eminiman414

To help become robotic through replay and study answer these questions. Where is the RET taking place? - How are into the move? - What is the context? (prev swings, ranges, trend, 50%s, means, extremes) How is it taking place? - Hesitant? - Slower or faster then preceding movement? - erratic, bouncy, jumping around? - plunging/rocketing? - is it clean? What are traders thinking? - Are they changing their minds and heading in the opposite direction? - Are they changing their minds and heading in the original direction? - Compare these answers to the descriptions of hows and wheres - If traders do not enter with the RET what does that tell you? - Again use hows and wheres to help answer - Use failed entries/entries not triggered as clues - How far does price have to go to give traders the opportunity to participate? - 50%, LH, HL, DB, DT - How far is too far? - At what point does price reverse? - Where are traders unable to find trades? - Where are they likely to find them? - If they can not find them in one direction is there a change in behavior trading in the other direction? - What is the change? (How and where). I have needed more structure to my whole approach. It has gotten better but still is off. With continual study through replay and utilizing my "chant" my goal is to reduce/eliminate my tendency to handcuff myself with over analyzing what is in front of me. I want to have a far better understanding of my baby...the NQ. Thanks to DB, Niko, and KP for their comments/help thus far.

To keep myself focused this will be my monk chant. Line breaks...what is happening? How (ticker energy) and where (context)? .........NEXT......... Opposing SLA entry? Why? Dog continuation? Why? Sideways do nothing? Why? If in, hold or exit? Why? .........NEXT......... While keeping in mind context/overall wave structure - speed, duration, extent - 50%, LSH, LSL Make this robotic remembering this is traders able/unable to find/make trades. Follow this day after day and if you don't know why or why not do nothing and wait.

Area 1. Price broke above 40 and out of the hinge from the open. Reasons for taking this trade was because it is a typical SLA trade. Pretty straight forward. Reasons why I did not take this trade was because I had 45 as a prev swing high and the recent upper most level above which no trades were found. price got there and rapidly rejected it. Price then hesitated and in my mind taking that trade we would be playing the BO of the swing and given the behavior of the ticker I passed on that. I suppose at that point I was waiting for it to fail essentially and then look for the short op instead of playing what was in front of me. The trade could have been scratched and then the short taken which is essentially what happened next. Area 2. I was watching price hesitate and it did not seem to want to go higher yet was inching higher and higher. The reason I took this was because I said ok we are now above 45 here is another RET if we don't pop off on this one i'll scratch for a small loss then look for the short op or if we get a fast REJ after the DL break i'll take the dog. Price popped for a second then came back and I scratched the trade. Reasons I should not have taken the trade was essentially not following my own rules 1. taking the first RET which I did not and 2. not taking the subsequent RET as the first entry into a move. Price was hesitating and did not decisively break the swing high. What does that tell you? Area 3. In my mind what goes on when a line breaks is I kind of simultaneously think about dogs and the entry in the opposite direction. On this I did put in a buy entry first. Typically what I have found is there are differing breeds of dogs. This type of dog or anticipated dog is more of a quick rapid rejection after the line breaks leading to a continuation. Context definitely comes into play with dogs in general. Once we failed to move anywhere close to my entry order I flipped instantly to the short side and took that short to the bottom of the range. On the exit...my initial thought was since we fired off into the bottom and then stopped for the most part right at the bottom I was going to exit right at 33 leaning more towards playing the range game. Essentially doing that would have only gotten me another 2.5 points which if we continued and broke through the bottom making an "extra" 2.5 points would have most likely been less than what could have been achieved if we continued lower. I waited for a tighter SL to break before exiting in case there was to be a bounce vs. a break. Area 4. After the tiny hinge broke I was thinking short which would not have been triggered. Since after the hinge broke and we broke another DL and then the short was not triggered I started to think if this is another breed of dog. We also held above 45 and were not too interested in going to far below the new high of 48. This caused me to consider a long trade. Reasons for not taking the long was a bit more of uncertainty and maybe continuing on moving sideways for that moment in time. Being unsure (not that one can ever be fully sure) but more unsure caused me to not take it. Area 5. Here if a tighter SL was drawn after the tiny hinge this would be a typical SLA trade. Still considered sideways movement so I passed however this was the first break RET for a long while generally moving up for the day and we were still trading above the dark gray DL. 48 was rej and I suppose this could have and should have been taken with the expectations of get to 55/57 at the least. Question: What do you guys do with trades that are not triggered? Do you take the other side as a dog? Do you wait for the next break/RET? Would you considered a trade that is not triggered doglike action?

