Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 38 / It’s really only the cot change signal that can affect prices now and of course downwards: we do not have a cot extreme situation at the moment. The last major extreme was the bullish one a few weeks ago and as you can see, it still in effect. S&P-400 COT Extreme / LS – 317 report, SS – All Time COT extreme / Small Speculators being all time optimistic about the market is always a warning sign:) Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 185, LS – 181 report COT extreme / Any questions here? The extreme has been present for a few weeks now and we can see that prices last week managed to rally nicely, so we may have the confirmation needed think seriously about further rallies in natural gas. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

It is my pleasure! Thanks for your kind post. All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 35, SS – 58% / The picture is bullish. The large change in Trader’s position, the relative cot extreme here and the more visible, large cot extreme in the Dow support further rally. Orange Juice COT Extreme / C – 294, LS – 294 report COT extreme / The cot extreme in orange juice is unquestionably large and showing a very bullish picture. Signals were nice and effective in this market, so I’d say we can really use this signal and consider a long trade. Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 184, LS – 180 report COT extreme / In contrary to OJ, here the extreme is only large in relative terms. We do see much greater extremes in the past, so it’s a bit difficult to tell, whether or not this extreme is capable of stopping the recent decline or not. It may be a wise idea to analyze other energy markets and taking into account the correlation between them. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-400 COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, SS – 44% / COT Extreme / C – 49 report, SS – All Time COT extreme / The cot change signal is negative, Small Speculators extreme situation also… Could we see further decline in prices? Coffee COT Extreme / C, LS – 345 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is huge, close to all time levels. This is definitely a warning that prices may not be able to continue their rise for too long. Let’s get prepared for a drop in prices. Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 159, LS – 159 report COT extreme / We have reached a cot extreme level where the last two times prices bottomed out and we could see price rally develop afterwards. This is absolutely amongst the possible outcome of this current cot signal. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Cocoa COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 43%, SS – 28% / COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 18%, LS – 84% / The cot change signal is present: a large, bullish signal. Would have been nicer, if we could see it a bit earlier:) --> prices have already gone up significantly last week. Is there room for more rally? The longer term picture looks more bearish, so it may be a bit riskier to expect further rises… To be honest, I think it’s simply best, if we look towards other markets, where the signs are more clear. Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 150, LS – 158 report COT extreme / The extreme is relatively large (could be much larger) and at a level, where for the last two occasions, prices reacted to the signal. It is a bullish picture. Soybean Oil COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 127 report COT extreme / I find this market to be very interesting, because the cot report is bearish, although prices are low… If we look at a much longer chart, we can find much larger bearish cot extremes, so if prices start to go higher, there would be room for the extreme to get larger too, thus we could reach a top, where the extreme would seem normal. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Mexican Peso COT Change (52W) / C – 16%, LS – 14%, SS – 31% / COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 85%, LS – 15%, SS – 21% / The picture has become nice and bullish here in the Mexican Peso: we have a reasonably large change in Traders positions, giving us a bullish cot signal and also we are getting really close All Time extreme levels. Cotton COT Extreme / C – 411, LS – 396 report COT extreme / The extreme has become HUGE, we should be getting ready for another rally here! RBOB Gasoline COT Extreme / C – 64, LS – 211 report COT extreme / The bullish extreme signal suggests that we should see higher prices soon, but of course the dynamics of last week’s decline should make us cautious with entering the trade. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Palladium COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 56% / This was a large change is Traders positions, but hey (!), let’s not forget about the cot extreme situation that we were in a few weeks ago… the decline we are witnessing now is a consequence of that extreme. So what I’m trying to say is that we may see prices bounce back up, but the medium/longer term picture still looks bearish. Rough Rice COT Extreme / C – 1146 report, LS – All Time COT extreme / The extreme has grown larger, prices have started to rise a bit. USD Index COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / When we have such an extreme in a market, commercials and large specs holding positions that they have never held before, then I feel a little bit uncomfortable about what to say:) This picture is so very clear: we have a very large bearish cot signal that will – with high probability, nothing more – end the rally. