen vs 1.42 Tln Yen Estimate China's CNPC Said in Talks to Buy Brazil's Barra for About $2B German Factory Orders Unexpectedly Jump in Sign of Recovery Wal-Mart Said to Focus on Two Internal Choices to Succeed CEO
-
Source: Investoraide Facebook (FB) seems to be rather promising after all. I must say I had my qualms about the social network but it has reaped its rewards in making the conscientious effort to step up its mobile ad business. EPS missed estimates by just a penny and overall the earnings call was positive for FB investors.
-
US economy: Like a see-saw! Source: Investoraide If you've been looking at the US economic indicators, you can glean that they have been rather up and down. Wall Street takes a big plunge and then we have the S&P and the Dow hitting record highs at Friday's close. I know I've been highlighting the positive macro data and being the objective poster that I am I thought I'd take you through some of the negative stuff as well. Private jobs increased by the smallest margin in seven months according to the April ADP survey. Moreover, the Institute of Supply Management enlightens us that manufacturing sector growth is slowing and could very well start contracting. There was also the Commerce Department with its report that construction spending has fallen a level not seen since last August. Even though consumer spending and incomes were up, MasterCard sales gave an interesting insight: US credit card activity is down significantly. Moreover, Visa's quarterly credit card activity has also fallen sharply. There was also domestic auto sales that is at a 6-month low. Policymakers at the Fed are looking at revising their $85B bond buying program depending on the US economic outlook.
-
How has Abenomics been doing so far? Japan's global brand names have been benefitting greatly from the devaluation of the Yen. There is Toyota that will have its earnings release on Wednesday that is going to be extremely good. Demand is on the rise in North America for the car maker despite the recent airbag defects. Sony is expected to report its first annual profit in 5 years, but this is a little misleading. The major reason for this will be the billion-dollar sale of its headquarters in NYC. As much as exports have picked up due to Abenomics, they could be much better. One has to take into account the slow demand from the stabilizing EU which has hurt exports. In terms of its competition with neighboring China, there has been much made of the fact that economists feel that Chinese exporters have exaggerated data and this is why the February numbers were better than expected. Still, Japan has been losing its grip over the last two decades. Southeast Asia is the fast growing region with much to offer investors. Japan is hedging a lot of its bets on the successful outcome of Abenomics.
-
How has Abenomics been doing so far? Japan's global brand names have been benefitting greatly from the devaluation of the Yen. There is Toyota that will have its earnings release on Wednesday that is going to be extremely good. Demand is on the rise in North America for the car maker despite the recent airbag defects. Sony is expected to report its first annual profit in 5 years, but this is a little misleading. The major reason for this will be the billion-dollar sale of its headquarters in NYC. As much as exports have picked up due to Abenomics, they could be much better. One has to take into account the slow demand from the stabilizing EU which has hurt exports. In terms of its competition with neighboring China, there has been much made of the fact that economists feel that Chinese exporters have exaggerated data and this is why the February numbers were better than expected. Still, Japan has been losing its grip over the last two decades. Southeast Asia is the fast growing region with much to offer investors. Japan is hedging a lot of its bets on the successful outcome of Abenomics.
-
Malaysian Stocks Surge With Ringgit as Premier Najib Wins Election TPG Capital, Warburg Pincus Said to Explore Sale or IPO of Luxury Retailer Neiman Marcus Berkshire Hathaway Q1 Operating EPS Beats Estimates Euro-Area Economy Headed for 2-Year Slump as EU Lowers Forecast
-
Crude Oil Price Decline Crude Oil prices in the world markets have fallen in April in comparison to how they were in March. The decline of the average price of crude oil has been as much as $6.39 according to various reports. At the London Brent, the price of a barrel of crude oil fell $6.11 in April in comparison to the previous month.
-
Question: What is "Supply" with regards to the stock market? Answer: It's the total number of shares outstanding. And what is "Demand"? It's the need and wants to buy shares by investors. Right now, supply is falling. This is both a good thing and a bad thing. The good part is that firms have huge profit margins and are using their excess cash to buy back shares. Shares outstanding is declining. When companies with $100 billion in cash like Apple buy back shares, this brings down supply for the big institutional investors, etc. Another advantage: When supply decreases, price increases. This is why the stock market right now is at all-time highs.
