Dunstan

Hi everyone, Sorry for the seemingly late update, but the recent cot report was issued Monday night…The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzM9NMKkIJk&feature=g-high]here[/ame]). Russel-2000 COT Change (52W) / C-30%, LS25%, SS-42% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-37%, LS-72% / The large changes in positions are indicating a bullish move in prices, but let’s not forget about the cot extreme that we saw not long ago. Soybean Oil COT Extreme / LS-All Time extreme / The extreme is still present and we can witness prices climbing higher this week. Japanese Yen COT Extreme / SS-All Time extreme / The COT extreme is growing, stress levels are getting higher --> the picture is getting more and more bullish! I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H7VzYLaAYBU&feature=g-high-u]here[/ame]). 30-Year Bond COT Change (52W) / C-33%, LS-37%, SS-16% / COT Index (5 year lb.) / C-25%, LS-77% / The COT change in Commercials put 30-Year Bond on top of the list. It may look like a strong signal, but I can’t find too many supporting examples in the past. On the other hand, the extreme that we can see (the COT Index shows us clearly --> I have indicated on the chart) and also the close resistance level (as stated in the review) giving a potentially good risk/reward are factors that are supporting a short trade. Soybean Oil COT Extreme / C-All Time extreme, LS-405 report extreme / It’s unnecessary to write too much here, since the attached chart shows everything. The extreme is clearly visible. Sugar COT Extreme / C-269 report extreme, LS-267 report extreme / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-100%, LS-0%, SS-8% / We can see bottoms in the price of sugar, whenever Commercials where at such levels, so similarly to other soft markets, the picture is bullish. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MGyy4x3rgAQ&feature=plcp]here[/ame]). Cotton COT Change (52W) / C-39%, LS-31%, SS-21% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-92%, LS-7% / In the last two month we can see that all major participants in this market are changing their net positions pretty rapidly. The latest report shows that Commercials have gone from net short level of 5000 contracts to net long 10-11 thousand contracts and of course this meant that Large Speculators have turned net short. If we look at the near term picture, this change size in positions could easily signal a bottom in prices and we could witness higher prices in a few days. The long term picture is also bullish, if we look at the 10 year chart for example. We can see that whenever Commercials where net long, prices bottomed. As they started to exit their long positions and increased their short positions, prices started to rally. Lumber COT Change (52W) / C-21%, LS-14%, SS-34% / COT Extreme / SS-354 report extreme / COT Index (3 year lb.) / SS-100% / I have indicated on the chart the place and time, when Small Speculators where at such levels. Commercials and Large Speculators could still become more extreme so higher prices are still possible, but stress levels are definitely building up. Japanese Yen COT Extreme /SS-All Time/ COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-89%, LS-22%, SS-0% / The COT extreme is visible, and as the past examples indicate, we are in for a rally. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPSwssMDbvM&feature=plcp]here[/ame]). Cotton COT Change (52W) / C-24%, LS-17%, SS-18% / It looks like cotton is still on the “radar”. It is important to see the wider picture, the extreme in the market which still indicating a bullish picture. The risk/reward of such a trade could also be favorable now if you look at the chart. Copper COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-31%, SS-12% / Large speculators have turned net short. Although the change signal is a bullish one, looking at all metal markets, the cot extreme that we could witness everywhere for the past couple of weeks suggest that the decline will continue. Japanese Yen COT Extreme /SS-All Time/ COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-84%, LS-24%, SS-0% / last week’s comment: Whenever we have witnessed such changes in C-LS-SS positions in the past, they usually ended in a COT extreme that resulted in a bottom in prices. We still got some space left for this trend to continue and really get a COT extreme picture, so prices could continue their decline. We are getting close /or in case if Small Speculators, we are already there/ the extreme that – as the past examples show- should signal a relative bottom in prices. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi michael45, I’m very glad that you enjoy my thread! The charts that I post here are from the service I’m subscribed to, COTbase.com. All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HN2qR-Vecjo&feature=g-high-u]here[/ame]). Cotton COT Change (52W) / C-55%, LS-43%, SS-32% / It looks like I have to mention cotton again, because of the huge change size that happened! This time we can witness a 55% size change in Commercials positions. As the review says, this last two report’s changes pushed Commercials from long 20.000 contracts to short 20.000 contracts. Of course as we know by now, these changes could affect prices in the near term, but the longer term picture is still bullish. If we look at the 10 year chart we can see what happened to prices in the past when Commercials started to decrease