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steve46
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Everything posted by steve46
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I said what I CAN a moment ago...if you re-read my last couple of posts...there is information there pertinent to what you are asking....I can't say more than that....I was trained to approach this (and all report situations) in a specific way....thats what I did...now I have to go back to work Best of luck to everyone Steve
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Unfortunately I am limited in what I can say about the report...(I am working with clients on this)...I can show my pre-position screen. Good luck today folks
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and here is nice follow up as price moves up to test Value Area High at 1323.50 Now the question is...do you take profit and reverse, or wait for price to take out VAH?
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Another nice Globex long entry at about 9pm PST This one was relatively easy to take because in addition to testing an underlying demand node, we had confluence of Value, and time (Singapore close to closing) So we take the trade, and watch the screen with one eye while we check out "Person of Interest" and "Mentalist" on TV.. We also watch our Bloomberg for news and scan the local news for econ reports. As with all good longs, it was preceeded by a move into wholesale territory, followed by a patterned response indicating a reversal. Once we see the response, we know that professional interests are going to be interested in buying that bargain and (hopefully) marking it up.
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There are several "pre-position" time periods for the Globex market one of which I WILL comment on The primary pre-position time frame for the US market usually extends from about 3:30 to 5am PST At that point, knowledgable participants "vote" by putting a position on.....some might speculate that institutions actually try to move the market prior to that time period so that they might get into favorable positions prior to specific events.... The reason we trade the Globex is that we have the experience necessary to know when to get involved and how to act. Regarding timing....markets "anticipate" specific events including economic reports and in this environment, meetings having to do with Euro monetary crisis. Because the world is so interconnected, you can assume that Global money institutions will wait for each event based on timing before they act so as to insure that they have all the data...most markets are waiting for Chairman Bernanke to speak before committing further funds to market. We placed our "bets" based on our view of world events several days ago....and then we trade around that basic position....our next action took place at 5am this morning and we did trade the open (and we are managing a position now). We expect a test of 1329 sometime after the lunch hour...and of course events can alter those expectations....so we simply watch (like the rest of you) and react to events as they happen. The attached chart shows the timing of our most recent long entry Hope this helps Steve
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Here we go, a much more interesting Globex open and early trade. First, we have a continuation move off the RTH close.....the important thing about this short trend move is that it "takes out" the VAL at 1320.75.....seeing this.....if you understand how this market moves, you wait for the retest.....and sure enough (see the first green arrow on the left) price comes back to test, staying there for about a half hour (remember this is the Globex market)....before taking off to the north... At this point (the red arrow) price runs out of gas at the lower boundary of our overhead supply node.....the "read" is very important....first you see the initial test at the boundary...then you see price test through trying to find buyers....but no interest.....this is the important part of any test of a level.....price tests, pushes through and fails....after a short retrace we get a "spike" up to match the previous high....once that spike comes back to close the candle....you have a nice low risk short entry....and as is characteristic of that failure, we then have a nice leisurely ride back down to retest value..... The retest comes back to value but does not come back to the tick (as it did before). Instead we get buyers coming back into the market just a bit sooner (see the next green arrow) and what you see is a more "typical" reversal pattern.....this one follows an algorithmic pattern that I have seen many times....and it produces a low risk long entry.... This market is all about "reading" and making sense of the data....if you have the skills its a walk in the park...if not....you probably have a sense of frustration.... Wishing everyone the best of luck Steve
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I like MP and Auction Market Theory just fine sir...I use it myself (when it applies)....unfortunately what trumps that data is the fact that markets are controlled by professionals (today) and the decisions that they make are informed NOT by Market Profile or Auction Market Theory, but by basic economic realities....and (in large part) to each participant's emotional response to news of the day... Once I learned how to use this approach to markets, I was able to continue to use Market Profile and Auction Market Theory and to put that data in its proper perspective.... and what I mean by that is this....I can use the data (I certainly trade off elements of Market Profile including Value)....and then when appropriate I watch the crowd trade off of it mechanically (without thinking it through) and I take the other side.... and I don't mean to be impolite...I enjoy the debate, but I need to get back to work. Best to all Steve
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Global Markets are all heavily correllated now with both commercials and institutionals trading primarily off the European news. I can only rely on my own training....I was long in the options market and outright from yesterday. There was no need to get long today at the close....and the traditional idea that long term investors are going to pay up to be in at the close doesn't apply. Those of us who make a living at this are mostly mark to market and are motivated to book profits early in the year. Based on my training if I am still interested in the close I would be looking for a pattern that reflects both automated execution and pros getting out...that pattern showed itself several times in the last hour...I certainly wouldn't step in front of that looking to be long at the close. and now I have to prepare for the Globex open... Good luck folks Steve
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??? Hello, always interesting to see how retail traders view the close..... I realize you think that you have to follow your volume and MP data, but really you're missing the important data...human behavior Sure its a two sided market and there are (almost) always buyers somewhere in the crowd, however...think for a moment...on a day like today, with low volume, most of it professional, and most of it long from the overnight, what do we need to do at (before actually) the close of cash? We (mostly) want to get flat....so on a day like this, where is the market likely to go in the last half hour or so?
