steve46

The moving averages method simply does not adapt quickly to accomodate significant changes in volatility....especially for the intraday time frame..Keltner is a bit better but still no cigar (in my opinion)... What does work is Bollinger Bands properly applied...because (obviously) they respond quicly to changes in local volatility. After a long period of testing, I am using them in my class with very nice results.... I think the bottom line is that people have to take the time to research and learn about the technical issues. Most will not committ to that kind of effort, because it requires a delay between the time you start and any possible improvement...I have been working on this for almost 8 months on and off, and only now seeing the benefits.... Edit Swanson you are one of the few who posts, then reads the responses and thanks me for trying to add value to the conversation. I appreciate that...here is a chart of tonight's Bollinger Band reversal trade...the mechanism is simple....you wait for price to test the BB and then move in your desired direction...(of course there is more to it, but I leave that to your discretion). What I like about it is that you know quickly if you are wrong...In my Globex class, we are looking at about 72.9% favorable entries (and outcomes) using this method over nearly 170 data points. We are in forward testing at this point. Good luck Steve

One lesson that this teaches is that activism is necessary if you want to have a voice in government or within a company whose shares you own..If you want to be heard, you have to vote and/or you have to participate in the process. Quite a few folks do nothing and then complain about the results when it is too late. I am guessing that no one really monitored what Corzine was doing, or they might have raised questions about it long before this event. What does that say about the board of directors?.... about shareholders and bondholders alike?

If the gentleman did something illegal, he will be prosecuted....I am sure there are many who will want him to pay for anything that he MAY have done wrong...other than that my own interest is very limited....I have no equity or debt interest and my association with the parent firm (E D & F Man) ended long years ago.. Those of us who actually work in the business view these events philosophically. It happens....it happened to Refco, and now some years later, it is happening to MF Global... I hope you have a clear understanding of my position now. Thank you

The imbalances depend on the high touch market and market conditions...so it is more likely to happen at the tail end of a trend day. Generally speaking if the high touch desks have a lot of business to do, they will be motivated to move size near the end of the day, but before close of cash. That is why the trade occurs at around 1230 hours ET (US time)

Check out Gregory Morris Book "Candlestick Charting Explained" Morris did a statistical study of candlestick patterns that may help those interested in using candles. Best Regards Steve

Okay so clearly you have a short term memory problem...you may want to see a physician and get that checked out... What I said (to paraphrase) is that "winners take risks, while the rest stand around and talk trash"....and here (once again) one can see just how true that is... Clearly in this instance the gentleman has lost his bet....so by definition he is (for the moment) a loser....on the other hand....he can change that....and for traders this may be an important issue as we are ALL losers at some point when we trade.....the possibility always exists that he will find a way to re-define himself and get back on the right side at some point in the future. I wish everyone at MFGLOBAL the best of luck and better times ahead. Steve

Its actually quite simple, the CEO is put there by the company's board of directors...At that point he is entitled to direct the company in whatever way he/she sees fit...those are the rules....You may not like it, shareholders may not agree with all his decisions....even those among the board of directors may not agree or like his actions....if that were the case, they should have ACTED to curtail his activities...by voting him out.... This is the way the rules are structured sir or madam....I didn't write the rules...but unlike some here I do understand them.... Now as to whether his actions were morally correct, ethically correct, or by whatever metric the rest of you wish to apply....that is YOUR perfect right....be my guest....I suggest at this point it is water under a bridge....unless the gentleman is found to have done something illegal, the game is over...Just as MFGLOBAL came in to buy REFCO....now someone else will come in to buy MFGLOBAL'S assets.....

Since most of you will not make money no matter whose "room" you are in I would suggest you rethink what you are doing If you want someone to simply tell you when to buy and when to sell, any of these rooms will provide essentially the same experience, and that is that you will probably lose money...why?... well most of these folks have a system that works periodically then does not....even the best of them goes through periods of drawdowns...and because most of you have small accounts, even a modest drawdown will knock you out of the game.... Having tried to teach students for a while now I have come to the conclusion that it is rare, to find that combination of a system that fits most students...(simple enough that they can concentrate on just a few setups).....works consistently so that they don't get down on themselves when they go through a losing streak, and yet produces enough profit to encourage them to continue...and of course the final problem is that eventually you still have to learn to do it YOURSELF...because sooner or later the person calling the trades is going to be gone.... I think I have simplified my own system to the point that my students can do this, however I have not found a solution to the "attitude" issues and "lack of committment" that students bring with them to the classes....Clearly people THINK they want to do this, but what I have found is that in the end, when they find out what a grind this business is....they really don't want it...what they want is the money....without having to do what it takes (and it takes a lot) to put themselves in a position to make it. I do this every day folks...have for years, and I think this is about the most truthful statement you will read about this situation. Good luck to you all Steve

Another nice 1230 reversal, and like the previous one, it occurred about 6 minutes early....but hey no one's perfect. You know the interesting thing about these "undocumented" reversals is.....that they work just as well as those are "documented" (the result of an indicator).....they seem to happen often enough to be tradable and the money you make spends just the same way.... Best of luck everyone...

