Duarte

Annotated charts:

4 New Buys and 1 New stop loss order

The following is the portfolio:

Annotated charts:

4 New Buys

The following daily chart gives a short-term perspective for the S&P 500. The rally that began off the November low has been persistent. In the context of a Bull Market, the 50 day moving average often serves as a support and that is what happened last Friday. If the index falls below the 50 day moving average, this will be interpreted as a negative signal.

The following is the market timer portfolio chart. The chart is updated on a weekly basis.

The following is the market timer portfolio.

Below are the charts along with brief commentary. The following two monthly charts give a long-term perspective for the S&P 500. I am going to look again closely for the period between 1967 and 1984, as well as, for the period between 2000 and 2013. In December 1980, the S&P 500 closed above to its resistance line and then fell for 20 months. For that reason, even if the index closes above to its resistance line, the fall will remain possible. On the other hand, if the index rises above 1625 (above 3,17% of its resistance line), it is more likely to go up rather than down. At this time, the two paths remain open but the very bearish sentiment supports the continuation of the rise. Let's see what happens. This month and next month will be very important to trace the path for long term.

The following are the long-term market timer portfolios.

The following is the current portfolio:

See annotated chart:

I will buy shares of Kilroy Realty: (NYSE: KRC).

The U.S market remains very strong. Looking at the monthly chart of the S&P 500 Index we note that the S&P 500 is already above the key level of 1575. As I have written before, if it continues above of 1575 in the next two months, that would be very positive in the long term. However, this period is still one and a half months away. This week the CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment Index * was displaying very bullish sentiment with 77%bulls. In rather stark contrast the AAII Investor Sentiment (American Association of Individual Investors) ** reflects very bearish sentiment, with 19,30% bulls and 54% bears, which is surprising since historically, when the market trend is up and new highs are being made, the number of bulls tends to increase rather than decrease. These AAII Investor Sentiment numbers are typically seen at market bottoms, not during price advances. The traditional interpretation of sentiment readings is contrarian, meaning that AAII Investor Sentiment is giving a bullish signal, and also suggests that Investors are trying to guess a top. We can also consider that investor confidence is lower than it ought to be in the context of a rally, but this is not the traditional interpretation of sentiment readings. In conclusion, the number of bears suggests that the market will continue to rise but my technical indicators for U.S. market still show mixed signals, so I will not put much money in the stock market. I, however, will follow the market developments next week closely and maybe I will buy one or two shares or ETFs. (* Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the Consensus Inc. (Consensus - National Futures and Financial Investment Newspaper). The CONSENSUS Bullish Sentiment of Market Opinion shows the positions and attitudes of professional brokers and advisors. Polling is conducted on Consensus web site with a Thursday cutoff and Friday release. The survey is available on Saturday for free on the Barrons web site at Barron's Market Lab Table - Barrons.com). (** Sentiment data is provided courtesy of the American Association of Individual Investors (AAII: The American Association of Individual Investors). Polling is conducted on the AAII web site with a Wednesday cutoff and Thursday release).

See here the buy and hold portfolios update:

Here you can see the portfolio update: I now wait for the next buy signal of my technical indicators.

Listed below is one closed trade:

The two paths described remain open as long as the S&P 500 remains below to 1625. If, over the next two months, the S&P 500 remains below to 1575, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 1, but if the S&P500 rises above 1625, I think that the S&P 500 will follow the path 2. I will continue to evaluate on a monthly basis to determine the need to change the initial plan.

I realized that I get stopped out to many times. The reason this happened it was because I traded a lot. I will trade less, if I trade less, I get stopped out less, and my broker will get less commission from me. At this moment, my technical indicators are mixed, so I'll not risk a lot.

Here is a current portfolio update:

I discovered that there was a rounding problem in EXCEL sheet. To calculate the Return I used the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Money), but to avoid the rounding problem I'm going to use the following formula: (Quantity*Close Price)-(Quantity*Buy Price). The rounding problem has very little effect on portfolio but I have also decided to fix the previous trades.

Here is the current portfolio: Click here for complete image: http://i.imgur.com/1aVA6mc.png A happy Easter to everyone!

VIEWPOINT of Ken Fisher

Things did not go well this week. I will adjust my strategy. I try to choose a certain strategy or another depending on how market moves, and the result obtained. The market is still too overbought. At some point in the future the market will come down. However, the question remains as to when. At this moment, I have technical indicators to point in one direction, and others to point in another direction, which means I need to be cautious.

Here is a portfolio update: