FXTechstrategy Team

USDCHF: While outlook for USDCHF may be pointing higher on correction, price hesitation has set in turning the pair lower the past week. However, as long as it trades and holds above the 0.9497 and the 0.9275 levels, its corrective bias remains higher with eyes on the 0.9550 level. A breach of here will open the door for more upside offensive towards the 0.9606 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, support comes in at the 0.9497 level where a halt is likely to occur and turn USDCHF higher. However, if this fails to occur, a run at the 0.9275 level will follow where a decisive break will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the upside on correction though hesitating.

EURUSD: Although EUR extended its correction on Thursday, that gain is currently being reversed on a sell off. As long as it can hold below its support turned resistance at the 1.2822 level, our outlook remains lower short term. Support lies at the 1.2660/25 levels. A breach of here will call for a run at the 1.2560 level. Its daily RSI is supportive of this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.2755 level with a turn above here targeting the 1.2822 level. A reversal of roles could occur and turn the pair lower. However, if this fails, further upside should build up towards the 1.3000 followed by the 1.3171 level. A breach of here will resume its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level. All in all, EUR continues to face further downside threats in short term despite recovery attempts.

USDJPY: With a second day of upside offensive seeing the pair breaking and holding above the 80.65 level to resume its medium term uptrend, further strength is envisaged. The 81.00 level is now being targeted with a violation of here opening the door for a run at the 81.77 level and possibly higher towards the 82.00 level. Alternatively, a failure of the 79.21/09 levels to hold could trigger further declines towards the 78.00 level. Further down, support lies at the 77.13/00 levels. All in all, USDJPY still faces corrective threats.

CRUDE OIL: With a clear correction yet to be established, Crude Oil remains biased to the downside in the short term. This view remains valid as long as the commodity holds below its declining trendline resistance. Support lies at the 84.04 level where a breach could drive Crude Oil further lower towards the 83.50 level. We may see a halt in declines here if seen but if it breaks further downside will aim at the 82.08 level. On the upside, it will have to break and hold above the 91.25 level to trigger a meaningful correction. Further out, resistance resides at the 92.00 level andthe 93.63 level. All in all, Crude Oil continues to face downside risks despite recovery attempts.

AUDUSD: While AUDUSD trades within its established rising channel, our bias remains higher. This leaves the risk of a recapture of the 1.0478 level on the cards. A breach will create scope for a run at the 1.0520 level. The ultimate target lies at the 1.0611/23 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, if its present bullish tone fails, it could target the 1.0304 level with a violation of there targeting the 1.0234 level. A breach will push it lower towards the 1.0198 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.0150 level. All in all, the pair continues to face upside risks.

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EURUSD: Under Bear Pressure, Sees Further Downside Momentum EURUSD: With continued bearishness seen, EUR looks to extend further declines. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 1.2625 level. A breach of here will call for a run at the 1.2560 level. Its daily RSI is supportive of this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.2755 level with a turn above here targeting the 1.2822 level. A reversal of roles could occur and turn the pair lower. However, if this fails, further upside should build up towards the 1.3000 followed by the 1.3171 level. A breach of here will resume its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level. All in all, EUR continues to face further downside threats.

GBPUSD: With GBP following through lower on the back of its past week losses, there is risk of further declines developing towards the 1.5826 level. A violation will pave the way for a move towards the 1.5774/78 levels with a cut through here setting the stage for a run at the 1.5700 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower suggesting further declines. Alternatively, above the 1.6000 level and the 1.6215 level will have to be traded to annul its present downside vulnerability. Above here will open up further offensive towards the 1.6350 level followed by the 1.6400 level. On the whole, GBP continues to face downside pressure.