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Well I am going to close this one here It worked out well but I really need to catch up on my sleep I will pass on tomorrow's open Good luck folks
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So there's seven points and I am really having a hard time keeping my eyes open.... anyway...as mentioned I am leaving a piece in there with a stop just below 1308 I need at least an hour sleep Good luck Steve
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and here is a follow-up on that Globex entry as with the previous post, I usually put the trade on, take partial profit at 2 or 3 and leave a piece in to run until I see a profit of 5 to 10 points (or close of Globex). Good luck folks Steve
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Another boring evening watching the Globex markets develop......and so I will post this example trade setup The attached chart shows the DAX on the left and the ES on the right....The DAX opened "Gap Down" however we saw no continuation...no acceleration toward a lower number....in fact the index stayed within a 10 point range....while the ES tested a value number (1304) We waited for the ES to display a reversal pattern that we know to be characteristic of programmed execution and institutional interest....once we see that it is just a matter of getting the right price on entry, then staying with the trade long enough for our edge to kick in... Once we are in....we keep on eye on the news (and we make a couple of phone calls) to make sure we are not going to get blindsided.... So far so good.
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I thought this might be interesting to some It is a chart displaying a time based reversal setup....I did not take this...I trade selectively in the afternoon and sometimes miss these setups As can be seen on the chart, the ES tested an underlying demand node, moved away and then retested....this is prototypical for a reversal....look over at the DAX and you can see that it was ahead of the ES, suggesting one of two things.....either the ES would have to "catch up" and move north or the DAX would have to reverse and head south...I read the tape to resolve that issue... Most of these trades are good for at least 2-3 points.....the preferred bet is to take a position and scale out at 2 or 3 as dictated by the tape, leaving at least one unit to run....Depending on the day and previous ATR I will often leave that last part in to the end of RTH....stop at B/E
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A simple, general comment First, its clear that finding good education that helps people to move consistently toward their goal is challenging.....there are few folks who know enough to help, and then there is the problem of teaching skills (some traders may have good knowledge but can't teach) I think the best advice I can give is as follows 1. Read, observe and learn the basics on your own....wait until you have enough background knowledge and experience to judge for yourself, whether a person, or a group can assist you toward your goal 2. Take the time to become familiar with a person before you enter into a business relationship. Observe them over a period of time....Aske for references of other customers that they have done business with. 3.. Ask if they offer a trial period so that you can see if the system they trade "fits" your temperment and resources 4. Make sure you have sufficient discretionary capital. You will take losses in the beginning so be prepared for drawdowns. 5. Be realistic....set goals that are reasonable and can be reached within a year....evaluate your progress regularly and if you aren't seeing success.....stop.. Good luck Steve
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A typical boring overnight market, so here is the chart showing price testing and retracing from the 1313 area What you see is the overhead supply (dark blue rectangle).....the dark blue color shows me that this is an area of supply imbalance.....as price tests that area, we look for a specific reversal pattern....The pattern itself reflects an algorithm that I found to be repetitive and predictive of future movement. I monitor world markets, news and pending economic reports during this time hoping to avoid getting slammed......It also helps that I can call my old colleagues overseas to get "look" at conditions from a different perspective.
