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steve46
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Everything posted by steve46
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Two (2) spikes down off the open today...the first at 6:40am....the 2nd just after 7am PST Previous day's open at 1303.50....what was so important about the previous day's open In class, as price moved down to test the value area low, some asked why not take this long and I said look at the tape...the bid's not holding.....I am waiting for a test of the next number (1303.50).....some took it anyway...some did not...thats what makes markets so interesting
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Why do you care about the previous day's value area high and low? For most retail traders, the answer is you read it in a book and believed it to be true....in my case I tested the data (downloaded historical data and tested the behavior)....and based on the results I trade on it. Edit You know Josh what matters in this business is that you pay attention to details and become a good observer....if you just scroll back in THIS thread, you can see where I posted as we came to the end of the year....congratulating some of my former associates on hitting the yearly open at 1263+.....why do you think that people find that price important nearly a full year later? For me its both puzzling and interesting that folks don't put it together.....this is a market dominated by professional interests, and we don't get paid all that much unless we hit our targets...(and the biggest target of all is the yearly open)....every time period builds on the next......in order to hit your yearly target you have to hit your quarterly target.....to hit your quarterly target you want to hit your monthly target....and so on....is some of this starting to make sense?
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and here is the resolution to the trade I have some chores to do outside my office today, so I took profit just under 5 points and folded my tent for the day.... As you can see, this one worked out pretty good Obviously it isn't allways a storybook ending, but this is what I am shooting for.....low stress, simple rule set. point and click. I hope you understand when I say that I won't be posting this stuff again. Good luck Steve
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Josh, Here is a follow up on yesterday's question Today (Monday 23 Jan) around the noon hour (my time) I am waiting for my scheduled setup to occur.....and at 11:53 or so....there it is....a reversal pattern that I see all the time....now there are three things I need to trade...first I need to see this happen at or near a supply demand node...second I need to see it happen at a specific time, and lastly I need to have confluence On this one I had all three data points in line and I read the tape...and I take the trade the next time I see a favorable tape...."normally" I might say that I have no idea whether it will be a winner or loser....strictly speaking that is true....but really I have been doing this for a long time and I am pretty sure this is going my way (meaning it is worth at least 2-3 points maybe more) The part YOU were interested in is the confluence provided by my "time-based pivots"....just above the green arrow, which is my point of entry....that price is 1308...and my time based pivot worksheet (which I fill out on Sunday, then update each day) shows the previous day's open at 1308.25 I don't think I can make it clearer than that..... Good luck Steve Edit...by the way, from my point of view this has nothing to do with "value"
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Well I can only talk about the way I was trained....The open is considered THE most important price within specific time periods....those time periods are called "time-based pivots" as I wrote in my thread on institutional trading. For each time period the open is the most important price. So the hierarchy is simple, for the year the opening price in January is the most important. For the quarter, that open is most important, for the month, the opening price on the first trading day is "it".......and so on....as each time period comes to a close, that opening price takes on more significance. Its really pretty simple. Good luck in the markets Steve Edit...sorry...to answer your question. For me the weekly open is Monday at 6:30am PST
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As I mentioned a while back, I was helped by Dr. Ari Kiev when I first started out in the business. The gentleman had no first hand experience trading.... and again as I have mentioned in previous posts, the way that I gauge whether a person can help me is 1. He/she demonstrates an understanding of the problem(s) I need to solve 2. He/she offers comments that cut to the core of the issue(s) 3. Based on my interaction with that person, I see that I am closer to reaching my goals Thats it for me....if a person can help me and I see these three (3) points addressed, then I don't care whether they are psychogists, psychiatrists, or selling insurance as long as they get the job done.....after all this is a results-oriented profession.
