natureboy1618

Have you run it on myfxbook, etc?

Fastest execution... yes that matters especially in equities. not nearly as much in more liquid fx access. Automation helps, automating in C++ on Linux even better.. give yourself an edge. You may not be colocated - i don't think anyone in FX is! its OTC If the biggest players reverse on you, then the market could fake you out. It can happen. What is important is the bottom line after 100+ trades. One fake out, provided you don't lose too much, is normal every so often. I'm confused - isn't trend confirmation basically the same as directional signal? You have two preferably uncorrelated tools telling you "bearish", then you call one 'signal' and one 'confirmation' ... eh. News would be to tell you when to pay attention to your trend/direction tools. Time can be a very important component.

Trends. Its how to roll. I just posted this in another thread - you may like it. Apparently trends are quite natural. So how to best trade the trend once you have one? My -- You mention buy low, sell high. Retracement patterns, my focus, help to do that. I just did a webinar for the MTA about that. Truly can help with trend trading. Not to schill my own stuff - other approaches work too - just seriously though, retracement patterns in trends can work. Money management, Exits, Entries. So a big piece of the real work then, as always, is identifying when a trend is happening. Breakouts, Volume, Momentum patterns, Volatility measures, trend logic can all work - some of the time. Maximizing the return then can be achieved (in my view) from using multiple timeframes and automation...The exits can be trailing and targets (i think a mixture of exits is better than one, that's just me).. and money at risk history and now have to be followed keenly - current results can only deviate so much from the past to keep trading the concept... Have to find the balance that works for you and your own style....trend definitely can be your friend though. Nice post RC

That's the real point. Even great trend trading methods can have win rates of 30-40%. Whether the markets are random or not doesn't even matter. The only thing that matters is how much is made on average vs how much is lost on average and the frequency of both over time (and keeping the trade distribution close to that average - no big losses). With a large enough reward to risk, you can make money with 10% accuracy, probably on 'random' price data and real price data. Purely academic.. As Steve from Santa Barbara pointed out, randomness itself is hard to model accurately with a computer (so even our estimations of 'random' are not in fact pure randomness).. You can use Brownian motion of bacteria as a random model... even then, you see trends! They call it 'drift'. So even with natural models of randomness you see trends. Now do trends in prices occur more frequently than drifts in brownian motion? I'll leave that to a PhD.. i'm interested in making money. Lets get a thread going about making money.. step 2..

seems a limited definition..

I know some pros use the RadarScreen functionality of TS. So many funds are into the arb/HF game, which C++ is the fastest. EL is great for prototyping, and for some live functionalities. TS offers prime brokerage, they mention it in their website... from what i've read most funds use C++ or Python. For speed eventually my plan is to run everything in C++ on Bodhi

Nice. Thank you for this. I'm checking it out now.

have to consider costs though..

Re: being in the market all the time - that is actually not necessarily what day traders do.. The defining activity for day trading is entering and exiting within the same day; trading every day is not implicit. May want to look into why some days are more attractive to trade than others..

I must say i do like the Arms index. Still experimenting with it, though it does appear to be workable (i've only really looked at two week data).. My first thought was to use an OB extreme close to forecast a down day in the S&P tomorrow. Doesn't always work, i'll be looking into it some more though

My understanding of strength indicators in FX is that they are calculated solely on price. Open interest is for futures.. I guess you could use currency futures as a proxy, though it could be inaccurate. Strength comes from relative strength in stocks, i.e. comparing individual security performance to an index. Performance being defined by momentum rankings. With currencies, there is no 'index', rather each currency pair with same base (e.g. EUR) is used to find the average momentum ranking for the Euro itself, giving a EUR line... That line can then be compared with say the USD line and find correlations with EURUSD rate 'trends/breakouts/ranges'... No volume used.

No. There are ways to make good money.

TA can offer an edge. Using a pseudorandom number generator to take random entries I recently showed in a talk how using pattern entries can be better than random. How could I do that? TA methods can be defined exactly enough to measure - including chart patterns. I'm a TA guy, so i'm sensitive on this one... i want people to understand its not garbage. Statistical proof? Dude. Read NonRandom Walk Down Wall Street... Statistical as you can get. Trading will seldom be easy.. Even when TA offers an edge. People will screw themselves too often to allow an edge to play out, poor money management, emotionally driven behavior.. Even in automation things can go wrong and poor human decision making comes in to play (Knight).. Many TA approaches are no good by themselves - i'll agree with that.. its like sifting for gold, you can't stare at each unsifted pile and toss it out without even looking!

