Duarte

The recent fall in NASDAQ reflects the great dependence on and affinity with the movements seen on the Apple which, by its turn influence the remaining indexes (S&P 500, DAX). This fall shows us that we can look quickly at the Apple chart to help us in market analysis. Both have the possibility of having the same formation (Head and Shoulders) with the difference that Appl broke down one day before as compared with the NASDAQ. Now, I'm going to wait the confirmation that the rising support trend line in Appl is broken.

I have wanted to try trade without any stop loss because I take a long time to put the stop loss in all assets but the market fell and I took time to act. In rare situations I'll consider the possibility to buy and sell partial positions and I will not use the amount that I have determined at the start. (4000 USD or 3200 EUR) This would have been one of these situations. I'll spend more money on commissions, but I'll protect the portfolio.

The following charts provide an overview of the portfolios evolution since the beginning. The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolio and the blue line shows an exponential moving average. (Updated on Fridays) I made a small correction: On October 5, the stock LTON closed at 2, 54, but I updated the portfolio with the day low price (2, 47). The portfolio chart has already been corrected.

Below there are the Portfolios.

The lower profitability of the US STOCK PORTFOLIO is related with the lower performance of the Nasdaq 100 index.

Below are the Portfolios.

Below is the GOLD SILVER STOCK PORTFOLIO. It has not started well...

I still feel that the PHLX Gold/Silver Index (XAU), after rising considerably, may have a correction soon, but as long as the trend remains up it is possible to go higher. I will expect that Gold/Silver market continues to go up, as long as the XAU continues to close above the previous low 185,85 and key support. If close daily below 185,85 I consider the possibility of exit.

As was observed before, it seems that the ACWI (iShares MSCI All Country World Index Fund) is following the same pattern. I expect that overall market (USA, Germany,...) continues to go up, as long as the ACWI continues to close above the previous low 46,48 and key support. If close daily below 46,48 I consider the possibility of exit.

I´ll buy: ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF

Below are the Portfolios.

It made no difference because the markets have not risen, but my goal is to communicate the trades before market opening.

In this thread, I'll pick stocks that have a high risk. The leveraged ETFs also have a high risk.

I thought I had written this post here at 08:22 AM, about the same time I wrote for the thread "Portfolios (Gold and Silver) Stocks and ETFs", but some error happened and I copied this post again. I apologize for the delay, I don´t know what happened.

The futures market is rising. I guess that the pattern will be repeated and the market will rise. My current market posture is bullish. This means that I´ll buy ETFs and stocks. I'll buy the almost the same stocks and ETFs, but this time I will not use the emergency stop. I´ll use the emergency stop at a later date. So... I´ll buy: S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF ProSharesUltra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF Rentech, Inc. (RTK) Wilshire State Bank (WIBC) 8X8 INC (EGHT) Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) LINKTONE LTD ADS (LTON) I picked 5 stocks which are in concert with the market direction. All of the stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

I was expecting a decline, but maybe it will not happen yet. So… I will buy: SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP) Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shrs (NUGT) iShares Silver Trust (SLV) ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) VelocityShares 3x Long Silver ETN (USLV) GREAT PANTHER SILVER LTD (GPL) NEVSUN RESOURCES LTD (NSU) FORTUNA SILVER MINES INC (FSM) I picked 3 stocks, which are in concert with the market direction. All of the stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

About a month ago, the ACWI rise after 11 days of declines. Now, there are also 11 days of declines, but the breakout not happened yet. In perhaps a few days' time, I will understand better what the market is doing.

About a month ago, the ACWI rise after 11 days of declines. Now, there are also 11 days of declines, but the breakout not happened yet. Maybe in a few days, I understand better what the market is doing.

The following charts illustrate the evolution of the Portfolios since the beginning. The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolios and the blue line shows an exponential moving average. The QQQ ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,20 on 09/21/2012. Qty * dividend = 59 * 0,20 = 11,80. This amount I added to the "Nasdaq 100 ETF PORTFOLIO." “Actual Value”: 4277,63 + 11,80= 4289,43 “Closed trades”: 85,93 + 11,80= 97,73 Curiously it was after the dividend, that markets began to fall. The SPY ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,779 on 09/21/2012. Qty * dividend = 28 * 0,779 = 21,81. This amount I added to the “S&P 500 ETF PORTFOLIO". “Actual Value”: 4325,95 + 21,81= 4347,76 “Closed trades”: 85,93 + 21,81= 107,74 Curiously it was after the dividend, that markets began to fall. The SSO ETF distributes dividends quarterly. The last dividend was 0,1180 on 09/25/2012. Qty * dividend = 69 * 0,1180 = 8,14. This amount I added to the “S&P 500 DOUBLE-LEVERAGED PORTFOLIO ". “Actual Value”: 4445,01 + 8,14= 4453,15 “Closed trades”: 205,01 + 8,14= 213,15

The PHLX Gold/Silver Index (XAU) is up since the end of July. After rising considerably, a fall can happen in the short term. Because of this, I'm waiting for something that makes me decide to buy. I would prefer, since I'm out, a decline in the market, but Mr. Market says: "Prefer whatever you like. I don't care."

The EXS1 ETF (DAX index) has reached its emergency stop. At the moment there are no open positions in the portfolios. My current market posture is neutral. Below is the DAX ETF PORTFOLIO.

If the market falls, then it will be possible to buy at lower prices and that is positive. At this time, all hypotheses are possible.

There is only an open position, EXS1 (DAX ETF PORTFOLIO)

There are no open positions in the other portfolios. All trades have reached their emergency stop.

DAX ETF PORTFOLIO UPTDATE