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Okay, well the subject is not simple.... I notice that some folks use price action in relation to a moving average as a signal to exit trades....using that method you would pick an MA (say 20 period moving average) and once you are in the trade you stay with it unless or until price "takes out" the moving average....Personally I don't care for that method because I know that is where some traders look to initiate entries. Just throwing out ideas here... On the futures side, I know that institutional traders look to hit time based targets as points where they can either add to positions or (again depending on the time) exit and take profit. My time based pivots are simple to interpret and seem to work (once you understand how time affects price action)...institutions have a longer time frame approach so that may or may not help you. In my thread on institutional trading I remember posting several examples where price tested a weekly open and then reversed (to the tick) as an example. Finally, if you look carefully at my posted charts, the first thing you notice are the blue "supply/demand nodes" (a lot of them)....I put them in on Sunday mornings....during the week, when price tests a node, I look to see if I have a number at that price (or nearby)....if I do (this is what I call confluence) and I am in a trade...I monitor the tape to see if we are going to take out the number (and reverse) or continue....I have been doing it for a long while now and for me it works pretty well. Can't go into the details but this is how I was trained.... For me this is all integrated into my experience of many years....if you are a "do it yourself" kind of person, it is going to take you some time to figure out what works best.... I wish you the best of luck trading. Steve
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There are a number of ways to manage exits....you can use historical ATR for this time of day... you can simply trail a stop (for retail traders the chandelier method by LeBeau seems to work pretty well)..My preferred method is to establish a position early in the day and leave a small remainder in play throughout the day...I also read the tape...
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Last two trades today...for me the problem is staying awake....as I am showing students how to trade the overnight market. My solution is to isolate two trades in the AM and then two more in the PM session....the attached chart shows the PM session trades....the blue rectangles are put in place the previous Sunday morning....and represent supply and demand. The upper arrow was what I consider a layup. Price took out the previous day's open then retested at a critical time (last hour).....the price pattern is what I call a temporary imbalance.. I can take the trade "as is" just off the pattern, however I prefer to have the confluence of the previous day's open as well. I am always reading the tape (just habit) but on low vol days I think you have to have more than that to get consistent results. When I was in the business I used to go home early, but no more....I see now that the last hour is providing good odds if you have a solid premise to trade off of.
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So item 1 Do you believe this sample size is significant......I can see the time period, but what is the actual number of data points? and what leads you to believe that you have a "a significant data sample". Do you account for the element of stationarity (if so.....how) Your classification of bull vs bear markets uses the 200 period MA (bull market above/bear market below)....what evidence leads you to believe that markets exhibit symmetrical behavior? Thanks
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I seem to remember a lot of negative comments about Velez....I know he wrote a book about equity trading at one point and had a series of unsuccessful commercial ventures....when I say unsuccessful, I mean that they were not successes for the clients....I am pretty he made excellent money from them....You probably want to google for additional citations...
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COT is of limited use to the retail crowd....Steven Briese's book is excellent on this subject...and if I can remember the name of the one trader I used to know who used it profitably I will post it later With regard to who has the secret sauce....this is simple...I don;t think there are any "secrets" per se....ultimately all you need is an edge....I found mine.... Good luck finding yours.
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You can't know who is really moving markets by cumulative volume, delta, or any processing of volume that retail traders have access to....sorry.... You can reverse the process and know that in general the top tier institutions are looking to move markets in a direction and you can even narrow down the focus to specific time periods....that is how I use my time based pivots.......the vendors don't like this.....for example I received a couple of nasty comments from Urma Blume among others asking me not to post in "their threads"....hahahaaa...right.... So its up to the individual....frankly I am not interested a long dialogue about it...you can read my thread "An Institutional look at S&P Futures" in the Emini Forum and if you have the ability to think critically it is all there in front of you....I use it to this day....and it works....because it is based on the motivation of professionals to make money....unlike using indicators, that motivation isn't going to change... PM me if you need any clarification on the basics...and once again for the record....although I am listed as a vendor.....I don't have anything to sell....my class is full.... Good luck
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Back to work Missed this one, but it is important to note that entry is off of a reversal pattern with confluence from the previous daily high (one of our time based pivots)
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Close to lunch hour in NY and I am going to close this one out and get something to eat pocket change...back in the afternoon
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and here's another nice reversal pattern.....a bit close to lunch hour and in a thin market but valid nevertheless.
