steve46

Okay this is for those interested in MP or Auction Market Theory What I have found over time is that the principles of Auction Market Theory or Market Profile are valid. They reflect basic human nature (the wish to find or obtain value when buying or selling a product in the open market). Unfortunately after you learn the basics you still have to fashion a systematic approach from those principles. The most obvious basic principle is buying and selling at or near "value" as established on any time frame. Not so obvious is the transaction that can occur at the IB (Intial Balance) or the transactions that can occur at beginning and end of any traditional time periods What you may want to think about is 1. Are other traders watching these price areas (I call them "Key Reference Areas" and if so, 2.) can they be traded using only this data, or should you be integrating these data points with other tools so that you can make good decisions AT THESE PRICE POINTS. and of course once you get into the subject a bit and have observed how price acts, some may notice that there are times when price is located at a significant distance from value (due to overnight news or the release of an economic report for example)...what do you do then? What I have done within my system is to integrate MP with "Supply/Demand Analysis" and with other tools such as my "Time-Based Pivots".....I use the confluence of these elements to signal possible buys or sells, and I confirm my decision by "reading the tape" (reading the time & sales strip)...Ultimately your trade will only work is you are on the side that has volume behind it. so be advised that (in my opinion) just using Market Profile on its own will be a difficult road to go down.... Best Regards Steve

And for Thalestrader...my class has just started and after only a few weeks, we are still in the first stages of a curriculum last involves 14 modules...There is nothing to "prove" (except to my students) because unlike the chatrooms, mentorships, and greenlight buy/red light sell systems that many were naive enough to spend your capital on...I am interested in providing a comprehensive basic education....while I do trade and my students are welcome to try my methods, our process does not require them to do anything except pay attention while I demonstrate what to do...As we move through the curriculum they are going to see whether I can do this profitably because it is impossible to hide when you do it in front of a crowd of people...It either works or it does not (yesterday for example I had a difficult day)....those are the folks I care about not some nut case who is pissed off because I will not work with him ....read back throught the posts and you will see his adolescent attempts to get me to show him what I am doing....This isn't about protecting members...its about one person's (guess who) emtional issues... Now I am NOT willing to work with MM because based on his behavior on this site, I view him as unsuitable to work within my class....I did offer an invitation to Negotiator and I may offer other invitations to members as I see fit...after all its my class, and I am responsible for the results...I think this may put things in a context that you can appreciate..

2/3rds men/1/3 women As I say I think it it more about individual temperment. Sorry to be so late in replying, this was a particularly difficult day for me... Best Regards Steve

Ingot I am a limited human being, who happens to be very, very good at this profession...I can't be all things to all people however...and I don't intend to try...I think the only thing a person can do is to evaluate whether they are making progress toward their goals....it is a question we all have to ask ourselves...My own experience is that most if not all the people who claim they have something authoritative to say (on the subject of trading anyway) upon closer examination, are simply pretenders....sorry to be so harsh but that is probably as close to the bald truth as you are going to get..I have been through it all, from losing to winning and all I can do is suggest to people that I might be able to help...the rest is up to the individual.... Best of luck to you Steve

All I have is my recent experience In a class that has been underway almost two months, the men are more profitable and better risk managers. In contrast the women are more patient and seem to "think" more clearly.... So, there are differences but I would suggest they may be more accurately attributed to individual temperment rather than gender.

