alleyb

my 2 cents worth and being whom I am I think that I am qualified to comment on JPJ even though I do not know the Gentleman personally but I have a respect for what he is doing based entirely from feedback that I have received from some of his students. Frankly the cost of attending JPJ is minimal especially as it is a life time support. The issue is the noise/chatter that the attendees create. If you can discern the wood for the trees and block this noise out then the teaching materials that JPJ has and promotes are worth every bit the cost. If you can learn even a simplistic setup from him then the cost is minimal. His style is not to everyone's liking but then why would you expect that. It is what it is and the issue is perhaps that his focus is narrow in that he only talks the ES. Curious when you consider that he was a bond local orignally. As for style surely the whole point about any learning is that you take what you can from the teacher and take other information from elsewhere to then marry it up and create something that is personal. The point being is not to create a mini-me but to create something that is your own. As Steidlmayer wrote and forgive me if I paraphrase and/or truncate a little: I quote from the original CBOT handbook from 1984.(PS I am on the hunt for any other MP documentation that anyone might have for the purpose of archiving it - I already have the largest collection of MP material both ancient and modern in one place but would be obliged if anyone can help with additional material) - I quote from the manual that was the forerunner to the CBOT Handbook which you can currently download from the CBOT website "Market understanding time you plus your trading method equals results" "In order to recognize opportunity, to respond appropriately and to make timely adjustments as you go, you need to know what the market is doing and under what conditions. The difference between knowing and guessing is vital." "When this market understanding is combined with a personal trading method, traders anywhere in the world have an opportunity to achieve superior results." . lastly if you think that $1200 is expensive then perhaps you should check out how much a college education costs and do the maths. Consider that if you subscribe how many trades you would have to do to recoup the cost. Trading is a business and one should look at tiome and money in vs reward out. Now I have little interest in promoting anyone but me but frankly I think that JPJ offers outstanding value

James. Different strokes for different markets. The Nikkei does not actually have that many genuine one time frame or late running profile. The Dow for example when it gets into such a move it is not unusual for it to move 100 points. You could start to adjust an exit for any number of styles. EG an inside 15 minute bar and exit on break against the direction, a 5 minute bar that breaks and/or closes below the low/high (depending on upmove/downmove) of the high / closes above the high of the low bar. The whole point about any trade but especially one that is correctly identyfied as a one time frame profile is to allow sufficient time for the market to breathe (rather than being swayed by the 5 minute voodoo chart). You will always know when you are overstaying your welcome in the market by the lack of development. Slightly out of context I assume you trade the Singapore Nikkei 225 contract? or do you really play with fire in Osaka?

further on one time frame market: and as to when to get out: you stay until you get a break of rotation. The question as to when to get IN then that is more difficult to explain because the one time frame market is a trending market and one has to foresake trade location to be on board a trending market. By inference a one time frame market is driven by those who have the wrong position or who are trying to fade the move who constantly place their stop just above the currrent dynamic high/low and so as each new high/low is attained so it trips further stop loss orders and creates and fuels the move

a simple definition of a one time frame market is constantly moving in one direction with no break of trend. IE higher lows higher highs or lower highs lower lows. IE no break of rotation of a previous time period

hopefully these are the charts for bonds I wished to post on my prior comments The first is a Daily Profile The 2nd is the start of a quarterly profile the 3rd is a long Bond yield chart And before anyone tells me to re-size, zoom-in etc, please give me a chance to become litterate first

the difference between now and Feb is that the de-leveraging shows that clearly the funds whoever the funds may be whether Banks or Hedge Funds were clearly liquid then and could afford to buy and became more than 100% invested so that this time they were forced to sell. Sell meant sell anything liquid for they be stuck in the illiquid stuff whether that is so called toxic waste sub-prime or other. The Bond market recovery is a function partly of the flight to quality but also the necessity of covering. Toxic waste is priced against Treasuries and the spread will widen further which right now will create a potential for buyers to arrive for the sub-prime purely because Treasuries are rallying. However what the new buyers may not realise is that the rally in Treasuries is also being driven by an unwind of the swaps set-up vs the sub-prime whereby the swappers are all short Treasuries and long sub-prime. IE double whammy time. There is also the need to re-allocate assets and frankly in terms of a Quarterly Auction Market Profile is displaying all the classic signs of buying and no selling. De facto bond yields will go down and will in the short term create that false dawn for stocks but again the de-leveraging that is on-going will utilise the opportunity to get out of jail from elsewhere. Found this article to be interesting for it shows the degree to which the current talk from the commercials about utilising the discount window as being some form of support for the FED's discount rate cut as being totally obfuscation. I haven't figured yet how to post links so I have edited this post to add the link long hand. http://money.cnn.com/2007/08/24/magazines/fortune/eavis_citigroup.fortune/index.htm?postversion=2007082415 as for the chart I wish to post on bonds sorry but also I haven't figured how to upload charts yet either. sorry

Could you do the same statistical work on the Bonds. Bonds not 10 year notes. If you can much gratitude in advance but also I wish to set the comparison between the two markets

....hard right edge... I only use Market Profile, have done since 1986 when I first met Pete Steidlmayer. Why would one use anything else when the data wharehouse as I refer to the market place gives you all the information in terms of who, how, when, for how long based off the statistical evidence of volume, price, time. This is the basis of any market analysis whereby if you plot the bell curve you can then extract proability scenarios, which if you like become statements "If this then that". ........Reality........... It's always about reality and perception. Pete Steidlmayer wrote and I hope he does not mind that I paraphrase his words. Check the pit call. If the open then is materially different go with the pit for clearly there was a change of expectation by longer time horizon trader. The market expects some form of consensus on a report, but does the opposite of expectations that is when the perception changes to reality

go back to the chart I posted above. If when you click on it to make it big it is not clear/in focus then look for the 4 way arrow on the bottom right hand side to improve imagery. Take the IB which stands for Initial Balance or in simplistic terms the first 60 minutes as represented in that chart by the B and C range. the low of which was 1502.7 the high of which was 1512 . Take one from the other to establish the difference = 9.3 which when added to the 1512 = 1521.3 added again = 1530.6. Now the question arises what to do if the upper target not achieved and that is simple it is a case of monitor price action at 1521.3 and from the slightly longer term profile then clearly 1515 is a hidden pivot. It could be argued that from the medium term profile that 1517.75 might be a better level but either way it matters little in that a reject of Fridays rally in some way would be evidenced via downward rotation back through the range and subsequent remaining below 1515 would be negative. If the downside does not manifest itself then obviously the probability of hitting the upper target is enhanced

the 15% trend day occurance is based off a statistical distribution over time looking at the various day types

trend days occur 15% of the time data back to 1982 and it does not matter which start or end date always 15% The reason why price returns to prev POC is because markets are mean reverting in nature As for Thursday you can assign the bond market if you like as the reason but the MP was already set for the move. IE it would have done the move regardless of the bond market but the bond market move possibly reinforced and generated possibly a faster move than might have occurred without the bonds

once you get to 4 TPOs then you are looking for the possibility that the trade alters from responsive to initiative. if it does not occur by this time then the chances of a trend day are lessened and so from 8 TPOs you are then effectively looking at a new IB distribution that frequently becomes a late running profile. ES on Fridaty Jun 8th was just such a clssic one in that respect. Back in 1986 Pete Steidlmayer wrote about needing to wait for the first 4.5 hours in ES to pass before establishing a trade and as per usual I contend nothing has changed over the years

no they are ES upside tgts based off the profile. the one thing that you do not find with any of the MP practioners is how to arrive at an exit. It is something that I perfected back in the 1980s that has been honed to take into account the modern day era of electronic trade where the day beginning and ending are not as clearly defined as just being the regular trading hours and so descriptions of the day type especially normal variation day which Steidlmayer described as being a range extention outside the IB by 15% are no longer valid descriptions and must be replaced by doubling and trebling of the IB range

I know you are talking NQ dogpile but just wanted to add my 2 cents on S&P to your comments with which I concur

