steve46

In my opinion the comments all relate to the concept of taking the "blinders" off I am a bottom line kind of person...for me that bottom line is simple Most people swim in a sea of emotions they don't understand...if you get some visibility as to how that works, you have an potential advantage in any activity you engage in....not just trading. Personally the idea of archetypes doesn't appeal to me...I prefer a direct path to my goal.... Back to work

Consider it done Josh

Well the resignations are in anticipation of getting booted out because of the many sanctions they are imposing on the society.... There are two schools of thought on this (as I understand it)...one, that the people will vote most of the politicians out in retaliation for the EU imposed measures, and the other that people will realize that this is the only way they can stay in the Union.... I figure most of Papdemo's government is good as gone as soon as the elections take place.

Agree with your comment (Negotiator) about the weekly open. Its one of the numbers I use.. As to this market, the problem is Greece and the possibility of disorderly default (which is very real to institutions and funds)....most of the exposure is overseas, however the effects (which is really what the term "contagion" is about) are seen here in the unusual market conditions.... What I think you will see are short bursts as automated programs try to find order flow and get in front of it....I would think most commercial players are waiting for Bernanke and/or the Presidents comment later today... and of course developing news can trump all The screen shot attached shows one item that could be of importance to some....on the right side you see the ES contract and the two inset dark blue bars show the location of previous buying and resting orders....coincidentally that is where price reversed today.... Best to all Steve

Josh You got driven around like a stolen chevy...too bad champ....but thats how the world works and those of us who have figured it out make a living trading off the information, while you whine and challenge impotently......you see you don't mean that much to me.....you can't get in my head....because I already know where I stand with the people who DO mean something to me. Get over it and join the rest of the adults (or not). Its up to you Back to work (Good luck everyone) Steve

Appreciate the continued entertainment princess. I'll give it another shot....you suggest that trading based on what a person says is "crazy"...but I just typed a few carefully chosen words and zoom...you could not keep from posting your reply.. Is this too difficult to get?....I trade events based on the crowd's emotional response to WORDS If I can make you respond, why does it seem unreasonable that others do the same when they hear certain words from Mr. Bernanke? Duh!!!!! Ah well, back to work. Best to everyone Steve

One of the draws of this site is the unscripted comedy improv that some of you generate on a daily basis. First congratulations....you finally figured out that the reason for my trade isn't about logic....its about the emotional reaction that the crowd exhibits when Mr. Bernanke says something that they A. agree with, B. disagree with, or C. are surprised to hear. Frankly the older I get the less patient I am with naivete, but in this case I am going to go "with it" a while longer assuming that you aren't stupid but perhaps developmentally delayed... "Logic" works up to a point, but at some point, those of us who do this for a living figure out that what always works is to get inside the heads of those who can move markets, anticipate what they are going to do correctly and get in front of that decision making process. During the time that I worked an overnight desk trading the Euro and Bond, this is how I made a living....my boss would characterize this process as "thinking a couple of steps ahead of the crowd"... Now it doesn't work for everyone....not everyone can do it....it may not fit YOUR style and you may well think that those of us who do it are "crazy" (as you put it), but that doesn't invalidate the process at all....and the fact that the village idiots step and congratulate you at the end of your comment would make me suspicious that I was missing the point... Good luck in the markets Steve

Challenged? Only when we make money doing it year after year. Thanks for that brilliant masturbatory essay..I am sure you feel much better now Love that Steve

I disagree...I think we all "see" the same thing....what differs is the significance we assign to what we see....and my "proof" is over in the thread titled "daytrading the Emini futures"....where I suggest to other traders that upon hearing Mr. Bernanke's response to a question earlier today, I decided to take a trade......while other presumably rational traders respond by saying that I am crazy to do so..... We hear the same words...I decide to take the trade, others decide "nope"

So I will post this to see if I can help out with respect to stops The leftmost arrow shows where price tests and closes below a blue rectangle (a demand node)....for my system, if price continues we have a downtrending overnight market Now what I do is to take the trade based on my criteria (the next arrow shows my entry)....and my stop is just below the previous low...for this market I have two (2) scenarios in the first I take profits at 2, 3, 5, 7 and 10.....for the second scenario I take profit at 2, and 3 and I am prepared to get out there....generally because of a pending event (earnings report or economic report of some kind).. I am willing to risk two points to get at least 2 and hopefully more points on each trade...I know what my expectation is, because I've done my research...from my point of view, it "costs me" 2 points (periodically) to win from 3 to 10...I know what the "frequency" should be (for me to win more than I lose)...and if that were to change....I would know within a few days....and then my job would be to figure out why....So far (over a period of more than a decade) I have only had to figure it out once....but it does happen.

I have to agree with Kiwi and I certainly see why folks are critical of vendors...the problem from my point of view is that this makes it very difficult for those few who are trying to do something decent for new traders... And Cyp (if you are reading my posts) now you can see what I was talking about in my response to your PM last night... Best of luck to everyone Steve

Yes thanks for that thoughtful comment.... My response is simple...there's a reason that these events are televised...people make decisions based on what they hear Mr. Bernanke say in response to questions In this case Mr. Bernanke was asked about a subject that is important to the market...we know this because right after he answered the market moved....its a simple concept that (almost) anyone can appreciate... Thanks Steve Thanks

I am glad there were "a few possible reasons" for that move...thats what I call "confluence" Personally I don't have the time....and I mean that in the literal sense....when it is occurring I dont have the time to figure this out..it occurs to me just now that Pete Steidlmayer suggested that Market Profile couldn't explain this kind of behavior....in fact his opinion was that the best you could do was to look for imbalance based on the market's reaction to events....both on the macro and micro scale.

As usual you miss the point Josh....the market tells YOU what is and isn't important and what it means....YOUR opinion on the subject (mine as well) doesn't matter...the man responded and the market went up...THATS what matters...

I posted this in the Psychology forum a while ago and then thought why not direct your attention to it...as it may help some folks http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/psychology/11886-mind-you-brought-trading-not-mind.html The attached chart wont mean much until you read that post..sorry but have some other chores to attend to now... Steve

I think the idea of having an "adaptive mind" is a good thing, provided a person can offer a practical example that gives traders a idea of what is needed Today we had a good example just now, as Ben Bernanke was asked a question by Representative Charles Grassley of Iowa.... In response to his question about the impact of a pending increase in taxes if congress does not extend the Bush Tax Cuts, Bernanke suggested that while congress needs to adopt a sustainable long term fisal program, they also need to respond to the immediate situation and provide some relief to tax payers. The attached chart shows a market that was moving sideways while that question was asked and where the green arrow comes, you have a "response" as Mr. Bernanke answers the question.....the result was a tradable move up From my point of view what most developing traders could benefit from would be the kind of education that allows them to recognize THAT kind of opportunity and take advantage of it...rather than some unfocused idea of managing emotional content... Sorry, but I would rather have a practical way to make money now, and learn to manage my emotions a bit later.... Thanks Steve

Hello Yes I did take partial profit, but I got filled at 2.75 instead of 3....and my stop was hit... thanks for your question..

and this one looks to be a loser.....ah well that happens here is the chart...I am still in it but it does not look good at the moment.

Here's another Globex entry for those interested in the overnight market......Based on experience I don't take trades during the game, but after....I have found that my system works just fine... Here we have a chart showing a test of previous day's (Friday) low at 1333.25....because the test occurred at a demand node, its a valid setup.... Since there are no significant US economic reports scheduled for tomorrow I will stay with this one as long as possible.... This evening we have Sentix at 1:30am and German Factory Orders at 3am....if we get some breathing room on this and the German report is favorable, this one could run......if it doesn't give me a reason to stay with it, I will exit at 3:30 and try to get some sleep prior to the US open I will take partial profit at 3 points. Good luck everyone

Yes sir, that is how I see it as well....

Negotiator I am going to leave this bit of cleanup to your judgement....Mark suggests I ignore him/her. Lets give that a try... Best to all Steve

You know I have changed my mind....I think everyone should buy Urma's wonderful indicator I look forward to a world where everyone trades using it.... Steve

I suspect he did that because I don't sell anything (my class is closed), while Urma Blume continues to sell his product(s) I realize that this is not an important distinction on your planet.... Live long and prosper Steve

Tom (roztom) Sorry I realized that you asked about how to manage sleep.....I am waiting for the 12:30 time frame and I want to reply about that First, I used to trade a high touch desk overnight...the way I managed was to take naps every couple of hours...while an associate watched the screen...now I am an older person trading on my own so I handle it differently.....first I trade the open from 6:30 to either 7:30 or 8:30 (depends on whether I have a position on)....then I take another nap until 10:00am....I trade from 10 to close or until I see the 12:30 time frame....if we don't have an opportunity by 12:45 I am gone....it works for me....I find that I don't miss as many trades as I did when I tried to sit there in front of the sceen continuously from open to close...I work with a couple of people who were skeptical about this until they tried it themselves..... Thanks for asking Steve

Your comments are well taken.....you have to know what you are doing to trade events There are a couple of ways to handle risk of events....the general process involves using options to establish a core position several days or (now that we have weekly options) a week or so out.....you have two choices based on local vol......one is you can buy or sell "the number" (meaning "at the money" options) or you can buy or sell volatility....I hope some of you understand what that means... If you have a protocol that you follow, you simply execute and evaluate your core (options position).....if you have "breathing room" by the time your event is scheduled you can trade around it...depending on your skills....the process is (once again) the same....you try to pre-position in front of the event so that you have a margin or error and if it goes against you the impact is minimal... On the day of the event....what usually happens in a professional market is that you have a time period of appproximately a hour in front of the event in which to position....on top of that I look for an algorithmic pattern that indicates that someone "knows" or (at the very least has an opinion they are willing to back with money) what the report will be....after you have seen it a while you can recognize that pattern...if I don't see it by the time we are 2 minutes in front of the "event" I scratch my trade and hold the option position...If I see the pattern I hold both... Good luck folks Steve Edit...on page 156, post 1243 ....I talk about establishing my options position.