steve46

This will be my last post on the subject. Too bad really, because it is at the boundaries of the regular trade hours and Globex that the highest probability setups occur. Ironically this is the kind thing that amateurs never think to look at, and clearly there is little or no interest in the subject, a retail trader could maintain a day job and make good money trading this way...Oh well So in this last chart you see how the trade work out. I say "worked out" but in fact a trader could simply hold a contract or two in case this continued to run (that is my standard procedure) As you can see, over a period of hours, price moved up into my "profit target area"...the rectangular blue box at the top of my screen. I realize that skeptics will suggest that this is hindsight...thats understandable...however I have little interest in the debate...if you doubt that this works, so much the better for me....(if you think about it will come to you in time)....lol Good luck in the markets

When you indicate that a pattern is profitable and suggest a percentage, the obvious questions include 1. Over what period of time was your sample taken 2. How many data points did you include 3. Is your description of the pattern in your post exact. Occasionally I like to replicate a person's research to see how accurate the claim is. I appreciate you providing the data. I like the idea and hope that I can confirm it.. and for those reading after this post, the "take-away" on this is as follows...as a professional I don't mind trading ideas that other originate...but...I do not simply throw money at a trade because someone suggests that it works....I always do my own research first for a couple of reasons First, when you do your own testing, knowing the result gives you the confidence to take the trades. Based on an analysis of the distribution of data, a trader can be confident that he/she knows what to expect when they actually trade the pattern. They can be confident enough to take trades even when they have a streak of losers, and as importantly, working with the data, you get a feel for when/if the concept stops working...because the number of losers increases exponentially over time...you see what I mean.

This next chart shows the "Globex open" on Sunday March 20th As we can see the market gapped up and then retraced. From my point of view the most important landmarks are the value areas and the origin of the gap....For Monday's regular trading session, the value area high is 1281.50, the POC is 1278 and the value area low is 1274.50. In this case price moves up initially to test the value area high at 1281.50, then it retests down to test the origin of the gap at 1274.50. The lowest blue rectangle shows the supply/demand node that I use to indicate support. Evaluating the data I notice the following 1. After the open, price retraces to test the Value Area Low at 1274.50 2. The supply/demand node lines up with the Value Area Low 3. Asian Markets are "up" 4. World news indicates that events in Japan and the Mideast are working toward resolution (for the moment). There are a number of other data points supporting a long bias, but these are sufficient for my needs. As you can see, a long entry as price tested the low would result in a favorable position right away. Just as importantly, there are usually three (3) additional opportunities to enter, and I have anotated them so that readers can see what the thought process is. Each entry point is less favorable (because the risk increases as we move away from the original entry) but still valid

Hi Traderunner, thanks for the comments and questions First, "How would I use the resource"...I think at first blush I would have said, jeez this guy isn't doing anything like I do....maybe (because I wasn't making money at the time) I am doing this all wrong....just first impression...and then knowing my thought process, I would have gone back and studied what he was doing in terms of 1. overall strategy...analyzing the previous day's price action. 2. Trying to determine "market bias".....3. Entering while price was retracing back to wholesale levels (that one would have given me problems mentally) 4. It would have been easier for me to know what kind of account size I needed, and how to use that size (gives you an example to look at).. Now some years later, what I notice is that Don (and others traders) are making money using a variety of methods. That is encouraging, because it confirms what I have thought for a while, that you can succeed IF you have the right attitude, discipline and a risk management in place. It also confirms what Mark Douglas taught me a long time ago, and that is that you have to learn to think (and act) in a "non-random" way....simply put you have to have confidence in your concept, and you have to take all the trades....even after you have had a few losers in a row, you still have to pull the trigger on the next one..(as long as you are trading correctly)...the time to "step aside" is when you have finished a specfic time period (week, month, whatever you decide in advance) and ONLY THEN do you analyze your results and make your changes if necessary. So it seems to me that there is alot that can be learned from watching someone like Don Miller if you take the time to think about what you are seeing in his videos. Good luck

Well on his video Don acknowledges that he has losing streaks..once again you're talking about something you know nothing about...I wonder if you have the character necessary to be embarrassed? It doesn't seem like you do...because you make this kind of mistake all the time and you never apologize...I think you have some real emotional issues to manage and I am not in the mental health business..Clearly we are done here....

