ARTjoMS

Hi there, I really enjoy to read your thought process on the 1st page. My platform provides only usd and euro indexes. As far as I know usd index is based only on 4 pairs.. and EU is more than 50% weight. Don't even know about euro index. When you say ''weighted basket of currencies'' are they average weighted? Besides where could I find charts for other currencies? http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/technical-analysis/14432-leading-lagging-pairs-illusion.html Please take a look in the above topic and give me your opinion here. Do you think usd index had any real weight on causing actual retracement..? In other words.. could it possibly work as leading indicator for eur/usd.. or it is just a coincidence?

Here is a simple entry rules that aims to capture main moves and avoid choppy market. Rules: enter long if... after daily close above all 200 day period SMA's: (daily 200 + 5 trading days; daily 200 + sundays including; 40 week + mon-fri; 40 week + sun-fri) You can find: 2 candles in a row that both are fully outside of SMA's and closes above all previous bars. (I didn't want to score choppy market... I tried to get less trades, not necessarily profit optimized.) enter short when opposite conditions are met. Stop loss = close below (above) highest (lowest) SMA. (There are also other sensible options) Take profite = look on charts and decide yourself I will provide exit as "close between any lines" and also give max pips possible. Only EUR/USD pair; manual testing; 1st trade on 2005.05.06. Exit max pips possible: 530 986 254 687 2600 3280 1000 2329 (it went like +2329 then back to SMA, but no close above any line, then +2213 when finally stopped out at +1000) -218 (there was no trade as per rules in one broker, but needed to get some losers too) 434 1230 entry was already 535 pips above highest SMA 672 2100 -237 250 -530 660 (taken 440 pips above highest MA) -329 (no trade per one broker... on has doji other has candle that has like 10 times smaller body than previous) -210 758 (taken 700 pipsabove SMA, other broker showed much faster entry) -161 280 -180 (last 2 trades would be one in other broker: 780 1615) I consider worst case. -589 434 (taken 440 below SMA, same doji thing.. no real entry) 898 1680 (trade taken 600 below SMA other broker showed entry 270 pips faster) 2 traders a year... I guess this is not for scalpers.. certainly not for scalpers. Raw data though, interpret and use as you like... if you are interested then check yourself and preferably on different pairs.

I tried to explain in OP how people are trying to see the same 200 day MA thing but readings differ... I don't see any great logics behind SMA and 200 days.. but that is what I find have worked as a support/resistance on particular pairs. I am not sure why people here have hard time accepting that MA can work as a support... It is a line, it has previously worked as support.. So on, that it is not horizontal, but dynamic. 1) It is likely to bounce off 2) Breakout suggest change in sentiment. 3) After breakout it is often tested. My main concerns were: 1) If people had the same readings of the same thing they might all benefit. 2) Considering what others see might give an edge. Maybe I am trading pure PA... but if I know that market is looking at 50% fibonacci, 200 day sma, pivots etc. And they all come together (confluence) it should give me an edge as to where I can try to enter with very tight sl.

Where is that ''do whatever gives you an edge/makes most money..'' attitude gone? I personally find that 200 day SMA often acts like a dynamic support/resistance line and lets say it is my edge that I am aware of. I know there are various ways of how you can define a support/resistance, but from such a respected poster I didn't expect so one-sided opinion like: get rid of this and that and use that and that. "A support level is a price level where the price tends to find support as it is going down. This means the price is more likely to "bounce" off this level rather than break through it. However, once the price has passed this level, by an amount exceeding some noise, it is likely to continue dropping until it finds another support level." - one definition. There is no magic behind stuff like 200 day SMA, trendlines, Fibonacci, round numbers, pivot points, last swing lows etc. except people (or whatever controls the market) look at their charts, see them and then act accordingly. Knowing what others see is an edge.. you like it or not. P.S. I want to remind (as this has gone slightly off topic) my main question: "What I wanted to ask is how do you cope (if you have to) with issues like this?" And the issue was: people inconsistency of drawing/calculating same thing. Be it MA's, horizontal support levels, trendlines, channels, Fibonacci etc.

Hi there, when a trader puts 200-day SMA indicator on his chart he is probably hoping to see that indicator that market has great respect for, but not all traders see the same exact thing. That is because some are using 40 week SMA, some have 6 trading days in a week... and readings obviously differ. OK-ey, the difference isn't zillion pips, but still... it might be quit important for those who use daily MA's as possible entry/exit signals. This issue is of course also related to trend lines, channels, etc. What I wanted to ask is how do you cope (if you have to) with issues like this? In other words.. do you consider only what you see or also things that others might see?!