Well you certainly gave it "the old college try" Norman Unfortunately if one does not have an edge (a replicable, established mathematical advantage) that they can execute, it won't matter how disciplined they are...in fact one might suggest that a disciplined trader using a bad or even a mediocre system (a system without a mathematical edge) would actually bleed his or her account dry sooner, because part of that discipline is to take every trade.....Also a system without a mathematical edge will probably experience longer losing streaks then the trader can anticipate making it psychologically difficult to trade........ah well, again nice try....perhaps a little more thought on the subject will bring you around.. Now one might ask, why so harsh (I would not but some people would feel that way) and my reply ladies/gentlemen is that a person who in his "preamble" claims to be "one of the few" blah blah blah, should in theory be better educated that this....after all this is something that any journeyman trader should be able to "prove" to him/herself. I don't expect you to say "oh my it seems I overlooked those points, well back to the drawing board and thanks so much"....so I will simply go my own way while you explain how you are "right after all" Please do go right ahead with your comments Cheers Steve

Yes I think the key to any evaluation of a method is just that. Consistent performance over time. and in addition, although I cannot compel anyone to do this, I will suggest to my students that they come back to the forum and talk about their experiences and some of the challenges they had to deal with during their training.

Like yourself, Rande is selling his own particular concept to the public I'm not having any, but you may want to spend more time corresponding with him...

I suspect you are feeling like an idiot because you have exaggerated your credentials and your experience trading. I did not offer an opinion of other teachers, I simply said I had no way of knowing what they were doing or not doing....If you are uncertain about what I have said, I suggest you re-read my post...rather than continuing to mis-represent my comment. I understand your point clearly, however my experience does not support your conclusion....In fact quite the opposite. thanks for your input

I answered your questions carefully. I can only answer from my point of view. How do I know what another teacher is doing? or not doing? In answer to your question about what to do specifically I offered a link to a very well written commentary on testing...apparently it was too much work for you to read and comprehend the text... My answer remains the same. The difference between pros and amateurs is in great part, about preparation....you prepare by testing your system and evaluating the results. You correct what doesn't work (thats called adapting to the environment) and you add risk management. The rest is all about discipline....The kinds of questions that have been asked in your last two posts are very similar to those asked by my students....that is why I am surprised that you suggest that you have 17 years of experience behind you. I have to say I have my hands full with my class in progress....so if you expect me to put on a seminar on the details, I don't have the time or the inclination to do that...sorry.

OK, since you are asking "for someone else" let me make a couple of suggestions. First, if a person is really serious about this, sooner or later they will need to find a skilled experienced trader, willing to let them see how it is done....Personally I don't thing you can learn this profession by reading a book, or taking a weekend course or a webinar.....there is just too much detail, and nuance that has to be explained in person.... You ask how I can know that my students are tweaking their prep correctly....and my answer is that I only have a few students and I watch them very carefully....Furthermore in addition to the regular trading session, I hold periodic weekend meetings where we educate the student to make sure that they know just how important it is to be detail oriented. Since we are few (the class will max out at 20 students) everyone knows whether you are executing properly, whether you are following the discipline, whether you are taking profit correctly and whether you are managing risk...In a small class you can't hid anything.... Finally, all of us (including myself) will be reporting our results on a quarterly basis. I dont' really have the time to wonder whether people are overthinking, overtweaking, or whatever it is that you are suggesting. All I know is that I have been doing this "right" for many years...and when I show others how to do it, if they are motivated and pay attention, they make money....its that simple. Regarding the last part of your question. There are adjustments that have to be made. They are seasonal adjustments and as such, they are no surprise. For example I tell my students that during the summer months we are going to make adjustments to our profit taking rules and we are going to change (slightly) when and how we place our stoploss...When there is no surprise and the adjustments are orderly, the impact is minimal....in fact it is part of what I teach the student to do....adapt to changing conditions... I hope this answers your questions (because we are in process of preparing for fed day) See you later Steve

Whenever I hear folks try to promote Elliot Wave, I am reminded of the comments by Jack Schwager in his first book, where is his waiting for a trade to develop (based on an Elliot wave setup) and it never materializes (actually a significant loss is what did materialize... I think the main problem most folks find when they look into the system is the lack of standardization. Good Luck Steve

