Dunstan

Hi everyone, CFTC has resumed publishing the cot reports, they are up-to-date again!  The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS - 36%, SS - 18% / If we look at the last one year, we can find that similar large changes in Trader’s positions preceded the rallies. Although we don’t have a large extreme in the cot report, the recurring patterns seem to be convincing. Nasdaq-100 COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / There is an unquestionable bull market here… even if we’ve got an All Time cot extreme that is indicating a top, we should be very careful entering against the obvious trend. Of course the Risk/Reward on such a trade could be pretty tempting Cocoa COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / The large cot extreme in Cocoa has been present for many weeks now, but without any real price reaction. Still, I think there is great opportunity here, so we shouldn’t forget about this market! I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, It seems that the U.S. Shutdown has an effect on us, people who follow the cot reports. The CFTC has stopped issuing the reports for now. Let’s hope that this situation will not last very long! All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 29%, SS - 54% / COT Extreme / C-553 report, LS – All Time COT extreme / The huge change in Trader’s positions and the All Time cot extreme both are very strong bearish signals… the rally be over for some time now. USD Index COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS - 26%, SS - 18% / If we analyze the past one year of the USD Index, we can find that it reacted pretty well to cot change signals. In the latest report we can find a larger that average change, which can be considered a bullish signal. Cocoa COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Stress levels are high, we are expecting prices to reach a top soon. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS - 36%, SS - 26% / The large change in Trader’s positions may shake prices a bit (we could see declining prices), but in the medium/long term, I don’t see, why prices could not rally further. Since the last major cot extreme, prices are again going higher/stress levels are decreasing. I may be wrong, but I would expect a larger, close to All-Time cot extreme to signal the top. British Pound COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 28%, SS - 11% / The cot change and the relative extreme in the market may put an end to the rally. The fact that only Small Speculators are optimistic about the rally is also a bearish signal. Of course one may argue: stress levels in British Pound are not at their peak levels yet, thus prices can rally further… well, as always, I urge everyone to look not only at the cot data, but use it together with other TA tools. Simply looking at a longer chart, it is clearly visible, that prices are not far from important resistance levels. Corn COT Extreme / C-448 report, LS – 449 report COT extreme / If we look at a longer chart, we can see that all obvious bottoms in prices correlated with major cot extremes, when commercials were net long. This is the situation right now. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Sugar COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 26%, SS - 45% / The large change in Trader’s positions suggest that prices will drop. Of course we never should forget to look at the bigger picture. If we open a longer chart, we can find that not long ago we were in a very bearish looking cot extreme situation (commercials net long). Traders are moving away from these extreme territories, and as they do, prices are rallying. Cocoa COT Extreme / All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS / Last week’s comment is still alive: prices should reach a top soon. 5-Year Note COT Extreme / C-408 report, LS – 293 report, SS – 411 report COT extreme / Judging by last week’s price reaction, we may have reached the bottom. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Thanks:) I'm very glad if I could help! All the best, Dunstan

Hi tradingwizzard, I hope you will not base your relationship towards cot analysis only on the example we are talking about: the Euro. COT analysis is really a very helpful tool, but Yes, there are times, when it will not give you an absolute clear signal. This is the situation in Euro at the moment. One may start arguing that the chances of a rally or a decline are larger/smaller, but in my opinion it is much better to move on to markets, where the signals are clearer. COT data is issued weekly, by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) and it is showing Trader’s positions on most of the major Futures markets. It is thus not a derivative of price, so the cot charts shouldn’t be viewed as simple technical indicators (like RSI for example). This is what gives value to the data… it is showing us what major participants of markets are doing. I strongly advise you to read through my earlier posts if you have time, or watch couple of the following videos. I wish not to be rude or anything, just I don’t want to put too much time and effort explaining something, that is already there:) You will find many great examples that will highlight the effectiveness of cot analysis. If you have any questions afterwards, I’m here to answer them! [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_68VHKzRWHM]VID1[/ame] – Basics about the report [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q40U3I_CCQ8]VID2[/ame] – Basics about the report [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1w7ApHgX3dc]VID3[/ame] – COT analysis tools and examples All the best, Dunstan

