steve46

Generally speaking I don't have good luck, so I have to rely on skill instead...so far so good As to the rest of your silly commentary.....I have promised the site owner that I would refrain from my "normal" style of response, which might include phrases like "screw you"...for example.... Mark I hope you will appreciate that I have exhibited some restraint in this matter.... And as for you ....I hope that makes my position clear....

Really.....? Sir or madam....if the phrase "my money" is too complex for you to understand, we may not have a basis for communication.... Okay lets go at it this way....open YOUR wallet and look inside....if you see money.....its probably YOUR money....now I will look inside my wallet.....ah....I see currency inside it....that is MY MONEY.....is this clear enough for you I certainly hope so... Good day Steve

This is one of the few things I am passionate about I think vendors should be willing to demonstrate their skills for a limited time so that prospective customers can observe and decide for themselves whether they are getting value for their money.. Every year I demonstrate how I trade for a small group of folks....for 2 weeks I trade my money (using "go to meeting") and they watch....no obligation....its pretty simple....and its impossible to disguise what you are doing....you enter, you exit....the charts are up there showing everyone where you decided to act...and a person's skill level becomes pretty clear. I think every vendor should offer to do the same thing..... for at least one (and preferrably two) weeks so that prospective customers can decide for themselves...and make no mistake its not all about making money....sure thats important, but its also about compatibility....people should be able to decide whether the system that vendor teaches, is a reasonably good match for their circumstances.....and they should be able to do that without having to spend thousands of dollars up front... Thanks

Wish I had more time to say something about this. Arrows show entries at 1st standard deviation and again at a test of previous open

I am done for the day and wanted to make a correction to my previous post I used the wrong volatility number to calc the distribution. As seen above....that distribution is calculated using 11.2.....unfortunately the correct number was 9.49....Attached please find the same chart using correct information...Sorry about the mixup....in my haste to get this done I made a mistake.... Today was an excellent example of how using the right tools can provide the edge a trader needs to make money. As with all things in this business, in order to make it work, you have to (step 1) recognize that the opportunity exists...that happens when the market reacts to the news about Cyprus banks and then (step 2) you have to know what it means when price tests down to the third standard deviation....(which should contain almost all price action within a time period)...the last step isn't easy, particularly for those trying to learn this on their own, but once you have step 1 and step 2, then its a matter of pulling the trigger, and having the confidence to hold on long enough to make a profit...how much profit depends on experience, education and each trader's ability to control their emotions while the market wiggles around.

Again no time for discussion, but this might help some folks Today's globex open...2nd standard distribution hits it right on the money. Using vol of 11.2

I see that folks continue to review this thread....I have a few minutes and wanted to post this example. As mentioned a while back I am still using this calculated distribution, but with longer time frame charts. This has several advantages. First, I know that my odds of success are better when I wait for price to test one of the boundaries of the distribution. This is especially true of the S&P futures. Secondly, I know from experience that if I put on fewer trades, but the trades I do take are higher quality entries, my expectancy is probably going to improve...and thats what has happened. So the bottom line is I am taking higher quality entries, with about the same (slightly bigger stoploss), and I am able to hold longer, thus obtaining a significantly bigger win when I am on the right side of the market. The attached chart shows todays market with 1st & 2nd standard deviation lines in place (I chose not to put the 3rd SD in today....As can be seen price tested to the upside providing a nice short entry last night just prior to the London (Europe) open, then came back down to test the previous session lines..what I like about this is that you can trade it with as few as two (2) contracts, taking one off early. You can hold the other one, (and be sleep deprived like me) or you can cash it in and get some sleep. Good luck folks Steve

I mentioned to the website owner today, that I simply don't have the time necessary to post anymore, sorry, but while I am here I wanted to offer an quick update.. I still use a calculated distribution to trade. I have changed however how I trade in that I no longer use short time frame charts...nowadays my decisions are made using daily & weekly to identify the dominant trend (or lack of one)...after that I base my entries on tests of key reference areas on 60 and 30 minute charts. Using this method I am often trading the overnight market (primarily the London Open) hoping to get a favorable entry that I can hold into the US (RTH) open and if I have the energy, I sometimes take the first "pop or drop" off the US open as well. The result is that I trade less and hold my positions longer...and my risk exposure is about the same as when I was trading 5 minute (and sub 5 minute) charts. In the aggregate I have seen a substantial improvement with fewer trades, bigger winners and about the same size losses in every time period (months, weeks & days). Attached please find today's chart Good luck folks Steve

Sir or Madam I've decided to stop posting at this point. Please direct your questions to the site owner/administrator...I am sure he will be able to help you out.. Best of luck to you Steve

