BULLSANDBEARS

Needing time for direction, one short on the xlb, 39.26 posting update spy 320pm 2-4-13 in the attatchment you can see my friday bail over ride, red verticle, good job. Systems dictated a curl , a break down. A loss of energy. Right now a rest on what may be leg 2 pullback. Id the chart: #1 . Looking for a trend higher on blue bars, yes they are above the 0 line but need trend up. #2 . Looking for a curl up on the baseline and some tell tale "green spikes" to indicate change up #3 . Looking for red to stop and lower upside curl #4 . Slope to break beyond resistant points carried by the trend over the average trend #5 . Average percent change to break the 0 line trend to the bib 50% retrace expecting spy to the 147 / 148 area to be healthy as posted . She is ready when she is ready anything could happen short term "this week" right now leg 2 out of 3 to 5 pullback detail in attatchment

End of day 2-1-13 all set to short these hungry pups and instead the fat pigs come a calling, cant beat them , join them, ready for anything. Opening bars rang the sirens to the longs and joined them i did, hungry myself as this week had some digestion in mind. Trading activity: Exiting for the weekend ,seeing pullback . Attatchment green vert, red vert. , may rejoin the open algo monday. Still expecting a pull back but back into harvest more profits over the spy 150.5 mark, next high,,,, who knows. 2%+. Enter long xlk 29.55 exit 29.72 profit +109. Enter long xlp 37.08 exit 37.16 profit +38 enter long xlb 39.40 exit profit +10. ..last 2 longs went sour on xlb , updated opti on 1-28 improved historical, we shall see current all positions closed , clean slate for monday , like to maintain control. How many time you had a profit to loose it all on a gapper. Updated thoughts: Looking at spy breakout, above the 149.5 to 150.5 dead zone ,11.01 am +151 algo's kicked in for the long side all chart set are on the 10 min 6 month , thoughts are to reduce the short side to 5 min to micro capture any short short opportunities. The 5 min will be reviewed for consideration on those that are heavily sloped against the trade. Todo: **test 5 min bars on the short side harmonic **set portfolio trade ma cross can slim new test **review c++,.net, **adaptrade suggested isolated indicator el setups this closes week 2 of test 2 week 2 final p/l profit +569 total ledger week 1 and week 2 p/l profit +1395. Total trades for the period is 14 todays exits were an over ride on the algo to protect profits over the weekend xlb, looked to round out top yet still open on the algo xlk is still open on the algo and is healthy above linear line 195 xlp still open on the algo , yet flat. May monday lift and i shall re enter, risk vs in hand and a confusion in the street. Inner feeling bail for me. Working on top holdings in the xlf financials workspace with harmonic . To work with the 2 top flyers as xlf is signaled. Wfc, jpm, bac, c, usb, axp, gs, spg, aig, met, cof, pnc, amt, trv, bk, ace, afl, blk, pru, ms

NEW TO THE POSTING HERE , BUT WHATS UP WITH MY IMAGES X- ING OUT. PLEASE LET ME KNOW IF ITS ON MY END, CAUSE IT LOOKS UNPROFESSIONAL AND DIFFICULT TO LOOK AT. THANKS FOR THE SUPPORT OF ANYTHING I CAN DO TO IMPROVE THE IMAGES AND CONTINUE POSTING. :helloooo:

UPDATE MORNING 2-1-13 CURRENTLY NO OPEN POSITIONS P/L REMAINS ON TEST 2 AT +1238 BUILDING UPDATE ON TEST 2 HARMONIC SHORTS FOR POTENTIAL PULL BACK. MORNING SPY GAP UP .5% LIKELY TO GRAVITATE RIGHT BACK TO OUR 150 LINE SPY TARGETS OF S1 FIB MULTI CROSS ON RETRACE, FAN , FORK HAS ME AT 148.50. THRESH HOLD OF 149.50 TO 150.50 AS A SIDE LINE RANGE. NO TRADE WILL BE TAKEN INSIDE THIS DEAD ZONE. 23.6% RETRACE IS HEALTHY FOR THE MARKET 148.5 SUPPORT NEWS OF CONTRACTION ON GDP HAS TO BE CONSIDERED. FIB RETRACE POSTED BELOW. "80% OF PROFITS ARE ONLY MADE 20% OF THE TIME" SMART MONEY SHOULD PUSH HER DOWN TO THIS SUPPORT. LOOK FOR TELLS ON THE MAIN ST OF SOME NEGATIVE NEWS, DOWNGRADES, "NOT SO HOT" WISPER. WHAT I CALL UNDER GROUND COMMUNICATION TO THE HEDGERS TO CALL THE OPP AND BUY THE DIP AS MAINLINE IS GUNG HOE ON INVESTING INTO THE ECONOMY AND SCREW THE DEBT, LINE THE POCKETS OF THE POLLS. GOOD LUCK.

