Duarte

The US Stock Portfolio has no open positions at this moment. The five trades have reached the emergency stop.

Emergency stop alert: I´ll update the emergency stop ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF with emergency stop at 65,74 S&P 500 SPDRs (SPY) ETF with emergency stop at 144,10 ProSharesUltra S&P 500 Fund (SSO) ETF with emergency stop at 61,47 ProSharesUltraPro S&P 500 (UPRO) ETF with emergency stop at 90,81 ProShares QQQ Trust (QQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 68,76 ProSharesUltra QQQ Fund (QLD) ETF with emergency stop at 61,11 ProSharesUltraPro QQQ (TQQQ) ETF with emergency stop at 61,21 Rentech, Inc. (RTK) with emergency stop at 2,55 Wilshire State Bank (WIBC) with emergency stop at 6,38 8X8 INC (EGHT) with emergency stop at 6,69 ING GROEP NV (ING) with emergency stop at 8,32 Sirius XM Radio Inc (SIRI) with emergency stop at 2,46

The ACWI reached the previous low. It is still too early to know if this is simply a few days of selling or the beginning of a deeper correction but I'll put the emergency stop closer to the current price in all ETFs and stocks. ISHARES DAX (DE) (EXS1) ETF with emergency stop at 65,74

Why I decided to have multiple portfolios and not one or two? (this response also explains the other portfolios). Basically, it's because I prefer not to mix different leveraged ETFs. If I chose, I´d buy only 2x or 3x leveraged ETFs, but I decided to have different types of leverage separately because my risk profile is not equal to all investors. I understand that can be a little confusing, many portfolios, but despite giving me more work, I think it is more complete and then later, it will be possible to do readings that I find interesting. I can compare the difference of return between the various types of leverage, and also between ETFs and stocks, these are also some of my goals.

I expect that overall market continues to go up, as long as the ACWI (MSCI All Country World Index Fund) continues to close above the previous low 47,20 and key support. If close daily below 47, 20, I consider the possibility of exit.

Examples of websites where you can search stocks/ETFs quotes : - Banks / brokers, - MarketWatch - Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News Place the symbol in the upper right corner.

UPDATE

This means, that all trades can be done in real account. As all entries will be the opening price, it is possible to buy at a lower price, on many occasions, than I can get in the portfolios. The emergency stop, I'll inform before too. All entries and exists, I'll inform before they happen in the portfolios.

Rule: All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this "thread " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens.

As I have described, I observe the market direction in the indexes/ETFs, determine my market posture and I act in concert with the market direction.

Portfolio 1: Gold ETF Portfolio (1x) (100% of the benchmark's daily performance) ... uses SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) or PowerShares DB Gold Short ETN (DGZ) Portfolio 2: Gold ETF Double Leveraged Portfolio (2x) (200% of the benchmark's daily performance) ... uses PowerShares DB Gold Double Long ETN (DGP) or PowerShares DB Gold Double Short ETN (DZZ) Portfolio 3: Gold ETF Triple Leveraged Portfolio (3x) (300% of the benchmark's daily performance) ... uses Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bull 3X Shrs (NUGT) or Direxion Daily Gold Miners Bear 3X Shrs (DUST) Portfolio 4: Silver ETF Portfolio (1x) (100% of the benchmark's daily performance) ... uses iShares Silver Trust (SLV) to go long or short* *I prefer Inverse ETFs but so far, I haven´t found any silver inverse ETF (1x) Portfolio 5: Silver ETF Double Leveraged Portfolio (2x) (200% of the benchmark's daily performance) ... uses ProShares Ultra Silver (AGQ) or ProShares UltraShort Silver (ZSL) Portfolio 6: Silver ETF Triple Leveraged Portfolio (3x) (300% of the benchmark's daily performance) ... uses VelocityShares 3x Long Silver ETN (USLV) or VelocityShares 3x Inverse Silver ETN (DSLV) Portfolio 7: Gold Silver Stock Portfolio ... is composed by 5 Gold Silver Stocks

I consider 5 USD per buy and sell order. Broker example http://www.interactivebrokers.com The monetary value of each position is 4000 USD. I may have open positions in some of the assets referenced here in my real account.

Emergency stop The emergency stop that I use is activated if the price moves downwards too far. Because of the high volatility of the stocks and 300% leveraged ETFs, the stop is placed farther away from the current price, implies that the portfolios that use these assets have higher risk. When my uncertainty is higher or plan to sell, the stop is closer to the current price.

I´m going to have 7 independent portfolios, of which the first 6 are long/short trend-following with ETFs of different leverage, and the 7 is a long trend-following with Gold and Silver stocks. I have separate emergency stop for each ETF/stock, which is influenced by portfolio volatility/leverage and my perception of trend strength and risk. The ETFs of different leverage allow investors to position themselves, according to their risk profile and return. Two additional tips to review before investing in a leveraged ETF 1. Decide first on the amount of leverage that is appropriate from 1x to 3x. 2. Before placing a trade, confirm the ticker. As this products have similar ticker between long and short version, double checking will prevent errors.

