Alan Rich Online

Markets are just about to open let's see what happens in that first 30 minutes.

Today is all about if the Dollar weakens I got stopped out of that last multi day trade on the EURJPY near the black line. I re-entered the market when the US started its afternoon run near the red arrow. If the S&P futures rise then the Dollar will weaken but the winner yet again seems to be EURJPY. So watch what happens to the S&P futures on Friday. Is all this the start of a new move for Friday? I took some profits off the table here on the chart below on this new EURJPY move for my full days Friday profits. Now the rest is a free run. What a week! UPDATE! I suppose really today is all about if the Dollar weakens, the S&P futures rises and the EURO strengthens. You can see its the EURJPY that benefits if this happens. (Unless some news hits it.) That’s where the momentum is. You can also see why I took something off the table at the highs in the last post at the ellipse before I caught a few hours sleep. I’ve already banked today’s profits. Today is a bonus. Its been a brilliant week for traders. Enjoy today, lets see how it works out. I’m in a no loose position, partial profits banked and a free run on the remaining position. I’m taking it easy.

Yer have a think at how best to spice it up @ admin sounds like a plan!

Sure where is the best place, I did look for like a treading journal section but didn't find one... Maybe you could add one?

Remember I told you a couple of days ago that the EURO was strong. In trading you never listen to opinion but rather watch what’s going on. Is this the start of something bigger in the first part of next year for the EURO? That big stall we had in the US session before Christmas due to Fiscal Cliff negotiations breaking down has started interesting moves. The US Dollar has suddenly strengthened and is holding. Underneath the EURO is still strong against weaker currencies but for the moment the US Dollar is king. So Whilst EURJPY is moving up, USDJPY is flying. Whilst EURAUD is moving up AUDUSD is falling hard. So for the moment I’d be more interested in USDJPY rather than EURJPY. If all of this is a reaction to the Fiscal Cliff then it’s safe to assume that nothing will get done over the Christmas period so the US Dollar could continue its strength and I’d look to trade it against weaker currencies. If they sort out the Fiscal Cliff and the US Dollar weakness then I’d switch back to the EURO against the weaker currencies. I spent all day Christmas day with my family. I spent half of Boxing Day with my extended family yet I still managed to follow and trade the markets. I just fitted it in and around my life style for those 2 days. All the time managing positions with stops based what was going on intraday when I could check my screens. Anyone can do that during their normal working life. The EURUSD wants to move up because the EURO is strong but the weak S&P futures keeps holding it back by strengthening the US Dollar. That’s its big problem at the moment. That’s why its lagging other EURO crosses. This is how I played the strong Euro.

Well I don't know what the distinct difference is, I just trade it.. To me it looks strong. Happy Christmas!

I'm still watching these YEN pairs and trading these YEN pairs. I'm up about $8,000. I closed the AUDJPY because it's weak. Have a nice day

Hehe, ok :-) Let's hope one of us right ;-)

Keep watching the EURO its strong and could continue over the holiday period. Watch EURAUD, EURNZD, EURJPY, EURUSD! You know those highs we put in recently, check out how some EURO pairs are attacking them again. Here is the EURAUD with those highs marked.

My predictions for 2013 are this. Inflation is rearing its head and everything is starting to cost more, this wont stop and will only continue. Keeping money on deposit is a waste of time and people will slowly realise that if they don't do something positive with their savings they will only drop hugely in real terms. In five years time they will wonder what has hit them. Wages will still be low and ordinary day things will be very expensive. Sensible people will start taking action in 2013 to protect themselves and many will start investing and trading the markets. The Yen will be volatile and worth traders keeping a close eye on it in the year ahead. The S&P futures will continue its up trend because Obama and the FED are committed to it. The EURO will continue to rise unless a catastrophic event occurs. They have just done enough to keep things ticking along OK. Gold will fall not rise in the near term. The game is up for Apple and the shorts will jump on it until they drive it so low that it becomes worth buying again. The US market will be the place to be and all the major moves will be directed from there. Have a happy Christmas.