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. New Zealand Dollar COT Change (52W) / C – 43%, LS – 43%, SS – 34% / COT Index (3yr.) / C – 82%, LS – 18%, SS – 27% / Both of our major cot signals this week are very bullish. The change in Traders positions was very large and with large movement, their positions have reached an extreme territory where we need to be cautious. If you look at the chart, you can see how well this currency reacted to these major extremes in the past. I’m expecting price to reach a bottom soon. Rough Rice COT Extreme / C – 1145 report, LS – All Time COT extreme / The extreme has grown larger, we’re still waiting for the rally:) Soybeans COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 415 report COT extreme / Incredibly large cot extreme in Soybeans… Looking at the chart, there is no question that we are expecting a bottom, but (!) be careful, they extreme is capable of widening even more, or we may even witness a commercial capitulation. There is little chance for that, but it’s always amongst the possibilities. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 25%, SS – 12% / Not much to say hear, since we’ve only got a change signal, no extreme. The change was large, so it may influence prices this week in a positive way (= pushing prices higher) Palladium COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / As you can see, last week we’ve witnessed a significant price decline, so it may be that prices have reached their top already. If so, we shouldn’t be surprised, knowing how extreme the market is. Of course it is also unnecessary to be disappointed if you haven’t entered the trade, in the long term there is still profit to me made on this decline. Question is: are we really over the top? This will be answered only is some weeks’ time, when stress levels change: if they further increase, we may see further strengthening of Palladium, if stress levels start to shrink, we should see the continuation of the decline. Rough Rice COT Extreme / C – 1144 report, LS – All Time COT extreme / What a beautiful extreme we have here:) Do I really need to write anything --> the charts tell it all:) For anyone new here, I’ll explain: the cot extreme is HUGE and if you look at the chart, RR usually reacted to these large cot extreme signals. I’m expecting prices to rally soon. All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Oats COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 26%, SS – 17% / The cot change signal is clear, indicating a possible drop in prices, while the cot extreme signal is not strong, although still more bearish than bullish. Palladium COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / The all time cot extreme is still present in Palladium, but if you remember what I said last week, this should not be a surprise. I’d recommend you analyze other metal markets also to get a picture of metals in general. We may see Palladium further strengthen, until we get similar bearish signals elsewhere. Let’s not forget about the existing correlation between these markets. Soybeans COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time, LS – 412 report COT extreme / The extreme in Soybeans is unquestionably large, but we don’t seem to see any reaction from price yet. Patience I say:), patience… All the best, Dunstan the original report COT charts

Hi gozila, In case of such currency pairs, I advise you to analyze both currency futures separately, in this case the EUR and the JPY, in order to determine which of these is stronger/weaker. All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Meal COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS – 23%, SS – 36% / Without having a significant extreme in the market, it’s only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in traders position was very large, so the signal is good, but it might be that we received it a bit late. Palladium COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / The all time extreme we can see in this markets is telling us: warning!! The fuel in this rally is running out. Well yes, it is, but let’s not forget about the fact that all time extremes can be present in a market for many weeks or even months before any change happens in the trend. Coffee COT Extreme / C – 337, LS – 338 report COT extreme / We are seeing a huge extreme in Coffee that is indicating a price fall. Will it happen in the near future or only in a matter of weeks, months… well it is hard to tell. We can see that a few months ago, the level of extreme was similar, prices fell a bit, but now they are once again rising. If this rally continues, we should see the widening of the extreme. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Palladium COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% / COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Both of our major cot signals this week are producing strong bearish signals. The change was quite large besides having all time extreme both in Commercials and Large specs positions. The question may be: should we start shorting the market? Well that’s up to your system to decide, but keep in mind, that these all time cot extreme are capable of being present in a market for some time before any price reaction. Natural Gas COT Extreme / C – 37, LS – 141 report COT extreme / The extreme has become large again, has a reached a level where we can start considering a trade. It would be nicer if SS were also in a align with LS and C, but nevertheless, we have a supporting cot report for thinking long. Euro COT Extreme / C – 107, LS – 106 report, SS – All Time COT extreme / We’ve got a considerable extreme in C and LS and an unquestionable large extreme in SS. It is of course a bullish picture, but again, I need to repeat what I just said in my analysis on Palladium: these extremes can stay for long, widen even more before any change in the trend. Still, it’s good to know that we have such stresses in the Euro, cause we can start thinking of a possible long trades. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Mexican Peso COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 26%, SS – 10% / The only clear signal we have in mxp right now is the cot change signal, which is bullish. After the relative bearish extreme we had, we are moving fast towards another bullish extreme. Dow Jones-30 COT Extreme / C – 212, LS – 359 report COT extreme / The bullish cot extreme we’ve got here suggest that prices will continue the rally… We will see. Cotton COT Extreme / C – 95, LS – 91 report COT extreme / The picture is pretty obvious: judging by the past reactions of cotton after such extremes, we should expect the downtrend to end soon. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Heating Oil COT Change (52W) / C – 15%, LS – 13%, SS – 18% / The largest change in Commercials positions was in Heating Oil this week, so we definitely have a cot signal that we can act on. Of course examining the chart closer, we can see that two weeks ago we had an even greater change that most probably already influenced prices and that is why we see rising prices. You may ask logically if this is gonna continue? Well the extreme situation in the market also supports further rises in Heating Oil I believe. Euro COT Change (52W) / C – 14%, LS – 16% / COT Extreme / C –99, LS – 86, SS – 110 report COT extreme / The change signal and the extreme we have in Euro both point upwards… If you look at small specs, you can find them as pessimistic about the market as they were back in mid 2012 when we Euro reached an important bottom. Prices may of course continue their fall, but I don’t think it would last too long… Soybeans COT Extreme / C – 430, LS – 406 report, SS – All Time COT extreme / Do I really need to say anything here? The pictures says it all!! (unquestionable large cot buy signal) I’ll be out for a summer holiday during the next two reports, so sorry in advance for not posting. I’ll be back for the 32nd cot report this year. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. RBOB Gasoline COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 28%, SS – 22% / The change in Traders positions was significant, we can talk about a cot change signal. It is bullish and looking at the last one year, we can see that in the majority of cases, these signals could effectively be used. Soybeans COT Extreme / C – 429, LS – 226 report, SS – All Time COT extreme / The cot extreme is becoming larger and larger. It is of course extremely difficult to tell, when the decline will end, but it is pretty clear that stresses in this market will soon burst and eventually create a bottom. Silver COT Extreme / C – 196, LS – 198 report COT extreme / Not too long ago we were talking about a bullish cot extreme, but as you can see, things can change pretty fast in the market  we are now seeing a bearish extreme. This is a warning for those of you, who took the bullish signal earlier and built up a long position. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Heating Oil COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS – 22%, SS – 30% / Having no extreme in the market, it is only the cot change signal that we can act on. The change in Traders positions was significant, much larger than usual. It is a bullish signal that may influence prices in the near future. Analyzing the effectiveness of cot change signals in heating oil, we can come to the conclusion that the signals are pretty effective. Platinum COT Extreme / C – 71 report, LS – All Time COT extreme / There is an unquestionably large cot extreme in the market (LS have never been so optimistic about the market as they are today). It would be nicer if SS were as extreme, but never the less, it is still something to talk about! Ohh, if anyone is unsure, we are talking about a bearish cot signal here:) As always, my warning: all time cot extremes can be present in a market for even months before price reaction, so be careful, pleeeease! Soybeans COT Extreme / C – 405, LS – 225 report, SS – All Time COT extreme / What a beautiful picture we have in Soybeans!! All major participants of the market hold extremely large net positions… (bullish cot extreme signal) If you look at the charts for all soybeans market, you’ll see how well they react to cot extreme signals, so I’m personally really excited now! All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS – 28%, SS – 31% / Let’s see, what do we have here… Cot extreme: we had a bullish cot extreme in the last couple of weeks, so rising prices is not surprising. The change in Traders positions this week was larger than average and a bearish signal, so we may consider a cautious trade downwards. Orange Juice COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS – 27% / Looking at the chart it seems that cot changes were pretty effective in Orange Juice in the past years… The bullish cot change signal seems to be a good signal that we can act on. British Pound COT Extreme / C – 361, LS – 342 report COT extreme / Prices have not yet reached their top, but as they go higher and higher, the cot extreme is becoming larger too… We may need to be a bit more patient, but I’m pretty confident that eventually prices will react to this large cot signal. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. USD Index COT Change (52W) / C – 48%, LS – 51% / The change in USD Index was HUGE (!), but not unseen… Large Speculators are long again (above 20.000 contracts net long), but the signal is still a bearish one. The last major cot extreme was a few months ago and it was a bullish signal. I don’t believe that in the medium/long term we need to expect any serious price declines. Crude Oil COT Extreme / C,LS – All Time COT extreme / The All Time extreme we have in Crude Oil now suggests that prices will not be able to rally further for too long… of course the all time extreme can be in the market for a few weeks or even months before any real change in the trend. British Pound COT Extreme / C – 359, LS – 340 report COT extreme / The cot extreme in GBP is considerable and I’m expecting prices to reach a top soon. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Rough Rice COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 26% / COT Index (3 yr.) / C – 77%, LS – 37%, SS – 2% / We had a pretty large change in Commercials and also in Large Speculators positions (looking at the last one year history, the change size was in the top 10%). It seems as if the signal came a bit late, since last week Thursday and Friday prices have rallied. Since the cot extreme situation is still bullish, I’d say that the chances of further rallying prices is larger. Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C – 59, LS – 57, SS - 59 report COT extreme / Not much change since last week: relatively we may talk about an extreme, but there is still reasonable space left for Traders to become even more extreme about the market. The cot report does not really give us an edge this time. Soybeans COT Extreme / C – 43, LS – 42, SS - 217 report COT extreme / The extreme is becoming really significant in soybeans (bullish picture). Commercials and Large Speculators have still got room for further positions, but in case of Small Speculators, they have reached All Time (close to it) extreme levels. I think prices can still decline for a while, but I’d be surprised if this decline continued for many weeks… All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Japanese Yen COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS – 17%, SS - 37 / The larger change suggests that prices may rally in the next few days and since the last major cot extreme is also a bullish signal, the longer term picture also looks brighter for the Japanese yen. Silver COT Extreme / C – 43, LS - 581 report COT extreme / Large Speculators have reached an extreme that we haven’t seen since 2003! It is an unquestionable bullish signal and luckily at a level where the Risk/Reward of the trade seems pretty decent! Australian Dollar COT Extreme / C – 56, LS - 56 report COT extreme / We may talk about a relative bearish cot extreme, not more… of course as the last example shows, such extremes may also influence prices, but looking at the chart, there is no question that there could be much greater extremes ahead of us. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS –22% / The larger than average cot change may cause a little decline, but the I’d say it is the extreme that causes me to think: the rally isn’t over yet! Mexican Peso COT Extreme / C – 51, LS - 51 report COT extreme / The bullish cot extreme in the beginning of this year has stopped the decline in prices. There is plenty of space for Traders to build up larger positions --> the rally should continue. Euro COT Extreme / C – 44, LS - 43 report COT extreme / Until we reach a significant bearish cot extreme I would say that prices can go higher. I would expect the trend to change when LS reach 100.000 contracts (or above) net long, C reach 100.000 contracts net short (or below) net short. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS –38% / The cot change IS large (bullish cot signal) and we have no bearish cot extreme, on the contrary, in some of the indexes, we are seeing more of a bullish extreme! Conclusion: although cot analysis may not be the most effective in indexes, analyzing the report, I think the rally is not over. Japanese Yen COT Change (52W) / C – 18%, LS – 12%, SS – 35% / The 18% in Commercials and the 12% in Large Specs (changes) wouldn’t be in my opinion something to talk about, but the 35% in Small Specs is a significant change. It is of course a bearish cot signal, so I’m expecting a bit of a decline in the near term. The cot data on the wider time horizon says that prices can continue their rise, at least the last major cot extreme signal was bullish (at the end of last year). It is still in place, until prices go below the last bottom, which would result in a widening cot extreme. Platinum COT Extreme / C – 64, LS - 64 report COT extreme / The bearish extreme is widening, while prices are rallying. I think there is still some time left, before we reach the next top, and it would be nice to see small speculators reaching an extreme also (above 6000 contracts net long). All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Euro COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS –22% / The last major cot extreme that we has in Euro was the bullish all time cot extreme back in 2012. I believe that it is still in effect and prices are more likely to continue their rise for now. The cot change signal also signals rising prices. Dow Jones-30 COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 27%, SS – 22% / COT Index (3yr.) / C – 75%, LS – 40%, SS – 0% / It is pretty interesting to see such a cot report at these price levels: we are closer to bullish cot extreme levels than bearish levels!! Ok, the cot change signal is bearish this week, but we know that if it will affect prices, only in the near term. The general picture, at least the one that is painted by the cot report, suggests that prices can rally even further! Wheat COT Extreme / LS - 77 report COT extreme / It seems that my feeling last week was good: we may have reached a top in Wheat. The cot extreme is large enough already, so the chances are a bit larger for declining prices. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. S&P-500 COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS –17% / It looks like the rally can continue… The bullish cot change signals accompanied by no real bearish cot extremes paint the picture bullish in indexes. RBOB Gasoline COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS –25% / The bullish cot change signal we have in Gasoline may be able to take prices a bit higher in the short term, but if we look at the cot extreme situation, you will see that the chances of further declining prices (after the last two weeks) are higher. Wheat COT Extreme / C – 76, LS - 76 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is getting larger and larger week by week. I do not think that the rally can continue for too long anymore, I’m expecting prices to reach a top soon. All the best, Dunstan the original COT report COT charts