Hi tradingwizzard, There are times, when the cot data does not give us a clear signal on future price action. A large change in trader's positions many times trigger a price action, but the effect is not as long lasting as in case of an extreme - this is my experience. In the case of EURO, we've got a larger change, so we can speculate that prices will rally... but if we look at the extreme, we suddenly feel the situation to be a bit bearish. If we state that cot changes effect prices in the near term and extremes on a medium to long term (>1-2 weeks), then of course we can say that the case is very easy --> all we need to do is go long for a few days and then exit it and switch to a short trade... I don't think that it is that easy - this is my own opinion. All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. EURO COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS - 12%, SS - 27% / EURO became first on the list in respect to large changes in Commercials positions.. this could mean that prices will rally, but the cot extreme (relative) that is present suggests that prices will continue their fall. It’s not a clear picture… Cocoa COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS / The cot extreme that is present in this market is telling us that prices cannot rally for too long anymore. I agree with it. 5-Year Note COT Extreme / C-293 report, LS – 179 report, SS – 394 report COT extreme / The extreme is pretty clear, so we are expecting a bottom to develop soon… of course, looking at longer charts (>10 year), we can find even greater extremes, so if prices continued their decline, we shouldn’t be surprised. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27% / The situation is interesting here, because the large change in Trader’s position is suggesting that price should rebound / get back into rally mode, but then again, we’ve just reached a cot extreme level that could easily turn this uptrend into a down trend. Cotton COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS - 22%, SS – 15% / Similarly to S&P, we’ve got the two major cot signals pointing in opposite directions: the change is suggesting that prices will rise, but the extreme is still in place and it is showing us a bearish picture. Cocoa COT Extreme / Close to All-Time COT extreme / The Extreme in Cocoa is pushing prices lower. If Commercials could reach a net short level of <25-20.000 contracts, we’d get a relative extreme that may push prices to rally mode. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 30%, LS - 28% / The large change in the latest cot report indicates that prices will rise instead of continuing their decline. The situation in indexes is very exciting, cause we have an extreme or to say: large stresses amongst indexes these days, but I think that (it’s just a feeling:)) we will see an even greater extreme in the next few weeks/months, before prices really reach a top. Live Cattle COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS - 24%, SS – 11% / Both of our major cot signals are telling us that prices will fall --> We’ve witnessed another large change in Trader’s positions and as it happened, we’ve reached a relatively larger cot extreme (let’s just open a three year long chart) that is bearish signal. Cotton COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / There is a definite extreme in Cotton as we can see and prices have already reacted. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Sugar COT Change (52W) / C – 29%, LS - 25%, SS – 31% / The latest cot report is showing us that there were large changes in Trader’s positions. This, combined with the extreme in the market suggests that prices should continue their rise. Copper COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 31%, SS – 11% / The huge change in Commercials and Large Speculators positions tells us that prices may easily fall a bit, but let’s not forget that a few reports ago, we were at a major cot extreme which signaled the latest bottom and is still in effect. Lean Hogs COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme / Although there was a roll-over in contracts here, it is still obvious that price have declined since last week’s signal… the extreme in this market is supporting the further decline of prices. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Coffee COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 25%, SS – 8% / The change in commitments of traders report and also the extreme (Commercials net long) both give us bullish signals. When the rally starts, we’re gonna see Commercials go back to deep net short territories. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme / After last week’s rally it seem that we may have reached the bottom… if the rally continues this week, we should see market participants move away from their extremes. Lean Hogs COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture is pretty obvious here, we are at or close to the top in prices --> the extreme is huge in Lean Hogs! I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 22%, SS – 30% / The change size in recent cot report and the relative extreme that we’re at suggests a bottoming of prices soon. Since we are not at a major extreme level, which would be a clearer signal to act on, we should be careful with a long trade. