steve46

Sir or Madam Whether you make or lose "a dime" in relation to a software program you are recommending doesn't matter at all..to the folks on this website what matters is whether they can make it work (I am pretty sure they can't) and whether it will take time (a lot of time) and money to find out that in the end, it is crap... Interesting isn't it, that people appear out of nowhere and on their first or second post, decide to graciously tell the rest of us about some magic piece of software or indicator that will turn it all around, and you don't have to do any "work" to reap the benefits...all you have to do is contact them.....or go to some website and download it....

Promising to "make" a person profitable is my opinion, a reliable sign of a scam... I will leave the legal issues aside (there a couple that pertain but then it all depends on how much some poor person loses before they talk to an attorney). Best of luck to all Steve

The unfortunate truth of the matter is that this won't help you to consistently identify opportunities. Professionals know that folks are watching the orders by size and they have ways of making it work against you. For example, I could show you a "size" execution and then offset it with much more size on the other side once you (and others) have "taken the bait". This is often done on the institutional side just before a strong countertrend move or reversal off a base....What does work is understanding how order flow is reflected in the display of candles (it all right there in front of you IF you know what to look for). As with all things in life, this of itself is not the only thing you need to participate profitably...Once you understand how to interprete order flow by looking at the chart, you need other tools to confirm your decision. That is why I posted about "time-based pivots" and tape reading in my threads. I am also doing this every day for my class...Well its Sunday and I have a family obligation to attend so I have to cut it short right here. Good luck Steve46

I suspect that it is a little bit of all three...one has to have an aptitude for the business, and it is certainly true that successful participants work extremely hard...for example I estimate that I put in more than 50 hours a week, and I have been lucky enough to have learned from skilled professionals. Finally I would estimate that it took a good 6-7 years to get consistent...

Yes, you have it right on target....the only question to resolve is whether the size of the supply/demand node is too big for your risk tolerance....you see what I mean? I use that data to decide whether to take a trade or to stand aside....Also if I may add to that...if you think about it...the size of the supply/demand node is related to the time frame of the chart....on longer term charts the size of the node is bigger, therefore if you see a nice setup, you have to be willing to take a bigger risk....and the final "take away" is that you also want to have a bigger potential profit target on your horizon....Depending on your perspective, this can be "pro" or "con"...but one thing it does is "enforce" a realistic size stop for every trade setup.. Hope this helps you. Best Regards Steve

Yes I was thinking about your comment. We call that problem "aggregation"...and it requires a comment relating to quality not quantity My bad...sorry

This is the "logic" that I often hear from those who haven't taken the time to adequately test their own systems, or from those who have insufficient experience in a market. If you know what you are doing you can corellate stop placement with volatility, that way on an individual trade basis you can minimize the cost of being wrong and on a systemwide basis (over a period of months for example) you can keep risk down to a point where you know that profit will always exceed expenses. For individual trades I know where I am wrong because "being wrong" corresponds to a boundary of my supply or demand node. Once price closes above or below a "node" the reason for being in the trade is invalidated and I have to pay up. On a systemwide basis, I can allow myself to be wrong a specific number of times per day, week and month...once I use up those "bullets" I'm done. In other words if I don't have a valid edge, my system will eventually stop me from trading completely. The way it works for me, holding to strict risk management rules on a daily and weekly basis actually "insures" the profitability of my system on a monthly, quarterly and yearly basis. Sorry I can't provide more details but I wanted to give folks some idea of what can be accomplished if you really look into the subject. Because I always hear this question I will answer it in advance. Yes you still have to have an edge for this kind of risk management to work....If you don't have an edge, this system will eventually make you stop trading...all this does is maximize the result you get when you have an edge (and the discipline to trade it). Best of luck to all

If you have something of substance to contribute by all means...go right ahead If you look back at the silly and petty little comments that preceeded these recent posts, I ask you "how could one NOT have an open mind and still post here"?

and while I have a moment lets extend blowfish's comment a bit further.. In terms of my training, I was taught that systems based on a statistically significant sample size are likely to be more or less profitable as the raw data (the market) cycles in and out of "stationarity"...(I will leave the research to the reader)...Since the market exhibits stationarity on different TIME FRAMES, if you want to be consistently profitable, you need to find a way to identify what those time frames are and when your target market is cycling between stationarity and non-stationarity.... I am always glad to learn something new, so as you can imagine, I look forward to hearing your comment.

Sure we can go in that direction....although not many will be "interested" or able to follow if you do...I'll take a stab at it.....what is the minimum statistically significant sample size for segemented data? I was taught that it depends on how much confidence you want to have in the result and whether or not you want to be able to reject the "nulll hyothesis" and avoid making a "type II" error... To be clear, with time based pivots, my office did the work long ago with more than 10 years of data..this is the reason why when I talk about it I am "confident"... Further when you talk about trading..this is but one of the significant differences between professionals and amateurs...amateurs want to see if you took trades thinking that the success of a short term series means something...professionals know it means little or nothing and WILL NOT TRADE A SYSTEM JUST BECAUSE SOMEONE ELSE HAS A COUPLE OF WINNERS IN FRONT OF THEM. Generally speaking, skilled traders won't trade a system until they verify it themselves...

