FXTechstrategy Team

CRUDE OIL: With Crude Oil extending its corrective weakness, there is risk of further declines towards the 90.00 level. A respite may occur here but if taken out, expect further declines to develop towards the 88.00 level. Further down, support lies at the 86.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, Crude Oil will have to break and hold above the 100.39 level to resume its medium term uptrend. Above here will target the 102.00 level with a cut through here calling for a run at the 104.00 level followed by the 106.00 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its corrective weakness bias.

GBPUSD: Consolidating With Upside Bias. GBPUSD: The pair may be hesitating following its recent strength but continues to hold on to its broader upside. This development now leaves GBP targeting the 1.6272 level where a breach will pave the way for a move higher towards the 1.6300 level. Further out, resistance stands at the 1.6350 level with a cut through here allowing for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the downside, support comes in at 1.6162 level where a violation will trigger further declines towards the 1.6100 level. A break and hold below here will aim at the 1.6050 level. We expect a halt in declines to occur here and turn GBP higher again. On the whole, GBP faces further upside risk medium term.

EURUSD: With EUR backing off higher level prices to close lower the past week, it remains susceptible. But as long as its present bear threats remain above the 1.2748 level, its broader short term uptrend remains intact. This could eventually see the pair return above the 1.3171 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1.3282 level. Above here will call for a move towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Conversely, support lies at the 1.2800 level. A breather may occur and turn the pair back up but if this fails to occur, expect the pair to decline further towards the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. Further down, support lies at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR continues to hold on to its short term upside bias though facing bear threats.

USDCAD: Shooting Star Candle Surfaces. USDCAD: The pair may have closed higher on Thursday but left a lot to be desired after it printed a shooting star candle pattern. This candle pattern is both negative and upside reversal signal suggesting the pair may have ended its correction. This will leave USDCAD targeting the 0.9692 level where a violation will call for more declines towards the 0.9631/00 levels. A break will aim at the 0.9500 level and possibly the 0.9450 level. Alternatively, the pair will have to return above 0.9815 level to resume its correction. Further resistance lies at the 0.9945 level. This if seen could propel it further towards the 1.0000/83 levels. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term though facing recovery risks.

USDJPY: Though facing corrective recovery threats triggered from the 77.13 level, it continues to hold on to its medium term downtrend. As long as it continues to hold below its falling trendline (red), this view remains valid. This leaves the risk of a return to the 77.13/00 levels on the cards. Below here will call for more declines towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair must break and hold above the 79.64 level and its declining trendline to put on hold its medium term downtrend. This could push the pair further lower towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside medium term despite its current recovery attempts.

AUDUSD: Weak And Vulnerable To The Downside AUDUSD: Having failed to break and hold above the 1.0611 level and tumbled lower, price extension cannot be ruled out. This suggests that AUDUSD could face further bear threats towards the 1.0419/1.0399 levels. Below here if seen could force further declines towards the 1.0320 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.0200 level followed by the 1.0165 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. In order for the pair to annul its present bear threats, it will have to break and hold above the 1.0611/23 level. This will push it further higher towards the 1.0700 level and possibly the 1.0853 level. All in all, the pair continues to face its corrective downside risk.

EURUSD: Bullish, Eyes Further Upside. EURUSD: With another fresh rally seeing EUR closing higher the past week, the risk is for the pair to strengthen further. This development now leaves the pair targeting the 1.3282 level where a violation will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. Conversely, support lies at the 1.3000 level, followed by the 1.2950 level. A breather may occur and turn the pair back up but if this fails to occur, expect the pair to decline further towards the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. Further down, support lies at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR continues to face upside threats.

USDCHF: The pair continues to weaken turning lower below the 0.9421 level, its July 2012 low to close the week at 0.9271 level. This leaves the pair aiming at the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low on further declines where a violation could force more declines towards the 0.9100 level. A breach of here will aim at its major psycho level at the 0.9000 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to initially return above the 0.9421 level and then the 0.9655 level. This if seen should open up further upside towards the 0.9808 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9970 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.

EURUSD: We look for EUR to extend its gains though slightly hesitating. As long as it continues to trade and hold above the 1.2692/1.2748 levels, further upside gain is likely. It now faces the risk of moving higher towards the 1.2950 level. A breather may occur and turn the pair back lower at this level but if this fails to occur, expect the pair to strengthen further towards the 1.3000 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. Further down, support lies at the 1.2442 level where a violation will expose the 1.2239 level. A clearance of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 1.2132/17 levels. All in all, EUR continues to face upside recovery threats.

CRUDE OIL: Having halted its corrective declines and turned higher, the risk is for Crude Oil to recapture the 98.26 level. As long as Crude Oil continues to hold above the 93.93/92.04 levels, there is risk of a recapture of the 98.26 level. A cut through here will call for a run at the 100.00 level followed by the 101.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for Crude Oil to break below the mentioned trendline and then target the 92.04 level. Below here will aim at the 86.82 level. This is consistent with its broader downside bias though it will have to take out the 84.05 level and the 77.70 level to resume that trend. Below here will resume its medium term weakness towards the 75.50 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to hold on to its medium term bias.

GBPUSD: With bullish offensive seen above the 1.6000/50 levels, the risk is for GBP to recapture the1.6112 level. Price hesitation may occur here and then turn the pair back lower but if it breaks, expect further upside to shape up towards the 1.6180 level, its May 10’2012 high. Further out, resistance resides at 1.6300 level, its April’2012 high. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the other hand, support comes in at the 1.6000/1.5909 levels. A reversal of roles as support is likely to occur here and turn the pair higher. However, if this fails, the 1.5774/78 level will be aimed at. Below here if seen could see the pair return to the 1.5457 level and then the 1.5391 level. On the whole, GBP faces an immediate upside risk into the new week.