50% of this last hourly upward move is about 14.

Looking to see what happens above 40 and/or below 34. Above us I'd be watching 55-57 and 78-80 as we approach 3700. Below 24, 12-14, 04 and 85.

I call a dog a dog moreso when there is no SLA entry otherwise as in this case it's just a sell wave that doesn't travel very far (although everything is a "wave"). That's just my take on it. A dog to me has almost a gotcha kind of feel to it. Again these are just my definitions.

Questions I am asking myself now are the importance of AMT vs. SLA or which should be of more importance/when? Today even continuing through lunch straight SLA does pretty well even considering the range. Another is, if you are waiting for a price dictated by AMT once price gets there it is time to act. The question becomes should the time of day matter. Say we are waiting for 24 and we don't get there until 2pm or 3pm should we not be there when that happens? Yesterday close to lunch we rejected the same area and if we are trading using AMT should we have not entered a short somewhere along the ride down to 85 for a nice trade? I think if we are waiting for a price we need to be available when price gets there and use the SLA to trade around that extreme. Yesterday and today both presented opportunities to do so. As an extension of my first chart here is what I may have done or may have been thinking moving more toward 11:30. These are marked in pure hindsight where the first chart was live in action. Continuing... Trade 7: Short. This trade idea would not have been triggered can't say why or why not I would have taken it or not since I was not watching in RT but I'd say given the sharpness of the down wave, reversing from 24, and breaking the DL would be good reasons to take it. Trade 8: Long. Also untriggered. Reasons for taking it would be SLA. Reasons against would be 50% of the downwave being tested and we are trading back towards 24. Trade 9: Short. Dog. Can't make it to 24 and rejected 50% so I may have thought short especially with an untriggered long. Again this is hindsight off a static chart so I don't know the pace etc. I suppose I could have replayed it before checking back and knowing what happened. Big DUH on that one. Oh well. Trade 10: Long. The SLA Long would have eventually been triggered. Same reasons against this trade as trade 8 that was untriggered. Since we made a LH and HL I may have been thinking sideways action at that point. Trade 11: Short. It's what I call the "wave break" again. Similar to the earlier trades of 2 and 3. If the long was taken then 50% rejected and price not hitting 24 a potential SAR would have been in the works getting us into that next downwave. Again I still may have been thinking sideways but an even longer term DL would have been broken and the structure of the waves started to change. The selling wave from about 27 to 18 was probably the sharpest and fastest of the day and then the next buying wave makes it a little past half way, can't get back to 24 and takes maybe a minute or two longer then the selling wave. Trade 12: Short. If trade 11 is not taken then we have the typical SLA short trading back towards the mean. We end up getting back to 11/10 at the top of the ON range after hesitating at the mean area of 12/14. Reasons for this trade is at that point there is a definite change in how price is moving and not many trades were found above 24. Getting in at trade 11 would have been ideal to give price more room but even so 14,12, and 10 would have to be watched closely. A SLA long could have been taken off the bounce at 10 but I may have called it a day after those trades. We ended up moving back to 24 and we are now continuing higher at 35 now. Will continue to think about what suits me better either waiting for a level then using SLA or using SLA straight out the gate intelligently while keeping AMT in the back of my mind.

It's not that I don't know what to do I just didn't do anything. I'll review it and post when I get home. I think I was lulled to sleep by my waiting and it became ugh dummy and right as I was finishing my first post we began to rev for 24. Don't know what has happened since but I'll be back in a bit.

Nothing was officially entered just observed and marked as I pondered it. I have more review to do. Have a few things to take care of. Part of my plan was waiting for 24 yet I was completely inactive around that level.

