Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Feeder Cattle COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 22%, SS – 8% / The trend in FC is still bearish. We have had a bit of a rise in prices in recent weeks after the cot report was showing a bullish cot extreme, but now we have this large cot change signal that support price actions in the direction of the main trend. S&P-500 COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Last week it was only S&P-400, but now we have S&P-500 following. This just further supports the fact that stress levels in indexes are rising rapidly. British Pound COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / The all time cot extreme is still present, stress levels are rising. As I have said it last week, this picture may stay the same for many weeks or even months before we see a reaction in price. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, Sorry for being away for so long… I’m back again:) The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Crude Oil COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 23%, SS – 47% / Having a more or less neutral cot extreme picture in the market it is only the change signal (which is bearish) that we can act on if have to. Although it is large and visible, I would only take it into consideration if besides cot analysis my view would be bearish. S&P-400 COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture is very clear and obvious, but in case of indexes, the “correlation factor” should not be neglected. It is very important to have a look at other markets as well, such as Nasdaq, Dow and the S&P-500. British Pound COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Another all time cot extreme signal, now in a currency. Currencies react well to cot signals, so we can expect the GBP to move higher on this bullish signal, but (!) don’t forget that these all time cot extreme can be in the market for many weeks before anything happens. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Crude Oil COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 37%, SS – 53% / Both of our main cot signals are bearish. We have a huge cot change signal (largest in the past 52 weeks) and we have reached a significant cot extreme level also. Of course caution is advised, these extremes can become much larger, but nevertheless, we have a bearish picture from the report. Sugar COT Extreme / C – 435 report, LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal. Lumber COT Extreme / C – 164, LS – 166 report COT extreme / Not an all time cot extreme like in Sugar, but still significant showing us that the rally may be over soon… All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Mexican Peso COT Change (52W) / C – 36%, LS – 36%, SS – 21% / We have a change in Traders positions that is much larger than average and it is a bearish cot signal. Prices have gone down last week Thursday, so the signal may be a little late for us. The cot extreme is relatively bearish and as you can see on the chart, when it reached these levels the last two times, prices went further down. The longer term picture of course is definitely bullish, we are far away from All Time or close to AT bearish cot extreme leves. Silver COT Extreme / C – 541, LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal. Japanese Yen COT Extreme / C – 421, LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bearish signal. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Lumber COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 32%, SS – 23% / The cot change signal indicates that prices can fall on the near future, but a cot extreme is still bullish. Wheat (Chicago) COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bullish signal. Soybean Meal COT Extreme / C – 576, LS – All Time COT extreme / The picture is very clear: all time cot extreme, HUGE bullish signal. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi Kuokam, Sorry for replying so late... What I meant was that the cot extreme is relatively large in the market. It doesn't matter if net positions are close to 0... what matters is how it stands in the history. In cotton we can see that net positions for LS and C mean bullish extremes. All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Platinum COT Change (52W) / C – 45%, LS – 41%, SS – 19% / It looks as if prices started to react to bullish cot extreme signal that has been present in the market for some time now. We should not be surprised to see such a larger change in Traders positions. It may influence prices and push them back in the near term, but let’s not forget that the stronger cot signal is the extreme! Wheat (Kansas) COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / When we reach and all time cot extreme in a market, there is not too much I can add, the picture is pretty obvious. The only important note I may add is that these extremes can go on for many weeks before price starts to react! Cotton COT Extreme / C – 52, LS – 52 report COT extreme / We have a relative bullish cot extreme in the market, but caution is advised: with even greater extremes (second half of 2014 for example) the market may still head downwards. