steve46

Amazing....random? Several earnings reports out, all good, housing expected to be positive by a tick or two and (as I have said now several times) look what happens overnight.....for people in the business this is called "stealing the trade".....prime entries starting at around 2:15am, again at around 4am....and of course for the retail trade (who are always late to the party) at the RTH open...where they carry the ball up to about 1570 give or take... Random? Really folks I like to help, but at times you just have to laugh....on days like this I feel fortunate to be able to do this for a living... You people go right ahead with the debate....

and of course this is just my opinion. I am sure it will be ignored by those who find it puts them in an uncomfortable position.... This to me is the prototypical adolescent response to an obstacle.... A black/white comment....it will be (fill in the blank) until I find out differently....here's a news flash, the market doesn't care about your pronouncement..... As with most things in life, its NOT black/white....markets cycle from random to non-random all the time, on every time frame...if a participant cannot discern when/whether a market is exhibiting random/non-random behavior...that just means they are amateurs and therefore the best they can hope for is purely random (or worse) results if they put money at risk... Teaching people to do this I start with the obvious...every earnings season, we see "bellweather" companies report. In anticipation of these reports, markets exhibit non-random behavior....after the reports come out, again markets exhibit non-random behavior..this is true for specific economic reports as well (FOMC being the most obvious). a small child could see this.... Within the intraday session, futures market exhibit non-random behavior at specific times of the day.....these non-random behaviors are correlated with the open, with the close of cash and the close of the RTH session (to name a few)....again its very obvious, but it requires the ability to think critically to make use of it....and unfortunately most of you don't have it.....so you end up making silly statements about what the market is and isn't....that's pretty much the height of ignorance.... Good luck

Fully automated trading requires skills most folks here don't have....from the ability to conduct good research to programming to maintaining good records and having the skill to analyze results periodically to insure your system is still working....for those who have those skills OR are willing to TAKE THE TIME TO LEARN them....that is a good alternative... What many are missing here is hidden in title of Randes' thread...."when they are TRYING HARD..... It should be obvious but I would like to put a bit more emphasis on this because it is crucial to everyone's understanding of what is going on....it isn't about your conscious behavior....he is point a finger at those issues that aren't in controlled by a person's conscious mind...but by our subconscious.....that's why you can say you understand, and that you "get it".....and still be unable to do the right things at the right times.....THAT IS WHY I SCREEN PEOPLE who ask to come into my classes.....precisely because I know in some instances they simply won't be able to make it work...and that leads to (needless) disappointment and anger.... My suggestion is to screen yourself first and take inventory of who you are and what you have to work with...ask yourself these important questions 1. In my professional life....am I or have I been able to be successful 2. In my personal life....do I have good relationships with others... 3. In the pursuit of success trading....have I given myself the best possible odds of success, by putting the best tools in my hands...what has the result been (if not....why).? These are just a few of the questions that I ask folks who want a seat in my class. If you have problems in these areas, it may suggest that you have issues to resolve before you can find success in trading (or anything for that matter)... Good luck

Noticed this silliness and had to say something First of all children....I do what I can with the time I have available.... Second.....for those who happen to find this thread later when I am long gone....READ the pages....what you have are examples of a concept....how the ES market moves against the backdrop of standard statistical deviations....If you just LOOK at the examples what you might see, is that as of right now, the real opportunities are found trading off the European market open, holding favorable positions into the US open.... Third....this is the bare bones of the idea...the real meat of the system is how you recognize your entry and exits and how you manage risk...and that isn't here...Now some can take what is published here freely and take it to its conclusion....I think that's great...more power to you....for those who cannot.... I teach this to adults who apply every year.....small classes of approx. 4 people.... I don't expect to be all things to all people, but hey there's always Pristine, or Predictor