U.S. Index futures slumped. Asian shares declined and the yen strengthened. The U.S Index futures have slumped, meanwhile Asian shares have declined and the Chinese YEN has strengthened after House Republican leaders cancelled a planned vote that would permit higher taxes amid stalled budget talks. The delay in the budget talks is strengthening the US Dollar and the YEN. You can see how all this is reflected in the Dollar Index.

The US market was a bit tough yesterday. We sold off into the Fibs which was fair enough. But the bounce was tough. At the same time the EURUSD hit the Fibonacci extension and sold off along with the EURJPY. I got stopped out of the things I was trading so I decided to give it a break. I take a break when I get stopped out of a position to make sure that I am not trading belief. I wait and see what the market is doing rather than jumping back in again. Take time to reassess the situation, maybe you have missed something, maybe something is happening that you didn't see originally. Look at the larger time frames, check the news, see how your mood is, get your emotions in check. Here is the chart of the EURUSD and that Fibonacci extension. You can see from yesterday how important the US market is and why it can dictate moves. They can kill a move stone dead like yesterday. You can be euphoric from the day before and from the morning, your account can show really big profits and then wham the US reverses and you get stopped out of your positions. That's what happened to me on EURJPY.

So you disagree about a correlation between the S&P500 and the EURUSD or Dollar Index? Fair enough TheDude Pull up a correlation between @ES and EURUSD the 2 charts I posted. I found a few sites on the correlation but better for one of you 2 to pull it up I think... Cheers

Whilst day trading you need to understand exactly what's going on underneath because when the underlying story reaches its conclusion that's when you get your blow out moves. When you are right and you can feel it, trade it with larger size. You can make a week's money on just one of those moves. In the example from yesterday the EURJPY consolidated for so long that the US would either run the stops or go for the break. That intra-day consolidation was key. However you had to be an intra-day trader to know it was happening. The chief market analyst at "We want you to trade more securities." is so busy he just writes about what's happened and then makes up some technical analysis to look good. Then he gets it syndicated on the web and his company are happy. Joe Bloggs reads it and takes his cue from that. You see how late they are to what's occurring. Find out what's truly happening intra-day because you are there first. You are the ones that make the money all the rest are followers. The key yesterday was the consolidation ringed. Where so many would take their end of day analysis is shown by the black arrow. Who is the winner? The web reader at the black arrow or the intra-day trader who knows what's going on at the ellipse? A quick lesson: "When you are right and you can feel it, trade it with larger size."

So you can't see that one goes up while the other goes down or vice versa? As the dollar gets cheaper you can buy more US shares for that dollar... Please tell me you can see that... Any one else? One goes up the other goes down. No?

Look at Friday and that massive move in the EURUSD! I have said before many, many times how important it is to have an understanding of the US market. As soon as the US started trading it did the things it should do and ran all day. It's these things you need to know because it will get you in before the crowd. An easy way of watching the US day is by watching the SPY's. They'll show you any gap plays. I really believe that we need an understanding of the intraday, intraday traders and the moves in the market is the driving force, processional traders moving the markets. The move up in the S&P futures and the DOW yesterday was yet another example. They see it occurring before their eyes, everyone else will be one day later than you and all the gobbly gook technical analysis guys will curve fit their analysis to fit what we have just played. Below is a chart of the SPY's showing how it played the gap. The US market trades until 9pm our time in the UK many traders come home from work and trade it in the evening. If it's a strong market it runs hard into the close, which is what it did yesterday. So even those guys can be in before the crowd.