If you actually watch the videos you can SEE that he makes money.... in the videos you see him enter the position and make money...for me thats what counts. Also I like his commentary explaining what he is doing and finally, since YOU don't like him....and based on the quality of your past comments, I am starting to really like the guy.....I will be watching his videos and posting my opinion from here on in.... I am sure the rest of the adults will do the same

Yawn.......well I don't know the man, and I don't think he needs "defending"....what I notice however is that I haven't read even one negative comment from his students (I think they are called "jellies"). Personally I like the guy.....I've seen a couple of his videos and the bottom line is he makes money trading and his strategies seem to be fairly straightforward. As an example, in several of the videos I have seen he looks to get long as price is retracing down to prior support (what he defines as support based on prior price action)....It seems understandable and when it works (and it seems to work pretty well), he makes money...On the negative side, I think he stays with losing trades longer than I would but thats just me.... I am interested and will continue to monitor his videos....it looks like he trades several accounts of varying size and in one of his videos he suggested that he intends to show how he trades size....that one might be interesting to watch. As I am writing this I am thinking that if I can get permission from my employer, it might be interesting to do a video of my own, so that folks can see how our trading styles compare.... Well good luck folks Steve

I think its ironic that with most folks looking to find a way to make money trading, this thread sits there with little or no activity. In my opinion, Miller's recent posts showing his trading are about the best representation of professional trading that you will see (unless I decide to do the same thing). For what its worth, Don goes about his business in a different way than I do...on his videos you see his desktop. I notice he uses moving averages, a 3 line break chart, $tick, and a few other things that I don't use. His understanding of the markets is very detailed. This is the kind of resource that I wish I had access to when I was starting out.... Anyway there are now four (4) videos in his series "trading after dark" and If you are serious about learning this profession, you couldn't do much better than watching this guy trade. Here is the Internet link to the video Episode #4: Chasing the Tail :: Trading After Dark

Ok then so much for the urban myth part of the thread....as for using MP, if you want to know whether it is a valid approach...yes...quite a few folks use it, including professionals although those of us who do use it have modified it somewhat from its original premise. For example I use a version of volume profile that I developed for my own purposes. As regards you time limitations, actually you have an advantage IF you take the time to get a good education about how the markets really work. As you can read for yourself, the previous posters like good sheep, think you have to play during regular market hours to make money...actually...while you can make money that way (depending on your skills, education, experience) the regular trade sessions are not the place to find the highest probability opportunities. Not here to put on a seminar but when all the lemmings are leaping off a cliff I do want to suggest to a few that there may be a different course of action...lol First, this is global marketplace...and the financial markets are interdependent. One should get a basic education about how this works....or find a trusted advisor to fill you in on the details....Second once you know how this interdepence works, you can decide which time frame is appropriate for your participation, Third, once you decide what time frame to operate on, you need a strategy...its just not that hard to figure out once you get a systematic approach in place...I use a combination method that includes a couple of ideas that work very well including "time based pivots (trademarked) , Volume Profile, and identification of supply and demand...once you have a couple of these tools in place, trading is MUCH easier, much less stressful and for once in your life, you have the opportunity to make money and have a life.... I hope some of this helps