No trades today. I did not expect that to happen from the opening. I did mark trades that I considered. I mark them when I consider them and not in hindsight and I suppose since it's sim I could just take them and see but I am trying to make this as real as possible as in what I would have done if it were live. Trade 1: Long. 04 held, traded above 07 SL from prev down move broke had a RET. Pretty straight forward. The reason for not trading it was we were still within the overnight range with the upper limit at 10. Trade 2: Short. DL broke had a RET etc. Reason for not taking it was we were at the area of the mean of the TR and we had broken above 10. On the trip back down towards 10 the pace was slower and did not seem to have much of a push behind it. We were also above 50% of the previous up wave that caused the BO of the ON range. Trade 3: Long. Something I have been sort of playing around with is if the short was taken and the wave fails anywhere above the 50% level of the prev wave a SAR can be done. It almost feels like a dog kinda trade but on a larger level if that makes sense. Like a dog wave. For this I've called it the wave break were the wave does not move past 50% and then the SL or DL breaks. The goal is to get into the next wave as close to the turning point as possible. That has been my goal with most trades and typically the first RET with a typical SLA entry does that. With this "wave break" entry it essentially is getting me into the next up wave of a larger move if that makes sense. With this entry price also held above the BO level. It would have been entered again at the mean so it wasn't take because of that. With this type of entry I would look to see if the prev swing breaks or gets rejected etc. I also would expect a RET at some point to happen after the entry and preferably after the swing breaks. Trade 4: Long. Typical SLA entry. Break RET. Not taken as we are close to 24. On the flip side since given the nature of how price was moving it seemed that we were going to get to 24 so it could have been a quick 4+ point trade I guess. Trade 5: Short. Considered it but was not too confident about it. If this trade took off it would have meant a quick vrev at 24 which I suppose could have happened but I have not seen too too many of those types of moves. The DL broke and that was the RET I saw. The caution was 50% of that second up wave was tested with no follow thru at the time. The bar that causes the RET makes a LH and given the longer term DL held as well my initial thinking was moving sideways. We moved a little lower with no real push through 50% and then we hinged. Trade 6: Long. This one I was also a bit iffy on and I'll just come out and say it was because of the line placement. Reasons for the long is price held above 50% of the entire up move for the day thus far and it took longer to move 50% than the prev up move took to cover the range. The break from the hinge did not go very far. A shorter term SL broke and the longer term SL was poked. After we didn't make it to 50% we made a HL make by the RET. The idea was looking to test 24 again. Reasons for not taking it was thinking we may continue sideways if the mean of that small hinge holds or we don't accelerate through the longer term SL. Also in terms of thinking a bit about risk reward was if we do get to 24 and the exit is on a DL break how many points will we really collect with that trade?

Hmm. May sit back and watch how today unfolds. Now we are sitting in somewhat of a hinge btw about 11/10 and 02. If we break up I'll see what happens when price gets up into the 20s if it passes through 12/14. If we break below 02 a short can be taken and if we move below the area of 93-95 I'd expect to get to 85. If we hesitate there then continue or blow right through it then 70 would be next and so on. This whole area of prices is interesting and seems to be an area where price can turn just about anywhere. I am wondering if just waiting for 85 or 24 would be a better play overall carrying less risk. Sure maybe a 20 point move gets passed up but given where we are how likely is it to chop around. Not that this is part of how I might trade but as we get closer to the holiday weekend would that have anything to do with more sideways or choppy action? Obviously I will let the market dictate that but just curious. I posted a 60 min yesterday with some levels of interest. The area btw 04 and 14 seems dicey so we will see what happens.

Was bored made an art project. 85 again . . .

