DutchDandy

I have had two reactions, but no answers to my question...

You are right, might not have been totally clear. I want to project my past good trades, on a set of rules. When I look at the historical charts of the stocks I played, I see a significant change in the pattern of the price and volume. I need a set of rules that can tell me if a future change is significant. To do so I check my past trades and check how significant a change on the charts really was. That is why I need a function that automatically calculates the sample size (# of tick data) . When you watch over 500 stock, you really need the right sample size to have a clear idea if the change is significant for that moment. With a too large sample size the variation is too large and with a too small sample size all the changes become significant. I now use a static rule on the sample sizes. (5/10/20/60/260 days). I want to have it automatically. By the way, for me a significant move is at least 2*SD.

He is good at setting-up the rules. But you have a point.... My input is more analyzing my own trades and put them in to a rule. Since I don't trade like a robot, I need to set-up a couple of rules. I trade patterns and that is why I need to translate what I see as a significant increase of price and volume it to a rule. Because I want to test out a couple of statistical tests, I want to check my own historical trading data. :missy: Having Excel calculating the sample size etc., would help me to see what I did good and wrong.

Hi all, I have been busy crunching data for a while, because I have found a partner that does an excellent job with algorithmic trading. But I came to a hold, because statistics isn't my best skill. And I want to spot a correlation between, movement/volume etc. That is the easy part, thanks to Excel. So what I now need is to have a tool to automaticly use the right sample size. Haven't found the function in Excel for that. When I have the right sample size, I want to have Excel tell me when a change in the stock is significant. (Change in volume and stock price). The whole idea is very simple yet clever. I have set a criterium for the stocks, price range and public trade stock. You will be having a list over 500 stock, these stock tend to do nothing really. But when the algo spots a change in volume of stock price, I need to know if that move is significant enough. :missy: Any Excel-wizard or statistic-geniuses around to help me out? Cheers

Ok thanks, think I go with IQfeed, for now.

I want to pay for them, no problem

What is a good place to get historical data of small caps? 1 sec ticks are good enough for now and I just want to have a couple of hundred shares with a time span of 2-6 years I guess.

LOL love my own typo/spelling mistakes.

That is absolutely true! No one wants to sell of their secrets or gives away free-bees. I have done some fair time appraising companies for large Dutch banks, and advised them on what they should finance or how they could exit a company. So I have a good sense of knowing what a good price is. Anyhow I think that I have to offer something too and combined with people that know how to make it to an auto trader. So we all can make decent money on it.

I'll be more than happy to purchase an auto trader. Main problem with what I experience is that I have to share my input and buy an easily copied piece of script, what makes it an self fulfilling prophecy. So if I don't watch out, I will be holding the bag in the end. Did should you a little message anyhow, because we might find a good way to exploit both our knowledge. "It is not expensive if you can sell it with a profit"

My algo trading wet dream, is the ultimate algo: you ditch loads of (stock) information in an programme and it tries to find a correlation between all data. There are algorithms that do such thing, take the pricing system behind Amazon.com. The problem with stocks are that the amount of data can be from the stock prices to the volume, other stocks, indices etc. MUST SEE Ted presentation on algorithms: Kevin Slavin: How algorithms shape our world | Video on TED.com

@Alwaysastudent I really don't know if I want to purchase or just tap in to someones else it's project. I have a fairly good idea what I want to do. At this moment I play small stocks on the momentum(swings) and I do rather well, so I want to do something with that. There are approximately 500 stocks listed on NASDAQ Capital Market, so it is hard to keep on track with all of them and especially when I like to play some OTC too. I don't think that I need to be crazy quick with the algorithm, because with my slow human-speed I can keep up too . @4evermaat Thanks for your insight. I have been trading for some time now and have played all kinds of papers, so I am not totally unaware. I know that it can be tricky to use a blackbox, but with the great amount of material to do backtesting and not putting all my money on the table I think I am fairly safe. @Bluehorseshoe I fully agree with you on that one.

