steve46

Just for kicks I thought I would post this chart of the same date but using my tools....price action and supply/demand Also I don't use tick charts...they are useless for visualizing momentum..... The attached chart (for the same time frame as the original poster) shows the gap down from the previous session, which for me is a gift....immediately I am looking for a retrace back toward the previous action...the only question is where do you get on board..... If you scan left....You can see the left most green arrow....I call that a "demonstration of momentum"....look how price moves with conviction from that point......when I see price retrace back to that level again....you can bet I am on it.....and once again price tests and reacts the same way....a plus 10 pt move....simple.... The nice thing about this kind of market is the symmetry it exhibits...in the afternoon, as price fails and retraces back down through that long entry....you can see (I hope) a nice short entry which also delivers a +10 point move.... On a day like this, I don't see the need to look for other players......you just look at how price is reacting at a level and wait for your chance to jump on board.....price action at specific times and momentum. I'll stick with this

Okay zdo thats much appreciated. Now if we could clear away some of the jargon I would like to ask a couple of questions as follows Based on your attendance, would you say that you see your setups more clearly or quickly? Are you more confident when you enter a trade? Are you better able to manage risk? For example would you say that you are quicker to cut your losses as a result of your seminar training? Rather than comments that mean something to those immersed in a Jungian based world I would prefer to know in simple terms (consider me slow if you will) whether you see improvement in these areas, or just as importantly, if you think (as I believe you are saying) that you will need more time to realize the benefits of this training. Not interested in judging but in knowing what the "real world" benefits of the training are.... Thanks Steve

Rande Like many here, I have no idea what (if any) benefit your clients receive from attending....and whether the benefit is immediate or seen later as they trade...? So perhaps you might want to ask your clients to post (maybe every few months) to let us know how they are doing, and whether they see any improvement as a result of attendance at this seminar. Thank you Steve

Well Bob, I would not take it too seriously....I would guess your late father in law had high hopes for his daughter and perhaps unrealistic expectations about you.. For myself I have a few projects I hope to complete... Good luck to you.

The premise is that the big players have some advantage that can be used by simply piggybacking their positions.....in my opinion that strategy isn't workable.... This (institutional trading) is a world that I am very familiar with, having "been there" for many years....I am not interested in talking about my employer but will provide a snapshot that may help those interested to avoid that road First, institutions have money...much more than any retail trader could mobilize....that is a given, and they employ a number of strategies from HFT to arb and they take the position of "the house" by matching clients to risk vehicles upon request (for a fee of course)... The short story is that some of these concepts work well, however they are volatile and retail clients could never (on their own) stand the swings. Finally there are time periods where institutions do not do well and that is simply the fact...not my opinion. Here is a recent report that sets out the facts about recent performance of Goldman's prop trading group Goldman Sachs Traders Lost Money 21 Days in Third Quarter, Most Since It used to make sense to shadow Goldman's positions in equities markets....but I leave it to others to judge for themselves For my own trading I use concepts that I learned from institutions, however I pick and choose ( I use the concept of "time based pivots for example") and am very careful about risk (as can be seen in my thread "An institutional look at S &P Futures" in the emini forum). From my point of view, in a given period of time, simply following the positions of any institution (without knowing what you are doing) can cost you money, more than any retail trader can afford. In my opinion there is no short cut to learning to read the markets on your own... For those interested I will be winding down my activities here on this site in the next week. So ask your questions now while before I move on... Good luck

Just for the heck of it, thought I would post this example from tonight's Globex market Ironically I used to make my living trading the Globex market, and when I stopped I thought man, this is going to be much better, no more overnights/sleeping during the day...didn't think I would miss it until I stopped.. Anyway the Globex is a different animal altogether....actually it is a collection of markets opening one after the other throughout the evening into the morning and the open of US markets. To trade this market, we divide the larger market into several individual markets based on each "primary".....Not here to put on a seminar so to cut to the chase. I follow each primary market as we move through time, at the same time I am looking at the ES on two time frames, one longer, one shorter... Attached you can see the shorter (2 minute) and the volatility based entry earlier in the evening Nowadays, I don't stay up all night, but I do stay in the market until bedtime...and yes I do have a monitor in my bedroom (got one in my living room, kitchen and outside on my patio as well).. In the overnight market I am looking for a minimum 5 points, and I always leave something in place in case it runs. Good luck

and just now on the news that Berlusconi is out.....the market reacts as expected

