FXTechstrategy Team

USDCHF: With the pair continuing to look vulnerable despite its recovery attempt the past week, a return to the 0.9213 level is still a likely scenario. A decisive break of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. On the upside, the pair will have to follow through on its past week marginal gains to return to the 0.9424 level in order to reduce bear threats. Above here will resume its short term uptrend now on hold towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482 followed by the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

USDJPY: The pair has triggered its bullish offensive and presently threatens further upside. As long as the pair holds above the 79.64/21 levels, its broader upside bias remains intact. With that said, further strength is now likely towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, a failure to hold on to its present upside offensive could mean a return to the 79.64/21 levels. Further down, support lies at the 77.13/00 levels. If however this fails, expect USDJPY to weaken further towards the 76.49 level. All in all, USDJPY faces further bull pressure.

GBPUSD: With the pair breaking and holding below the 1.5976 level, the risk of further weakness cannot be ruled out. Though seen taking back some of those losses in early trading today, it continues to remain vulnerable. Support lies at the 1.5911 level with a cut through there opening the door for a move lower towards the 1.5774/78 level. A break of here will turn attention to the 1.5457 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, GBP must return above the 1.6177 level to reverse its present weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.6215 level. This could push the pair further higher towards the 1.6350 level. A breach will allow for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the whole, GBP has halted its upside offensive and turned lower with eyes on further downside.

EURUSD: Although EUR turned lower off the 1.3138 level, it still faces its broader upside risk. While it maintains above the 1.2890/22 levels, we think the pair will maintain its upside bias. This suggests it could eventually recapture the 1.3171 level with a breach of here resuming its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level. A cut through here will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Conversely, the pair will have to break and hold below the 1.2890/22 levels to prevent an eventual return to the 1.3171 level. This 1.2890/22 zone is key as a break and hold below here could put its broader upside bias on hold and bring deeper weakness towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. If broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. All in all, EUR faces further upside threats medium term.

USDJPY: With a follow through higher currently seen and a break above the 79.64 level occurring, further bullish offensive is expected. This development will leave USDJPY targeting its psycho level at 80.00 level where a breach will turn focus to the 81.77 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 79.64 level initially where we may see a reversal of roles. However, if this level breaks, expect the pair to decline further towards the 78.63 level. Further down, support resides at the 77.13/00 levels with a cut through here targeting further declines towards the 76.49 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the upside short term

EURUSD: While EUR may have closed marginally higher after reversing most of its earlier gains for the week, it continues to hold on to its short term uptrend bias. This leaves EUR targeting the 1.3171 level, its Sept 17’2012 high with a turn above here calling for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its weekly RSI points higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.2824 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair turn higher. However, if this fails to happen further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR looks to recapture the 1.3171 level and trigger further upside

GBPUSD: Bearish, On The Defensive. GBPUSD: With GBP weak and vulnerable into the new week, it faces further bear threats towards its Oct 09’2012 low at 1.5976. On a decisive break and hold below here, the stage will be set for more declines towards the 1.5774/78 level with breach turning attention to the 1.5457 level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, GBP will have to return above the 1.6177 level to reverse its present weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.6215 level. This could push the pair further higher towards the 1.6350 level. A breach will allow for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the whole, GBP continues to face downside pressure as it looks to weaken further.

GBPUSD: Faces Bear Threats On Price Failure. GBPUSD: The pair saw a sharp sell off on Thursday, reversing most of its recovery gains and turning risk lower. This leaves the 1.5976 level as the next downside objective. Further down, support lies at the 1.5774/78 level with break of there turning attention to the 1.5457 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, GBP must return above the 1.6177 level to reverse its present weakness. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.6215 level. This could push the pair further higher towards the 1.6350 level. A breach will allow for more gains towards the 1.6400 level. On the whole, GBP has halted its upside offensive and turned lower with eyes on the 1.5976 level. http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WaLwxI1MRDQ/UIEeZ4kr6cI/AAAAAAAAGA4/q1QsDByE7eY/s1600/gbpusd200001bb.gif

USDJPY: The pair is now seen back above its falling trendline and targeting the 79.64 level. USDJPY will have to hold above here on a daily closing basis to convince the market of further upside gains. This if seen could push the pair further higher towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. Alternatively, a failure to hold on to its present upside offensive could mean a return to the 77.13/00 levels. If however, this fails, expect USDJPY to weaken further towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. All in all, USDJPY faces further bull pressure.

EURUSD: The pair broke and held above the 1.3073 level on Tuesday, opening the door for more upside offensive. This has set the stage for a run at the 1.3171 levels with a breach of here resuming its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level. A cut through here will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher. Conversely, to annul its present bull offensive, a break and hold below the 1.2824 level must occur. This level is key as a break and hold below here could push EUR deeper towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. If broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. All in all, EUR faces further upside threats.

EURUSD: Although the pair is trying to bottom out, it will have to break and hold above the 1.3073 level to confirm its double bottom pattern now in place. This will open the door for a run at the 1.3171 levels. Above here will resume its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level where a violation will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Conversely, except this scenario plays out, the risk of a return to the 1.2824 level cannot be ruled out. This level is key as a break and hold below here could push EUR deeper towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. If broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. All in all, EUR faces further upside threats.