For those few who take the time to really think about these issues There are only a few valid methods for approaching markets and they ALL require the following steps 1. Characterize the target market (how it moves through time) 2. Based on that characterization, find a systematic approach that provides a way to accurately forecast price movement while adequately managing risk 3. With adequate capital, execute the plan in a disciplined manner while periodically evaluating your progress. Markets change periodically, and THAT is why there are so many methods talked about, sold and then discarded as useless....I used to teach people to see all of this in the proper perspective by demonstrating how it is done...step by step....what I found was that people (that include just about everyone here) didn't want to know or be involved with any but the last step.....too bad really because IMPLICIT IN THAT THIRD STEP IS THE NEED TO GO BACK AND DO IT ALL OVER AGAIN I have to freaking laugh at the naivete....everything in this world requires maintenance and eventual replacement....in order to maintain a business, it has to change with the times, and that includes trading....that's why I suggest (claim, state, whatever) that people who are serious about making money need to find someone who can demonstrate how...not just sell them an idea, an indicator, a system, a chart package....etc).... and that's why statistics alone, indicators alone, buying someone else's system or package or crap....won't work, has never worked and will not work in the future...if you want to do more than just be cannon fodder you have to take time to really learn how the markets work...from someone who can do it (trade) in front of you. Good luck

Actually I do mind...to really do the material justice takes time....time I don't have...sorry With regard to the 3 min candles....after a hell of a lot of testing, I found that the 3 min time frame provides the right amount of granularity (detail)...so that looking at candles on that time frame and reading the tape....it all makes sense....and I can see pretty clearly when there is real interest in moving price up or down and can see momentum as it ramps up (as participants start to jump on board the train just before it leaves the station). I've explained before that its difficult to show anyone how to do it on a discussion forum....so it should come to no surprise that I have to draw the line right about here.... Good luck folks. steve

Its the pre-market analysis that allows us to do this The analysis is all about framing the markets action, during the pre-open period The result is another easy open and a quick exit (one of the ways we manage risk) Now to get some sleep.

Here's how the trade shown above worked out Relatively easy day (if you had the patience to wait for it)

well I don't want to continue to beat this horse...so I will offer one short & sweet comment From my seat, and after several decades of seeing the parade go by....it looks to me as though there are a few ways to make money in this profession. Some of these methods are available and viable for amateurs, retail trader whatever you want to call non-pros...and if you have the sufficient capital and you can be disciplined, AND you can tolerate risk, it works...I've seen it often enough to know.... The problem is that people discount the psychology...yes there are skill people who can look at what you do and see if you are in some way causing your own problems, but there is a bottom line here, and that is the legacy of your childhood...you either have the ability to tolerate risk (to tolerate delayed gratification to use the jargon) or you don't and if you don't it is going to take an act of congress to change....so why not just go with what you have....become an investor, buy bonds, long term stocks, bank CD's, why try to fit into a coat that was made for someone else? I spend most of my time telling people that I'm not the right person to teach them....and why...mostly because I am trying to be polite...when in fact what I really should say, is that no one is going to be able to teach them, because they really should be doing something else with their lives.... Sorry if that pisses some folks off, but after I while you just have to say it like it is....

Really don't have time to say much about this....it should be pretty clear....when the markets are choppy or indecisive, unless you have an edge that works in those conditions, you wait for things to clear up On the attached charts you see price test the 1st SD....if your crystal ball is working, fine take the trade, however the other way to do this is to wait and let the market show you (display) both "interest" (in this case buying interest) and then momentum. You have to have both in order to have a profitable trade As mentioned several times previous, the Bollinger bands are what I call "training wheels"...I use them to show students one way of figuring out where the line is between wholesale and retail value (among other things)....after a while most "get it" and don't need the crutch... Arrows show the possible entries. One is risky the other low risk...figure it out..

Buying wicks are important however they don't trump news...and that's what you had today A layup occurs when price penetrates a significant level (the previous low) in a specific manner (we call this a peekaboo)....then because the SD is right there and we know that other professionals are seeing what I am seeing, I switch to the shorter time frame and read the tape.....as buyers come in to purchase at wholesale levels, it quickly establishes the trade as low risk. As I have said several times previously, in these circumstances when price retests that level, I will continue to re-charge the position until they "make me pay".....