Good stuff, i can post a pic here, yet cant post a pic on my journal, appears as "x" ,

TRYING TO SHARE HERE AND GETTING A BIG "X" ON MY THUMBNAILS, MABE ITS MY EYEBALLS, HERES AN ATTATCHMENT PIC OF A PROJECT IM WORKIN ON . TESTING 1, 2 ROGER THAT

DISCRETIONARY TRADER B AND B FIRE AND ICE 1.1 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------- UTILITIES XLU APPEAR IN FAVOR , BOTTOM RIGHT, POSTING A TECHNICAL BUILD I HAVE BEEN TESTING LAST FEW DAYS, STRAIGHT FORWARD. NOTES: SECTOR TEMP ARBITRAGE DISCRETIONARY TRADER "B AND B fire and ice BUILD 1.0" OBJECTIVE ITS TO TEST THE DISCRETIOARY IDEA AND IF IT HAS REASON, TO BUILD A STRAT TO MATCH WHICH WILL SHARE TO ALL. ONCE IT SHOWS PROFIT. TO EARLY TO TELL. INSTRUCTION INCOMPLETE ,WILL FOLLOW UP , ------------------------------------------------ B AND B FIRE AND ICE , BUILD 1.0, INSTRUCTION DIRECTIONAL ARROWS: OBSERVATION SMALL WHITE ARROW - PLACE HOLDER GREEN UP +2 ALL INDICATION OF FAVORABLE DIRECTION. **ABOVE 0 LINE, SLOPE UP, GOOD COLOR, FEELS GOOD YELLOW UP +1 - UP CAUTION - GIVE VALUE TO MAJORITY GREEN OR RED YELLOW DOWN -1 - DOWN CAUTION - GIVE VALUE TO MAJORITY GREEN OR RED ** YELLOW "CAUTIONARY, TURNING" MEANS IT HAS LOST SOME OF ITS MACRO FLAVOR VERSES PERFECT, A CHANGE AGAINST ITS PEAK PERFORMANCE. EXAMPLE: TREND VOL PRICE, SUBCHART 1, HAS A +2 UP GREEN ARROW, THEN WHILE RECALCULATING YOU SAW A SLOPING DOWN LAST HOUR OR SO, STILL ABOVE THE 0 LINE WOULD TURN IT INTO A +1 UP CAUTION ARROW. -------------------------------------------------------- BEST TO KEEP A MARKET UNDER RADAR, IE SPY OR IWM -------------------- NEED TO UPDATE TEST 2 AUTO SHORTLY --------------------- TEST 2 UPDATE: 708PM TRADING ACTIVITY: 1-29-13 TEST 2 HARMONIC EXIT XLK 29.29 LOSS -78 "RANGE BOUND" ---------------------------------- TRADE ACTIVITY 1-30-13 TEST 2 HARMONIC NO NEW POSITIONS WERE OPENED 1-30-13 EXIT XLP 36.99 PROFIT +82. THERE ARE NO OPEN POSITIONS HELD AT THIS TIME MARKET PULLBACK 150 ON THE SPY TO TEST AGAIN , 146 TO SUPPORT. CURRENT P/L LEDGER WEEK 2 OF 4 OF TEST 2 IS PROFIT +412. TOTAL LEDGER FOR TEST 2 IS PROFIT +1238. 2 MORE TRADING DAYS IN THIS WEEK , MAYBE A SHORT BITE