No trades today. Considered two shorts and one long however given the behavior I did not want to take the risk. Most of my thoughts are posted above as well. First considered trade (short). Price broke below 07 a second time and made a LL. Price traveled back above 07 however it was quickly rejected. Given the structure of the waves at that moment in time, if that behavior continued that trade would not have gone very far so I passed. Second considered trade (short). Here I was also seeing if a long op presented itself. There was a change in behavior. We had a DB then the supply line broke. A long was thought about however we got back to 07 with no RET (sort of doglike action) and then 07 was rejected so I considered short. Again given the nature of the behavior I passed. The fact that we had a DB or tested the area btw 00-98 a few times with no follow through and we broke a swing high contained within the SL caused me to pass on it. Third considered trade (long). Following along from the 2nd considered trade I don't know if this is considered a DB but we tested a point below the 50% area of the up wave twice with no follow through and as explained with the 2nd considered trade we had no FT at 00-98, SL broke, minor swing broke etc. This long would have put us back into the range which I did have in my written plan prior but again given the nature of the day as whole at this point it just didn't seem worth it. Where would be go, to the mean of the ON range? The opening high? The other side of the range? Taking an entry at 06 would mean 6-9 points if we get to the mean of the ON range or to the opening high. Is that worth it given how the waves were forming? If we happened to get to 18-21 wouldn't have been so bad but again how likely was that at that moment in time? As I say this we are up to 17 now but look at all the action before that point.

For anyone following along or would like to shed some insight on this...I have a few questions regarding the supply/demand dynamic. With regards to today. The first 30 minutes would it be fair to say that there was a decent amount of interest by buyers at these prices given the nature of the overlapping bars and how the buying waves cut pretty deep into the selling waves? In my head that is what I was thinking but also saying that overall supply is greater than the demand due to the lower highs and lower lows. Also is the inability for traders to find a trade what creates the pressure. As in if a seller can't find a buyer at a higher price the pressure is for him to lower his price? I feel like I grasp that dynamic in the creation of a swing high but at a swing low it changes for me. At a swing high it's a seller unable to find a buyer but at a swing low is it a buyer unable to find a seller or is it that enough buyers stepped in to halt the selling? Thinking about it on one side of the coin as either just demand/lack of or just on the selling side it makes more sense to me. Seller can't find a buyer (lack of demand) price is lowered now buyers come in (demand) price rises. Flipping that on its head gets slightly confusing to me. Another example is a downtrend. It's not necessarily a seller unable to find a buyer is it so they continue lowering their price? That way it makes it seem wording it that way is those that are selling are the ones losing out so to speak or taking less but in a downtrend money is made by selling. Or are short sellers in control (which they are) then what is the dynamic in that regard? Trying to think more in terms of traders but for me to do that I need to have a better handle on the actual dynamic/mindset of the traders. Today thinking more in terms of supply/demand, buyers/sellers, buying pressure/selling pressure kept me out of a day that would not have been all that successful so I would like to get deeper into that mindset. Any comments are welcomed.

Waiting for price to exit the area btw 21 and 07. I will watch to see how/if price breaks out and trade the SLA according. SLA tactics are break/RETs or dogs nothing else/nothing "fancy." If we move out of the range up or down and the first entry taken is unsuccessful at what price did we turn? How far out did we travel? Does a dog show up or do we get a new signal in the other direction? If the next signal is taken we will be trading back toward the range so keep an eye on 21, 12-14, and 07 and watch the reactions or lack thereof at those prices. If we do not travel "too far" out and it is not decisive wait to see if we exit the opposite end first before making another decision.

