Alan Rich Online

GBPUSD I’d get interested in it now because something is happening to it. Its got a more directional feel to it and the US market might do something with it. However after promising an initial move from the pivot shown and a drop down this morning it went sideways so rather than keep on about it It I left it. Now its moving I’d put the ARTS system on it as it’s bouncing a lot stronger off the fib level we looked at earlier. Below is how it promised so much and then did nothing. When it does nothing I’m not interested. Now it’s moving I’m interested in it and I’ll follow it.

The early strength is good news for the US market with an initial pull back taking out the days high. The big money how ever will come in the next 10-15 mins. There is a big gap to fill on the SPY’s, if it ignores it and keeps on going it’s good for the market but just watch out if it rolls over and fills that gap.

Gold could be poised to go higher. It’s back atatcking the latest highs in its consolidation.

I know what I have said in the past about Gold but watching it in the short term it just doesn’t want to stay down. The last sell off was just a pullback. I may very well buy a small position in it and place it in my portfolio in case there is more to this bounce in the daily charts than I think.

After todays economic news the Dollar strengthened. But what if its just part of the US Dollars continued rollover? In the chart attached I have shown what the Dollar index is doing and put the fib grid on the last leg down. I’d watch the Fib grid area to see if it can’t get through them. If it starts stalling at the highs of the rollover just as the USDJPY did recently then we could get another drop. See what you think.

I think EURGBP has rolled over in the big picture. Here is the chart. It maybe worth watching that today at lunchtime.

No? Hope your wife has forgiven you for your unusual way of managing your personal finances...

Blue I didn't say buy Apple I said its pulling back... Feel free to draw a 50% retracement from the highs to lows.... I figured even you would be able to see that? "Very interestingly the pivotal area made over the last few days on Apple is right at its 50% retracement point in the weekly chart."

Hi Blue!! Your thought you had got rid of me??

Hi guys, Haven’t posted for a short while, I will be back posting again! Been very busy, hope your all well? -Alan

Never mind the analysis we need to think about ourselves and also whats happening. Most of us have made significant profits this week on the EURO and I still think its strong. However if you have been on the YEN you can see how the weaker currencies are starting to struggle slightly. We have to be picky now and understand what has relative strength and what is showing relative weakness against the YEN. When you are euphoric after big gains your rationing can be out of sync whth whats happening. Its at times like this you can suddenly get big moves against you and your mind can make you freeze. Better that you rationalise things in advance in your mind and be prepared if something big happens that you dont expect. Like end of the week profit taking.

It goes with out saying that the EURO is in play, so I'd just keep following it across the board. The YEN is still weak so anything strong with it is a winner. Do you see how many commentators technical analysis last weekend and Monday to short the YEN pairs seems so ridiculous now and how it was price action intra day that blew all their views out of the water! That's the big problem that people have in being successful in their trading, there are so many people who dont trade giving old fashioned T/A ideas, the crowd follow them because their analysis seems reasonable and then get burnt to a cinder when price action does something different.

I told you a while back the Aussie Dollar is strong and really that should be the one I traded. I also told you that when everyone was screaming to go short the Yen pairs because of an over bought RSI and other wonderful ideas they thought of, I said it could quite easily be a pullback or a consolidation. Which it has turned out to be. What they really should have said: “It was a take profit level from the last leg up”. But of course they haven’t been trading it so they wouldn’t see it that way. What I’m saying now is that the momentum has waned in the YEN and we have to be selective. The weaker currencies are lagging on this move against the YEN and I’d leave them alone and focus on the strong ones. I jumped on the USDJPY because of the Dollars strength but the Aussie Dollar is stronger. Why did I focus on the YEN again? Mainly because so many people were talking about shorting the YEN pairs. I was even showed a video of a T/A guru telling all his followers to short the YEN pairs. I smiled and thought I must remember do the opposite to that when the time is right! All I need is timing, good management and the right YEN pair plus an understanding of the right time to jump off, the rest is pure profit! When the time comes to short the YEN pairs I will be on it but as I said its not yet. No matter what analysis is done by over analytical people who keep telling us what we should do. This is one type of reason why people know how to trade but can’t make money. All of us that do trade for a living end up bumping into the over analytical brigade but we manage to steer through and focus on our trading rather than listen to their views.

I'm watching the US Dollar. It’s back in the Fib areas again and at some stage it could strengthen. If it does then I'll pick the pairs that will benefit. The way I look at things is like this. I'll do some analysis and think there is a scenario which could play out. If it does then I'll trade it. I won’t trade it until the timing is right in the time frame I'm looking at. What happens with average technical analysis guys they think something has occurred, create a belief, jump in then get stopped out, jump in again get stopped out and when it does happen they're not on it. Their timing is not so hot and they get burnt. Many times of course something looks good but it’s a fake and they get really burnt because they have just been fooled by the market. Timing is everything. So I can see the Dollar index is back in the Fib areas and could strengthen but I'll wait to see what is happening in the time frames I'm watching.

One of the hardest things when we are trading is grinding out profits intraday when things are quiet or setting up for something bigger. Especially if everyone is telling us that something big has occurred in the charts. Sometimes we can jump the gun only to find that out that the big thing we thought would happen has just been a pullback or another consolidation. Sometimes things just need time to play out a bit before we can see what’s happening. That’s why making profits intraday can be hard. It’s a waiting game. At the moment the US Dollar is back in the Fib area. I think it can hold down here and strengthen again. So I’ll set the system chart to indicate in a slightly bigger time frame when that might be.