Before I talk about my portfolios, I will talk about my goals. My first goal is to try to respond as best as possible to what the market is doing and act appropriately. I am talking about trend-following discipline. I determine my market posture through a careful analysis of the charts. I observe the market direction - up, down or sideways – with the Gold & Silver index – Philadelphia (XAU), Gold index, Silver index or other leader index where the stock acts. Acting in concert with the market direction, I increase my odds of success. I pick stocks to buy based on a careful analysis of the historical charts. I also consider other factors, such as net cash from operating activities, volume and beta. When I expect the market will go up, my market posture is bullish. That means, I’m buying stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). My market posture remains bullish until my "stop" is reached. When i expect the market will go down, my market posture is bearish. That means, I’m buying inverse Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). My market posture remains bearish until my "stop" is reached. When I don't expect anything, my market posture is neutral. That means, I’m not buying. My second goal is to explain in simple terms the reasons for my decisions.

I think it's time to buy again SIRI, responded well to the MA (50). I´ll sell DCT and buy SIRI with emergency stop at 2,32.

As I have described, I observe the market direction in the indexes *, determine my market posture and I act in concert with the market direction. I think this is already assimilated by those who followed the portfolios until this point. * Observe market direction in index or in ETF is the same thing, because the purpose of the ETF is to replicate the index. On 09/04/2012 I observed the market direction through the ACWI (MSCI All Country World Index ETF) and later returned to do the same. I not talked about ACWI, but from the description it is clear that is an ETF world. When I analyze the global market, I use often this ETF.The ACWI is constituted by a large number of United States stocks (46.28%), UK stocks (8.25%), Germany stocks (3.14%) and stocks of various other countries. Read about the ACWI: http://us.ishares.com/product_info/fund/overview/ACWI.htm When my market posture is bullish in ACWI that means, almost always, bullish also in the United States and Germany. Now that I clarified better this part. I thought it might be interesting to create a portfolio for my market posture and I did it. The market posture is the key piece of gear that makes portfolios to move.

Two additional tips to review before investing in a leveraged ETF 1. Decide first on the amount of leverage that is appropriate from 1x to 3x. 2. Before placing a trade, confirm the ticker. As this products have similar ticker between long and short version, double checking will prevent errors.

I saw that the "U.S. Stock Portfolio" has an emergency stop wrong. Not updated the emergency stop of DCT, and still appears the emergency stop of NCT (7.58), it was already closed. As nobody noticed, I see that nobody is paying enough attention.

The overall market continues pointing in an upward direction. The ACWI (iShares MSCI ACWI index Fund) will continue to rise as long as it remains to build higher highs and higher lows.

I'll clarify what I have done so far. I wrote in the first posts what I do. I wrote this: "I determine my market posture through a careful analysis of the charts. I observe the market direction - up, down or sideways – with the S&P 500 index, Nasdaq 100 index, Dow Jones index, MSCI ACWI index, Dax index or other leader index where the stock acts. Acting in concert with the market direction, i increase my odds of success." What I did first? I have carefully looked at the ACWI (iShares MSCI ACWI index Fund) "The overall market direction is up since the beginning of June. The overall market fall a few days but now went back up and breakout has happened. The breakout suggests that the market direction continues upward. I'm still afraid to be buying in the worst month for the markets, but I also don´t want that the market run away without me. My market posture is bullish." I wrote this: "When I expect the market will go up, my market posture is bullish. That means, I’m buying stocks and Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs). My market posture remains bullish until my "stop" is reached." That's what I did. I bought stocks and ETFs.

Rule: All entries and emergency stops must be sent to this " thread " , with a minimum of 5 minutes before the next market opening and automatically placed on the market after the market opens. UPDATE

To use or not to use Leveraged ETFs? There are some people suggest that we should not use leveraged ETFs, arguing that “volatility destroys Leveraged ETFs” or “Leveraged ETFs lose from compounding”, but I think that we must not do as some suggest because Leveraged ETFs are not as dangerous as they say. Let's take an example, suppose we bought SSO (2x Leveraged S&P 500 ETF) and UPRO (3x Leveraged S&P500 ETF) at 7/1/12 and held it through today (9/15/12). The underlying S&P 500 Index gained 42, 67% over that period, SPY (S&P 500 ETF) gained 49, 56% (more than 42,67%), SSO gained 99,91% (more than 2x 42,67%= 85,34%) and UPRO gained 152,85% (more than 3x 42,67% = 128,01%). So, we conclude that, SSO and UPRO reached more than their purposes. It's not always that way. In periods of extreme volatility, Leveraged ETFs loses value, but also gains more value in other periods. The leveraged ETFs aren't perfect but I think with reasonable market timing, leveraged ETFs are a good way to increase our returns.

I don´t have 2x Leveraged DAX ETFs in the topic, despite that, I prefer to use 2x leveraged ETFs (200% of the benchmark's daily performance).The buy/sell signs are the same that happens with 1x DAX ETF Portfolio.

Portfolios 1 to 7. Is updated with the actual value.