their net long positions and go into deep short territories. Japanese Yen COT Change (52W) / C-27%, LS-22%, SS-38% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-69%, LS-39%, SS-11% / Whenever we have witnessed such changes in C-LS-SS positions in the past, they usually ended in a COT extreme that resulted in a bottom in prices. We still got some space left for this trend to continue and really get a COT extreme picture, so prices could continue their decline. Platinum After a couple of weeks of continuous All Time signals, market participants in Platinum have moved away from their extremes. As we can see it now, it was wise to follow this market, because it turned out to be again a valid example of how affective COT analysis really is. Looking at the past similar cases, we can expect prices to continue their decline. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Dear steve46, Thank you for sharing us your view on the report. I would be very much interested, whether you have read through the whole thread or you have just looked at the latest couple of posts… I have tried to show many examples how to use the report and I believe that COT analysis does give you an edge in trading. Of course it is best to combine it with traditional TA and use it together with other tools for exact entries and exits. It could be used effectively as a confirmation tool in your system or it could help you find trading opportunities that otherwise you wouldn’t know of. It is true that for short term traders it is not the best, because you get the report on Fridays showing you a Tuesday’s picture. But if you are a swingtrader and you are willing to hold positions for weeks or even months than I believe that you should be looking at the report. You brought S&P as an example, which is surprising, because I have not mentioned it in the last post. Actually I have talked about Nasdaq in early September (post #32) where I have indicated the extreme in the market which was a bearish signal and turned out to be again a correct one. Honestly, I use COT analysis less in indexes, I believe it is more efficient in other markets (grains, currencies for example). Since COT data is not derived from price, I believe it is a more solid indicator than other usual technical indicators. It really measures the stress levels in the market. If you look at one of my recent calls, platinum for example, and the price reaction this week, you can see what I’m talking about… Without repeating my earlier examples – hoping that you will spend some minutes to read through the first couple of posts – I would like to ask you to stick around for a few month and see for yourself how useful this tool really is. Of course if you trade only S&P and intraday, you might not find these signals useful, but I’m 100% sure that in this case you are missing some really valuable trading opportunities in other markets. I’ve been trading for 12 years now and I have traded for living for over 4 years out of it. Since I have invested the majority of my trading account a year ago in a more traditional business, I cannot say that I am trading these days as heavily as I used to, but I do trade regularly and I focus my attention on the report. As I have said it before, I use other TA tools for exact entries, exits and I have my own risk and money management rules. In this thread I wish not to talk about anything other than the report and focus everyone’s attention each week on the most significant signals that the report shows us. All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, (sorry for the late update, I was away for a couple of days…) The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-rYFiRGOM0g&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]). Cotton COT Change (52W) / C-25%, LS-17%, SS-25% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-88%, LS-10% / The 25% change in Commercials positions could be considered a stronger than average signal and as we can see it by now (Wednesday) prices have declined on it. On the other hand, the wider picture shows an extreme in the market pointing in the opposite direction, upwards. Heating Oil COT Change (52W) / C-20%, LS-25% / COT Extreme /SS-692report/ COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-5%, LS-79%, SS-100% / A great example of multiple COT signals --> COT change and the extreme are bearish signals. From all the signals this week, I would consider this one to be the best opportunity trade (close resistance level, great Risk/Reward trade). Platinum COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-All Time / We can see the prices have started to drop heavily, so anyone following these signals could have made some serious profits by now. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8ibpcyTYbBI&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]). Dow Jones-30 Vol/OI Total Score /-15/ COT Change (52W) / C-26%, LS-22%, SS-33% / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-22%, LS-79% / Although the Change signal was large and we can see some examples in the past, when prices reacted to it, what is concerning for me on the long side is the volume & open interest score and the COT extreme picture. Both of these are showing a bearish picture. Australian Dollar COT Change (52W) / C-19%, LS-17%, SS-25 / Another example, when the change signal is pointing in the opposite direction as the general picture. Two weeks ago there was a close to All Time extreme COT picture that was a strong sell signal and started to push prices lower. Last week’s COT change signal could stop that decline and even redirect prices to higher levels. It could easily be, that prices continue their rise for a few days, but the fact the LS are heavily exiting their net long positions is a warning signal. Platinum COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-All Time / The picture has not changed, we could witness another All Time COT extreme this week. Stress levels are super high and this suggest a price decline soon. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zZAALHaNmFk&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]). Natural Gas COT Change (52W) / C-31%, LS-32%, SS-13% / COT Extreme / C-230, LS-255 / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-0%, LS-100%, SS-69% / The near term picture looks bearish, since the more than 30% changes that we can witness in C and LS positions are stronger than average signals. In medium to longer term (let’s say up to 6-9 month), I don’t see such an extreme picture yet, that would suggest the end of this increase in prices that started in mid April. Cotton COT Change (52W) / C-31%, LS-30% / COT Extreme / C-281, LS-281 / COT Index (3 year lb.) / C-100%, LS-0% / The COT report suggests that there could be an increase in cotton prices in the near term and even in medium-long term as well. Platinum COT Extreme / C-All Time, LS-All Time / Gold COT Extreme / SS-All Time / I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2iQnRsGmuSg&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]). Cotton COT Change / C-27%, LS-20%, SS-25% / COT Index / C-88%, LS-10% / The COT report suggests that there could be an increase in cotton prices in the near term and even in medium-long term as well. Crude Oil The change signal suggests a bullish move, but the general picture looks bearish. British Pound Small Speculators are at an All Time extreme level (their most optimistic mood ever), but also Commercials are heavily selling the market--> bearish picture. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5So2amDeYKM&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]). USD Index Very large Change in positions of C and LS --> 58% and 62%. This signal together with the COT extreme picture (see attached chart) suggests a bullish move in prices. Coffee The COT change signal that we had here points in the opposite direction as what the COT extreme picture suggests, but of course we should know by now that while a change signal has a faster effect on prices – if at all – extremes give you a better understanding on the wider picture. In this case Commercials being net long – as the review says correctly – is a bullish signal. If you look at the COT index, we can see that it confirms this --> C at 87% and L at 14%. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, Just wanted to update you on metals, which I have analyzed for you in my last post. It looks like prices have started to decline, so it could be that my assumption on the general bearish picture in metals was correct. As the examples brought to you, showed clearly that we are not at all time extreme levels everywhere, there where relative extremes, which in the past had the strength to effect prices. It’s not an easy play, but I guess the Risk/Reward of taking the recent report’s signals was(is?) pretty good. All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7u5LrUGJjZo&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]) Copper The size of change in C and LS positions was HUGE (!): 41% & 42%, but it was in a direction away from the recent extreme levels. This pushed market participant’s positions towards a more neutral zone. The hard question here to decide is whether to act on the large COT change signal and exit longs or even go short, when LS – the ones who we like to follow – are buying the market and actually just turned net long. Well, the change was definitely significant, so it should be considered a meaningful signal --> we should be careful in further buying the market, but on the other hand, we know that metals tend to correlate with each other. Let’s have a look at all the metal markets to see – by looking at the COT report – which ones are stronger and which one are weaker compared to each other: Gold SS signals in gold are usually pretty accurate, so the fact that they are at COT Index 96% is an exciting situation. I have indicated on the chart previous cases, when SS were at such levels to see what happened to price back then. Silver Although we cannot talk about an All-time or close to all time extreme picture, you can see on the attached chart, that in case of the last two relative tops in the market, market participants where at such levels. Platinum LS and C are at COT All-Time extreme levels, but SS are not at such levels yet. The picture is still more bearish than bullish. Palladium The COT Index shows us that neither participant is in their extreme zone. The Volume&OI score is the largest here. I would consider this market to be the strongest amongst metals. Even though, we do not have a super clear picture (I would say all-time or close to all-time extreme levels amongst all market participants and all metal markets), overall, I think that we are becoming more bearish in metals day-by-day. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fP6Ceeqh6Gk&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]) Silver The size of change was again larger than average. Market participants have started to move towards their bearish extreme levels, although we are definitely further away from these levels than for example in Platinum. Platinum Large Speculators have reached an all-time net long position, which is an extreme COT signal, but as said in the review, the picture is not the same as in the previous two cases. The volume and open interest total score being 16 is a bullish signal and the fact that other metal markets are not at their COT extreme levels yet, suggests that the rally could continue, but we should be at the lookout for a possible down-turn. Cocoa The reason why it has been mentioned is the size of change that happened in Commercials’ positions, but what is interesting here is that Small Speculators are near extreme levels (COT Index 97%). The picture is becoming bearish. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts --> here

Hi, I’ve just received an e-mail from a fellow trader, who was asking me to write something about the relationship of cot data and currencies, so I thought I'll share it with you as well here at IT. Well first of all, CFTC publishes COT reports on many currency futures, so the basic relationship is this; you can have a look at major market participant’s positions on these markets as well. Of course one might ask, “who are the Commercials here?” Actually they are companies, who do business internationally and require the usage of different currencies than the ones they are using at home, so they are exposed to currency risks. Does COT analysis work on currencies? My answer is: YES Let me show you a chart on AUD. I have indicated some places on the chart, where a turn in price direction coincides with some sort of extreme in the COT. Of course if you would like to trade a pair, where both currencies have futures and COT reports on them, you need to analyze both of those markets’ COT report and come to conclusion, since we don’t have COT report on currency pairs. A little analysis on currencies for you this week: AUD A COT Extreme Sell signal in the report --> COT Index: C - 12%, LS - 91%, SS – 65%. Prices have already started to decline, the recent top is not far if you were searching for resistance levels for your stop. GBP We have no COT Extreme in the market. What is interesting though is that last week only SS thought prices could go higher, C and LS both cut back on their net long positions (look at the 1 yr chart, I have indicated it). CAD The extreme here is not as big as in AUD, but still large --> COT Index: C - 22%, LS - 84%, SS – 62%. The question is, would this extreme in the COT widen more or is this a relative top in prices. If the next COT report shows us that participants are moving away from their extreme territories, I guess that would confirm the top. One thing is for sure: base on COT analysis, the picture now is more bearish than bullish. EUR There was an All-Time COT extreme buy signal not long ago (indicated on chart), but could not push prices higher. Since then, C,LS and SS have moved away from their extremes. The fact that LS are in a buying mood (cutting back on their net short positions) is a bullish signal, on the other hand if this direction in COT would start to change and we would be witnessing another move towards extreme territories, I would be expecting prices to decline some more and I would be looking for buying opportunities, when we have reached these extreme levels, I would say, C at net long >250 000 contracts, LS < 200 000 contracts and SS <40 000 contracts. JPY, CHF Nothing special, we don’t really have any COT signals now. MXP Similarly large COT extreme as in CAD --> COT Index: C - 23%, LS - 77%, SS – 67%. The picture is bearish. All the best, Dunstan

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R1wkDBFvJGk&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]) Silver Not much changed from last week, the size of change in positions C, LS and SS are holding changed a bit more than average (actually metals were on top again). After last week’s signal, prices did drop a bit, but the COT extreme buy signal that happened 2 month ago is still pushing prices higher. I can’ really add anything new to this compared to my 1 week ago post --> we need to wait for an extreme in COT to start thinking about a downward turn in prices. Nasdaq-100 The COT extreme that can be found in this market is pretty significant. LS are at All-Time extreme levels, but also C and SS are close to their all-time levels as well. I’m not a “big fan” of COT signals in indexes, in my experience these are the weakest signals compared to other markets, but in this case it looks as if the signal could affect prices. I have tried to find similar cases on the chart to see what happened to prices back then (see attached chart) and I could find some working cases. The close resistance level is also favorable for traders seeking a short opportunity. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts (free) --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jdvcBAE4-U&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]) Silver It was interesting this week that all over metals, there were pretty large changes in the positions that Commercials, Large Speculators and Small Speculators are holding. These changes can be considered sell signals, but I think we should realize, that 2 month ago , there was a pretty bullish picture in the COT report for these markets, especially one in Silver (26th report - Commercials at a 563 report COT Extreme). The question here I think is to determine the difference in the strength of the two signals. In my opinion, a COT extreme picture could have a longer lasting effect, while a COT change signal has a shorter one. So following this analogy, if one took the signal in the 26th report and went long in metals, than it could be a good time to realize some profits and re-enter in a few days, when prices have dropped a little, since the COT extreme should have enough momentum left to push prices higher. Of course this decision should be in harmony with one’s trading system’s money management rules and trading strategy. I have attached a 5-year chart on the 26th report for Silver and the most recent one as well. It is clearly visible that during this 2 month, the COT picture has moved away from those extreme levels. I guess we can start talking about a bearish picture again, once Commercials have reached 50.000 or more contracts net short and Small Speculators are holding roughly 15-20 thousand (or more) contracts net long. Canadian Dollar The changes in positions amongst all participants were relatively large. In my opinion the best picture would have been if these changes took the COT report to the extreme territories that the review was talking about, Commercials net short 100.000 or more contracts and Small Speculators net long 35.000 or more contracts. The extreme combined with the change signal would have been a very significant sell signal, but of course this change on its own could also be strong enough to push prices lower. I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading, All the best, Dunstan the original COT report --> here COT charts (free) --> here

Hi everyone, The latest Commitments of Traders review is out ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u5j25_f1sWA&feature=g-all-u]here[/ame]) The first market that was mentioned, was Lumber, where there was a larger than average change in Commercials positions. The longer, five year chart shows us that neither commercials nor large speculators are at extreme levels, it is only small speculators, who seem to be extremely optimistic about the market (COT Index at 99%). The size of the change in positions is definitely large enough and this coinciding with extreme optimism from SS is not a bad combination for confirming a bearish trade. Sugar was the next market. I think this could be another good example we can use to understand COT analysis better. If you look at the 5 year chart, it is clearly visible that there was a shift in the short term trend a few weeks ago, we have moved away from the relative COT extreme and there is plenty of space left to reach a new COT extreme Buy signal. The example illustrates well that we should be careful how we view a COT change signal during a trend. I believe – agreeing with the COT review – that this signal should not be taken seriously and the down trend can continue. I will be showing some other markets shortly, meanwhile if you would like to check out the recent COT report on other futures markets, you can do so at this service that I’m also using. Let me know if you are interested in any specific market, I’ll try to analyze it for you! All the best, Dunstan

sorry, the charts... ( I always forget them :doh: )

Hi everyone, Let me share with you the link to the latest [ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ca0_6yRgXoc&feature=g-all-u]Commitments of Traders review[/ame]! I would like to start with Wheat, since I was talking about it the last time already. As the attached chart shows, nothing really changed in the picture since last week, we are still at an extreme in the COT, which – studying the past similar cases – seems to be a good short opportunity. Of course I know that some of you might want me to give exact entry levels, TP levels and stop levels, but instead I would just recommend you to have a look at other posts in the forum, where they might talk about systems, strategies that can offer a tool for such a situation. All I wish to highlight here is that Wheat is a market these days/weeks, where market participants are holding positions that are extremely long/short compared to their history. This is sort of a bubble that will burst sooner or later and it is advised to have one eye on it these days… Live Cattle I think is also interesting. It was mentioned in the review, because Commercials changed their net position, further increased it by 16%. It is interesting really that Commercials and Large Speculators are both net long, while Small Speculators are the only ones net short in the market. Of course as said in the review, a lot of Small Speculators are actually Commercials, they just don’t reach the so called “reporting limits”. If you look at the chart of Commercials and Small Speculators, you should see that the two lines have a strong correlation. Looking at the picture, I would say that it is bullish, so if you were already long this market, you might want to stay in or if you were thinking of going short, this might not be the best time for that. I am also open to discuss any particular market that you are interested in if you have any. All the best, Dunstan

Unfortunatelly I don't have any experience using the disaggregated report, but hopefully someone who has will join this thread soon and can share with us some useful info on it.