Another day of thinking too much vs. just acting. Start it out with a rapid rejection of 70 and nothing do about that as it wasn't what I had planned. Next, (green box) did not take long given I was looking for 90 to break first before I entered a trade. Given how quickly we moved up and what I have experienced in the past I can't lie, I was thinking about a reversal at 90 given the sharpness of the move as opposed to just watching what was really going on. First trade entered was a short that I scratched quickly. Price just didn't seem to want to move at that moment and given how strong we moved up I did not think price would move very far so I exited. Could have been +1 on that so not too big of a deal. Noticed what could be a dog? Did not enter given we were trading above 90 and the first short did not amount to much also I find dogs going with the trend to be more effective thus far. We move relatively quickly from where that dog (if it even was a dog) could have been entered. Price stops right at the minor swing in the up move and goes no further and stops above 50%. Another doglike move? This time a short was entered and again as I do this in my mind I'm saying why this one and not the previous short? I take it anyway "just in case." The trade gets stopped out leaving me wondering whether this type of action warrants a SAR? Next trade is a long trade which I am ok with. The exit was ok, price seemed to hesitate at the swing high and although the exit was early price did not go much after my exit before the would be exit. I am finding it very interesting that what's in me says to act and I do not and then what's in me says not to act and I act. I really wonder why that is. Is it fear? If it is fear why do I act when I know I shouldn't? Or is that a separate fear of it's own? Fear to be wrong or lose so no action, then fear of missing out so act when you shouldn't. It's actually not even a matter of not acting but if I would act correctly first those next actions don't even exist. Not taking the first long was silly but in my mind I was saying can we really maintain this move? If I took it and the move could not be maintained even less than what it was so be it just exit. Things to improve on. Just act. Stop being a baby and just do it because more times than not given what I am seeing it's not an incorrect action. The trade may not go far or even be a winner but it is not incorrect according to the plan. How I do act or have been acting lately is more incorrect according to the plan. I have been trying to get into the first entry into the waves and avoiding the subsequent ones since I should already be in the wave. My first short I do not mind the second based on my experiences thus far is unacceptable. My hesitation on what should have been the first long was because we rejected 70 and to me that was the first entry into this new up wave and the hesitation btw 88 and 84 was the second best place to enter/the parabolic rise that has gotten me many times before. After the first short was scratched to me a dog entry is a beginning of a new wave within a given move (just my terminology) so that would be the first entry and the second short I did take would be the second entry which again as I have said in previous posts me and second entries just haven't worked out overall, some yes, most no. This leads me to after the second short and whether that is a DTDB. Since we got to the last minor swing in the up move and did further and was above 50% could the fact that on the second trip back towards 50% we don't go anywhere could that be taken long? Is that the first entry into the next up wave? The fact that we shot sorta straight down for 2 mins and just didn't go very far is that doglike action? Then we have the hesitation. Now what's more important the fact that 50%ish held or that we are currently moving down and getting another retracement. Is a short like that really warranted is we fire off into 50% with no follow through? Even more so this is the third time price has retraced and we only made it halfway back down from the original up move. What does that tell you? All of this kind of stuff is going on in my head all at once which I guess is why I act the ways I do sometimes. Moving forward the plan must be followed and I think I need to i'll say be a little more lenient with the context. Just because you have an area of interest does not mean anything interesting is going to happen there. Price clearly was going up then you clearly had a hesitation. That's what happened and when that happens what do you do? What should be done according to the plan? With all these silly things I am still on the positive side of the coin. Main thing is just working on the initial action.

Plan is to wait for 90 or 65 and see what happens. Based on where price sits it seems like this whole area is a dicey area with hinges and means etc.

Ehh PnL wise I suppose. Was +3.25. Trading wise I sort of feel I got a little lucky. I wanted to enter before my first entry and I didn't. Everything just moved so fast so I took what I would consider the second entry which puts us kind of right in the middle of things at that moment in time, not saying the middle would have done one thing or the other but from what I've noticed through all of this is that it is riskier. Second entries have not treated me well either yet I still took this one. My first exit kept me out of where most people entered long and had I exited the first trade earlier I probably would have entered in the same spot which would have caused me to miss the entry that I did take. That turned out to be a +1 trade. Entering where most entered long and losing I probably would have re-entered long right in the middle again where again others entered long and would have lost that trade as well. The last trade I didn't even want to take but "just in case" we dropped further I took it. I don't want to talk about feelings but there is a definite difference i've noticed in days like yesterday and the other days where we have had pretty much straight shots in one direction vs. days like today. I'm starting to try to avoid more of the range type of day or at least wait for price to break decisively in one direction if it doesn't break or happens to break later in the day so be it there will be plenty of opportunities in the future. I have also found two probably huge errors in my trading. 1. Afraid to miss the trend so I trade in ranges just in case and 2. fear the reversal while within a trend type of day. I guess that's a stereotypical amateur. It's silly because I know it, I see it, everything in me says okay take this DTDB and I don't and then days like today it's like are you really going to enter here silly??? I almost want to take this person that is inside of me and put it in my chair and let it trade lol. I also don't really "feel" emotional when I trade I think I just over think and over analyze too too much. One thing I have noticed though is that if you catch the right entry at the right time it is so much easier to stay "in the flow" and then you almost don't even have to think about anything. Ehh that's my whiny rant for the week lol.