Update 1-25-2013 trade activity: Exit long xlv 42.53 profit +314. Exit long xlb 39.56 loss -90 enter long xlf 17.46 exit xlk covered short 29.36 profit +44 enter long xlb 39.73 11 am review::: Open and closed p/l +714. Spy at 149.62 srsi .6280 roc +1.40 energy strong , tech weak. --------------------------------- current open positions as of 4pm end of session long xlf up +6. Long xly up +346. Long xlb up +20. Long xlp up +159. ---------------------------------- current test 2 harmonic as of 4pm eod open and closed positions p/l :: Profit +826 week 1 close ---------------------------------- thoughts: Spy rsi lower highs, spy pause 150 chiseling resistance, appl day 2 bust maybe tuesday cover then resume... Bear trap to 400 - 360 next earnings will add a week, pressure march 1 , fundamentaly who cares. Xlk will celebrate when she is ready. Everything is built into the chart. Xli, xle rsi stuck on stupid , no cross for a bite , rsi lower highs . Waiting for a wave 4 pull, xl's flat on the performance today, digesting small cap clearing some mines for the big cap at 3 to 2. Spy still in harmonic buy, supertrend ++, rsi +, roc +, 6/9 xl's trending higher ----------------------------- prediction on some pullback starting with small cap , monitoring prediction screen test 16 posted, appears accurate. Notify jeff on tightening kickout on longs 1-29,30, loosen on shorties. 10 days out: Leg xlv extended, s1 to 41, xlb to 38, xlk to 28 dependent on aapl, , xly to 48, xlu pop to 37.5, xlp to 35.5. Until tomorrow .

UPDATE 1-24-13 ACTIONS ENTERED LONG XLB 39.73 ENTERED SHORT XLK 29.45 SUSPENDED XLU LONG DUE TO 6 MONTH TREND - WIN RATE / PROFIT RATE DETERIORATE AS TREND BECOMES OPPOSED. SUSPENDED LIST DUE TO OPPOSED TREND: XLF SHORT, XLY SHORT, XLI SHORT, XLE SHORT, XLB SHORT, XLV SHORT, XLU LONG ACTIVE LIST TREND IS FRIEND: XLF LONG, XLY LONG, XLI LONG, XLE LONG, XLB LONG, XLV LONG, XLK LONG AND SHORT "TIGHT", XLP LONG AND SHORT, XLU SHORT . NO EXITS, JUST THE 2 ENTRIES ABOVE. EOD HOLDINGS: XLY LONG UP +50. XLB LONG DOWN -60. XLV LONG UP +324. XLP LONG UP +55. XLK SHORT UP 117. OPEN AND CLOSED TEST 2 PL +513 . THOUGHTS: TO FILTER TRADE CLEARANCE AS THE EUITY ON BACKTEST PULL BELOW THE 50% TOP 6 MONTH PROFIT MARK. SYSTEMS ALWAYS RUN, ITS WHEN TO USE THEM. A COOL INSPIRING TED CONFERENCE MEET VIDEO His examples include Apple, Martin Luther King, and the Wright brothers. Simon Sinek: How great leaders inspire action | Video on TED.com WORKED ON TREND FILTER INDICATOR "TO ID NO FLY ZONES", ADDED PROFITS TO BACKTESTS ON LIMBO XLU - ** 10 MIN BAR ** ALL ARE WELCOME TO USE. compiles. to generate shut downs within no fly zones, ideas for market action or R/S LINES. input: price(low), barsout(1560),percspr(.01); if price[barsout] is > (price[1] + (price[1] *percspr)) then value1=text_new(Date[1], Time[940], close[1],("SHORT")); //barsout=historical price, percspr= percent gap off 30 day trail buffer active shutdown, over write is short zone MARKET TEMP : SHOULD WE CALL IT A WAVE 3 TO TOP ON THE SPY, WATCHING THE 150 LINE, THOUGHTS ARE TO TEST THE 150 PULL BACK INTO WAVE 4 TO 146 NEXT WEEK AS A BREATHER. FRIDAY EXPECTECTED FLAT. WHERES THE VOL POP TURN. TECHS WEIGHT ON APPL, ROC'S ABOVE WATER EXCEPT XLK, RSI OFF THE NEW HIGHS. SUPERTREND UP, XLP OUTPERFORMING THE SPY. TILL TOMORROW.

NO A BANG OF A DAY FOR THE FIRST TRADES TO GO INTO THE TILL FOR TEST 2 HARMONIC - THIS TEST IS RUNNING 1-19-13 THRU 2-18-13 EOD TRADE A PAPER AND POST AS + - AS IN PROFIT / LOSS US DOLLARS TRADES XLY EXIT LONG 49.75 - 34 took me out and thru me back in XLB EXIT LONG 39.48 + 61. TEST 2 CLOSED TALLY + 27 its a start ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- RE ENTRY XLY LONG 50.01 ------------------------------------------- CURRENT HOLDINGS XLY - EVEN XLV - UP 190 XLP - EVEN PRETTY LACK LUSTER - MARKET HAS STRENTH WORKING ON NO MANS LAND. NEED A HORIZONTAL 4% CHANNEL WITH 0 LINE OFF 30 DAY LOW, NO TREND APPL UP THEN AFTER MARKET CRASH, MANIPULATED AFTER MARKET WILL AFFECT THE MORNING MAIN MARKETS FEELS TOPPY YET HOLDING UP. ROC ABOVE WATER MID WEEK , 23 DAY RUN NEEDS A BREATHER TRENDLINES HOLDING, ALL INDICATION IS UP BESIDES APPL TELLS: OF SPY STILL IN BUY MODE, WE KNOW THAT MAY CHANGE WITH TECH FIZZLE ON AAPL. TILL TOMORROW