Well then lets ask something else. How often do you milk your goats? Thank you Steve

So the primary issue on the open is the re-pricing of risk if Greek citizens do not ratify the bailout....(that is the worst case, and it is generally anticipated) Asian and German markets re-priced this evening as did much of Europe. German Bunds will continue to see quite a move as will the US treasuries. There could be some forced selling in the bonds as margin calls get activated later in the day (about 10:30am PST). I suspect the open will continue the move down until after the report release. depending on that release we may see a bump up and then continuation down to the new risk level. I continue to be short the market until they make me pay up Good luck folks\ Steve

Okay well all very sound advice So far this evening markets are acting about as we might expect. Selling on the bad news that Greece will hold a referendum on the plan to bail them out......This is perceived as "negative" in that if the Greek citizens decide to vote the plan down, they will be back to square one..and the delay will likely cause a disorderly default, possibly leading to Greece's abandonment of the Euro (at the extreme).... What I have noticed is that the scheduling of the referedum is likely to put off any additional action until after Christmas....that may be a good thing for the Greek Prime Minister who is under fire for putting in an austerity program that is decimating Greek civil society...In other words the gentleman is trying to save his ass. As regards MFGlobal, we now know that money is missing from segragated accounts and this is like pouring gasoline on the fire....what could have been resolved quietly and simply is going to take time while the SEC auditors find that money and then move to indict people if it is warranted. Of course it is always possible that the problem is sloppy bookkeeping but only time will tell. This evening markets have declined in an orderly fashion, making it relatively easy to get on board the short bus. All you had to do was find a place to get short and hold on....My training says we look for a reversal now (at 4am) as I have pointed out before...this the time based pivot for my system to go long so I am trading around a base position looking to generate a few bucks here and there.... So far no problems executing however around the midnight hour I did have an interesting moment as my automated update program decided to let Microsoft do some housekeeping and shut me down.....hah....fortunately my software hooked me back up to my positions without much delay.... Just another day in paradise. Good luck everyone

There are many ways to trade profitably For the Christmas holiday I would like to generate some extra cash so I am going back to my roots trading the overnight market The attached capture is my screen setup....As you can see, at first glance it is simple with three screens...DAX and then two ES screens showing different time frames....I read the DAX for general direction and trade one of the two shorter time frames depending on a couple of variables Not going to put on a seminar but just want to suggest that the orginal poster look to simpilify, test carefully to make sure you actually HAVE an edge, then after you have sim traded successfully, simply aim to trade with discipline (take all the trades, stay with solid risk management and make sure to take profits and do not under any circumstances let a profit turn into a loss). After you resolve the technical issues, success is all about your ability to perform consistently.... Good luck

Thanks both of you for confirming my comment...

Well regardless of what others may think of him, the gentleman was CEO of MF Global. You don't elect yourself to that position. He had the balls to make the bet...and unfortunately it didn't go his way....so he loses and his company goes broke...thats how this business is supposed to work. No more of this "too big to fail" crap.... Most people do not know that when the bonds (still trading) for MF Global were issued, buyers requested that they include a key employee clause so that if Corzine were to leave they would receive additional compensation. The game has always been played this way...and before this MF Global bought the remaining interests of Refco when THEY went bust.....to be sure its unpleasant for those who trusted the gentleman to keep the ship afloat but if it had worked out, most of you would have applauded the gentleman's business accumen, never knowing the extent of the risk he had assumed. Winners take risk...sometimes they win, other times they lose....while the rest stand on the sidelines and talk trash...

There are few secrets in this world In terms of consistent profitability, these patterns work best in conjunction with both time based pivots and areas of supply and demand. Context is always critical...that is what I have learned to do and what I teach others to do...recognize context. Finally, once a person learns to anticipate these patterns, they still have to execute in a disciplined way....from my observations, this is the limiting factor for most folks. The ability to take the trade.....to stay in the trade long enough for their edge to kick in...and to take profits in a disciplined way.....I think these are the critical differences between the professional and the hobbyist...one makes it work consistently, the other finds it difficult or is unwilling to do what it takes to get to the goal line. Good luck folks Steve

Well I worked a high touch desk for almost 15 years and I would never sleep while my orders execute....but to each his own I suppose This simple concept seems to work well. I use a longer term chart (15 minutes) to find a primary trend for the overnight market. I use a shorter time frame (in this case 5 minutes) to orient my entries to the primary trend. I monitor Europe and Asian throughout the evening. I go to dinner and when I return I usually find one primary entry upon which I can build a position or scalp as I wish)....tonight was quite easy, because of Japan's move to manage the Yen and Barclay's earnings report....both events anticipated by professionals and offering good support for the evening's action (early move down, followed by a reversal after Barclays report).... Ultimately we have a continuing problem as the EU tries to find cash support for its rescue program. Several offers from Russia and China, but both have "strings attached"....ultimately EU has succeeded in kicking the can a bit further down the road (about as far as Christmas holiday I would say) and then we expect a bit of a problem with Spain and Italy...Oh well.