EURUSD: With EUR holding above its broken resistance zone at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels, further upside gain is likely. It now faces the risk of moving higher towards the 1.2839 level where its daily 200 ema is located. A breather may occur and turn the pair back lower at this level but if this fails to occur, expect the pair to strengthen further towards the 1.2900 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to return to the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. Further down, support lies at the 1.2442 level where a violation will expose the 1.2239 level. A clearance of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 1.2132/17 levels. All in all, EUR continues to face upside recovery threats.

GBPJPY – While GBPJPY may be hesitating or even vulnerable, it remains baised to upside short term. However, it will have to return above the 125.81 level, representing its Jun 21’2012 high and the 126.16 level to trigger its short term uptrend. As long as it holds above its rising trendline (red), this view remains intact. A decisive breach of here will call for more upside towards the 127.08 level with a loss of here creating scope for further upside risk towards the 128.84 level. Further out, resistance resides at 129.50 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be a pullback towards the 124.01 level where a reversal of roles as support is expected. However, if this fails, further declines could build up towards the 122.38 level where a violation will set the stage for a move further lower towards the 121.77 level. But for the cross to resume its broader medium term weakness, it will have to break below the 118.78 level. On the whole, the cross remains biased to the upside on correction nearer term.

GOLD: With GOLD rallying through its big psycho level at 1,700.00 level to close the week higher the past week, it now looks to extend that strength in the new week. This will leave the commodity targeting the 1,750 level and possibly higher targeting the 1.800 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. The alternative scenario will be for the commodity to return to the 1,676 level and the 1,700.00 level. We expect this levels to provide a strong support and turn it higher. Further down, support lies at the 1,640.45 level where a violation will aim at the 1,600.00 level. However, if this fails, further declines will shape up towards the 1,584 level and then the 1,544.35. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its bullish tone.

USDCHF: The pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure initiated from the 0.9970 level declining sharply for the past week and setting the stage for additional weakness. This development now leaves the pair targeting the 0.9421 level, its July 2012 low. A violation of here could force more declines towards the 0.9366 level where a breach will aim at the 0.9300 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to initially return above the 0.9655 level. This if seen should open up further upside towards the 0.9808 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9970 level where a break will resume its broader medium term uptrend now on hold. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.

USDCAD: As continued downside weakness remains in force, USDCAD looks to recapture its key support located at the 0.9841 level, its Aug’2012 low. A decisive clearance of here will resume its medium term weakness towards the 0.9800 level. A violation of there will allow for a move lower towards the 0.9700 level, its psycho level and possibly towards the 0.9600 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the only way to prevent this bear threat is for the pair to decisively break and hold above the 0.9945 level. This if seen could propel it further towards the 1.0000/83 levels. A breach will aim at the 1.0105 level and then the 1.0165 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

EURJPY: Maintains Recovery Threats With Upside Bias EURJPY- Though consolidating following its recent upside offensive, EURJPY remains biased to the upside on furthercorrection. As long as the cross continues to hold above the 97.80 level, it looks to resume its upside recovery towards the 99.16 level. A breach will allow for more strength towards the 100.00 level, its psycho level. However, it will have to take out its 101.59 level to signal that a bottom is now in place. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for EURJPY to return to the 97.80 level where a break will call for a run at the 95.72 level followed by the 94.91 level. A cut through there will allow for more declines towards the 93.00 level. All in all, EURJPY remains biased to the upside on further correction.

USDCHF – Weakens, Extends Bearish Momentum. USDCHF: With USDCHF holding below the 0.9655 level, Aug 06’2012 low and closing lower the past week, risk of further decline is developing. The pair continues to hold on to its downside pressure initiated from the 0.9970 level leaving the risk of further downside pressure towards the 0.9480 level. A violation of here could force more declines towards the 0.9421 level where a breach will aim at the 0.9366 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. The alternative scenario will be for the pair to initially return above the 0.9655 level which should open up further upside towards the 0.9808 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 0.9970 level where a break will resume its broader medium term uptrend towards the 1.0000 level, its 200 weekly ema. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside on correction.

AUDUSD: Further bearishness is still envisaged as AUDUSD extended its declines on Thursday. The pair is now seen testing the 1.0289 level, its daily 200 ema where a breach will push it further lower towards its July 25’2012 low at 1.0177 and then the 1.0100 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. Conversely, the pair will have to return above the 1.0409 level and the 1.0611 level to annul its present bearishness. This if it occurs could open up further upside risk towards the 1.0650 level. Further out, resistance resides at the 1.0700 level. All in all, the pair continues to face its corrective downside tone.

USDJPY: Broader Bias Points Lower. USDJPY: The risk continues to point to the downside as USDJPY holds on its medium term downside bias. This leaves USDJPY targeting the 77.88/66 levels. A violation of here will aim at the 77.00 level, its psycho level. Below here will call for more declines towards the 77.35 level and then the 76.49 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. On the upside, the pair must break and hold above the 79.64 level to annul its present bearishness. This could push the pair further towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside with risk towards its key support.

USDCAD: With USDCAD continuing its weakness and testing the 0.9841 level to close lower on Tuesday, the threat is for an eventual break and hold below the 0.9841 level, its Aug’2012 low. If this occurs, the pair will resume its medium term weakness towards the 0.9800 level. A violation of there will allow for a move lower towards the 0.9700 level, its psycho level and possibly towards the 0.9600 level. Conversely, the only way to prevent these bear threat is for it to decisively break and hold above the 0.9945 level. This if seen could propel it further towards the 1.0000/83 levels. A breach will aim at the 1.0105 level and then the 1.0165 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.