Hello, I do this for living...have done it for years. I work in futures now (S&P) but I did work in the Euro and Bond markets May be a good idea to understand that its a big world, a competitive world, and your competition are some of the smartest most motivated people in the world.....all because there is a lot of money at stake..and so If you last long enough you may discover that there are many levels of participation....you can participate as an investor (long time horizon) as a swing trader (variable time horizon) and as a short term day trader. Most newbies are drawn to the fantasy of the "daytrader"...You get up, you trade the market and make money (of course you do) and then you go do something else with your new found freedoms (time and money, right)... I hope it works that way for you, but I would suggest you prepare for an "alternate reality"...and that one involves long hours learning your profession, endless searches for "an edge", and then endless research to maintain that edge (and thats just the start). Once you have a theoretical edge that you believe is viable, generally speaking you get to have the experience of find out that your system doesn't work as you thought it would...You find that out by losing money....more than ever planned to lose, and that causes you to stop and re-evaluate your ideas.... Its a turning point in most newbies experience, because from here you have two possible destinations....one is that you buckle down and find the tools necesary to win at this game...and in the process you discover it is nothing like what you expected...or the other destination involves either blowing out your account, or bleeding it dry slowly because you can't find a solution to the big problems. I certainly wish you the best...and I guess I would suggest you take it slow, and preserve capital as long as possible. I think your best investment is in your education, but then most people don't take enough time to do that....Oh well. Good Luck Steve

Yes, my comment is that preparing skllfully corrects a lot of problems including this one (hesitation to enter into trades). It also means that the student has the chance to develop a good track record....a record of entering trades and obtaining favorable position and finally it means that when they are wrong they know how to manage not only the risk, but their own emotions. I show people how to do this, but you can't even start unless you know how to prepare.

An excellent question! First, my environment is unique. I learned how to prepare properly and I cannot remember the last time I was surprised by a long string of losing trades. it just doesn't happen to me or my students. In my experience, the ability to adjust and to find success in the market is all about preparation....in fact it seems to be the main difference between amateurs and pros....specifically amateurs seem to be willing to throw money at a system just because they read that it works on a website....No professional would do that.... Finally, a skilled pro is going to take the time to do a Monte Carlo test (or the equivalent) so that he/she can determine (among other things) what the expectation is for distribution of results over time, including consecutive losses and drawdowns. By the way, you've just explained to me in a recent post that you have "17 years" of your own experience trading. So the obvious question is "how is it that you don't aleady know this?" Here is a link to an article that may interest you; http://www.mesasoftware.com/Papers/System%20Evaluation.pdf Good Luck Steve

Actually Rande, I have made no comment about gay people...frankly I have no interest either way... The gentleman in question (dubbed "Mighty Mouth" by another member) is as usual marching to a different drum and of course is welcome to it....I believe he is a person that you might actually help.... For the record, I have suggested that fear of "pulling the trigger" indicates that the participant has not prepared adequately. In our class we learn a method of preparation that instills enough confidence that our students can in fact overcome the natural tendency to be hesitant when entering a new environment. Once they see the benefit of skillful preparation, and we have established a track record of successful entry, as well the ability to handle periodic loss....those students report that they do not find the experience of entering the market as intimidating or compelling. I would suggest that this comment is in fact an "adult explanation" of what is going on..... Always glad to hear your comments about trading and world events Steve

I have explained why my students do not have this problem (we prepare properly). If English comprehension is giving you problems, have an adult explain it to you.