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / All market participants are at All Time or close to All Time extreme levels in their net positions. This means that stress levels are very high in Australian Dollar --> the bubble should burst our sooner or later. Of course the big question is as always: when? S&P-400 COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / The COT Extreme in Indexes is getting larger and larger as prices are moving higher. In my opinion the rally will continue into September and we will get much larger extremes before we reach the top. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, Sorry, but it seems that COTbase.com did not post a new Commitments of Traders review this time. Anyhow, I will give you an update as usual:) Coffee COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 22% / The change in the cot report was large and suggesting a bearish move --> as we see it today, prices did decline a bit. The longer/wider picture on the other hand is still pretty bullish: Commercials are net long, which in most cases throughout Coffee’s history happened when prices were low. Crude Oil COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Prices seem to support us --> the cot extreme may be in effect, thus we can expect the decline to continue. Lean Hogs COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Commercials and Large Speculators (unfortunately without Small Speculators being in extreme) are at an All Time extreme level in their net positions. This, as we can see in the past is a very bearish signal, so we can expect prices to continue their decline that started roughly two weeks ago. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 26% / A bit larger change then average, but I don’t think it deserves too much attention. What’s more interesting is that the extreme is again widening, which means the rally is still not over. Crude Oil COT Extreme / C ,LS – All Time COT extreme / Last week’s comment is still in place: “The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long).” Australian Dollar COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / The All Time extreme situation in Australian Dollar has been present for over a month now and it seems that prices are starting to react. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Rough Rice COT Change (52W) / C – 40%, LS - 53% / It seems that we are witnessing again another large change in traders positions. The last couple of times the signals were affective, so we can expect prices to react to the recent one as well. Crude Oil COT Extreme / C – 121 Report, LS – All Time COT extreme / The extreme in Crude Oil is large, but the bearish picture would be even more solid if Small Speculators were at an extreme (above 40.000 contract net long). Gold COT Extreme / C – 601 Report, LS – 439 report COT extreme / The stress level in Gold is extremely high… we’ve reached levels that we didn’t see for over ten years now. In my opinion, we are looking at an extremely bullish picture. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts Commitments of Traders basics

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O8qA371xF_4&feature=c4-overview&list=UUIPXgu1ZbbebeTnhfSk6QCQ]here[/ame]). Oats COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 27%, SS – 36% / The large change in the cot report suggests that prices will rally, but the longer time frame is painting a different picture: there was a pretty large cot extreme last week that may push prices lower. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / All Time Extreme still, stress levels are building up. The big question: when can we see prices react to this large extreme or would we witness a rally at all (commercial capitulation). Gold COT Extreme / C – 600, LS - 438 report COT extreme / Stresses are really high in metals these days… we’ve reached extremes that we haven’t seen for over 10 years now!! The pictures is bullish. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bbB4nPSM3V8]here[/ame]). Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS - 31%, SS - 41% / Large changes in Traders positions that have a bullish bias, but let’s not forget that the recent cot extreme triggered the down leg which may continue further. Analyzing the Volume and Open interest last week, we can see that it is also a bearish signal. RBOB Gasoline COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS - 26%, SS - 22% / COT Extreme / C – 143 Report, LS – 144 report COT extreme / Bullish picture supported by the large change in the commitments of traders report and also the cot extreme. Copper COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / We’ve got a huge COT extreme (All Time) in Copper that is telling us: the decline in prices may be over soon. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bmwvngxnm74]here[/ame]). Rough Rice COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 53% / If you remember, we talked about rough rice a few reports ago and now looking at the chart, we can see that the large cot change back then was a very nice bullish signal that resulted in a successful trade for anyone, who took it. This time, we have another large change, but it is a bearish signal. Since we are also close to a bullish cot extreme, the question is: which signal to follow (?). Well, the shorter, one year charts suggests that we should expect a decline in prices --> rough rice reacts to these large changes, so we may expect it to do so again. Of course we shouldn’t forget about the longer term picture too… Crude Oil COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Even if Small Speculators seem to be pessimistic about this market (which usually is a bullish signal), the other two major participants are at cot extremes that have a bearish bias. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Another Commercial Capitulation? The pictures is very much similar to the once we had in Japanese Yen. We’ve got a huge (All Time) cot extreme, but prices seem to neglect the signal. If this is the case, we can expect a very serious decline in prices. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ui32k-YNAQ]here[/ame]). Oats COT Change (52W) / C – 53%, LS 60% / The large change in the commitments of traders report can be considered a bearish signal, so we may see a bit of a price decline. We can’t talk about a very large cot extreme, but there is a relative one if you just look at a shorter period of time, such as the one-year chart. Heating Oil COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / The extreme is still widening even though prices have reacted to it many weeks ago. We can expect prices to go even higher. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture in the commitments of traders report is the same as last week, we have a beautiful All Time extreme situation. If you haven’t seen my earlier warnings, it is still not late to take a trade! I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vz4rHNBUbck]here[/ame]). New Zealand Dollar COT Change (52W) / C&LS 22% / The latest cot report shows us that both the change in trader’s positions and the extreme in the market are painting a bullish picture. If we look at the longer term charts, we can see that NZD nicely reacted to these extremes. We may need to wait one or two more weeks, before the bottom develops, but it’s definitely getting closer. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS & SS – All Time COT extreme / The extreme is more evident here than in NZD. The COT report shows us that all major players in the market are at their all time extreme level. The picture is very bullish. British Pound COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Seems that the cot extreme that developed a few months ago and which started to push prices higher is still widening. Prices should continue their rally. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uINQf8gQAyg]here[/ame]). Nasdaq-100 COT Extreme / LS-All Time COT extreme / The cot picture suggests that the rally we see in prices has come to an end, at least temporarily. Silver COT Extreme / C – 616 report, LS – 527 report COT extreme / There’s an unquestionable bullish picture in metals now if we look at the cot report. The question is of course – as always – when would prices react? Japanese Yen COT Extreme / LS – 306 report COT extreme / We know now, that the All Time COT extreme that developed at the end of 2012 did not produce a rally, but rather a rare situation that we call commercial capitulation. The extreme in this market is still present, yet we do not see the weakening of this decline. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5g-h_VXJ_JE]here[/ame]). Coffee COT Change (52W) / C-36%, LS-32%, SS-24% / COT Long-term Trend: DOWN Large Speculators could not stay long, thus we may easily see the further widening of the cot extreme: Commercials heading back to above 20.000 contracts net long levels. If this is the case, we should expect prices to continue their decline, even if the change this time can be regarded as a bullish signal (but of course we should know by now:) that cot changes have a short lasting effect -> prices may rise for a few days). Wheat (Chicago) COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-20%, SS-30% / COT Extreme / not far from all time COT extreme / Both of our major cot signals are pointing upwards, a large change in traders positions and the extreme in the market. The last two extremes lasted for quite some time, so we may need to wait a bit for the rally to happen. British Pound COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme / Until we reach the bottom in prices of early this year, the preceding cot extreme is still in place and prices can continue their rally. If the mentioned level is broken and prices fall deeper, we may find ourselves in a similar situation as we had in Japanese Yen a few months ago, a Commercial Capitulation. Of course these rarely happen, so it’s not the scenario we should bet on. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mGENYyYvliY]here[/ame]). Coffee COT Change (52W) / C-41%, LS-36%, SS-25% / COT Long-term Trend: UP As Large Speculators gone back Long, we can start thinking of joining them. If you have a look at the historical charts, you’ll find that in most markets, Large Speculators are on the right side during trends. The fact that they are switching their views about the market, is very exciting! Although we have this large change in positions, I think that in a few weeks, but maybe only in a couple of months, we will see much higher prices. Swiss Franc COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-19%, SS-20% / COT Extreme / relative COT extreme / Although we are a bit away from All Time cot extreme levels, on a 5 year chart you can see that Commercial’s level of net long 30.000 contracts usually meant the start of a rally. We are at this level now. Of course the picture would be clearer if they were at 55-60.000 contracts, but this level of extreme combined with the large change size may convince us to open a long position. Heating Oil COT Extreme / C & LS-All Time COT extreme / We’ve got All Time extreme levels in the cot report this time in Heating Oil, that could easily mean higher prices soon! I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here