-
AIG Profit Falls 31% to $2.21B After CEO Shrinks Insurer #AIG #profits #earnings LinkedIn Reports Q1 Adj. EPS $0.45, Est. $0.31; Rev. of $324.7M Beating Est. of $318.2M #LinkedIn #tech #earnings I included hash tags to gain more traction!
-
Gold has been rising after the European Central Bank (ECB) made the decision to cut the interest rate to 0.5% after it stayed 0.75% for 10 months. Additionally, ECB President Mario Draghi stated that the central bank is technically ready for negative deposit rates. Investors are now going to pour more money on the precious metal since the interest rates are lower. There has already been an increased demand for the yellow metal after prices fell.
-
US equities are climbing rapidly. The S&P has added 15 points so far and the Dow has soared 125 points already. There has a huge amount of positive US macro data recently starting with the Consumer Spending for March rising 0.2%. Additionally, incomes rose 0.2%. Then Pending Home Sales for rose 1.5% for March since February. This week has been even better with jobless claims decline being responsible for the US indices soaring. http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/market-analysis/15950-bloomberg-updates-7.html#post179349 I fully agree that the S&P will be higher in 5 years, but it will take some extensive analysis to substantiate that claim. One thing I can be sure of is that the S&P will be at a higher level on June 1, 2013.
-
Intel Board Elects COO Brian Krzanich as CEO, Succeeding Paul Otellini ECB Cuts Benchmark Interest Rate to 0.50% ECB Deposit Facility Rate Unchanged at Zero Percent ECB Lowers Marginal Lending Rate to 1% From 1.5% France Sells 10-Year Debt at Record-Low Average Yield of 1.81% ING U.S. Prices 65.2M Shares at $19.5 Each in IPO Stoxx 600 Rose For 11th Month in Longest Streak Since 1997 US April Consumer Confidence Index Rises To 68.1 from 61.9 Chicago Business Barometer Decreased to 49 in April from 52.4 Google Offers to Change Search Page to Settle EU Antitrust Probe
-
US Stocks advance at the open on strong jobless claims report and ECB rate cut. Dow adds 102 points; S&P adds 14 points The job market is continuing to improve with jobless claims dropping to 324K which leaves the number at a 5-year low. This has gone against the expectations of economists and it has driven the US indices to record highs early and I fully expect the bullish trend to continue. What is more, even the four-week moving average that is checked to offset the volatility has also declined. There will be more positive economic data out on Friday with the Labor Department scheduled to release a monthly jobs report which market analysts expect will show that the US economy added 140,000 jobs in the month of April which is a big climb from the March 88,000 figure. Time for some calls on the US indices and to buy a few large cap stocks and Dow Stocks.
-
Thanks for sharing that Ammeo. But could you possibly give me a link to this Citi report?
-
Gold Price Recovery Dampens Demand The gold price recovery is interestingly not carrying over into the gold producing stocks. In spite of gold’s jump their profits have not been showing this. The gold producer GoldCorp's stock rose last week and this attracted a lot of attention from investors. Nonetheless, it is still below the 30bar EMA and unfortunately for bullish investors, it is on a downtrend. How to Trade the Gold Recovery I will be placing puts on GoldCorp and I am looking at any point above $29 as an entry for an end of the week expiration.
-
Obama Said to Choose Congressman Mel Watt for Fannie Mae Regulator China Manufacturing Expands at Weaker Pace as Economy Grows ADP Employer Services Says the US Added 119,000 Jobs in April, Estimates were for a Gain of 150,000 Treasury Says It May Gradually Decrease Coupon Auction Sizes Fed Says It's 'Prepared to Increase or Reduce' Purchases; Maintains $85B Monthly Pace of Bond Buying Facebook Q1 Rev. of $1.46B, Est. $1.44B; Q1 Monthly Active Users Up 23% ING US Prices 65.2M Shares at $19.5 Each in IPO