I will go past all the silly psycho-bable....fear of success...give me a break Your uncertain about how it all works....you haven't "seen" this (trading) done successfully, therefore you don't know what it feels like to do it right (thats what uncertainty is) I am guessing that you feel that you are "on your own" in term of making this work.... If those comments are on the money, what you need is good advice, not psycho-bable I suggest you take some time off and look elsewhere....I have some preliminary recommendations For example you may want to look up Jeff Quinto...and lets be clear...I am NOT recommending his mentorship program.....what I AM recommending is that you read is comments (available at no cost to you) about how to do this right.... Another recommendation is that you hook up with a successful trader and ask them if you can watch (thats right simply watch what they are doing).....This will be difficult to arrange but if you can find someone who will allow it, you will get to see what it feels like when you are executing trades (winners and losers), and most importantly you willl get to see how professionals manage their emotions through the ups and downs of this very demanding profession....again you may want to email Jeff Quinto and ask him if he knows someone who will help you out. If you cannot, get back to me, and I may allow you to watch me (I have a class going on now and depending on my situation I may have space for you...take the time to look for other resources first please. While I am at it let me mention a couple of things that may make all the difference between feeling uncertain and exposed when trading to feeling confident and optimistic about each new day.... In my class, we don't have this problem (anxiety about pulling the trigger)...and reason we don't (in my opinion) is that we emphasize PREPARATION above all else....the evening before each new day's open, we go over our charts and we make sure we have located underlying demand and overhead support.....we make sure we have our time-based pivots printed out and that they are correct. We monitor the overnight market to insure that we know what has happened in Asia and Europe. We know what economic reports are going to be released, and what their impact will be on the US market. Finally before the open, we plan our first two trades in detail. We know what where we are going to enter, we know where we are going to take our initial profit, we know where we are going to move our stops and if it goes against us we know exactly how much we are going to lose...all in advance.... Do you do this? If the answer is "no"....at least part of your problem is obvious....you're not preparing like a professional, instead you are trading like an amateur and the result (random success and periodic loss) would make anyone uncertain and fearful....In other words your fear of pulling the trigger is actually your basic intelligence trying to keep you out of trouble.... Best of luck to you Steve

Whats wrong with lagging indicators? Ok I'll play...theres nothing wrong with lagging indicators, however if you rely on them for your entry you are always late.....thats one #2 they have no predictive ability. What you need is the ability to predict continuation or reversal of trend and then continuation...indicators can't do it consistently....thats 2 #3 They "HAVE THEM" so that naive newbies will use the software thinking that they have a way to make money....I believe thats 3 strikes.....

Your thinking is correct, except that skilled participants will want to buy below value and sell above. Generally speaking you will get another opportunity to enter "at" the number however be aware that others are looking at these areas and there is a lot of front running. Good luck Steve

They are explained in my thread "an institutional look at the S&P futures" Good luck to you Steve

OK then, I have no intention of trying to "correct" you. I apologize if it feels that way... I hope you will understand that for the past x years my success such as it is, has depended on my doing things that you don't seem to agree with. I think I have attempted as best I can to explain what it is that I am doing. It occurs to me however that in doing so, I am in a sense giving up my edge....I think I will stop at this point. Sorry but I think I have gone as far down this road as I care to.. Best of luck to you Steve

Now this last comment is something that I can work with....yes institutions have to move money at intervals in time, and they don't do it every day....that is why I use the concept of standard distribution when I trade....simply put I like to wait until I see price move to an extreme and then I try to find favorable entry. Sorry I can't be more specific but there are ways to find favorable entry intraday, and I teach my students how to do it consistently (4 days out of 5). This has little to do with institutional participation, and everything to do with defining the concept of value on an intraday basis. Hope some of these answers are helpful to you...and if you are having a drink or two...hey good for you man, I am going to open a beer and relax myself.... Best of luck to you Steve

I am going to close up shop and go have dinner in a few minutes but I wanted to comment on this because I am trying to get my students to understand the following vitally important concept; After they learn the tools of the trade After they learn to manage risk After they learn to plan their trades After they learn how to enter and take profit They still have to learn how to act aggresively, with discipline and control After alll these years it is clear to me that, the ability to act in a controlled, disciplined, yet aggressive manner.....is what separates big winners from those who grind it out day after day, or win one day, only to give it back the next...

Yes, some folks have a naturally wide bandwidth and can do impressive things with it. What interests me is that you suggest that you have "seen" and written some very advanced software, and yet the indicator(s) you are presenting here cannot normalize its resolution, and you mention that one of your products might provide signals "up to 7 minutes early"? " There seems to be some inconsistency between what you say you have seen (and written yourself) and what you are showing us.