Most folks suffer under the delusion that this profession is an easy way to make money...they soon find out that success in the financial markets requires skill and just as much hard work as any other business pursuit. Those with money often try to "buy their way in" and in the process provide income for vendors selling indicators, chat room subscriptions, advisories, educational courses, and of course brokerage services. The process is ongoing as long as people have capital to spend. Clearly people want to be taken care of, and don't want to expend the energy necessary to "earn it". They look for services that offer a "green light = buy, red light = sell" approach...Those few adults in the crowd generally "get it" at some point and go out to find the tools, the education and the experience necessary to make a dollar in the business. In other words they take the time to invest in themselves....and along the way they obtain a more realistic view of what it means to work in the markets as an individual investor or speculator... I'll go one step further in case there are any "adults" in the crowd reading this....what it "means" to be a self directed investor or speculator in the financial markets....is that you obtain trusted resources for information.....you learn to research....you become your own educator....and in the process you learn what it means to take responsibility for your own decisions....how to assess risk...how to manage risk effectively and where to look for profitable opportunities. Typically the person who finds success in this business, is one who can think critically, who can look dispassionately at the data and adapt to what they see, and most importantly when they are wrong (and every one of us are wrong at some point) accept it and make the necessary changes...It requires a calm self possessed demeanor that few people have naturally...but that can be learned if a person is motivated... I hope this helps. Steve

So here it is 6:06 and I am done for the day.... I will post one more item and then call it quits...I was look around at the other threads, and really I have to laugh....take a LONG look folks at what you have to consider for information You have folks posting what is essentially promotional material about forex "analysis" that includes "waves"...candle characterizations (bullish this and that)....and other absurd crap..and then you have folks who suggest that they can help you to (if you will only go to their website). I have to admit my bias...I am pretty sure that no one can help you to learn to trade by selling you an indicator...and certainly not by telling you when to buy and when to sell (with an advisory service)....I KNOW that some things do work, and if you have the appropriate background or basis, then its a matter of learning two things.....risk management and intelligent trade selection. If you just get those to things going....you CAN make money in the markets....and just as surely if you don't have those two items in your tool belt, you ARE going (eventually) to lose it all. Maybe its just sleep deprivation, but I don't get how a person can try to convince others that they have something of value, when they cannot describe it in SIMPLE terms....without the jargon. On the attached chart notice the arrows marking an area where price retraced three times to test 1257.50 before they took it up past 1273... Good night/Good morning/Good luck

Alright...here on the west coast USA it is now 5:48am and I have a chart of the DAX futures for those interested in this market As usual I have identified my S/D areas and left them in place as each trade unfolds One thing that I can point out now is that there are two kinds of S/D areas (in my opinion) primary (those that last for a relatively long time) and secondary (those that get taken out quickly)....Eventually all S/D areas get "taken out" of course, depending on the resting orders and the participants that are motivated to return and defend an area when price retests. On this chart if you scan left you see primary demand established on the 15th (long blue rectangle) which stays in effect while price rallies and bases above. Then on the 16th about an hour after the US open, price descends to retest, bouncing off (the first time), establishing a secondary S/D area, then descending again and taking out the primary I have commented on the gap up once before in prior posts.

and finally an 8 hour chart of the Swiss. I use this time frame quite a bit...it make life a lot easier for me.... And now back to work, before I get into trouble....you see I am not suppose to post currency or bond charts....oh well, Good luck

Here is another one for Ingot You mentioned the problems you were having with the Swiss Notice that I have done the same thing (identify the supply/demand border) and then just wait for price to show me what it wants to do. The problem here is that price just putzed around the take-off area for quite a long while before deciding to put a move on...If you have any experience with these currencies surely you know that this is where both the Yen and Swiss had to move once we saw problems in the Mideast and Japan For both example I apologize if they seem unfamiliar. I don't trade forex, only the exchange traded contracts.

Here we go, this one is for Ingot I just read your comment about the troubles you are having....This chart of the Japanese Yen might help you to see what I mean about using simple techniques....What I do is identify where supply and demand are located along a trend....What we have here is a gap, which is a strong statement about trend (isn't it)...when this happens I look for price to retrace back to the origin of the gap. At that point, you are likely to see a bounce IF the trend is still intact...and of course with this volatility it is...I outlined the upper and lower boundary of the supply/demand area...Now the real question is "can you afford the risk"..you see on any individual trade I can't tell if my entry will be successful (no one can)....that is one of the differences between amateurs and pros...we don't kid ourselves on this issue...and we don't take the trade unless we can afford to "pay for it" (if we lose)....about $800 USD The payoff depended on your profit taking process but could have been close to $2,000 USD From my point of view its a simple world...you analyze and watch until you see what you are looking for...you don't trade until you see a setup you like...then you manage risk either with your stop placement or with reduced size if the risk is too great.