Here we are at lunchtime and yes it is a news driven day....mostly participants concerned not with Greece, but with what is happening with Berlusconi and Italy....they need to remove him and get a budget in place (and it looks like that will happen here shortly)....the political vacuum however is a drag on the markets. Looks to me as though participants are moving to the German Bund and to industrial "B" paper because the spread is improving there. The attached charts show some nice time based opportunities....and as always traders have a couple of choices, go with the intraday trend, go counter if you have a way of seeing the reversals or stand aside while the market waits for Italy to act.... I put some bands in on these charts because I am experimenting with them. What I notice is that they make it easier for the trader to see intraday variation in volatility. Personnally I like to eyeball the patterns but this is one way that a trader trying to learn to use volatility can obtain a set of "training wheels" so to speak...Notice how price moves outside the band then back in just prior to the periodic reversals....now the obvious question becomes "how do you know which of the reversals to take"? and for me the answer is that I read the tape, and look for confirming data from the DAX....and of course there are other data inputs that help (once you are in the trade) including $VOLD/ADD and TBP.

My experience is that most of the interest in these solutions comes from folks who don't know how to trade, and are either unwilling or unable to pay for their education....Generally speaking those who do know how to trade find themselves trading on their own or with others who also know how to trade... I do share my charts in real time with my students...and after that I sometimes publish them here....So far that is working quite well...no complaints from students and since there is no obligation to post here, I can do so when I have sufficient time...So far, this works for me. Good luck with your idea Steve

Slept late today, but the market gave me a second chance to get in The attached chart shows a reversal pattern that might have legs (we'll see) The reversal is characterizied by volatility outside the normal (to the downside) followed by retrace up and then a "hesitation" move, that we call "test, test, test" before taking off to the upside...thos "up" tests are best seen when you read the tape (they register as tick lows except the last one, which is usually a higher high (if the move is to the upside)... We were taught to interpret this market logic as part of a bigger sequence called reversal...continuation....trend....and (yes) reversal once again to complete the circle.

Saw some of these other posts... Certainly there is a mythology that everything is "in the chart"...therefore you need only look at the chart and see where it is going up, sideways, down.....and for the one dimensional thinkers in the crowd, I guess that is the solution you end up with. Unfortunately that just doesn't "get it"....first a chart is just a display of data.....what happens in front of that...is that PEOPLE WHO CONTROL A LOT OF MONEY MAKE DECISIONS TO BUY OR SELL....THEN THE CHART IS CREATED... I don't expect everyone to understand, but if one can obtain a good understanding of what motivates those people to buy or sell, you really have something...One of the purposes of Time-Based Pivots is to show how participants are motivated to act BEFORE the chart is created...If you know what participants are likely to do at specific times (and prices) then you have an edge over folks who simply watch a chart and then have to decide whether to react (or not) to what they are seeing. While I were addressing this, I remember that Richard Dennis was asked once "Is technical analysis dead"?.....he is reported to have smiled and said "I hope not".....I think that about sums it up for me as well.,

How can you "know" anything? I think you have to rely on your training, and your track record of betting correctly on your analysis of the situation. I was trained by skilled professionals and when I look back on my own experience I see that I am generally correct....

In my thread "An Institutional look at S&P Futures" I introduced the idea of pivots based on time ("time-based pivots" or TBP). Essentially the idea is that the market is moved by institutions that want to reach profit goals based on time (yearly, quarterly, monthly weekly and daily open high and low). As we move through time, each period assume more (or less) importance....so for example....as we reach the end of a week (say thursday or friday afternoon) and price is near to that time period's open, you may see the market test and then move up off of that price as institutions try to defend it....the same would be true of the end of month, and quarter year for instance.

By observing how each market reacts to news of the day.

Context is the framework of data that surrounds the market. For example the context of the current market is primarily news driven, and that news is mostly about the European Debt Crisis. On any day that can change as events take place, and/or as economic reports are released introducing new information into the markets.

