wmck6167

WOW. Great. just would like to ask one information: "Volume traded: 34,230.80 lots Number of trades: 316 trades" what is his average net trades(buy and sell) amount? in 1st wk. I just curious if he has $2500 with 400 leverage, then he could leverage to 1 million as working capital at the beginning. I also curious a math question, the capability of profitability in stock market should be non-linear(or linear) with leverage? when increasing the leverage( I think it's an interactive variable, not a independent), is there a threshold that lost probability will be always larger than the wining probability? Just for fun.:missy:

".. You’ll develop a system that enables you to make money without predicting the markets." In that case, machine trading should be always beat the market? Just curius and Happy 2016 year and happy Traders Lab. Thanks to provide so many insights on trading. I am not a experienced trader, but have an interests to step in this field. How could I find a job in this industry from your experience? Or could someone have opportunity to provide it to me? Thanks.

Hi, still have question to ask. Is System trading using rules to trade? The other is "time". Sometime signals appeared at low time frame, but it disapperred on anther time frame. For example, the signal showed up in 5 minutes but dissappeared in 1hr time frme. If you have set up at price, then you might interact with this signal. But afterward, in 1Hr, you found you are one of the contributers for the lost. How do you deal with time issue on system trading regarding to the singal issue you just mentioned. Thanks.

Thanks for your comments. However I may not completely agree with you. "The only important value in system trading is to do everything you can to avoid missing signals... " I just wonder if system is again you, it might put you under more risk if you just purely follow the signal, in an interactive system.:missy: It might be riskier that you were cooperated to "lost" more if you just follow the signal rules if market were against you. Our eyes and feelling are always eay be trapped...Maybe. Just for fun.

Thanks for your feedback. It's a great comment. Just I have some other thoughts about this. "...With system trading, missing ANY signals is big no no..." If all of traders follow the rules, will system stop draw down process when enough lost occurred at -1/3 position since eveyone are so smart? Here I think you meant in trading system. What if trading system is conflicted with value system? will you still follow the trading signal? (I assume "time frame" is not considered in this argument) I meant in under value situation, the draw down process induces trading signal, will you still follow the trading signal to cut the lost? Trading and value sometime, I think, maybe it like a double edge of sword? Just curious of some thoughts. When system is against you, defensive strangety is working well, but when system is in the favor of cooperated with you, will you still following this rule? "missing ANY signals is big no no." Thanks and you have a great day.:missy:

Just guess, if you can not control other people lost or input money. In a simple interactive system, just between you and the system. In an 20% drawdown, if you a smarter trader, you can cut the lost at 1/3(-7%), which means system can go up 20% if lost -20%, then you probably can leverage 3x, since once you cash out you winning money, system might go down if there no people contritube money into system. But in an continute game, others might have a chance to get a higher reward after you cash out your profit early for capital rebalancing. This is my observation, I am not sure it's right or wrong. Have a fun.:crap:

Here are my thought and observation. It might not be right. If the trading system is a tool to fullfill the value system, then if you can caculate the values well about an equity, then you probably will have a lot of chances to know the reasonable draw down process without knowing the details of curve and peaks. I guess and good luck.

"...That’s the kind of freedom trading offers: you choose when to retire." It's really a unbeatable attraction, and beautiful and respected addiction. I always said to my kids : Welcome to this beautiful "Zombie" industry. It's a great lead. Thanks and cheers.

"Strategy A: Growth: 343.80% Drawdown: 37.45% Monthly: 19.09%" Some math thoughts about this performance. If you can predict the edge of drawdown for 9%, you prevent the lost and cut the lost on -3% and you also can predict the fuure stock progress and make the profit on +9%, on a delta 18% stock increased, you are super to make a 6% profit. If you are in this trading system, does mean you leverage a lot(10x). I meant you have 37.45% drawdown, you are luck enough to make around 25% narmal on this drawdown if nobody add money to this sytem. Just a thought. Cheers.

This is a great experience sharing. Thanks. After a long period of time thinking and confusions about the market efficiency, I think when market asks you to "cooprate to lost", you had better to be lost in order to reduce the lost; if you want to win, you probably hurt more by adding more capitals. But just what if the stocks are undervalued during drawdown, I feels that it become harder to justify. Smart and right? Probably hard to keep both. Cheers.

"He loved football and piano. He went to Harvard for a PhD program but he was unable to finish the program. Following that, he tried a number of jobs, like playing harpsichord, writing and driving a taxi..." He is a quite special person, amazing. "4. Don’t follow the masses, for they’re always wrong. When most traders move in one direction, then the trend is about to change. If the masses were always right, most traders would be rich. But this isn’t so. For example, there’ll soon be a breakout after most traders have noticed an equilibrium phase. " Recently I am thinking of the difference between craft and art. Maybe know what to do can be specialized in craft, but maybe need to know why you do that, then you could reach to the level of art. Thanks so much share so many interesting great traders and investor stories. Cheers,

"yeh sure but simplify these problems and come with simple solutions its not simply at all! Especially for a new traders" You are absoultely right. I am a new trader every time when I looks at the market. I think probably it's because of the focus. If we focus on the right thing(tried to understand the inherent (hidden?) wisdom of market), then we probably would have less distraction, immagination and speculation from this complex system. Cheers.

