smbtnt

and as usual th exit sucks:crap:

Nice play! and welcome back!

and all out at 634 before the inventory spike.

bad decision on 1st exit as usual, can't see any R until 630 zone, so why scale??? need to work on exits, damn! and damn the NQ! for hitting 1850 without me...

not comfortable so scaling out at 600, rest at 580...

Totally, Just playing intraday support here, everything here is airy fairy imo, it could go to 700, could go to 800. 550 showed some support premarket and hence the long. The Nq made the higher low yesterday but struggling to bust the downtrend line from june, but she came off trumps at 1822-24 so am hoping we fly to the next zone which is 1850. Unfortunately I played the wrong index.... Inventories at 3.30 should give this a bit of a push... Not enough evidence imo to mark the top, so far anyway...

hope she plays ball mate - im off the round number at 550, maybe should have taken the 30 or so pips....

after the bounce at 430, yesterdays high?

ok, didnt realise it was a scalp....

brave move pre fomc, is this due to lack of conviction after 11100 breakout?

Usually one plays with trend but this level on the dow has been tested so many times a double bottom bounce is favourable if we take out 240, I have shorted 160 hoping for a retest of previous lows....lower highs and lows etc...

Yes but we have not closed below 11200 yet, having made the lows. A close below on the daily will accelerate the run to sub 11k imo.

so far down can we go. As I see it we are making lower lows and lower highs on the daily wth no sign of trendline break. Surely a test of 11k and subsequently 10750 is inevitable. I have 10k as the ultimate HS target.

YM support at 180, thats all I see...

crisp trading FW!

I will punt a long 740-750 if there is any sign of hesitation off that zone.

FW, In reply to your question about end of trend and placing odds in your favor: well I am primarily a discretionary trader and This is how I saw the market on the 16th and 17th. We had 330 - 360 as resistance. Price had found support at 240 on the 16th but was clearly being rejected at 270, we finally did make it to 320 and sell-off ensued. Premarket on the 17th we could not close above 360, we broke below 320 and 270, the trend gradient was sharply down, the 1st retrace to 300 was deep, we found support at 270 but broke down to 240, previous day's support. We retraced again to 270 and rejected very sharply, this was evidence enough that we would now be moving down to the next support level i.e 180, which we did. We found support there and retraced deeply agin this time to previous day's low at 220 which was again rejected and the next support level would now be 100. Let's say you did take a long at 240 which was infact a contratrade, your 1st scaleout would be near the 270 region and eventually a stopout on the trailers for breakeven. One would then wait for a pullback after 240 broke for an entry short - this would be around the 210 region as 220 was rejected on a down trending day, traget one would be 180 and next target would be at 100. Having said all that - my trade was a long at 250 and stopped out for b/e but we live and learn...

well played fw.

long 580 stop 569

well done mate!

:applaud: for the soothsayer!

Maybe even 450, but with support so close i.e 20 pips from my exit and previous s/r was 520. Not willing to risk 40 trailer for 20 gain, hence the exit and in hindsight ofcourse, real reason was that I had to leave the screen.

fib line bounce 480. cya.

cant trail - need to pop out - all out at 482. Hope you fair well fw, looks like you were spot on again.

moved stop to 525