So weird how I feel like I trade like an animal when it's a range entering a bunch of times but on more of a trendy kind of day I do not. Interesting. Today making trades around 50 was probably not the best strategy although I was minimally successful today. I was ready to enter short the first trade at 65.75 but it all happened so fast so took the next RET short. Waited to see if we followed through and we did not so I exited. Entered long next RET and rejecting 52. Next we traded below 50 had a RET so went short. Stopped out on that one. I guess had I waited for 40 to be tested that would have saved me a bit but it is what it is.

Waiting to see what happens around 70 and 50. Using the SLA to judge what the market is telling me around those levels and trade accordingly.

I may have had a bit of an a ha moment. While I missed the TDTDB/should have stayed in a lot dawned on me. First was my exit. While I was about to hit the close button I said to myself wait...I am about to "buy" to close this position, how many other traders are thinking the same thing? How many traders are "buying" to close there position as well. If enough are buying of course the price will continue to go up. The pace/character of this buying was different then the selling on the way down and this is all taking place at an area where this type of action was expected. Also the behavior of the first 20 minutes or so was also different then the previous two days another clue that maybe we will have more of a trend type day. We popped out of the daily hinge with not much follow through and with the area of about 50 being the mean of that hinge combined with the behavioral change around the open was that an area likely to be tested? I did not necessarily miss TDTDB i just did not take it because my mind just started to think more about the psychology of traders. How many traders might be thinking exactly like I am. Are they "fearing" a reversal, do they just want to take profits? How far does this buying really go? How fast is it taking place in relation to the behaviors before it? Where is it happening? Where/how does it end? Right as I exited I said ok where's the dog? Sure enough two minutes later there it was. I don't know this was just a very interesting morning and maybe a shift in my mentality or more so of putting myself into the mind of other traders. Could using one's own thoughts be used as a tool for what other traders might be thinking/feeling as well. If I am confused what other traders are? If I am fearful who else is? If like today I am taking profits whether correct or incorrect who else is?

Plan for the day. Price levels of interest moving forward for the most part are still the same.

With the double bottom, do you just take it or do you look at a smaller interval for a RET?

Trade 1: After we move from 96 took the first RET long which failed. The green box represents a price of 07 that I considered going long but did not because of "thinking" a hing was beginning to form. I need to let the market show me a hinge has formed and not anticipate it. From the open after the move from 96 price makes a higher high and a higher low if that CWS trade fails then we could have been forming a hinge. Had I made that trade the day would have been profitable. Trade 2: Would not have happened if the first was taken. Also, these second entries have not panned out well for me yet I still take them. Trading right into 14 may have/was foolish also. Trade 3: Re-entry. Given that price did not trade over 14 I suppose it was a mistake in attempting a to re-enter but this trade was stopped and reversed relatively quickly. We failed to break the swing high and every long trade either failed or did not go very far. Trade 4: the SAR from trade 3. An SLA "signal" to short began to form and given the failure of previous trades SAR was in order. Was the trade of the day. Given what I consider the poor entry/the same mistake I keep making on trade 2 the total for the day was only -1.75. If the green box was taken as opposed to trade 2 the day would have been +4ish. Obviously that is nothing special but given the type of day I would say not horrible.

Since we are moving down if we continue this movement at the open i'll look for a RET to get on board short. Since traders were not too interested in trading over 20 and we are now below 04 maybe they find trades at 3590,70 or 50. We'll see. If this down move breaks up at the open I'll take the RET long keeping an eye on 3610,20, 40, 57,67,80. I am aware of these levels as landmarks to help me gauge the movement of price. Today I will focus more on the SLA. If we happen to move sideways or range I may just sit on my hands.