EURJPY- Our bias on EURJPY remains higher as long as it trades and holds above the 99.63 level. This development leaves the cross targeting the 103.85 level where a violation will pave the way for a run at the 104.42 level and possibly higher towards the 105.00 level. On the downside, support lies at the 100.70 level where a violation will open the door for a move lower towards the 99.63/86 levels. The pair may see a respite here and turn higher. But if this fails, support lies at the 97.80 level where a break will call for a push lower towards the 95.72 level. All in all, the pair remains biased to the upside

EURUSD: Although the pair closed marginally lower at the end of the week, it continues to hold on to its broader short term uptrend. This leaves EUR targeting the 1.3171 level, its Sept 17’2012 high with a turn above here calling for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its weekly RSI points higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.2824 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair back off lower prices and target the upside. However, if this fails to happen further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR looks to recapture the 1.3171 level and beyond.

USDCHF: With an attempt on the upside failing and USDCHF closing marginally higher the past week, the risk of returning to the 0.9238 level continues to build up. If this occurs in the new week, further declines could shape up towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair will have to return above the 0. 9424 level to annul its current weakness and then resume its bullish offensive towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482. A cut through here will open up further upside gain towards the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.

USDJPY: With USDJPY continuing to be weak and vulnerable, further declines cannot be ruled out. As long as it holds below its falling trendline (red), this view remains valid. This leaves the risk of an eventual return return to the 77.13/00 levels on the cards. Below here will call for more declines towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the pair must break and hold above the 79.64 level and its declining trendline to put on hold its medium term downtrend. This could push the pair further lower towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside medium term despite its current recovery attempts.

EURUSD: While the pair may be biased to the upside short term, it continues to face downside threats on corrective pullback. It is now targeting the 1.2824 level. This level is key as a break of here could push EUR deeper towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. If broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. Its daily RSI is supportive of this view. Alternatively, the pair will have to return above the 1.3047 and the 1.3171 levels to resume its short term uptrend. If this occurs, the 1.3282 level will be targeted where a violation will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. All in all, EUR faces further downside threats on correction.

USDJPY: As referenced in our previous analysis of the possibility of the pair failing at or ahead of its trendline resistance (red), we are currently seeing that happening. This development has turned the risk lower with the possibility of recapturing its key support at the 77.13/00 levels. A cut through here will target further declines towards the 76.49 level and then the 76.00 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. On the upside, the pair must break and hold above the 79.64 level to halt its broader bearishness. This if seen could push the pair further lower towards the 80.59 level where a breach will turn attention to the 81.77 level. All in all, USDJPY remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

EURUSD: With the pair reversing most of its two-week losses the past week, further upside pressure is now building up. This leaves EUR targeting the 1.3171 level, its Sept 17’2012 high with a turn above here calling for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its weekly RSI points higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.2824 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair back off lower prices and target the upside. However, if this fails to happen further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR looks to build on its past week gains.

USDCHF: With USDCHF reversing almost all of its corrective recovery gains the past week, the big risk is for it to return to the 0.9238 level. If this occurs in the new week, further declines will shape up towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low with breach targeting the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. Its weekly RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, it will have to return above the 0. 9424 level to annul its current weakness and resume its bullish offensive towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482. A breach will open up further upside gain towards the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.

EURUSD: The pair rallied sharply to close higher on Thursday. However, we will have to see EUR return above the 1.3047 and the 1.3171 levels to prevent a return to the 1.2824 level. If above the 1.3171 level is traded, the 1.3282 level will be targeted where a violation will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, support lies at the 1.2824 level where a violation will call for a move further towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. All in all, EUR continues to maintain its short term upside bias.

EURJPY: Builds On Recovery Gains EURJPY- While the cross continues to build on its bullish tone, it will have to break and hold above the 103.85 level to end its bear threats. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 104.42 level. And possibly the 105.00 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at the 100.70 level where a violation will open the door for a move lower towards the 99.51/63 levels. EURJPY may see a respite here and turn higher. Further down, support lies at the 97.80 level where a break will call for a push lower towards the 95.72 level. All in all, though maintaining its broader medium term upside, it will have to break above the 103.85 to trigger that trend.

EURUSD: The pair still retains its corrective pullback risks as it remains vulnerable despite a two-day attempts on the upside. Support is seen at the 1.2824 level where a violation will call for a move further towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. Conversely, although EUR continues to hold on to its broader medium term upside, it will have to return above the 1.3171 level to resume its short term uptrend. This will open the door for a run at the 1.3282 level where a violation will call for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. All in all, EUR continues to maintain its corrective tone.

USDCHF: With USDCHF failing to follow through higher on the back of its last week gains, further weakness is expected in the days ahead. This is coming on the heels of a second day of weakness during Tuesday trading session. The risk is for the pair to recapture its key support located at the 92.38 level. A violation will aim at the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low followed by the 0.9100 level. On the upside, it will have to return above the 94.24 level to annul its current weakness and resume its bullish offensive towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482. A breach will open up further upside gain towards the 0.9606 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term.

EURUSD: Bears Extend Hold On The Downside. EURUSD: A second consecutive week of declines saw the EUR even more vulnerable to the downside with eyes on the 1.2753 level. A clearance of here will open the door for a run at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair back off lower prices and target the upside. However, if this fails to happen Further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. Its weekly RSI has turned lower supporting this view. On the other hand, the pair will have to return above the 1.3171 level to annul its present weakness and turn upside risk towards the 1.3282 level. Above here will call for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. All in all, EUR continues to face bear threats.

USDCHF: The pair managed to close higher for a second week in a row at the end of the week, suggesting we could see further correction. If this occurs, further upside risk could build up towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482 where a breach will open up further upside gain towards the 0.9606 level. Its weekly RSI has turned higher suggesting further strength. On the down, if its current recovery fails especially ahead of the 0.9421/82 levels, its short term downtrend could be triggered. Support lies at the 92.38 level where a violation will aim at the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low followed by the 0.9100 level. A breach of here will turn focus to its major psycho level at the 0.9000 level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the short term despite its recovery attempts.