sergso

But Bernanke will make much more when he is out of the job delivering speeches

+ for this comment........

Trend following no longer makes good money. Maybe a little money but not good money. Just look at the CTA indices for the last years. There is no better proof than that. BarclayHedge | Barclay CTA Index This is sh***ty performance after 2009. S&P 500 has gone up about 120% in the same period these trend-followers have not even made CD returns. Forget about backtesting and things like that just look at the index of these CTAS. Most are following turtle-like methods. They were not able to even trend follow the S&P 500 that even a fool can buy and hold through SPY and make tons of money.

What about cases that the method does not work meaning that the pullback does not happen but the stop is taken out and the market reverses to make new highs?

Best time to trade is when there is free money left on the sidewalk. If you want to trade seriously you must be ready to do so 24 hours a day.

If these guys know anything about trends then why did they make a new forum in which they wonder what has happened to trends and why old trend trading methods do not work? Just check it out. Try to backtest his rules: "Enter long positions on a new 50 day high. Vice versa for shorts. Go with the breakout and ride the trend. Nothing else. Signals are generated on daily closing data and the trade taken on the open the following day Exit on three average true range moves against the position from its peak reading. ." These are like very old turtle rules and have not worked for a while other than on purposely selected cases on hindsight. I mean everyone writes a book when his trading method fails. It is irrational to write a book about a method that works. Think about it.

I am half-Italian living in Greece married to an Albanian. I trade for 15 years in front of the beach.Making a lot of money. Wait for Italy and France to default. Then America. But the beach will still be here. Ciao.

Sorry but anyone who thinks that publicly available information priced at $20 will make any returns is a joker: Better chance to play lottery.

Not for buy but it is good to see the general idea and performance.BTW Covel stuff is 30 years old ideas. I don't think anyone can now make money in the markets by reading a $20 book. :haha:

Good points. I agree. I like to add the risk of missing the best trend when using multiple indicators.

This is an article that talks about adaptation in trend-following. Does anyone know of some adaptive trend following indicator that can match the results of this study? I guess the difficulty is in keeping a high return while reducing the historical drawdown.

If you do not see a reason now see what happened in 2008 when investors on margin, not even traders, were liquidated just before the market bottom.

Margin is a loan from the broker to buy stocks. Margin is also a percentage of notional value you need to deposit to trade a futures contract or a forex lot. I try to avoid using margin as much as possible because if things go bad traders on margin lose everything they have made for many months or years in just one day.

Niko, dividends are not traded, they are handed to you as a bonus for staying invested for a long time. If someone bought the S&P 500 basket or for example VOO, the dividend payment is about 2.5% - 3% annually for the period in your chart. That is a lot of dough if someone invested millions and given that inflation has stayed low..

...........Pip or miss:)

He forgot the dividend payouts. Typical mistake of a trader who never invested any money in stocks.

Leverage is very dangerous and the cause of failure for most forex players. My rule is to never use more than 10:1 leverage.

You may want to read the first part of this article. If one backtests 10 systems and finds one that performs well when applied to both in-sample and out-of-sample data chances are the result was due to data-mining.

Globex is a hard place to trade for me because of lack of liquidity at times. I prefer the CME futures and the well defined New York session: http://www.cmegroup.com/trading/fx/g10/euro-fx_contract_specifications.html I trade EC and BP futures and spot using data from CSI and my forex broker. My analysis is consistent with the open the broker provides.Also see this In the forex market, how is the closing price of a currency pair determined? I use an automated tool to build systems for the futures and forex data.

If you have 10 analysts working for you fundamental analysis may work.

Absolutely true and well said.

[quote name=ed_inacloud;179959Now what would be useful is that if those that had a similar view about market randomness were allowed to share findings to see if it really is possible to beat it. Challenge it by all means but in a constructive way. I for one would like to be proved wrong' date=' if there's evidence that it's not random then post it and help us all out. Ed[/quote] Even if the markets are random you can stil make a lot of money by trading randomly even when you think you have a method. Click here and go to article "What you need to do to claim you are an accomplished trader".

I agree but not for the next hour or even day. And deciphering importance and impact is not an easy job.

Based on what other people say who are considered experts, 176 trades for intraday trading is a very small sample. You might have been lucky simply speaking and the system has no edge. If you want to find out if you have en edge you will need to do some serious statistical work like for example is done in this blog for a daily system Significance of a System For Trading SPY | Price Action Lab Blog Also if you can figure out your Sharpe ratio it will be very good. It must be > 1.

I read someplace once that all indicators are lagging because they use past prices.