I will drop in another chart to show where we are in terms of the Globex. At this point you can see a couple of things. For the ES chart on the right, we are temporarily at a stopping point. This is because we tested a supply demand node and backed off. If you look over to the left you can see the DAX chart where I have also identified a similar area. During the Globex market, the DAX dominates and leads the action. If we get sufficient volume coming in, I would expect price to take out this area and continue....If not, this could be the start of a reversal.....we will see and now I need to get back to work myself....good luck

Hello Mystic The blue rectangles are my identification of balance/imbalance "nodes" in the order flow....Once I have these in place I then monitor the Time & Sales Strip as price tests these key reference areas. It takes a while to get used to but that is the way I was taught...I lot of offices use this method (or similar methods) rather than the indicators and widgets that are found in most charting software.

Thanks Mystic for the additional info I am trying out the newest version of Esignal. I thought a screen shot might be of interest and to stay on topic, I have a comment about the Globex open and resulting trade opportunities The key to successfully trading the Globex is to accurately interpret the last 60-90 minutes of the of RTH. As can be seen, we had a significant reversal move starting at 11:20am PST, originating at 1243.25.....on the left side of the screen we see a corresponding move in both the $VOLD and $ADD, each suggesting that a particular segment of the market was actively buying (something we havent seen before). As can be seen in the ES chart, once I identify the supply/demand, not only can I position myself favorably but in many cases I can also identify a profit target. As mentioned in prior posts Institutions have been shorting the bounces during the first part of the Globex session. Looking at this chart you can see that this didn't happen tonight (at least not up to this point in time)....You can see that there were several excellent possible entries this evening....

First a comment for Ingot...sir our "shoes" are not so different....unfortunately I have to use specific tools for the bond market, because of the volume I have to move....If I were trading my own account, actually I would NOT use them because I could get similar results (but it would take more time) using other more easily available methods. Second to those interested you can trade equities using CQG, and as I pointed out, because the premium (as compared to Esignal for instance) is significant, unless you need SPECIFIC tools (they offer different data items, and their Market Profile display is better for example) it is probably not for the average guy/girl. Finally the data delivery.....I can tell you about this first hand, because there was a time when I traded two conditions that required consistent data delivery during high volume/high volatility conditions....one was Fed Announcement....the other was economic report releases including earnings....I realize that most of you don't like to get involved at those times, because the volatility is hard to manage. During these high vol times, CQG provides very consistent delivery (I know because I have had both CQG and Esignal side by side on my screens) and I have seen (in past) Esignal slow down to the point of freezing, while CQG just chugs along like nothing was happening....you see....so really it depends on what you need.... Personnaly, if I were retail...trading regular hours and staying away from high volatility situations, I would choose either Esignal or IRT as the best price/features compromise. Of those two products, I would suggest that Esignal requires the LEAST upkeep and maintenance....IRT on the other hand requires active periodic management of the database. I hope this helps Good luck

Thanks for that Mystic Actually the base and "counter" (currencies) are indicated at the bottom of your chart. They show up nicely there. I assume the B indicates the scope of the intervention expressed in the base currency (please advise if I am wrong). Generally speaking intervention in a currency is not productive, because the broader market is always aware of the stressor that caused the action to occur. This puts the currency under more pressure than before, because it mobilizes speculators who might otherwise stay out...What might interest you is how long (and how far) the currency can be moved by the government before heading before resuming its prior trend.