Interestingly, although you complain about my tone of voice, you and many others (according to the page views) have taken the time to read the posts (all of them)...... and I am pretty sure you have taken as much from them as you can....regardless of whether you think I am trading or not... I don't agree with your premise Josh...and I think the best way to resolve your skepticism is to suggest that you ignore me and don't read my posts...that solves your issue about being "talked down to" once and for all.... I am glad I could be of help to you....sorry we won't be talking again... Good luck in the markets

So lets make it clear what you have just said...you want me to compromise the trust of my students so that you can get what you want...ethics doesn't matter to you...thats what you have just said... and there is no "name calling"...I am accurately characterizing your behavior as typical of a 9 year old child....We expect children not to understand the issues of ethics and trust at that age... Thank you for being honest, now I am going to go have a life while you continue to dig yourself a deeper hole.

At the top of the home page, go to "forums" Scroll down to "Emini Futures Trading Laboratory" and click on it Scroll down until you see my threads (here are the links) "An Institutional Look at S&P Futures" http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/institutional-look-s-p-futures-8859.html "Trading Adverse Events" http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/trading-adverse-events-9488.html and "Ideas for Struggling Traders" http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/f32/ideas-struggling-traders-4333.html So of the three threads, the last one "Ideas for Struggling Traders" is the oldest..and some of the information is out of date... I hope this helps you, but if you need more up to date info simply PM me.. Good luck Steve

This is on the level of a 9 year old child. apparently your emotional age Get real. Most people here are (like myself) running out of patience with your silly adolescent crap If you need help...go back to my threads, and do some of your own work Just applying time based pivots to a distribution of prices...an intelligent person could fashion a systematic approach that worked...thats what we do...We apply principles of human behavior to a distribution of prices..we trade only at the extremes of that distribution and it works consistently........if it didn't work professionals wouldn't use it... You get slapped down and then we have to endure multiple paragraphs of your irrational ramblings as you attempt to explain yourself I can assess your situation in three sentences 1. You have no clue as to how this business works 2. You're getting desperate because you can't seem to find an approach that works 3. You'r running out of money... Expose someone? yeah right....tear up....yes perhaps..... with laughter....Thanks for the entertainment... I would say we are done....

Everybody here is a "bunch of talk" champ........you as much or more than anyone else... Now if we compare the threads I have authored to yours...I am still wondering WHERE you have offered a systematic approach to the market that works....? Mine can be found in "An Institutional look at the S&P Futures"........and in "Trading Adverse Events" and of course "Ideas for Struggling Traders" you on the other hand have done nothing of note except display your ignorance...repeatedly... By the way, challenging people to demonstrate what they are doing is the oldest ploy on the Internet...."Prove it"....right? Why? If I am able to make money with the approach that I outline in my threads, what do I have to gain by letting you see the details? Nothing....YOU are the only one who gains....Its a silly adolescent attempt to get something for nothing... I am sure you can understand now why most of the time I ignore you. Sorry but if you want to shake your little fist at someone, you shouldn't be surprised when you get verbal slapdown.

Lets go a step further since I have my doubts that about the thought process at work here For those of us who actually make living in this industry, what matters is performance over time...simply put....the markets open every year in January and what matters to our clients is whether or not they stay above or below that openning price (for the NYSE that means 1263.50)...after that what matters to our clients is whether price stays above or below the quarterly open, the monthly open and even the weekly open...If we want to keep our bonus money (and our jobs) we are motivated to support the market (in a bull market), when it tests those important financial landmarks....most importantly, as each time period draws to a close, that motivation to act becomes magnified...this is most clearly demonstrated in the equities markets, and in currencies where those who actually execute trades know that most of the business is done at specific time periods where liquidity is at its peak or conversely toward the end of each time period where time considerations may force institutions to act in order to complete their "business" before they close their books..... Finally, in the NYSE where the bulk of volume is automated execution, a large part of that execution is time-related...specifically bots are programmed to act AT SPECIFIC TIMES...TO MONITOR WHAT GOES ON AT THOSE TIMES and to execute based on a logic that is time preferential...."if we see price at xxxx at 6:40am, and if we see volume at xxxxx, then buy/sell a basket of xxxx isssues at the market".... Leaving aside the issue of event trading which is all time driven..it is clear that time is a vital element in terms of most (successful) professional approaches.

As usual, urban myth and ignorance abounds Time and price...in my opinion are all that matter...I have used the same formula for more than 12 years now...not one losing year, quarter, month or week....I have had losing days, but thats the worst that can be said of it... The basis is in my thread...(don't want to offend the powers that be, so unfortunately you will have to figure it out for yourself) Time-based pivots work because the people who have the horsepower to move markets use them...period...and they are the ones who decide when (time) to put capital into a market...and finally in the classes we just started it worked like a charm (once again) with a first week's take of $3000 for only 4 day's trade (every participant trading a small account less than $20,000)...with an entry accuracy of about 78% (I haven't finished my end of week analysis yet but that is about where we stand....does technical analysis work? as mentioned previously it depends on your skills level...for amateurs and hobbyists...no....for professionals....yes...definitely... As for the person who posted this silliness, really you need to update your understanding...I am sorry but thats about is polite as I can be when I read this kind of absurdity in a public post.