excel on test 1 closed trades paper harmonic 12-17-2012 thru 1-18-2013 a new test started today with carry over from open positions test 1 adjusted over ride slope channel "no mans land" . no more fighting city hall. current position above attatch shows 2717 above water i went with the trade flow and saw shorts were causing more harm than good due to poor slope condition , adjustment to lower bar count and increase wave speed for faster exits. note XLB, new inputs 29,20,50,40,close,60,56,1,2 / 6 month net +632 6 trades ratio old inputs 29,20,50,40,close,30,28,1,2 / 6 month net from +780 to +355 12 trades ratio 2:1 . need to implement 2% no trade channel need to recognize cross up on average loss size for reajusting optimization, slope consideration as a multiplier and string loss alert for flag. *** also 2% slope on 30 days both sides of the 0 line as "no mans land" XLB 12-17-12 36.80 * 2% = .736 , upside short stop trade channel would be between 37.53 and downside to 36.06 WOULD HAVE FILTERED OUT ALL TRADE ON THE SHORT SIDE within the 12-17-2012 to 1-18-2013 period and hence maintained no loss. shoulda woulda coulda. its gonna happen now , more steppin to the side and workin with the bulls.

still holding long XLY up $55 XLB up $172 XLV up $214 XLP up $11 tell tails: SPY ROC AVE GREEN SECTOR ROC UPTREND SPY OUTPERFORMING AVERAGE CYCLE UP - topping ave range thought : room to move higher SPY WENT LONG TODAY AT 1030am 148.15 AAPL WENT LONG TODAY AT 315pm 503.15 against the trend , appears to bite any opportunity. IWM FLAT - waiting for entry , harmonic must be waiting for more confirmation.

This is the sector temp chart 1, 1. multi ma sectors ave 195, 39, 6, in historgram, sectors in 195 bar ma, spy red, sub2. roc spy 195 bar ave, , sub3 sector roc 195 ave, sub4 smoothed harmonic rsi 195 ave. tells - spy outperforming , xly outperform averages, xle leading roc, xlk 5 day roc laggard estimate to cross up. overall current 5 day uptrend spy just went buy on the harmonic 148.15 10.30am adds confirmation to the long side

1-18-13 XLY 49.81 4pm 1-22-13 XLB 39.34 9.40am 1-17-13 XLV 41.85 10.20am 1-18-13 XLP 36.46 4pm spy flat - i use as a tell aapl - flat - dito iwm - flat - dito spy outperforming xl averages all roc positive cycle up any changes to post as they occur need to post test 1 12-17-12 thru 1-18-13 closed trades paper

PLEASE NOTE : THIS IS A SYSTEM TEST ALL IS IN PAPER AS ALERTS ARE HIT. LONG ON TOP , SHORT ON BOTTOM , BLUE = IN , BLACK = FLAT , RED = IGNORE LOWER INDICATOR = EQUITY CURVE W/ OPEN AND CLOSE AND MIDLINE CURRENT HOLDINGS ON THIS SCREENSHOT XLP AND XLV . WILL POST SETUP 2.

BACKTEST SAMPLE XLF 6 MONTH SCOTT HAHRMONIC MA ASSIST REOPTIMIZED 1-17-2013 WILL USE FOR NEXT 30 DAY TEST 2 BEGINNING 1-22-2013

Just completed a back test on a simple code that reduced available trade equity by 30% next trade if previous trade failed to profit , also added to that, if the second closed trade back failed to produce a profit a further 30% reduction on available equity, from 20k to 14k less loss, lets say to 10k . the result without money management was 19k profit , test 1, 1 negative trade equity reduction resulted to 12k profit and test 2 - multi string loss reduction resulted in a 5k profit , not the way i thought, researching anti martingale. on the flip side , I added shares by 30% on a loss "martingale" , and produced almost 60k in the test. The martingale, similar to averaging down, is outside my donald trump budget and against my buying on the way down. A promising test came from a re invest code that took the equity allotted to that particular symbol and added the profit/loss and divided by the previous bar close verses straight 20k trades over the same period produce 2x the profits. bottom line will be testing the reinvest code over the next 30 days on the 9 xl spyders and will post the results in the traders log, One thought on profit preservation is to step aside when something doesnt add up as i will with the anti martingale for now. further reserch on anti martingale will contine outside of fixed fractional or volatility expansion, would be to add dynamics "push and feel" into the equity reduction.equation. I firmly believe in diversification, yet diversify on leading indicators within each sector. drilldown is the term. cheers