Hi all, I have been trading for some time now (15 years) and I have been always fascinated by blackbox trading. All the secrets surrounding this way of trading is just great, it is no wonder that they call it blackbox trading, because it is very hard to find a good algoritm. Anyhow I started this post, because I want you to shine light on me and make me more (wall) street wise on this topic. In an ideal world I would want to have self learning algoritm, but if you could give that to me you wouldn't be posting on this forum I guess (please tell me I am wrong :rofl:). So what I am after what is more doable, is an algoritm to play small stocks on exchanges like NASDAQ and OTC. I have been fascinating by these small plays, because they are too small for big companies. I make some profit with a combination of indicators, but because there are so many small stocks to play, I can't play them all at once. That is why I want a computer to help me do the trading or even take over the whole trading :missy:. If you are familiar with this kind of an algoritm based trading or you know which way to go with this, please get in contact with me. I am willing to learn badly and do business. Cheers, Pieter

Cheers, that looks promising.

OBV on how many days?

Thanks! I know that you can't know for sure, but as one of the top traders has such a low rate of success with the picks, I am pretty much shocked. I use my paper trade account for some time now and I don't do bad at my picks. I trade mainly on volume change and then go to price shifts. Lots of small plays don't have that much share trade from owner, so without volume you still don't "know" the real price.

My main problem with tools like those is that, it becomes a self fulfilling prophecy if enough users are using those tools... :shocked: (Tried to post some links, but the admin erased those) On small caps traders who don't pick very well, but it seems like because they cut their losses, that they make money. So how to know when to cut your loss and how to become a better stock picker?

@All (especially Tradewinds, with that monster post) Thanks for the tips and tricks, I will take a good look at it and set everything ready for monday when the stock exchange opens :missy:... I have been testing all kinds of indicators and if you look at historical data like Mikhoul provided, you can be always right because you can see where the stock price went in the end. ... But I need to know for "sure" where the price is going, and pick the right indicators/assumptions/strategy to go with that. That is why I test everything on my paper trade account with live data, so I can't "cheat" myself. If you take a look at profit.ly, you see a lot of traders making gains on small caps (my favorite are Tim Sykes and FousAlerts), my problem with these kind of traders is that when you want to trade with them you have to pay top dollar and their explanation is always with historical charts (bought all the Tim Sykes dvd's to get a better idea of day trading and yes everything with historical charts). Look-up mister Fous with FousAlerts, as you take a look at his stats: Number of Trades :1035 # Wins: 579 # Losses: 456 Winning %: 55.94% Avg $ Gain: $865 Avg % Gain: 5.8% You can say he is slightly more right than wrong, yet he makes a lot of money... He uses all kinds of chart patterns, and yet he explains everything with historical charts. Only way to make a solid profit with these kind of "bad" trades, is to cut losses and grow gains. Now the big BUT, when he has is slightly more right, does the technical approach really work for him? What are your gains/losses etc.? At the end everybody trades sometimes "with" and sometimes "against" the others.

Hi Henry, I use IB and use their study tools. EMA(9) and EMA(15) to see a shift in the trend (crossing each other) Momentum(9) to see a difference in momentum. But with these I still don't have a clear indication of the direction of the stock. Cheers

Hi all, I am new on this forum, but I have been around the stock market for over 10 years now. I used to play the hypes, like shortening financials during the credit crunch and shorting FB . BUT since a couple of months I am busy developing my own day trading style and for me focussing on the momentum is a great help when going long. :missy: Have been reading al about day/momentum trading on this forum, but I have two questions that pop-up when I am busy trading small caps. 1) I haven't found any good technical analytic tools that are used yet. I use different EMA's to see trend switching, but the signal is mainly too late for my taste... So what is a good combination of indicators? 2) Stock scanning, I have a junkmail account to receive al kinds of pumps (good tips are always welcome!), but I would like to have a more active way to scan for good stocks. When using finance.yahoo.com you only can focus on the price gain and I just would love to have a tool that I can check sudden volume increase too. Maybe a alert of some kind? Hope to learn a lot and share my knowledge on this forum. Cheers :helloooo:, Pieter

Hi, Did you find any good scanners yet? I mainly use Twitter, newsletters and message boards to fill my watch list.