" .... We simplify these problems and come with simple solutions...." A Great Say in trading!!! "3. The qualities of a good trader aren’t measured by her/his attitude when things are right, when things are fine, and during winning streaks; but when the road is rough, tough and during losing streaks." A Wisdom Say!!! An admired person and career. Cheers.

".....Some traders love the action, some love the dream of making money, some love the opportunity to work for themselves—but many don’t love the work itself: the effort of mastering patterns in demand and supply." There is a wisdom here - mastering patterns in demand and supply. Then it comes out a question, will future demand determined by the past demand and supply? Maybe most of time, and if it is, it's great and thanks wall st. Great for your post. Cheers.

Wells, there are a lot of wisdoms I can dig out in this thread. Reasoning and logics (rationality) may still belong to expectation category when compared to reactive mental state. I always wonder whether R&L can be thrived in interactive system eventually. If you love the game, then fundamentally reasoning and logics might not be supportable from the very beginning since "love" can not be reasoning and be logical... Am I right? Cheers.:missy:

"Once that money leaves their pocket and is in the market-it's no longer any individual's money. It is the markets money, and being made up of all our psychologies/fears/greeds-it will do what it does. I am merely an account operator who lends money to gamblers to play the game they love. I'm enjoying myself." It's a great say. Tks.

"Is Discipline Enough to Succeed?" If it's a fair game in interactive system. You only can control the lost part. You win is determined by other's lost. Therefore, discipline can only control the lost part. That may means discipline can only improve the lost less. So I think maybe "Discipline is better to prevent failure" maybe a better statement. Cheers and thanks for provide a great place to think.

"TRADERS REVERT TO THEIR PRIMITIVE INSTINCTS UNDER PRESSURE" You are absolutely right. Interestingly, it brings out another interesting question. Will well trained traders or well mind predictable traders be the big winner in the interactive games? Furthermore, will MBA trained be able to create a great business? For me, there seems to have more complicated factors hidden behind the scene. Just for fun.

it's very valuable for you to point out the risk first. I am just a learner. First, what's the drawdown? What caused it? How is it balanced based on price before it reached the edge? Then who did it.....(I really dislike it, but can we have a wining opportunity without drawdown process?how is the capital to be balanced based on this process?) You are right, if you lost 30%, you need to make 42.8% to back to original price position. But my question, what if you sold at 30%, stock start to come back from this point?(other suffers will be glad that you donate the money) I do not have a heart to buy back immediately after a big lost.... But I feel very lucky if the drawdown keep go down to 40%. If I knew I am going to have 30% drawdown, I defintely will stop the lost at 7.5%. Could I predict the drawdown amount? Maybe. Just for fun and pray for those lost money caused not by greedy.

If this is kind of true. You want to win more and lose less during the cycle of games by using different strategies. I feel that time factor is hard to control and is being hidden. And furthermore the "win" is not really controled by you, although "I can win " is deeply implanted in your mind and subconscious in this interactive system. What a tricky for this mind game is!:doh:

Hi, I totally agree with you. Here is my angle, it looks like market is interacted with you to reach the purpose of game. So it's hard to escape since you may be the cause. The purpose of game is seemed to be related to balance of capital flow from my observation, until it reaches to “the edge”, it won't stop. Just a personal thinking. Cheers.

The existence of "smart money" might be a good tool or design for you to handle the risks, from my point of view. In interactive system, the only one you can control is "you", but most of time, you found you really can not control youself. Purposely design a tool or system to control self is indeed not so bad. "smart money" might help you to forsee the risks in the future, benefits on control on "self". It's existence may not be so improtance for other side, but for your side, maybe some help, I think. Cheers.

Hi, there are a lot of truths on your post! But knowing is one thing, doing is another thing. I believe it comes from the complex of human mind. For my trading journey, at the beginning, indeed I did not utilize any trading skills. I just used a mental book used for war, not on the stocks market. Then pure obey and thinking, then keep thinking and tried to follow the righteousness in mind. I found that I can make money without utilizing any trading skills. It's kind of step in "innovation room" without bringing any materials. There are a lot of frustration because of not following the rules and righteousness consciously. Something complex coming from the mind....... I did not utilize any trading skills but I can make money. But I believe the truth is that the "winning" is not controlled by me,the max I only can control is "no lost", in an interactive system. Thanks trader lab teach me Mr. Livermore. I start to try to figure out what's way of the game operated. Just a question, some of good traders eventually stepped into company management. Is that meant creating value in equity can not be controlled(or created) from the trading. Trading is just a kind of "gatekeeper"? Just curious & thanks.

Well, I got your points. Here is my view. I tried to interact with the truths people bring to me, not interact with the "bullshit" you mentioned. In that case, I can focus on the new thing I can dig it out. I also enjoy and learn something new more in addition the "making money", something hidden behind the game. Indeed, when I focus on something above "making money" ,which in the past helped me many times to reduce the risk of lost. Just share my experience. Best to you to have great trades!