Technical analysis is simply making use of the tools of the trade...If you ask a skilled master mechanic if his tools "work" he will probably just laugh at you...of course they do....when he uses them..when someone else uses them the result may differ. I have a small group of folks looking over my shoulder every morning asking similar kinds of questions...once they see it work in real time.....the dialogue changes completely... For technical analysis to work, one has to fit the tools to the job, and to current market conditions....the problem is that most folks don't have sufficient skills or experience to make those calls...and they simply try to apply old tools and old techniques to a dynamic market that has changed significantly since the tools were invented. The result is usually inconsistent performance and slow bleeding of the account down to nothing...(at best)... These days the tools that work are geared toward evaluating broad market balance/imbalance of orders and momentum...most of them aren't even included in charting packages (or they are "add-ons" that you have to pay extra for)...so it isn't surprising that retail traders end up asking these questions. Good luck

Well, my primary is CQG and my backup is Esignal...Since Esignal was bought out by Interactive Data, they put significant money into a complete re-write of the program...and in my opinion it is professional level now. As for the issue of keeping or dumping a provider, I have another comment...I think providers need to offer value for the money...if not (and in this case I don't see the sufficient value) I would look elsewhere...again just a simple comment... Finally from my point of view, silly commentary about qualifications means nothing to me...I hope in the future you will have a little more substance to contribute. Thanks Steve

What an interesting comment... Perhaps you could take a moment to think before you post next time.. I use CQG for my primary and Esignal for my backup...since I am not able to show my primary screen, I use Esignal for posts to public sites. As far as Esignal goes, since they were bought by Interactive Data, they have taken the time and put significant capital into a complete re-write of the program...As far as I am concerned this is a professional (suitable for use by professionals) level product. Its only one man's opinion but thats how I view the subject. Is HEHE supposed to mean something to me...?

Okay....so I guess one more comment than I call it quits for his thread...first, another bit of urban myth...yes particpants sometimes elect to take a large order and execute in smaller pieces.. but that is not what matters for futures markets...its the contrast between the roll of the tape when buyers step it, versus the roll of the tape when sellers come back into the picture...doesn't matter whether one side or the other tries to disguise their size, because sooner or later it is coming across the tape (on the Time & Sale strip).....for the record the equities markets are diffierent and then (if you are trying to read a DOM display), that distinction IS important because big volume CAN be disguised....OK I am done...good luck

First one should be aware that in this venue, it is impossible (in my opinion) to describe how you use the Time & Sales Strip in trading....to do that one needs a way to communicate in real time and by necessity you need to have an active liquid market during RTH... For the poster pbylina, all I can say now is that your display is incorrect...you don't need time in the display. After all you are looking at current price...you know what the time is...what is important however is price and size...only those two data elements... To make use of the "time & sales strip" a trader monitors the way the display changes AND they also look at the NYSE tick, and other data (preferrably volume)....there are several ways to do this and one has to have patience because it requires that you direct your attention to to one data item, then scan another, then another....all as you watch price moving up and down...personally I don't a way to offer a written instruction that works. so I will simply say that you need to start by watching the data and observing how it changes in relation to price...even within my class environment I would expect it to take anywhere from a few months to more than a year for a student to become proficient enough to identify favorable trade entry this way...Once they do "get it" however...it really changes the game... And finally for those who see the importance of learning to use this tool set...professionals have a way of adapting this to any liquid exchange traded market...the way they do that is to put a display similar to the NYSE tick above or to the side of any DOM (depth of market) display...typically they choose a 2 minute chart of the cash market...for example in the DAX, we would use the XETRA dax on a 2 minute time frame...this display shows you the movement of the broader market. The trader learns to compare that display (showing the ups and downs of the broad market) to the DOM showing the ups and downs of a single market or issue and one can (eventually) learn to find favorable entry based on that comparison...Again (unfortunately) my ability to do more in this environment is limited...you really have to see it in real time to get an idea of how it can work for you.. I wish I could do more, but it would be unfair to the students who I am working with at this point...I won't post again in this thread as my class has started, but I wish you all the best of luck. Best of luck Steve

That is typical of a retail broker....I would dump them..but thats just my opinion...

Okay so I am trying to understand how a struggling trader benefits from a situation where as you put it, they need a "six figure account" to follow along....also you mentioned that the moderator uses proprietary indicators (so that the students are tied to him) and finally you mentioned that for the most part they are subject to marketing from outside brokers and such.... To me, this isn't much help...its more like a gentle enema while someone removes the money from your pants.....Sorry I seem to have run out of patience with this kind of !%&*! Well good luck with that folks Steve

Hello Andrew? (Hope I got your name right) I use Esignal for data and charts. What you see is the new re-written version....If they had not done this I would be using CQG (and paying a lot more for it) My "system" is essentially the same as on the thread "An institutional look at S&P Futures" I use supply/demand analysis, time based pivots, and value to find high probability setups. I have used this system for about 10 years and it works nicely... Hope that answers your questions. If not PM me. Steve