Hello, here I am going to look on possible technical (support and resistance type only) reasons that could have helped to have anticipated recent eur/usd retrace right where it was (I am talking about the retrace that started on 17.09) Market had rallied sharply and came into price zone where it had stayed for 15 weeks (end of January - end of April), however none of those obvious horizontal resistance levels were reached and price decided to retrace right away. So.. how one could anticipate retrace right there before it started!? So I want to examine reliability (or possible illusion) of 3 reasons that I found. (I went through other charts as well, but I might have missed something too). Retrace from upper channel. Channel lines gets built on recent market bottom, support in late 2010 and resistance on 2012.02.26 (can probably count 2010.10.31 as well). Weekly chart. USDINX - support level. Ok, I like to think this works like following not leading chart, but... price reached significant 5 months old support level.... and bounced off. AUDUSD - resistance................. Price moved into 5 week old resistance level and penetrated it for healthy 10 pips to bounce back. I am not sure for what kind of input I am looking for, but if you feel like you can add some value then go, please, ahead. Good luck. :missy:

Hey, OP contained only single question mark, but you don't say a word about guys who hit stop loss. ( however your replay gives me more confidence that I am on the right side ) What you said was nothing new, but still very nice explanation.

Hello, there was one thing that I thought is quite intuitive and logical, but recently I have encountered seemingly contradictory opinions.. so I start this thread. Not long time ago I started a thread where I touched a subject of false break outs and why they happen. I said something like ..I assumed it is partial profit taking from guy who did (participated) in the break out... But on member answered that "maybe it is some short term people taking losses.", well I didn't give much of a credit for him, but now I am reading similar thing in a very respectable book. Author talks about 2B pattern (on type of false break out) and explains his reasoning why this pattern happens and also goes on to tell about stop orders. I have thought/heard that e.g. in a bull market corrections happen because of profit taking. So ...if I buy ... prices move up (if I have enough money to move market), when I close my positions prices move down. If I am short in a bull market and hit my stop loss - prices should move up not down, no? What is going on here?

It appears from comments in the link that ''he'' is actually she... i believe woman in general have different view on things including trading so what works for them doesn't necessarily work for us. As to OP. Constant sl most probably isn't the best way how to approach a trade, but it certainly makes things simpler and avoids getting in trouble with making bad, emotional judgements.. As far as i understand - hers idea is not to close position until you think that closing your positions and initiating position in the other direction is a better option. If so ..and if she can pull it off then i would say she is one step ahead.

OK, for the sake of discussion I want to give some examples i am curious about. Here are 3 somewhat similar price movements (that i am throwing in the false break basket) and there are many more in gold/usd like this. My questions are same... who is doing this and for what reasons. How much money do you actually need to move market like this? How many players are actually causing this? Is it a one man show or 2 big guys betting against each other? I have no idea who is doing the 1st advance, but i would assume that 3rd movement (price reverting back to mean) is partial profit taking from guy who did the 2nd (big upside-down) movement. What happened to the big guys in 1st advance.. are they stepped out? What happened to guy or guys who made that big 2nd movement.. i am assuming they can't be totally out, but maybe they are out by like 50%? A lot of questions, sorry... but still hoping to get some feedback.

Hi there, I seems to me like there is quite a lot of information about market that is not really open to public. And there are questions that I am looking answer for, but struggle to find... ''It is estimated that 95% of forex participants are currency speculators'' - are banks regarded as speculators? This number feels high to me as it resembles percent of people who lose money, after i read this i wanted to unintentionally continued to myself... ''and they all including banks lose money '' Here a few questions: 1) How big part of market is using technical analysis as their primary tool? 2) It feels to me that there are some participants who have enough money to move market as they want (at least short term). Do they use it for speculative reasons and... are they succeeding ? 3) What happens in those false breakouts? Who is doing what? You can often hear something like ''big guys come in'', in some sense it is probably true, but to move market you already need to be a big guy...and epsilon plus epsilon is still epsilon I have many more questions like these, but basically I am willing to understand who is doing what and why in the forex martket... Maybe there is some good book on resources that can help answer questions like these? Thanks and good luck

Thanks, the reason why i asked about it was because i felt like if i had to make such a histogram i would do it differently: every time price moves up or down i would put +1 for new price in histogram to get greater accuracy. Of course putting small time frame and zooming out to maximum does give quite smooth price by volume histogram, but still. I understand that it might not make a big difference, but as a math student i have used to be precise.

Thanks for answer. Well, i'm just a curious newbie. I was thinking that early VWAP (while it just starts to build on) is of no use and maybe someone is using what i described. Also i was wondering how close VWAP and MA are and how they correlate. I have a question about how these price by volume histograms are created. I looked at some code and i might as well be wrong, but it felt like only information that was used to build histogram was volume + bar open + bar close + bar high +bar low, am i right? I'm thinking about this in context of forex (tick) volume.

Hello. I wonder if anyone is using VWAP for a fixed number of time periods (like MA). I think that thus far i have only seen vwap that is set at one particular time and eventually builds on, but i'm not sure as i haven't looked at codes. Also i wonder what would be relationships between such VWAP and MA assuming same number of time periods. Thank you.