Duarte

New Positions. US Stock Portfolio. I will buy : Wilshire Bancorp Inc (WIBC) Wilshire Bancorp Inc had broken the 50-day moving average resistance. I think it is likely that price will continue to rise. Wilshire Bancorp Inc's net cash provided by operating activities increased from 2011 to 2012.

Nikkei monthly chart

I'll try to explain why the S&P 500 will be much higher in 5 years. (It's a guess, not a certainty.) Chart 1 - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between March 1964 and January 2013. My guess about what is happening is that the S & P 500 since 2000 is following the path between 1968 and 1983. This suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term. Chart 2 - The following chart shows the Price ROC indicator between March 1964 and January 2013. The triple bottom pattern that the indicator did in 1994 was repeated between 2011 and 2012. After the triple bottom pattern in 1994, the S&P 500 rose during 5 years. This also suggests that the S&P 500 may rise in the long term.

The silver and gold chart has formed a pennant/flag pattern and the breakout has occurred. This trend is likely to continue. It seems to me a good time and opportunity to invest.

Despite the bearish correction, the Philadelphia Gold/Silver continues with the bullish pattern of “higher highs and higher lows”.

The following charts provide an overview of the portfolios evolution since the beginning. The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolio and the blue line shows an exponential moving average. (Updated on Fridays)

Below there are the portfolios update.

The NASDAQ 100 fell -1, 54% this week, which reflects the considerable weight of the Apple in this index and its great dependence on and affinity with the movements seen on the Apple. If the Apple continues to drop, the market will be unable to rise because the NASDAQ influences the remaining indexes. The Apple support lines have been broken, which is a bad sign. The Apple fell the last four consecutive weeks, which does not happen often. Since 2009, this is the third time this happens. In the last two times, the market has recovered very rapidly. The MSCI All Country World Index Fund continues to have higher lows and the SPDR S&P 500 ETF is close to the 50 days moving average where, since June, has reacted positively. This week’s poll of its members by the American Association of Individual Investors is at 44, 5% bearish, only 28, 7% bullish. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a possible bullish signal. It is difficult to predict what will happen, but I still think that the market will rise.

The following charts provide an overview of the portfolios evolution since the beginning. The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolio and the blue line shows an exponential moving average. (Updated on Fridays)

Below there are the portfolios update.

Gold Silver Stock Portfolio. New Positions. I´ll buy: Thompson Creek Metals Co. Inc. (TC) SILVERCORP METALS, INC (SVM) Thompson Creek Metals had broken the ma50 moving average resistance. I think that will continue to rise. I think the correction of the last few weeks is a buying opportunity. SILVERCORP METALS, INC is in concert with the market direction. When the silver/gold starts to rise, the stock will go up too. All 2 stocks mentioned above increased their net cash provided by operating activities from 2010 to 2011.

Today, for example, I had predicted that market was going to fall but I hold the vast majority of positions in the portfolios. This is because I have many open positions and I wouldn't have time to do many updates. I will hold the great majority of positions as long as I believe that the trend will continue.

Below is the US Stock Portfolio Updated.

I sold the stocks for different reasons: 1. I think the markets can go down a few days (Maybe one or two days?) 2. To be possible for me to buy others stocks. 3. LTON´s average daily volume of transactions has remained low and also because the stock it is near to a horizontal line resistance. Despite the low trading volume I don´t put aside to buy again the stock. 4. EGHT and WIBC not rose as much as I expected. I want to buy stocks that go up a little faster.

I will sell: EGHT, WIBC, LTON.

I'll start a New Portfolio. In the “All ETFs Portfolio” I trade ETFs of all markets and indexes in the world. The great majority of Exchange Traded Funds/Indexes that I´ll trade are leveraged, which makes this portfolio a very high risk portfolio. My goal is to follow market trends, and with a higher risk achieve a higher return. The portfolio is composed by 5 ETFs.

We shall see what happens over the next two or three days. For the present, the market is reacting well to supports.

Yesterday the XAU declined during the day but ended up positive. So, the rising support line continues to support despite yesterday's Gold and Silver correction.

The stocks of the US Stock Portfolio and the AAII Investor Sentiment Survey of last week suggest that the uptrend will resume. That´s my guess.

Will Apple´s support line hold? Will SPY´s 50 day moving average support line hold?

The rising support trend line on the XAU daily chart has been broken, but I also see a possible descending wedge. After a downward breakout, price sometimes stops below the wedge and soars upward. The confirmation happens after an upward breakout of the descending resistance line.

The GLD (Gold) has run into resistance and has begun to fall, the SLV (Silver) shows the possibility of a double top. I should've trusted in my feeling. Now, I'm going to wait the confirmation that the rising support trend line in XAU is broken.

I have wanted to try trade without any stop loss because I take a long time to put the stop loss in all assets but the market fell and I took time to act. In rare situations I'll consider the possibility to buy and sell partial positions and I will not use the amount that I have determined at the start. (4000 USD) This would have been one of these situations. I'll spend more money on commissions, but I'll protect the portfolio. I wrote before about how these stocks and leveraged ETFs have a high risk, in particular the NUGT and the DUST are extremely volatile. There are two alternatives, DGLD and UGLD, which tend to be less volatile but do have low volume.

The following charts provide an overview of the portfolios evolution since the beginning. The black line illustrates the evolution of the portfolio and the blue line shows an exponential moving average. (Updated on Fridays)

Below there are the Portfolios.