Ok. I'm no expert. I know in strategy you can either buy next bar at market or buy this bar limit... possibly buy next bar limit. So can you assign the btt value as the limit price by declaring its value a variable, use the var for the limit price? One issue is with candles, it may form the candle pattern intrabar, but not close that way. So you may have a trade off between certainty of candle pattern (per your rules) and price you're able to enter on. I'll work on this some more.. I've seen some other threads on here where some folks appeared to know what they are doing. Also, post on the TS forums, the TS staff is often helpful. If you get stumped, i know a pro who can do this for you. Costs a little.

Is the S/R value coming from the same chart that your candle patterns are on? If so, you need to either include the indicator code for your DBox in the strategy.. or use a call function if possible. If its on another timeframe you'll need to use ADE - free on the TS forums. If its on another chart type.. that's more difficult, though i think there are some commercial solutions out there.

Did you try changing strategy properties, position limits(for pyramiding strategies) to when the order is generated by a different order?

Cool, yeah i was going to suggest ADE next.. i see you've got it. Good luck with it, let me know how it turns out.

OP - you can read over and over, many posters telling you to have a rules based system. It IS REQUIRED. You have trading rules that are objective, possibly programmable, then you can verify or disprove that your approach is mathematically profitable. Once you know your Win Rate and Reward to Risk numbers over 100 trades (generally, more is better, dep. on your system random periods tested over time is better) - you can run Monte Carlos to see that you have a good chance of making money with those numbers or not.. That part is 'having an edge' You can STILL have the problems you described even when you have an edge! Its in your head ---- THE ONE THING UNMENTIONED THUS FAR IS REVIEW --- Reviewing your actual trades and comparing this with your rules can reveal, especially when starting out or returning after a break, that you may have thought you were following your system when in fact your behavior was ... something else. Its crazy and illuminating - we can know what to do and do something else (and feel like we were doing the thing we were supposed to)... or something like that. Anyway - Review your trades, make sure they line up with your rules based approach. Get a rules based approach if you don't have one. Peace

Sleep. 7-8hrs really required. I notice if sleep is missing more than anything else. As far as food - paleo diet best for the body. Nutrition- you all may laugh, check out Bruce Lee's routine I use anabolic herbs from HerbPharm - Astragalus, Gotu Kola, Ginseng. Others include Jiaogulan, makes a sweet tea, and Reishi hot water extract. All are good tonics, boost immunity, reduce fatigue. Exercise, stretching improves overall health, naturally. NewChapter has great vitamins and supplements - BroccoLive, their One-Daily whole food vitamin, and their Green Tea extracts are best. Broccoli Sprouts are anticancer. Drink Blueberry juice also - powerful antioxidant!! 5 small meals with fruit and nut snacks in between - instead of 3 larger ones. Whole foods folks, with whole food vitamin, exercise, and distilled water -- plenty of sleep. Sans souci - take time to be quiet --- All adds up to a clearer, faster mind allowing better practice/execution/thinking

News... I personally like most news releases. If you go back and look at prices in FX intraday, you find many of the intraday trends begin near news releases. Furthermore, avoiding news is tough as there are so many releases. For my money, i trade most news events. I skip FOMC and NFP usually, may trade the after math. Success in using news for me involves trading the market's reaction to the release, having a reliable indication of direction prior to or concurrent with the price action around the release, and using multiple timeframes to get better Reward to Risk. Works for me.

Ok - it is possible, you should automate on Data2 and send the orders to Data1. If you have a more specific question, i'll try to help.

I have been VERY pleased with IB. Fills were great, spread was small.. never one issue in one year trading. Contrast that with Gain, and Dukascopy(which bad fills there was a latency issue i believe - i'm in the US).... IB is top of the line in FX fills (at least at the level i trade).

I did until you said something... it seems like a random model is applied a disproportionate amount of the time as a crutch.. an approximation.. in quant finance. My posts in this thread are completely on an academic level - curious how folks around here think. Its not so much that patterns are present in random data, more that certain patterns in random data could hold an element of nonrandomness that strikes me... its not surprising to me anymore, either... a thread on randomness, had to offer my

You can have a strategy on Data1 that is receiving information from Data2. I've done that for a confirmation.. You're saying you having orders generated using data1 that are then executed on data2.... hm. i'll ask my resident EL guru, get back to you

i know, but its weird to find the same patterns in 'random data' ... this has zero to do with making money. Check. Its just thinking material. If you could show that patterns with say 72% probability leading indication are in random data, what does THAT say about randomness... for instance? Nothing is ever totally random