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and this follow up to that post, where you can see the dilemma that trader face....do we "stay with" the trade or bail.....? for me the issue is pretty simple....you read the tape...and/or you rely on your previous tests of the data....(your stats).... If you read the tape....you can see (I can see) that the Tick, Vold/ADD and DAX are telling me to stay with it (for the moment anyway).....as buyers are overcoming sellers...that can change of course as participants make their decisions from the sidelines... Interestingly several folks trading along with me made their own decisions and watching the process you can see how much of it is related to individual psychology, rather than the system itself... Edit Forgot to say this and I think it is very important....the most important work I do is research and testing....and given that a trader has an edge....if you don't take the trades, or you don't "stay with" the position.....you are essentiallly randomizing your result.... Good luck Steve
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Having quite a bit of fun here today....two tests of time based pivots....tried to catch this last one as close to "real time" as possible.....LOL but it seems to be beyond me..... This was a retracement and test of the previous day's low at 1307...of course no idea if it will hold but we take them anyway...
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Here is the European Open...with most of Eurozone reacting to Sarkozy's decision to apply a transaction tax and Italy scheduled to sell bonds.....Portugal paying up to 15% for their money and most of the banks taking it on the chin as Greece continues to weigh on everyone....The other item that may interest traders is the Euro summitt....most institutions hoping for a solution but skeptical of the outcome.... The pre-market (overnight) ES market indicated that we would open down initially....what you will see however on my charts are examples of basing patterns and rerversal patterns, both of which indicates (to me) that the secondary or counter move will be up Green arrows indicate entries I will stay up another hour to see if we get continuation....if not I will get some sleep and try to get up for the US open at 6:30
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The WEEKLY open is used from Monday to Friday....once the week ends on Friday at the close of business, the weekly open is no longer in play....
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Ha....of course I held it....through 2 retests and into the evening....thats the job....and its history as the market hit a high and reacted to predictable GDP numbers....the overnight is a very easy trade....you have to fight boredom and sleep issues but the rest is very straightforward. Now I'll finish by trading the open and then get some sleep.. See ya
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Working the overnight market this evening and thought I would mention this trade At 20:51 (8:51 PST) price tested 1310.75......the weekly open......and of course I took the trade reversal to the tick....no idea if it will work out but thats the game we play here...filled at 1311 and we are at 1312.25 right now at 9:27pm PST and of course the same questions apply as before, why would the weekly open be important on Thursday evening at 8:51pm? Good luck folks
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I have had significant experience both trading and training....what I find is that each individual takes their own time to learn based on background, education, temperment, available capital and limitations on the time they can devote to the project. Iironically those who don't "need" the money, and do not wish to become professionals....are doing very well...while those who say they are interested in achieving professional status and believe that the potential to make money is very important are by and large doing less well (breakeven or slightly better)....for those who are doing less well, I attribute this to an inability to manage emotions, and more specifically an inability to manage the idea of periodic loss...in fact at the end of this time period all of them will be asked to stop and trade on their own....in my opinion, whether they "make it" or not, will depend on their own motivation to succeed and to break through their own psychological barriers....and before anyone posts comments, I have nothing to sell.... Good luck Steve
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Done for the AM session.....the move from 1303.50 seems to have topped out just shy of 1310 and that coincides with the beginning of lunch hour in NY Couple of observations...first, once certainly can know "why" things happen....however from a professional standpoint what matters more are the statistics....does the event display predictability.....what is the risk....and then the details....what is the average favorable excursion after a test of the "xyz line".....does it happen every day....every other day....only at the open For me, once I obtain a minimum number of data points, if the stats are right I am going to hit it until things change....one thing that I know works is an aggressive approach.....once you have the numbers in your favor, take the trade until they make you pay....if you have done your homework...and interpreted the numbers correctly....you will have made enough money on the trades to justify the risk... Now I need to get some sleep .
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I agree in principle...it is interesting and important to know why...and while you are looking into that subject....I am going to trade it.....because I have already done the historical backtest and found that it works.... and in case anyone has an interest I have taken a different approach to the trading day.....now that I am trading the overnight......I trade the US open from 6:30 to either 7:30 or 8:30 depending on the schedule of economic report releases....then I take a short nap....coming back to the screen at 10am PST....I trade from 10am to close....if I have a trade in the afternoon it is usually based (once again) on time...I have found that there are a couple of time periods that usually offer nice entries....If I have trade to manage I stay with it otherwise I stop for the day, redo my charts (update my supply & demand nodes) and I am ready for Japan's open...and then Hong Kong... This is a modified format based on what I used to do professionally....I call it "skimming the markets".. So far so good....