As you may anticipate I am biased towards Kiev's work...Over time I would say a friendship of sorts developed between us and I think that had as much to do with my "improvement" as anything....so it is probably fair to say that you would do well to try to find a good professional to make friends with as well....Needless to say I have read all of his books...but not knowing you I think its impossible to know which you would benefit most from...I would simply pick one and start reading (slowly)....part of the benefit of reading a skilled person's work is the meaning that YOU bring to his words after you have had time to think about the subject. This example may help...I had trouble pulling the trigger even though I had a very good systematic approach that worked profitably for others in my office....Kiev said simply...none of that matters...what you need subconciously is to KNOW that the system works by going back through the data yourself (doing your homework). Instead of taking someone else's word that a system works, or interpreting an automated backtest....going back through the data....seeing how many winners and losers in a row you have (and why the trades failed)....seeing HOW the trade moves when it is a big winner, how it retraces or retests significant highs or lows....just seeing how price behaves over and over while you go through the data will give you the confidence you need to trade it the right way...otherwise you won't be able to stay with a trade long enough for your edge to kick in.... He was right and from that point forward I always do at least some manual backtesting before trading a system live. hope this helps Steve

I could do all of that Sir or Madam The blue bands represent areas of previous supply and demand The logic (rules for placement) like the logic to your own indicators is propietary, however it is relatively simple.... The broader logic to entry relates to behavior that many professionals have observed (apparently not you however)....The"afternoon specs" are time based...as mentioned in the post the signal for the trade occurs at (or near to) 1200 hours then again at or around 1230 hours....Pacific Standard Time....this is why it is called a reversal....

Oh well why not Here is the overnight chart very easy trade I guess the main point (for me) is that astute traders can make money whether you have "gains" in the overnight or not....its a matter of "seeing" the market behavior and identifying patterns that you can exploit..this sequence occurs quite often. Best to all Steve

Since my last markets continue to rally as expected past the yearly open at 1263.50 Next target for me (as mentioned previously) is 1300 and then 1373, and finally 1400, this would put a nice bonus check in the hands of my colleagues at the high touch desks. Today was a range bound day with a nice "clean up" trade at end of day Although I am attaching just the end of day reversal, the overnight was a lay up with the same range bound entries above and below Good luck Folks Steve

By coincidence I use a similar sequence that I call the "afternoon reversal" Works on a tight time frame and is very simple to trade Today was nearly picture perfect with the first trade kicking off at noon PST and the reversal (called the "clean up") taking off from runway #1 at just after 12:30pm Good luck everyone Steve

I find this comment very interesting. From my recent experience trying to teach others to trade as professionals I see folks struggling with similar issues. knowing that emotionally we are more similar than we are different I find myself suggesting ways that my students can identify and give form to the emotional challenges they face.... With regard to the idea of issues never really healing I can concur. Human behavior being what it is, the tendency is to bury our emotional issues hoping they "go away"....of course they do not and trading is the arena where they are likely to be activated and come back to haunt us (sorry couldn't resist the halloween imagery)....ordinarily I would start the next sentence with "I think", but at this point in time, "I am sure" that the primary reason so many fail to obtain success as professionals is related unresolved emotional issues, and if there is a secondary reason, it is the lack of persistence or the unwillingness of the candidate to continue to work on themselves.... Good luck folks Steve

While the technical issues can be solved mechanically, the psychological issues are harder to deal with. As mentioned in one of my early posts on this site I had the opportunity to work with Dr. Ari Kiev (since passed away) and that experience was a real turning point in my career. Not only did I learn to deal with my own issues but I also learned how this market can "work on you" in such a way as to make you distrust your judgement, even when you have a good system....For traders who have problems either executing or staying in a trade long enough to profit, I suggest starting by reading the work of Dr. Kiev and Mark Douglas... Hope this helps Steve

Have no idea what "everyone does"....I simply do what I was trained to do...and it has worked for more than 15 years. As for taking breakouts on low volume...well that is problematic....at least for the futures markets..your better bet is to look to fade extremes, especially on the first and perhaps second test....I have done this and will continue to do so until they make me pay up...So far I am winning that game. For those who might be willing to take a shot at breakouts in general, I would advise waiting for the break to "take out" the upper limit and then hook back and re-test...that is a higher probability trade (in my opinion)... The attached chart shows the daily time frame and for the last several months, fading the extremes of the distribution has been a winner. Good luck