Duarte

In the first months of this year, the evolution of “buy and hold” portfolios was positive.

My guess is that the S&P 500 will rise to its resistance line, close to the level of 1575. Chart - S & P500 index monthly candlestick chart between May 1999 and March 2013.

I looked for the US stocks on my watch list, and I saw that the great majority is in overbought zone. I'm going to wait a little longerso I can get a better idea of what the market is going to do.

In this thread I will share trade ideas, charts, notes, and some viewpoints. The U.S.Portfolio is a market timing portfolio designed to get profit with market trends. The portfolio invests in companies, exchange traded funds (ETFs), leveraged ETFs, and Inverse ETFs listed on United States Stock Exchanges. In order to see what is going to happen before it takes place the U.S. Portfolio has an important rule: “All trade ideas and stop loss orders must be sent to this thread, with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening, and automatically placed on the market after the market opens. The orders will be executed at the opening price, except in the case of stop loss orders." I consider 5 USD per buy or sell order. The start value of the portfolio is 35 000 USD. For this work I will use my experience, memory, intelligence, technical indicators, some are proprietary other are familiar to all people as Relative Strength Index, MACD or Stochastic Oscillator, and some fundamental indicators. I will try my best … Avoid “end of race” mistakes. If things are not going well I will not put too much money in stock market. Cut my losses instead of hoping that market will come back. Not play like an addict. I will be objective. I will be an investor or a trader, whatever is considered most advantageous in a particular situation. I will control emotions, apply the reason, not repeat mistakes, and think for myself. That´s it. I'll start it soon -------------------------------------- Thank you once again. Duarte

I will stop to manage these portfolios because the whole procedure is time-consuming and exhausting. However, I will continue to manage portfolios in the forum, but with only one market timing portfolio. I'll start next month.

The following tables shows the portfolios update

The following two tables shows the last closed trades

The following table shows the US Stock Portfolio updated

US Stock Portfolio I will buy GRPN Groupon Inc The amount of money $3000 USD

Below there are the portfolios update.

The following table shows the DAX ETF Portfolio updated

Buy Alert: Dax ETF Portfolio ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF with emergency stop at 68,00 The amount of money: € 3200 EUR

The amount of money: $ 4000 USD for each stock or ETF As usual, all entries and emergency stops are automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

The market is going up. I will buy. Buy Alerts: S&P 500 ETF Portfolio S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF S&P 500 ETF Double-Leveraged Portfolio ProSharesUltra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF S&P 500 ETF Triple-Leveraged Portfolio ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF NASDAQ 100 ETF Portfolio ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF NASDAQ 100 ETF Double-Leveraged Portfolio ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF NASDAQ 100 ETF Triple-Leveraged Portfolio ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF US Stock Portfolio Rentech, Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,74 Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) with emergency stop at 3,03 LeapFrog Inc (LF) with emergency stop at 8,65

Generally speaking, over the past two weeks, the markets listed in the Germany went down, but the markets listed in the United States went up. I can see some logic in this because, over the past couple of months, the markets listed in Europe went up more than the markets listed in the United States. However, I feel a little confused, because generally speaking, the markets listed in the United States are much overbought. In similar cases in the past, the markets dropped, but not in all cases. As I wrote about a couple of weeks ago, I think that the market will go up in the medium and long term, but I was expecting a short term correction. On the next days, if the markets rise, maybe I will buy with emergency stop, but I am not yet sure what I'll do.

Also this week, I didn't buy stocks or ETFs. I'm going to wait a little longer.

I will close all open positions. In my view, the probability of there being a short term correction increased.

RTK paid a dividend of 0,19 dollars per share in 12/18/2012. SIRI paid a dividend of 0,05 dollars per share in 12/14/2012 1626*0,19=308,94 1544*0,05=77,22 308,94+77,22= 386,16 I added this amount to the US Stock Portfolio. 386,16+286,04=672,22

SPY paid a dividend of 1,022 dollars per etf in 12/21/2012. 28*1,022= 28,616 I added this amount to the S&P 500 ETF Portfolio 107,74+28,616=136,356 SSO paid a dividend of 0,112 dollars per etf in 12/26/2012 65*0,112=7,28 I added this amount to the S&P 500 ETF Double-Leveraged Portfolio 213,15+7,28 = 220,43 UPRO paid a dividend of 0,017 dollars per etf in 12/26/2012 44*0,017= 0,748 I added this amount to the S&P 500 ETF Triple-Leveraged Portfolio 324,04+0,748= 324,788 QQQ paid a dividend of 0,367 dollars per etf in 12/21/2012 58*0,367=21,286 I added this amount to the NASDAQ 100 ETF Portfolio 49,93+21,286= 71,216 QLD paid a dividend of 0,082 dollars per etf in 12/26/2012 65*0,082= 5,33 I added this amount to the NASDAQ 100 ETF Double-Leveraged Portfolio 86,48+5,33 =91,81

Below there are the portfolios update.

Thanks. As regards the issue of technology and market environment changes, this is a difficult question, I stil think that the long term movements will continue similar to the past.

About the risk: The risk varies according to the leverage of the ETF used. SPY is not leveraged. SPY is designed to have the same gain or loss as the S&P 500. SSO is 2x leveraged. SSO is designed to have twice the gain or loss as the S&P 500 index. UPRO is 3x leveraged. UPRO is designed to have thrice the gain or loss as the S&P 500 index

After a long term analysis made, I will adopt a passive strategy of buy and hold. For this strategy, I will now use 10 000 dollars and, maybe in one or two years' time, I will use more 10 000 dollars. I'll do this for each of the following risk profiles /ETFs: Higher Risk / UPRO Medium-higher Risk /SSO Medium Risk / SPY

New Position US Stock Portfolio: I will buy : Leap Frog Enterprises Inc. (LF) Leap Frog Enterprises Inc. (LF) broke above the 50-day moving average resistance. I think it likely that price will continue to rise. Leap Frog Enterprises Inc's net cash provided by operating activities increased from 2011 to 2012.