The OFI is published but in a very obscure way deep inside the LDB - Liquidity Data Bank - at the CBOT. The OFI was Pete Steidlmayer's beginning of the change from the tradional market profile and looking at responsive and initiative trade to moving onto the higher plane of vertical and horizontal with front page and back page analysis that then becomes the basis for capital flow and his software Rather than look for this OFI then I suggest that as an alternative because as I have frequently demonstrated there are alternatives to susbcribing to the LDB which is cumbersome, expensive and time consuming in many respects - and these days everyone is so into instant gratification - that a look at the thread posted about when does a profile become fat may offer further insight http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f6/mp-question-how-many-30-min-1865.html The basis in very simplistic terms for OFI effectively is a ratio of uptics vs downtics. However it has to be considered that in the short term not all down tics are sells and not all uptics are buys

The answer to your question - for what in essence you are asking is when does the profile change from a responsive to an initiative style - depends on the type of trader you are. Let me make a comment that for the longer term horizon trader what Pete Steidlemayer referred to as the other time frame trader 5 points in the S&P is just a bid/offer spread. Let us assume you are a day trader and a scalper at that and my comments are purely for the S&P for it differs depending on product. To look purely at the TPO and try to set a rule of when does it become a fat profile is not sufficient.... for volume as well as time together with the value all in relation to previous as well as current pattern make up the market profile..... BUT...... the short answer to your question is 8 TPOs and to be on look out once 4 have formed Looking at the slightly longer term profile of composite days then the moment that you get 22 is time to be aware of the possibility of change. And once you reach 42 you should be monitoring in ultra-short term mode because at 48 that is about the point of time that change occurs.

First off let me declare an interest. 1stly I am alleyb who wrote Chapter 17 for John Carter. 2ndly I participate almost daily with Billy in the IOAMT room as a presenter. I have no financial interest in IOAMT but Billy frequently urges me to place my own website link in his room and I have received a few paid sign-ups that way. I have also once in Sept last year done a paid presentation that was billed at 4 hours but lasted over 7 due to attendees demand 3rdly I am the author of MP101 and MP102 the former is no longer availale at the CBOT website unfortunately but both are available free from my own site Billy has a free course on the front page of his site. It is a well written document. It states it has a $295 value but its free and despite it saying it is for a limited time has been available for well over a year. Take it and be your own judge Billy trades and has done for over 10 years. He is an extraordinary tape reader who despite a sometimes caustic (sometimes viewed by people as rude) and autocratic style - But in that respect over the last couple of years he has actually improved from the I'm the coach method to a more congenial way of discussion - actually explains throughout the whole day the unfolding auction. He explains in full detail not just viewing the bid/ask analyzer but with properly detailed charts the process of trading, what to expect and how it looks both in theory and in practice Billy runs the occassional week long teach-ins where previous paid attendees can particpate again for free. On average he has done 3 per year charging if my memory serves me correct $1500. It is an intense course which almost never seems to end. Billy trades exclusively the E-Mini Billy's style is to grab the first point then look for the 2nd point then hope that he has trade location to hold for more. He used to use a scale-in method that he no longer shows as for most especially undercapitalized traders that is an inappropriate way of trading. Billy explains as it is unfolding not after the event with clear precise information and explanation showing a bid/ask analyzer footprint chart which is akin to a point and figure but with volume displayed. Some have described it as being similar to market delta's volume chart but it it is different and as I do not wish to get into a subjective discussion of which is better so the best way is to take the trial and see for yourslef. Billy does promote the genesis software but purely because they carry a copy of the bid/ask analyzer that he designed (and was coded for him by someone else named Eric who also is in the room occassionally) and uses. The genesis one though is very slightly different to billy's own copy - that he shows in the room - as it is an on-going project I do not know what Billy charges for membership to his room but I believe it is 250 p.m. - right now he has approx 60 people, he peaked at around 110 late last year, he does a daily commentary for the SFO mag that is posted on their website. Membership is not just access to his room but also allows you to see the database that he has created on his website that covers the 4 U.S. indices with incredible information which is statistically based and calculated in terms of supoort and resistance levels together with a 5 minute delayed bid/ask analyszer that shows the unfolding auction together with emerging value. It is impossible to do it justice in just a few short words here. I compliment Billy in that his ultra-short term scalp style of trading is the anti-thesis of what I do which is to take the traditional market profile chart and analyze it in terms of the longer term trader and his position to establish a short term trade that begins with a scalp but if it starts to work ie trade location is gained then it becomes a swing position looking for in reality just a couple of trades per day on which a structural position can be built

where would be the ideal entry level in Sept? and is possible could you explain why