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. New Zealand Dollar COT Change (52W) / C – 17%, LS – 15%, SS – 24% / The last major cot extreme signal was bullish and it is still in place. The larger cot change signal present is also bullish. Copper COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / The extreme has widened further since last week. Much has not changed, so we can still state that the picture is very bullish. This of course does not mean that we should jump right in the market, these extremes can exist for many weeks or even months before any price reaction. Soybean Meal COT Extreme / C – 213, LS – 571 report COT extreme / With the exception of Small Specs, who were net short, the picture is very similar to what we had back in 2011. Nevertheless the signal is huge, very bullish. I very much like this market!! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Cocoa COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 33%, SS – 17% / Both of our main cot signals are bullish. The change was much larger than average, but the extreme is also relatively large. Although prices may continue their decline (the extreme can widen further), a bit of an upwards price reaction could be in place. Copper COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Large Speculators have never held such large short positions in the past, we do have an all time cot extreme situation, a very large bullish signal. As it is clearly visible on the chart, even if these signals were unable to change the Trend drastically, they did stop the decline temporarily. Palladium COT Extreme / C – 188, LS – 187 report COT extreme / The picture is very similar to what we can see in copper. The cot extreme is huge! Here we can also find Small Specs being very pessimistic about the market and as you can see on the chart, that always signaled the end for a decline. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Platinum COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 43%, SS – 21% / Large bullish cot change signal combined with a bullish extreme = Very positive for the market! Wheat (Kansas) COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / All Time cot extreme /bullish/ --> says it all: We should expect prices to bottom soon, and start rallying. Caution of course is advised (!) --> the extreme can grow larger, while prices head downwards, so we may need to wait a few more weeks. Keep your eyes open! Coffee COT Extreme / C – 104, LS – 104 report COT extreme / I think the chart gives us a clear picture: Prices are ready to RALLY!! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. RBOB Gasoline COT Change (52W) / C – 26%, LS – 6%, SS – 53% / The cot change signal is bearish, could push prices lower the next few days. The larger picture: Small Specs were heavily pessimistic last week, I’d say that is a strong bullish signal. Because of the support levels not far, it may be a good risk/reward trade. Sugar COT Extreme / C – 104, LS - 75, SS – 105 report COT extreme / Heavily bearish sign from the cot report. Prices were unable to sustain the gains of early last week, this supports the bearish picture. Platinum COT Extreme / C – 39, LS – 59 report COT extreme / In the past year, we had a rather bullish picture presented in the cot report, but prices continued their decline. The extreme we have at the moment is far away from being able to influence the market, so the decline can easily continue. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Euro COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 26%, SS – 27% / Bullish cot change signal coming after a rebound in the recent rally. Let’s not forget that the rally was signaled well earlier by the bullish cot extreme in the market. It is still in place / at least we do not have a serious bearish cot extreme signal yet. Silver COT Extreme / C – 380, LS – 515 report COT extreme / I’m keeping it short: Bearish cot extreme. Sugar COT Extreme / C – 74, LS - 68, SS – 102 report COT extreme / Time for selling / exiting longs… at least that is what the recent cot report suggests. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Mexican Peso COT Change (52W) / C – 39%, LS – 40%, SS – 13% / We have a bearish cot change signal, but at the same time we are not that far away from a bullish extreme. We could assume a drop in prices in the near future, but on a larger time horizon, to me the picture is bullish. Lumber COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme / Well, what can I say… If you were following this thread last week, you shouldn’t be surprised to see Lumber rallying. Feeder Cattle COT Extreme / LS - 116, SS – 116 report COT extreme / From last week’s price movements in FC, it seems that the relative bullish cot extreme has taken its effect. We may as well be prepared for further increases coming. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Sugar COT Change (52W) / C – 38%, LS – 33%, SS – 31% / We have a larger cot change then average, but hey (!), look at the larger picture: we are not far off from a huge bullish cot extreme. Prices are just simply reacting to that. It’s possible to see a bit of a decline in the next few days, a bit of a rebound, but I’d focus on the larger picture. Lumber COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / I LOVE THESE SCENARIOS! Do I need to say anything here?! Come on… It is soooo obvious:) Feeder Cattle COT Extreme / LS - 115, SS – 114 report COT extreme / Large bullish cot extreme in the market suggesting higher prices coming. Caution for two reasons: Extreme has plenty of space to widen + dynamic decline present. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Mexican Peso COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 43% / Generally speaking, the picture looks bullish, but we have got a bearish cot change signal and it seems that price were unable to stop declining even though we has a major cot extreme signal. We may need to wait a few more weeks and possibly a clearer cot signal. Live Cattle COT Extreme / C - 311, LS – 799 report COT extreme / We have a close to all time cot extreme in this market, yet prices are dynamically falling. This set up is always hard, but nevertheless it seems to be good trade! We may just need to be more patient. Coffee COT Extreme / C - 96, LS – 96 report COT extreme / Last week we saw a strong Thursday and Friday… are we over the bottom? Stay tuned, this market has great potential! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Sugar COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS – 39%, SS – 25% / The cot change signal suggests a decline will happen, but the bigger picture shows us that we have just reached a bullish cot extreme not long ago. Looking at the past few months, it may easily happen again that prices start to continue their decline while the cot extreme further widens. Live Cattle COT Extreme / C, LS – 126 report COT extreme / Not much has changed since last week, the extreme became larger, prices could not gain momentum yet. We need to be patient. Coffee COT Extreme / C - 92, LS – 92 report COT extreme / We are once again getting close to all time (bullish) cot extreme levels, so start getting prepared for higher prices. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. British Pound COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 20%, SS – 43% / The cot change signal is bullish, the last major cot extreme signal was also bullish, yet last two week’s price movement calls for some caution. I think we may see a bit of a rise early off this week, but it’s hard to tell if that will continue afterwards or would be see prices falling again. If prices do fall, I’m expecting the cot extreme to widen again towards bullish extremes. Live Cattle COT Extreme / C, LS – 122 report COT extreme / We haven’t had such a bullish extreme since 122 reports ago (= about 2 years). Now that is a considerable extreme. But (!), it may also be seen on the chart, that Traders can increase these positions further, so we may need to patient before entering long. Soybean Oil COT Extreme / C - 58, LS – 57 report COT extreme / We do not have such a clear bullish extreme as in LC, but it is visible enough that the picture is becoming bullish week by week. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, (Back from my summer vacation:) ) The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Japanese Yen COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 44%, SS – 46% / Bearish cot change signals accompanied by a relative bearish cot extreme. Small speculators are becoming more and more optimistic about a rally, which adds to the bearishness level. On the other hand we’ve got the fundamentals, so I’d be cautious now with a short trade. Oats COT Extreme / LS – 272 report COT extreme / Widening cot extreme with bit of a rise last week. The picture is still positive! Palladium COT Extreme / C - 160, LS – 160 report COT extreme / Similarly to JPY, I think we have to be cautious with the signal now, because of the “situation” we have, but nevertheless, the bullish picture is unquestionable and we should be ready when the opportunity arises. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Orange Juice COT Change (52W) / C – 19%, LS – 12%, SS – 44% / Yeah, we have a bearish cot change signal, but hey (!) we just had a bullish cot extreme --> yes, prices may decline in the short term, but I think prices are headed up in the long term. Oats COT Extreme / C - 334, LS – 269 report COT extreme / Although prices were unable to go much higher last week, momentum is still in place. With widened extreme in the cot report, chances of further increases have gone higher. Palladium COT Extreme / C - 156, LS – 156 report COT extreme / Huge bullish cot extreme (that can easily grow further!!) --> Commercials, Large Speculators getting closer to net0 positions, Small specs bearish. Last two times when this was the case (2011, 2012) we got bottoms. Having great support levels not far, we may be in for a good risk/reward trade! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybean Oil COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS – 23%, SS – 41% / A few weeks ago we were at a pretty large bearish extreme, now prices are down again. This week’s cot data show larger changes in Traders positions (bullish cot change signal) + relative bullish extreme (based on a 1-yr time range). I could argue in any direction: on the bearish side we can say that the close to all time extreme we had a few weeks ago is still in place… on the bullish side: prices at such support levels, the relative bullish extreme and cot change signal present should be viewed. Not an easy picture, that’s for sure:) Mexican Peso COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / No change from last week from cot analysis perspective / Friday’s strength maybe signaling the end of the decline? Oats COT Extreme / C - 333, LS – 268 report COT extreme / With widening extreme, prices gone higher last week --> keep watching All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Sugar COT Change (52W) / C – 54%, LS – 44%, SS – 36% / After last week’s bearish cot change signal, now we can see an even greater bullish one. Prices have gone further down as it was expected, although not breaching the support level of the last major bottom --> bullish cot extreme signal is still in place. Now of course the chances are pretty high that we will see Traders changing their positions in the same manner as last week, thus pushing prices even lower / their positions to bullish extreme levels. Mexican Peso COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / No change from last week. Oats COT Extreme / C - 332, LS – 267 report COT extreme / We have a huge bullish extreme in Oats, so definitely keep watching this market for trading opportunities! All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Sugar COT Change (52W) / C – 41%, LS – 28%, SS – 38% / The bearish cot change signal came a bit late, but looking at that chart patterns, it may have launched another down leg in prices. Although not long ago, we had the bullish cot extreme – giving prices a little momentum – we can witness what happened the last couple of times, when we had such a scenario. Ok, now you might say: “Hey D, that wasn’t oo helpful… tell me, what to do then?” …well I think until a cot extreme signal is breached, we should stick to it: until we see a lower bottom, the signal is in place and we have a good chance to see the rally develop further. New Zealand Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / I could only repeat myself… patience. Mexican Peso COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / I could only repeat myself… patience. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Heating Oil COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS – 15%, SS – 37% / Bullish cot change signal: possible rise in prices this week. COT extreme: not that long ago we had a bullish extreme, prices reacted, but the rally was short living and we are once again seeing dropping prices. Until we breach 2015’s lows, I’d say that we’ve still some change to see rising prices. New Zealand Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Last week we saw a bit of a rise… does it confirm the end of the decline? Volume and OI analysis does not support… Mexican Peso COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Not much to say here either: all time cot extreme, huge bullish signal, but as NZD shows, we may need to wait a “little” to see higher prices. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out. Soybeans COT Change (52W) / C – 52%, LS – 54%, SS – 14% / By having such a large bearish cot change signal, one might think that we are in for a huge drop in prices… well lower prices in the next few days is highly possible, but let’s look at the bigger picture. You can see that the market is moving away from bullish extreme levels. These levels are not far yet and there is plenty of space in the opposite direction --> The rally can continue in the long run. Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C – 50%, LS – 42%, SS – 39 / COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / All major cot signals are pointing heavily downwards, not much that I can add here:) New Zealand Dollar COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme / Patience. That’s what we need now… The picture is crystal clear, we’ve never witnessed such a bullish cot extreme in New Zealand Dollar in the past, we are expecting this to have an effect on prices. When? Maybe now, maybe only after a few months. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts

Hi everyone, COTbase did not post a new review, but anyhow, I’ll still update for you! Nasdaq-100 COT Change (52W) / C – 81%, LS – 71% / Bearish cot change signal that was large enough to push the market to a cot extreme that is considerable. This means that all our major cot signals have become red, but of course caution is advised, indexes – in my opinion – do not react to cot signals as well as other markets do. Palladium COT Extreme / C, LS – 133 report COT extreme / The cot extreme is becoming larger, we can talk about a relative extreme, bullish of course. In case of SS, they are at a much larger extreme, pessimistic about the market which of course is great news for buyers! Corn COT Extreme / C – 71, LS – 73 report COT extreme / We can see a widening extreme as prices go lower. Has the time come to buy again? Well there could be much greater extremes, but as the las bottom shows, a relative cot extreme of this strength is already capable of influencing prices. All the best, Dunstan COT Charts