The significance of market bias (direction) depends on the context...off the open, it is critical...and I spend a lot of time and resource trying to determine what that bias will be Why? Because when I get it right it is possible that I will be in the trade all day long, which is what I want to do... If we are talking any other time of day, then it is questionable because other factors enter into the equation, such as time of day, news, programmed execution, price action of other markets, and several other factors. At other times I rely on tests of TBP and other factors including local volatility and momentum (as seen on the tape). Good luck folks Steve

So I guess I will just say this...worrrying about the nominal time frame is what retail traders do, as if the time frame offers some edge.....it doesn't... I use two time different time frames and it is the offset between the two that provides part of my edge...I leave it to others to do the research... Good luck folks.

With small size, you want to split your split your position into thirds...(if you could trade 600 shares this will be easier to work out) So you look at your chart and find approximate profit targets based on your expectation (I have specific time-based profit targets for my portfolio). You could liquidate either one third (if you are optimistic about the future for that issue) or two-thirds if you are less "happy" with the perfomance. Good luck

I use several time frames....today I was using 45 seconds Also I use two charts to make my decisions, DAX and ES I am experimenting with an offset between the two....in this case I was using 1 min on the DAX and 45 seconds on the ES,. And Negotiator I apologize for the previous post....I see that I missed your point (44''s) For me the 44's are given..they tested an inset on my node system and that is considered a strong signal to trade...so yes I took them...the 45s are also valid so I can take them however as mentioned I will only take two of three tests. Best Regards Steve

One solution is to leave a small position in place (with a GTC order) in case it runs. If you place a stop, your worst case is that you pay commission and take a little off your profit. Your best case is you make additional profit. The benefit to you if you use that rule with discipline is that after any time period (say a month) you look at your results, you may be motivated to always keep an extra unit in place. Good luck

Here's my chart.....If by 44's you mean the tests of 1244 then yes I took two of them Generally speaking I will take two of three tests....call it superstition, but I am inclined to think that often a third test is going to fail. So I passed on the last one which was actually a double tap. Oh and Josh a good trade is any trade that makes money....unlike the Olympics, you don't win a medal for pointing your toes on the dismount. For me, the goal is to find repeatable non-random behavior...and if can understand it and find a way to anticipate it....then I am going to trade it as long as it is profitable to do so. Couldn't care less whether the day is "dominated" by one side or the other. You all have a nice weekend. Steve

Yes retests of supply generally provide good opportunity....in addition to the retest I am reading the tape and looking for agreement from DAX. Sorry for the brief reply I am doing several things at once here.....yes I have several concepts that I monitor intraday. They are mostly based on volatility and momemtum.

Here are two interesting patterns...the first is a simple reversal based on imbalance of demand at a node. The second is a continuation of that trade (a pattern that repeats often) The way I learned these was relatively straightforward. First I observed the pattern...and by that I mean that I looked for repetitive patterns associated with reversals (and found a number of them)...through the process of testing, I found that these patterns are not always exact however a patient person can eventually see how price tests and retests before "taking off" prior to a trend move...so the sequence of test/retest is the operational concept that I base the trade on. These kinds of patterns occur every day...I would estimate that I see about 8 to 10 of them almost every trading day and of those, about half are what I would characterize as high probability entry opportunities.

A repetitive pattern of behavior at this time of day An imbalance of demand A tape that shows buyers or sellers coming in with sufficient size to move the market $VOLD and $ADD in agreement DAX agrees Yes there is always context and data to evaluate. I have mentioned these items many times previously. Several times in this thread alone Now of course there are nuances, however I am not here to put on a seminar but to suggest that this behavior warrants a closer look. If I were a struggling trader looking to improve I would start by observing that this is happening periodically and try to figure out why...Then I would look for ways to anticipate that behavior. A person might simply be aware that it could happen and look for an entry that aligns with the system that they are currently using. There are many ways to trade productively... Yes negotiator I am in agreement with you on this Good luck to everyone

This was an exceptional day....the Globex overnight was full of opportunity and the RTH session was the same Here is today's 12:30 reversal I won't be posting these again Good luck folks