One thing that needs to be said to put this in context....is that we cannot know (no one does) whether this is a bottom or not....generally speaking smart money adopts a two pronged strategy for this...on the one hand the gather intelligence as best they can about the status of events around the world. When prices drop to point where buying them would represent a significant premium to their current basis (their current average inventory cost), they "put a toe in the market" and buy (as we see today)....knowing full well that the market could continue to drop. Their thought process is that even if prices continue to drop, they have still lowered their overall cost of owning the asset. Both Institutions and smart speculators will want to wait a bit longer to obtain clarity as to the longer term status before mobilizing significant capital. They wait and evaluate the news and the market's response...if the market continues down they will make periodic buys at specific levels (these can be anticipated by looking at the charts) and continue the process of lowering their base cost of owning assets..... There are two ways to monitor the market's response to news. One is to look at the open interest as it fluctuates from day to day (go to the CME website for that data), and the other is to monitor the put/call ratio.... If members want to obtain additional resources with regard to strategies for trading "events" one of the best books on this subject is Ben Warwick's "Event Trading; Profit from Economic Reports and Short Term Market Inefficiencies"

Here is a chart of the $ADD which is my preliminary indicator of institutional money coming into the market today At the today's low institutions came in with basket executions of buys on stocks they wanted to obtain at distressed prices. This is reflected in the number of issues going positive at the low

Hoping to provide some clarity about the markets I thought I would post this As we can see the markets are dropping in response to the situation in Japan and adverse news appearing during the trading day... As I mentioned in previous posts (the mentor thread) professionals characterize this as a market with an "obvious bias"...and when that happens they orient to one side (the short side The general strategy is to short every bounce until made to pay up....and in this instance the bounces occurred at the end of regular trading each day....the short entry occuring after the open of the Globex session The longer time frame strategy is to wait for US stocks to drop sufficiently to mobilize capital. At that point, institutions will tend to come in (as will other speculators and investors) to buy inventory at depressed prices Today we are seeing the first real institutional move as price moved below 1250 to a low around 1244....The buying at those levels was strong and the S&P futures moved more than 20 pts up from that point. If there is to be a continued move it will have to correspond with a change in news....that is to say that continued bad news WILL drive prices down further....institutions view this in terms of probablilty and they gather their own intelligence as to what is happening around the world. This buying is the first sign that institutions are "putting a toe into the water"...now we will see whether developements in Japan and the Mideast support continued buying or if this is just one more bounce in a continued move down. The attached chart is a continuation of the original posted in the "the right coach/mentor" thread....on the right you can see the original notation where I posted my comment that participants were likely to see this move. As can be seen price dropped, then bounced and then adverse news hit and we dropped again today to the lows around 1244. At that point institutional money came into the markets

My apologies if I am offending anyone but you folks have some strange ideas about software...The best quality charting software and most consistent data delivery is CQG....Professionals use it because the data delivery doesn't hang up when you get volume surges (like during economic report releases or Fed Announcements). The rest of the vendors are about the same including Esignal and IRT..... I use Bloomberg to trade the bond basis using IRR data (for the repo market)....I've never seen a retail trader using Bloomberg or any professional level toolset for that matter...probably because the cost is prohibitive.....thats understandable. Unless you need specific tools that only Bloomberg has, I would go to Esignal for the best middle of the road package....If for some reason the original poster needs specific data feeds of chart tools the next best bet is to call Becky at CQG and describe what you need...if they can get it for you it will cost less than Bloomberg Best of Luck Steve

Hi Mystic, and thanks for the kind words. Your comment is also interesting and very pertinent to the subject at hand. At the end of the previous session, the S&P futures bumped up as though it were going to reverse....As I mentioned yesterday, professionals see this market as one with an "obvious bias" due mostly to the turmoil we see in Libya and Japan's tragic natural disaster. The tendency is for institutions to look to mark the market down at every opportunity, so that they can buy inventory at distressed prices. Yesterday at close of RTH, the S&P futures moved up as though to reverse the trend....then as I mentioned "coincidentally" someone hammered it down right after the open of the Globex market. I posted a chart showing the short entry off of the supply/demand node and here is the continuation chart, showing the 50 pt move south. I am like you in this respect, and would not have expected to catch this move entirely, but then even a few extra points would have made it a very nice day.