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Gratifying to me that if you read my initial posts on "An Institutional look at S&P Futures"...there were several negative comments from folks who thought the idea of "time based pivots" was nonsense....and that the concept of professionals "marking the market up" was comical...wonder if any of them are trading anything more substantial than girl scout cookies now....I am sure they would suggest this is just random chance....whatever it is, if you used it to trade, you made money...
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and here we are tagging 1263.....bringing the markets back to their (institutional) target for 2011 "Grus gott" to my mates in the Zurich HTGS office...nice job boys and girls.
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Easy couple of points on a nice little basing pattern....scan left and you see the (unsuccessful) probe down to try to find sellers...generally speaking I am going to enter right after that little move down fails..... Thin trading today so I will be in small size but I expect a continued move up as long as the Italian bond news stays low key...
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Perhaps a comment might help you here....although I don't know WB....my experience with patterns and timing signals is similar...I use a specific pattern...and once I see that pattern I wait for the entry signal that always occurs right after it.....If that entry signal doesn't occur or isn't correct I don't trade.... I "PROVED" it to myself by testing to see what the outcome was for each pattern and entry signal pair......once I had enough data (I require a minimum of 400 data points) I started trading my capital. Testing the pattern and entry signal is important because it generates a profile that you can use to tell you how your system is performing...conversely it may (depending on your skills) tell you if and when you system is failing and needs to be re-assessed... As an example, my system tests showed me that my entry signal has two parts....after the initial entry I can often take partial profit of two points.....then I can expect that 63% of the time, the market will re-test within 3 ticks of my entry....if the market continues down past that point, it is a signal that the trade may not be working...then if I have taken partial profit I have the option of waiting (because I have a partial profit "cushion") or simply taking my two points and waiting for the next pattern to occur. You may want to do similar testing so that when you trade, you know how to manage the position. I hope this helps Steve
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Thanks Josh, Happy Holidays to you (and to all) I will keep my hand in the game through the week. Historically this has the potential to be profitable...and fairly low risk (except for the possible news event). Good luck
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Not bad at all Josh....risk is an individual thing, but as long as you can manage the give up, you're good to go. From a seasonal point of view, the odds of continuation up are pretty good (just my opinion) One thing I would point out, now that I am no longer a young man, I need to break up the day, otherwise I seem to be missing trade opportunities...So I trade the open and hope to get on board ONE (1) good entry....then I wait (and watch) for one more good trade (unless I am managing a trade that runs in my favor)....and I look for that second entry about one hour after the open....if I am lucky and get a second trade...I look to take profit at about the start of lunch hour in NY....I do this because I know that most of the players are gone (on a friday) in order to avoid traffic. The attached chart shows the final am trade and again it is a simple reversal entry....and then I just wait...either they take it up, or I am out (right about now), and done for the day...
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Yes I would have like to seen the European market respond a bit more positively... I think the pending vote (now successfully passed) for US payroll tax extension was weighing on market participants...because it required a full majority, if even one person had disented, the economic repercussions would have taken this news driven market down significantly...so once again people wait to see the result before committing capital... Here off the open we saw a nice mini basing pattern.....one probe down and then up we go just prior to the report release...timing was about right so this was an easy one to take..the trader had the option to get out prior to the housing report, or stay in (if they felt it would be a decent report) and take the final pop up..for those interested the darker blue band represents a reversal area..Previous Value Area High provided nice confluence for the trade I assume you guys take these right...after all market profile is your game.
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Well then nicely done Josh... As mentioned previously you can bet on an upward bias unless someone (Mr. Draghi for example) says something untoward...and then all bets are off...if however we have a mild news climate, there are lot of folks who would like to see this market move up to 1263+ within the next 24 hours.
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Very nice day, predictably upward bias because as mentioned institutions want to hit their numbers... Here is the late day example (they are all pretty much the same on this time frame)