Here's another very simple idea that traders might find useful as a starting point for building a systematic approach to trading the S&P Futures The basic idea is to limit oneself to using longer time frame charts and trading tests of the previous range (RTH) open high & close or well established areas of support/resistance. The rule set is also very simple as follows 1. Starting with the Weekly, Daily and 130 minute charts, ask yourself whether price is trending or range bound 2. If the answer is "Trending" the next challenge is to identify "preferred" trade direction. In other words, the trader will determine in advance whether to "prefer" long or short entries 3. If the answer is "range bound" then the trader's next job is to identify Support and/or Resistance The attached charts are the basis for the system and they include the weekly, daily, 130 min and 30 min I'll talk more about it as time permits. Still testing it, but so far it seems promising...its simple in design and straightforward to implement, and because the trader works from longer time frame charts, they will tend to be taking trades at the extremes, which places the trader in better alignment with commercials and speculators who have the money to move markets, thus increasing the odds of success.

As usual the easy conclusion is probably the wrong one First, there are folks who like to teach, and are very competent pactitioners as well. The idea that those who can't do...teach....is.....on an individual basis....a myth Second, on an intraday time frame, the majority of participants are professionals, many of whom represent "big money"....that is to say, there are bank, fund, and speculative traders many of whom represent substantial capital investment, and with a variety of agendas. In fact some (government agencies for example) are not even motivated by profit, but maintain a presence to execute trades based on policy directives...the idea that "big money" consistently underperforms isn't particularly useful on a "day to day" basis. Intraday, price is "moved" by those willing to put money to work either as buyers or sellers, and from my point of view, it matters not, what part of the spectrum of big money they represent, as long as the movement they create is sufficient so that I can get on board and ride along. I do agree however that participants who know this business can make much more actually trading than they can teaching. Good luck folks Steve

Well I was going to post, but find that I am losing my patience with this screwed up (buggy) formatting code... How about someb ody getting off their chair and fixing the code....(just one example) Thanks

Based on your comments, it seems you have established a pattern of behavior that produces a negative result To compound that, in your comment you suggest that all you need is to "get out of your own way"....actually what you need is the opposite...to stop "giving it all back"...you need to understand what you are doing (actually it is what you are "thinking") and then put yourself in a position to interrupt that negative process.... Those few of us who have had access to professional training are taught to go through a process similar to what pro sports teams do....instead of looking at "game films"....we spend the weekend going back over trades, one at a time, trying to remember what we were thinking as we watched each setup develop, through to the end result for better or worse.... The process is painstaking and slow but worth your time....generally speaking retail traders all fall prey to the same problematic thought processes as follows 1. They free lance, taking trades that aren't quite right for their system 2. When the trade goes pear shaped, they fail to act quickly to stop the bleeding 3. When they eventually do stop the trade, the result affects them so much that they spend too much time thinking about that mistake, and they fail to see the next quality setup, or they see it too late 4. They may continue to be distracted by previous losses and bet too heavily on the next trade, causing a circular process that is difficult to difuse 5. They fail to see this circular process and continue to trade, when in fact they should stop and figure it out... What you really need is to take the time to figure out where you are going wrong....it isn't in your description (your post) but in your thought process....THEN THE NEXT TIME YOU SEE THAT PROCESS DEVELOPING, YOU SEE IT AND STEP IN TO INTERRUPT THE PROCESS.... The process (the analysis, identification of the problem, and arriving at a solution) is tedious but can be accompished over a weekend if you are motivated to do the work. Good luck

Traderbarry If you are interested you ought to check out the thread "day trading the Emini Futures" It may answer your questions (or perhaps raise a few more) Good luck Steve

DT.... Appreciate that you took to the time to post this...agree with your comments, nicely done.

Since you arrived Princess mostly everyone else has left the building..... So you are pretty much talking to yourself unless someone like myself, Josh or Tams decides to provide a bit of common sense...I think if we took a vote YOU would be voted off the island....I've sent a message to the site owner to that effect and I hope others will take a moment to do the same... I will be gone until this jackass is removed.....my best wishes for a pleasant and safe holiday season to all Steve