Hi miro777, I’m very glad that you are satisfied with this thread! The truth is that although I have access to Disaggregated COT report, I haven’t really studied it yet in detail, to see whether it has any useful signals or not. The reason for this is that the report has started to be published since October, 2009 and thus it doesn’t have a long history yet. The Classic (Legacy) COT report on the other hand has a much longer history. Have you got any experience with the Disaggregated COT report? It would be much appreciated if someone who has could join the group! I’m attaching a chart on Wheat with the Disaggregated report under it just to show you how it looks like… Have a great day, Dunstan

One of the most exciting markets that was mentioned ([ame=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-DXDW8wb2Wc&feature=g-all-u]recent review[/ame]), is still the Wheat (Chicago), so today I’ll continue talking about this market. On the attached chart I think even someone new to the report should see that we are at an All Time (or to be precise, close to All Time) extreme picture in the Commitments of Traders report on Wheat. It is only the Small Speculators who “still got space” to become All Time extreme, but still they are also very extreme. I have also drawn on the price chart those places in time, when the COT picture was similar. This picture that we have now can definitely be considered a good signal from COT. Now obviously I cannot say that this is the time to go short, it is up to you to decide how you wish to interpret the signal, all I’m saying is that the stress level in the market – as cleverly used in the review – is becoming extremely high. It maybe that prices continue further up for a few more weeks, I don’t know, but I do know that it will be this market that I will closely monitor in the near future. I know that there might be traders now who are viewing my thread and are not comfortable trading futures or options on futures, so my note to them is this: there are ETFs (a great list here) that follow futures contracts and can be traded just like stocks. The three Wheat ETF that I found: WEAT: direction - Long / leverage -1x / exchange - LSE SWEA: direction - Short / leverage -1x / exchange - LSE LWEA: direction - Long / leverage -2x / exchange - LSE Ok, I thought I’ll show you another market as well, since you might say, that I’m talking too much about wheat Cocoa was also mentioned in the review, cause the change size in Commercials position was larger than average. It was 28% to be exact. Now this market could be a god example, how to react to a market, where we haven’t got an extreme COT picture. It is only the change in positions that was such that we can talk about it. I think you should follow the same notes I’ve given earlier, to view this as a confirmation to your existing trading idea or it might just signal an opportunity that you should put in to your system and see whether it should be traded or not. In the following chart I have indicated similar pictures when Commercial's changed their net positions this way. I wouldn’t say that this signal is as strong as the one in wheat. If prices react to this and they start to fall, they might just fall to 2000-2100 level, but hey (!), if they do that and you’re in, that’s “fair enough” . Maybe we would get to a level in COT where it is signaling a good buy opportunity… The four Cocoa ETF that I found: NIB: direction - Long / leverage -1x / exchange - NYSE COCO: direction - Long / leverage -1x / exchange - LSE SCOC: direction - Short / leverage -1x / exchange – LSE LCOC: direction - Long / leverage -2x / exchange – LSE Please let me know if you have any questions, Have a great day, Dunstan

The Chicago Wheat --> The latest report showed that Large Speculators are at All Time, Commercials are close to All Time Extreme levels. I have indicated on the chart for you similar situations in the past, when the picture was same/or/similar. Of course as I have said before, since COT analysis is not a tool to be used on its own, one should not think of this as a signal to go short, at least not right away, but it definitely signals a high level of stress in the market, which could support a bearish move soon. So if your system allows you to go short on this market, you would definitely have some sort of support from the COT data OR if you just found this opportunity by the usage of this report, you could analyze it, whether your system allows you to enter or not. All the best, Dunstan