For the US markets and the US dollar, Lets substitute the S&P futures and the EURUSD. There is a big correlation between S&P futures and the EURUSD. Analysis of these two instruments can give us and edge in our day trading right down to the stocks we are trading. These two instruments are the leaders, what they do galvanises the market and gives it its underlying direction. At times they will trade together and at times they’ll diverge and go their separate ways. When they diverge then one very often pulls the other back in line. By understanding which one is the strongest at any one moment and the true leader we can get the heads up on the next market direction. Of course stocks are governed by how the S&P futures behave and therefore by understanding its movement helps us with our day trading. Imagine finding a momentum stock poised to soar and the S&P futures set to move the same way, odds are you are on a winner and can get a very good run. Imagine finding the same momentum stock and the S&P futures due to collapse. Then after the initial euphoria that stock is likely to run out of steam quite quickly and fade. The biggest Dollar cross is the EURUSD so watching that and the S&P futures helps us understand what the US markets and the US dollar are doing and gives us the heads up on the next potential market direction. In the chart example the EURUSD is above S&P futures are below. The S&P futures had been very lacklustre from the day before on the left and really only moved up because of the EURUSD dragged it up. When the EURUSD lost its momentum and went sideways the S&P futures collapsed shown by its black arrow. We now know the market is inherently weak. The next day as the S&P futures carried on its overnight drop, momentum suddenly powered into the EURUSD and once again lifted the S&P futures plus of course many, many stocks. This is shown by the red arrows. We now know that at this moment in time we have a weak market that is only being held up by a weak Dollar. (This is showing its hand by the movement of the EURUSD which is strong. i.e. a weak Dollar and strong EURO.) If the EURUSD stalls or any bad news comes out which affects it then the market has relative weakness against it and will drop. At this moment in time the EURUSD is the leader and the S&P futures is following. This gives us an edge in understanding what the underlying sentiment of the markets is and helps us take our trading decisions. In essence these two tell us the big picture that’s occurring at any moment in time. Some traders trade stocks but equally there are some that just trade these two big leaders. I’ll show you how to do it all.

The yen was collapsing against the dollar after being in a trading range for the last 2 weeks. I think the S&P is correlated to the dollar. Hope that helps...

Remember only intra day traders know what’s really going on and can react first. Everyone else will either be one day late or have some ridiculous theoretical reason why some imaginary move will occur. Real time is key to what is happening. When we are trading intra day and banking our smaller moves try and work what is truly going on underneath. What is really setting up. Remember you will know about it first and if you see it occurring then jump on the train because its leaving the station. What ever you do, don’t go and listen to retail traders talking to other retail traders on the web. Don’t be fooled if they are chief market analyst for XYZ, that’s just someone who knows a bit more technical analysis than you do. He is employed by his company to give the crowd what they want to hear so they trade more. Lets take the EURUSD on Friday. Whilst I’m trading it I said were down in the fibs by the ellipse in the morning. The only way we can get a run is to let the US session do it for us, the morning’s momentum has gone. So when the US come down and do the re test and it holds, and then we bounce, you know the odds are this is leading up to the breakout later in the day that so many people are watching for. The train is starting to move. The next two pullbacks are buyable, shown by the arrows. Hit it hard and go for the run. You are in before everyone else. Let everyone else talk about it afterwards, which is what they like doing. Let the gobbly gook technical analysis traders cancel their last stupid analytics and make new ones on Monday based on what just happened. We saw it first, we traded it first and we’ll sell to those that join it late and take our profits. That is good trading. That is how you make good profits. Here is the EURUSD chart showing when we saw it setting up and how any of the pullbacks shown were great buying opportunities.

Hello, I am Alan, I have recently joined TL, been trading 15 years. Thanks -Alan

Two things happened yesterday. The Yen pairs were still strong but held back by the S&P futures running out of steam. The EURO has got really good strength right now, everything is going for it. You could pair it against the Yen or the Dollar. As I say the only thing that held things back yesterday was the S&P futures. It is now down on a bottom trend line in the intra-day charts. If the US session decides that this is enough and they are buyers then you could get a day when everyone becomes buyers. Lets have a look at how the S&P futures ran out of steam and very slightly held the party back. If you think they can bounce from here then it's the Euro pairs that will benefit. This is the EURUSD move everyone is watching. Can it break through major old resistance? You can see the pause yesterday due to the things we have already talked about. Now everyone is watching to see if it can break through and hold once it does so rather than it being a fake move. Here is the EURUSD chart.

Hello Traders, I am am ex-city trader and I have been trading the market for over 15 years full time. After speaking with an admin about my posting they decided it's best that I post on one continuous thread, if you are new to this thread jump to the last page to get my recent market updates. I mainly trade the Forex Majors, the S&P futures and US stocks. -Alan Rich