I find the gentleman's coments cryptic, uncommunicative, and generally useless, probably because he doesn't really understand what he is talking about... For folks who want to get a handle on this...lets start with sentiment and seasonal elements First, at this time of year, professionals are getting ready to go on vacation. Generally speaking in the US , we have had a good year as compared with Europe. Professionals get paid based on the profits they make for their clients....and whatever they can make on their own accounts....for those of us in the business, the emphasis at this time of year is on risk management (keeping whatever profits we have accrued so far), and trying to drive the market up if possible....news events can always intervene but that is the agenda from a professsional point of view...Be aware that the way this works is counter intuitive..this means that on the open you can often see markets correct down first (at this time of year) to shake the amateurs out, then proceed north..the move down from 6:40 to 7:20 is characteristic of this kind of action..(its called "shaking the tree")...the green arrow shows the conclusion of that shakeout process, and then up they go (resuming the primary seasonal trend)... I suggest new traders start with a standard daily chart, then check the 30 to 10 min time frames because those are the predominate time frames for professional decision making. In terms of entries. I like to wait for price to demonstrate trend, then pullback to a reference point before I act....When price is consolidating, the simplest way to proceed is to identify support and resistance and act only at those extremes....your trading plan should limit entries and have a loss limit that is realistic....for the new trader with a small account, three consecutive losses should signal that you are done for the day... The game is simple..my charts show the previous day's range. I get up early to see how the overnight market acted...as mentioned before, if it is possible I try to get on board early and hold into the open of the regular session....for me that means finding an entry sometime after 3:30 am PST...I do this because it is a low risk way to trade and if I am lucky enough to get the trend right and my entry finds some breathing room, often I will find myself with a nice payday before the markets even open....this it seems to me is perfect for the trader with a small account who wants to limit risk or who cannot trade during regular hours because they have a job or other responsibilities...it also tends to keep you out of the chop during high volatility times. Today;s chart shows a light and dark blue rectangle. this shows the previous range....at this time of year, I want to see a test of the lower boundary of that range....then as price comes back up through I want to get on board as early as possible and hold....today you can see what the result would be....ultimately success in this business is about observing what works, find a way to organize your efforts and having the discipline to execute and manage risk consistently... Good luck folks. Steve

Yep not much difference

Got it....we disagree a little bit....what I think matters is consistency....if you have an approach that uses a software it has to be reliable. If it "doesn't" work often enough it becomes psychogically difficult to bet money on it...my opinion... With respect to this market I use a different approach...for me there's only two conditions, trend and range...if it trends I want to buy or sell the first pullback or retrace, and when it ranges I want to identify the range extremes and buy and sell them...it doesn't get simpler than that... What most folks here don't seem to get is how to identify the range.....its not that hard...most of the time the range boundary is defined by the first high and low after price levels out...on the attached charts the first (left most) arrows show the boundaries...you put in your volatility lines to guide you and you pick a limit line above and below (I choose the next higher/lower candle body most of the time...then you buy and sell the extremes until they make you pay... It works for me..charts show both of the markets I trade. You usually get at least one or two good trades out of a range bound market.

Not able to sleep just yet...but I saw a couple of posts I want to respond to First...the ES has wiggled around quite a bit today.....seems to me that if you had a piece of software that allowed you to see the reversal points (to read the order flow) as Predicktor says he can, that you would want to show that off as much as possible...Today....he doesn't seem to be able to do it....one observation Second, with respect to "predicting"...I don't "predict" direction....tempting to try it, but no...I do claim, suggest, or state.... that continuation has a higher probability than reversal at most points in a chart...thats just simple observation over a period of years...when I take a shot I prefer to bet on continuation of a previous trend (the data has to support it of course). and finally, what works is what works, whether you like the timing of the idea, or the person presenting it....doesn't affect the validity of the concept...

Except getting a place in the pre-market Two (2) shots at it from midnight's London Open....shortly after 2am and then again after 4am No special software.....no mentors.....no BS...just lookin at what the previous market's been doing and assuming that "contination" is the better bet.....and from last night until today...it was. My day's over....gotta get some sleep Seeya

Well I was trained to react, rather than predict, but whatever comes I can deal with it. and since I am here trading the overnight market I guess will share some small "secrets" for those who might be paying attention... Trading the Flash PMI (tonight was the German version), I was trained to pre-position off the London Open....it turns out that the PMI is released early to a small group of subscribers (about 2-3 minutes early)...and further there is a lot of (lets call it "speculation") among certain groups that leads to what we call an early "tell"....usually characterized by a wide range bar right off the open....that bar or candle provides a clue as to the bias.... We have two (2) entries off that open, one depends on the size of the opening bar or candle and the other happens at 12:15am....you simply read the Time & Sales and watch the first 10 seconds of that bar or candle....entry is in the direction of that first impulse move...holding until 1 minute prior to the release.... Tonight was an excellent example of what we call a "layup"....good for 5-6 NQ points......with very low risk...if you knew what you were doing.... Really too bad whats his name is ignoring us, normally we would have the pleasure of his erudite comments about HFT and "correllation"...oh and of course "flow"............ Wishing you a Merry Christmas Tams.... Edit Here you go Prediktor....I see your name at the bottom of the screen....."ignoring" my posts.

Agree....I think human nature being what it is....most folks don't have the time or the inclination to dig into the subject matter.....and simply ignore the sales pitch..