TESTING GRAPHIC LINK SETUP TESTING RESPONSE TIME 1-20-13 1255P EST WHATS THE BEST GRAPHIC FORMAT TO USE HERE?

Hey Blue, screen of XLY , also strats are auto, sreen alert as well as email alert, I then paper track as they are under test mode due to capital structure constraint. 20k is my set trade , 200k account cap on the 9 sectors, regular session. liquidity on a major spyders handling 5 to 50 mil daily vol may take a few pennies on the spread. time frames , i utilize 10 min bars, if have found this to be a sweet spot within the algo and the instrument , indexes like this move in a turtle fasion but have the power of a dinasourus rex. lol... All are shortable as the slope permits, I stay 20% above or below the 0 line of the range on a 6 month chart, no sence to trade a sleeping rex. slope carries a multiple in the risk / reward department . dont fight city hall. The trade is based on directional moves based on slope, wave , average and equity. generating a traders log in the traders log forum. as a tip, dont trade real cabbage unless you have a system that is proven profitable over a 6 month period, expect 6 to 1 loss/win ratio , be happy to exit a loser as it shows control. I have limited my emotion thru algo's, the only over ride i do is political... I dont trust politics so i step aside during the unknowns, as i recently shut down the system prior to new years and no vote taken, yes lost the gap up as i was long all 9 sectors and profited, yet the uncertainty was not worth the risk involved. my thought was against a fiscal passing, then again look what happened, after the gap i refused to reenter until a corrective wave and a new signal. never chase , let her come to you. gotta split good stuff

To remove all HOPE and PRAYER , to profit on FEAR and GREED . execute a plan then execute that plan . Knowing your risks and odds more than you know yourself. EXPECT TO LOOSE, if your not loosing trades your not trading like a pro or not trading at all, BE HAPPY with those small losses, that one gainer under proper execution will clean up the graffiti. Good Luck and stay liquid.

Begin start date 12-17-2012 the trade period has closed eod 1-18-2013 profitable around $3500. Flat 20k trades , 200k cap long and short. Trades will be posted in a group to establish log algo - " scott harmonic w/ alert ma assist " xlb - inputs please update xle xlf xli xlk xlp xlu xlv xly need to update for 30 day new session begin 1-21-2013 algo will remain , 20k trade 200k cap

Shifting full time trader, setting automation with easylanguage, testing algo's now several years preparing for capital injection. My game currently is the sector spyders , ie XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY . i live and sleep sectors, 12 years in when gold was 200/oz ,i was told to pricy so i sold it, my first trade... lol, last 30 days net profit 4k paper, hand trading live alerts over algo's , working slopes, trends, rsi's waves, r & s, and lots of patience , work 10 min bars / 6 month history / multichart / 12 monitor system. hope to contribute. Scott B.

The close has significant power and may be magnified on multiples if within the same direction. The period in which the close falls on has significance, for example, you have a 30 day close and you have the end of the month close, "the close of the bar is meaningless.... EXCEPT... no exceptions , like saying a fib is meaningless... EXCEPT. The close of any bar carries direction and algorithmic adjustment. Lets give the micro bar close of a lesser power , yet deserves a power. Everything has a power force that ultimately reflects in the market, right down to the prediction of weather. A tick up or down has meaning, may the annual close carry a higher power. currently compiling countIF formulas on multi time frames. this is imo.

Thought i would contribute a thought on a strat i generated utilizing the osc, slashed out are memos and referrences i had . the backtest was FAS 6 tick 15000 bar, long only , i have also generated a bar up/down value count combo and appears to add strength to this, the count indicator is on the bottom of the screen shot, as DeMark put value into a bar completing to the upside or downside, i will post the combo shortly. if you look at the bar count indicator, crazy divergence. i like to optimize on full swings, where the chart runs a full abc pattern , as a bull player dont want the downside entry. tell me how it does for you, DEMARK OSC WITH MA STRAT.txt