GOLD: The commodity halted its declines and triggered a corrective recovery the past week. This development leaves GOLD targeting the 1,750.00 where a violation will call for a move further higher towards the 1,795 level. A violation of here will resume its medium term uptrend towards the 1,800.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.850 level. Its weekly RSI has turned higher supporting its corrective tone. On the downside, support lies at 1,705.20 level where a violation will call for a run at the 1,640.45 level. A cut through here will allow for more declines towards the 1,600.00 level. A respite is likely to occur here but if that fails, expect Gold to weaken further towards the 1,580.00 level. All in all, GOLD is biased to the upside on correction

USDCHF: A third week of upside gains has put the pair firmly above the 0.9424 level, suggesting further bullish pressure is likely to occur. With that said, USDCHF looks to target the 0.9550 level as long as it holds above the 0.9424 level. A breach of the 0.9550 level will open the door for more upside offensive towards the 0.9606 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, support comes in at the 0.9424 level where a reversal of roles is likely to occur and turn USDCHF higher. However, if this fails to occur, a run at the 0.9275 level will follow where a decisive break will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term.

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EURGBP- With the cross vulnerable as it now holds below its broken support, further downside is likely. It requires a continued hold below there to create scope for a move lower possibly towards the 0.7890 level. A cap is likely to occur and turn it higher but if violated expect further downside to occur towards Its daily is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, the cross will to return above the 0.8029 level you its here could see the cross extend its upside towards present downside pressure and set the stage for a the 0.8163 level where a break will aim at the 0.8200 level. All in all, the cross remains biased to the downside on further bear threats.

GOLD: With the commodity bullish and extending its recovery initiated from the 1,672.23 level, there is risk of a run at the 1,743.50 level. A cut through here will open the door for more gains towards the 1,750.00 where a violation will call for a move further higher towards the 1,795 level. Price hesitation may occur here and turn the commodity back lower. However, if this fails to occur, we could see GOLD resuming its medium term uptrend towards the 1,800.00 level. Further out, resistance comes in at the 1.850 level. Its daily RSI is Bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, support lies at 1,705.20 level where a breach will call for a run at the 1,640.45 level. A cut through here will allow for more declines towards the 1,600.00 level where a respite is likely to occur. Further down, support comes in at the 1,580.00 level. All in all, GOLD continues to hold on to its corrective recovery tone as it looks to extend more upside.

AUDUSD: Strengthens, Looks For More Upside. AUDUSD: With the pair resuming its short term upside on Tuesday, further upside is likely to target the 1.0475 level with a breach creating scope for a run at the 1.0520 level. The ultimate target lies at the 1.0611/23 level. Its daily RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. On the downside, if its present bullish tone fails, it could target the 1.0304 level with a violation of there targeting the 1.0234 level. A breach will push it lower towards the 1.0198 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.0150 level. All in all, the pair continues to face upside risks.

EURUSD: The pair has broken and held below its key support at the 1.2822 level. You will recall we have been watching that level for a long time. We see two things happening. One, EUR will have to hold below this support to validate its break and second, a failure to hold below here could mean further upside offensive could follow. If the former plays out, expect further declines towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. But if broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. Its daily RSI is supportive of this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.2822 level where a reversal of roles could occur. However, if this fails, further upside should build up towards the 1.3000 followed by the 1.3171 level. A breach of here will resume its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level with a cut through here calling for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. All in all, EUR faces further downside threats.

USDCHF: With the pair extending its last week strength, the risk is for it to decisively break and hold above the 0.9424 level. It was testing that level at the time of this of this analysis. Above here will resume its short term uptrend towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482 followed by the 0.9606 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, as long as the pair remains below the 0.9424 level, there is risk of a return to the 0.9213 level. A decisive break of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term despite its corrective attempts.

GBPUSD: GBP continues to weaken following g through lower today on the back of its last week strong sell off. This development now leaves the pair aiming at its key support located at the 1.5911 level, its Oct 23’2012 low. A decisive break below here will push the pair further lower towards the 1.5850 level and subsequently the 1.5774/78 level where a respite may be seen. However, if this fails to happen expect GPB to weaken further towards the 1.5457 level. Alternatively, on any pullback, immediate resistance lies at 1.6005 level but in order for the pair to convince the market it has ended its short term weakness, it will have to return above the 1.6215 level. This if seen will open up further offensive towards the 1.6350 level. On the whole, GBP continues to face downside pressure with the risk of recapturing its key support at 1.5911 level.