I thought I would post this chart showing the DAX open and then the European open (London) As can be seen, price tested down to the previous low. This is an obvious long (for quite a few reasons) In my profession this kind of setup is known as a "layup". In fact there were two (2) opportunities to get long, as shown on the shorter time frame chart.... I mentioned this now to a couple of folks, but it needs to be put on record....I offered to teach a Globex class and only one person expressed an interest....now....given the complaints people express about the difficulties they have trying to obtain help (trying to obtain decent education) this really made me shake my head..... Good luck folks

While the purpose of the original post is obvious, one of the final comments caught my attention "Once the trader eliminates their demons"..... I think we all would like to believe that we can permanently vanquish our problematic behaviors, but experience suggests otherwise.....the reason this is so....is that our "demons" consist of our innate human emotional responses, among them our fears and our greed. What I have found over time is that these basic emotions can be managed by those who take the time to really understand the impact their emotions have on their professional (and personal) success. THIS is why when I start a class, instead of just taking anyone with a checkbook, I actually interview prospective students to find out how they view this world, and what their concerns are....without this step, its like having a tailor take a coat off a rack, regardless of the size, and asking you to try it on, "I'm sure it will fit".....and then (when it doesn't fit), telling you "that's the style they are wearing these days" or "it looks good on you".....lol The question(s) for me (and I assume for others) are......does this particular business, have what I need to improve, and move closer to my goal (does this coat really fit me)...and (in both cases) is it worth the cost?

Ok well thanks I guess, and I couple of quick comments and these comments are NOT meant to be critical.. First, its a good idea to know your statistics....and by that I mean just basic descriptive and inferential concepts....if you actually do the work, it gives you an advantage...if on top of that you have maturity and common sense, the difference between you and the "next" participant is significant.... Item #2...understand also that a significant number of participants are NOT traditionally educated...typically those folks have had to rely on their understanding of human behavior to make a living elsewhere in the world....this understanding of basic human nature gives them a very real advantage....they use it (some might even say they rely on it) when they make decisions.... Look folks its really pretty simple, markets exhibit dual aspects....in the same way that in physics we say that particles exhibit wavelike behavior, markets exhibit characteristics of very basic human behavior (fear & greed)....as I have said, markets tend to cycle from random to non random behavior...we can test data..(I do it every weekend) and those of us with a suitable background can see it....skilled observers who have to make a living in the markets on a daily basis NEVER discount the fact that human emotion is a work....once you understand how this works, the question random or non....is simple to answer (its both)... Now I have to get ready for the next session Best of luck folks

Inventory occurs as a result of transactions. Markets worldwide continue to be primary vehicles for institutional use, with commercial interests adding to that volume...institutions generally "stage" inventory in specific places as they anticipate seasonal price movement (that they generate) over a period of time. Worldwide, we also see Asian and European institutions staging their inventory at specific prices during the overnight market. They do this because they need to generate alpha and the choices available to them are now very limited. The cumulative effect is that an imbalance is created (and acted upon at the next market open). This also relates to the subject of orders placed at distance from current price....again there is little I can say without burning bridges, so I will simply point out the obvious....to the extent that orders (especially size) are placed at a distance from the last transaction, the chances of getting tagged are reduced to near zero, and if there is a utility as a result of that placement (and I can assure you there is) then the purpose is served and risk is managed very effectively using that strategy. In my office orders of this type were termed "smoke" or "smoking"......I leave it to the multi-dimensional thinkers in the crowd to figure it out...

These are the kinds of discussions that are (in view) pointless...non-productive For every strategy used there is a relatively simple response that can be used, for example if a participant acting on a daily time is concerned about the effect of HFT on their system they can simply take entries at the VWAP or open an account with a broker who provides that service. Equally simple strategies are available for the intraday participant. It becomes a matter of learning what your options are (educating yourself)...but then success in this business was always about that.... to participate on the intraday time frame, I have adjusted the timing of my entries and in the process I actually gained access to additional volatility while maintaining the same risk parameters...and finally, what NEVER changes is the way that professional interests act on the market with respect to inventory bias....they ALWAYS look to squeeze whichever side is out of balance....the result? You can actually use HFT activity to get a nice boost toward your profit targets (assuming you have a reasonably decent system and can figure out where the longer time frame targets are).... What amuses me is that so many here want to debate this at length...without taking the time to really think about what is realistic in terms of usable info....