EURUSD: With EUR weakening for a second week in a row, further declines is likely in the new week. However, it will have to break and hold below the 1.2824 level to convince the market of further declines. Further down, support lies at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair turn higher but if this fails to happen further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. Its daily RSI is bearish and pointing lower supporting this view. On the upside, resistance resides at the 1.3018 level where a break will aim at the 1.3171 level, its Sept 17’2012 high. A turn above here will call for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. All in all, EUR looks to recapture the 1.2824 level on further weakness.

USDCHF: With the pair closing marginally higher on the back of its previous week higher close, the risk is for a follow through to occur. However, USDCHF is trapped in a consolidation. In order for it to force further upside offensive, it will have to overcome the 0.9424 level. Above here will resume its short term uptrend now on hold towards its Sept 10'2012 high at 0.9482 followed by the 0.9606 level. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher supporting this view. Alternatively, as long as the pair remains below the 0.9424 level, there is risk of a return to the 0.9213 level. A decisive break of here will set the stage for a move lower towards the 0.9193 level, its May 07’2012 low where a breach will aim at the 0.9100 level and ultimately the 0.9000 level, its big psycho level. On the whole, the pair remains biased to the downside in the medium term despite its corrective attempts.

GBPUSD: Our upside target on further bullish offensive stands at the 1.6177 level. A break of here will reduce its broader bear threats. This if seen will pave the way for a run at the 1.6215 level. A push through here could see the pair target higher prices towards the 1.6350 level. Further out, resistance lies at the 1.6400 level. On the downside, support les at the 1.5976 level and the 1.5911 level. Further down, support comes in at the 1.5774/78 level with a break of here turning attention to the 1.5457 level. On the whole, GBP has halted its downside pressure but remains vulnerable.

EURUSD: Turns Higher, Eyes Key Resistance. EURUSD: Having continued to strengthen for a second day in a row, risk could be building up for a return to its key resistance at the 1.3171 level. This view remains valid unless a violation of the 1.2890/22 levels occurs. A breach of the 1.3171 level will resume its broader uptrend towards the 1.3282 level with a cut through here calling for a move further higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Conversely, the pair will have to break and hold below the 1.2890/22 levels to put its medium term uptrend bias on hold. This if it occurs should bring deeper weakness towards the 1.2755 level. We expect a cap to occur here and possibly turn the pair higher again. But if broken, expect further declines to develop towards the 1.2625 level. All in all, EUR faces further upside threats medium term.

USDCAD: Retains Its Upside Tone. USDCAD: With USDCAD maintaining its upside tone and holding firmly above the 0.9885 level, further price extension cannot be ruled. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 1.0000/83 levels on the cards. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9885 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair higher. However, if this fails, further declines should build up towards the 0.9692/31 levels. A breach of here will call for more declines towards the 0.9500 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the upside above the 0.9883 level.

USDCAD: With USDCAD maintaining its upside tone and holding firmly above the 0.9885 level, further price extension cannot be ruled. This leaves the possibility of a return to the 1.0000/83 levels on the cards. Its weekly RSI is bullish and pointing higher suggesting further upside. On the downside, support comes in at the 0.9885 level where a reversal of roles as support is likely to occur and turn the pair higher. However, if this fails, further declines should build up towards the 0.9692/31 levels. A breach of here will call for more declines towards the 0.9500 level. All in all, USDCAD remains biased to the upside above the 0.9883 level.

EURUSD: With EUR consolidating, there is risk of a return possibly to the 1.3171 level, its Sept 17’2012 high. A turn above here will call for a move higher towards its weekly ema at 1.3415 level. Its weekly RSI points higher suggesting further strength. On the downside, the risk to this analysis will be a return to the 1.2824 level. Further down, support lies at the 1.2692/1.2748 levels where a reversal of roles could occur. This could see the pair turn higher. However, if this fails to happen further declines will aim at the 1.2442 level. All in all, EUR looks to recapture the 1.3171 level on ending its consolidation.