Hello Rob What I've tried to do is to adapt to a more challenging personal life, by making my professional life simpler....to that end I have made a few changes.... First, changed my orientation from US to Europe....my charts now start at midnight local time and go "round the clock"...and I focus on longer time frames (120 down to 30 minutes) in order to make basic decisions (trend identification, and positioning).. In doing so, what I have found is that the trades, some of which start at or near 1am local time, are often significantly big winners, while the losers remain about the same (couple of points max) as when I traded the US market only...the bottom line is I make more money without taking on increased risk....its really quite simple... I started to post the system and then thought the better of it...you see once a person finds out what is required in terms of commitment (time spent at the screen)....these days folks want to watch reality shows on the TV and frankly many have been burned by the scam artists who used to (and still do) populate theses websites......so they tend to be suspicious and unwilling to get into it....not a problem really as I simply continue to go about my business. I do intend to start on more class if I see sufficient interest. Lets see what else is new.....ah well just for kicks I developed a very simple (it seems to me anyway) system for the US market...using a framing technique that I was taught quite a long time ago....based on specific times of the day (a variation of my "time based pivots") I frame the opening moments of each time period and enter on a break above or below. It provides at least seven (7) opportunities per day, and seems to work very well in the S&P market.... So there you have it...I hope you are well and finding good fortune in the markets Best Regards Steve PS I did start Stocktwits and may continue if I can find enough time..

First of all, We aren't all "fear based"....our basic orientation to the world is either curiosity or what I would term "anxious observation"....this has to do with how our parents (mostly our mothers) provide parenting....To put it in simple terms. If a mother lets a child explore, move away from her periodically, and then come back....it assures the infant that their world is stable, non threatening and is going to be there when needed (as they return to the mothers arms)....if however the mother is fearful, anxious, and controlling (as some mothers tend to be with their infants) then the infant picks up on that, and stays close to the mother, or becomes fearful when the mother is out of the line of sight.... Another good example is shown in the way that infants receive food or physical care (warmth, love, nurturing, however you understand that)....if an infant child is deprived or has to sustain delay (notably extended delays) in receiving food, and other essentials of life, that infant grows up knowing anxiety associated with the delay of gratification and transfers that anxiety to other areas of life....they will generally have problems doing anything that requires them to work without near immediate positive feedback.....think about what trading requires in terms of background work and research.... Again for better or worse this all happens in the first few years of our lives and the legacy we carry with us from that time forward is based primarily on that experience...that is why when I anticipate teaching a class most of what I do is screening out the infantile personalities, WHY because the odds are that even if I do a great job of transmitting the information, they will still find it difficult, perhaps impossible to A) obtain a complete understanding of the method and B) have the fortitude to execute and then control their emotions long enough to receive gratification (a significant winning trade).... I wish I could do more than just weed out the "adult children but that's what works.... Best Regards Steve

Another easy day....life is good....so many opportunities right there in front of us.

Absolutely agree with Onesmith. Couldn't have said it better than that.....

Here's tonights chart for the London open at 1am PST

Clearly I see things from a different perspective than most folks From my point of view, when a person continually fails, it is a signal that there are character issues that must be faced....these character issues are developmental in nature....that is to say...the person is generally "stuck" in the adolescent or infantile stages of development. In either case they tend to display specific behaviors that don't lend themselves to success in the adult world.... These behaviors include inability to take responsibility for their actions, inability to tolerate delay of gratification, and a need to be "taken care of", which presents as continual complaints that no matter what others do to try to help, for some reason IT IS NEVER ENOUGH..... Most of my "process" isn't about trading per se....learning how to trade is actually pretty straightforward (I can show someone how to do it in about 3 months time)....what I see as the primary obstacle is the developmental delay and the attendant character issues that show themselves when the student encounters ANY problem, ANY delay of gratification, or has to take the initiative to do something on their own...finally the issue of risk is also paramount...people with adolescent or childlike personalities cannot tolerate risk, and that shows itself in the inability to hold a position long enough to make a profit (as just one example).... I think it is no surprise that so many try to learn this profession, and fail... Best of luck to all Steve