steve46

Interesting that once a person asks....first you get the newbies comment, many of them need the same thing....and eventually the BS artists show up... So here's a comment and it won't cost you anything but the time it takes you to think for a moment.... First, there are several ways to get the data you are talking about.....depending on your charting you can simply monitor a DOM, or you can get cumulative data (IRT has several ways to show the order flow).....if you have some cash to spend you can get CQGs aggregated trade flow bars.. Now when you get into these various ways of displaying the order flow, be aware that what you are seeing is only a fraction of what you really need to make a good decision...AND no matter what kind of data display you eventually settle on you will still need to practice and acquire some skills.... I have been doing this a long time, and I favor what most would call the "old school" method Simply put you start with a screen display that includes the NYSE TICK, Market Breadth (if you use Esignal...both $VOLD & $ADD)....you also need a "time & sales" strip.....long story short most professionals learned this way...it takes time....and you need to develop some skill, but once you have it....no one can take it away from you, and it continues to work the same as the first day I learned it. Now anticipating the obvious question(s)...yes I am a vendor, but ironically I don't have anything to sell you....I have trained two small classes (4 people in each class)....they had to apply and go through an interview process before the class started....WHY....because to really train people to do this right....you can't just sell them an indicator....it doesn't work....thats why so many of you get burned. I closed out my class a couple of days ago. If I were doing it all over again, I would start by getting the screen setup I just described....I would take a few months to simply watch and observe price against the backdrop of the time & sales and TICK....if you do this, and you have some talent, I would bet you can teach yourself enough to get going....then its a matter of networking and trying to find people who are using the same system... I have added one more item that sets it aside from the sharks and bs artists....I use time based pivots on a worksheet....as I watch my screen, if price tests one of my pivots, I know that all I have to do is to determine the trend and then see if price holds a bid or not....If you want a time based pivot chart....again no charge, its public info, read my thread "An Institutional look at the S&P Futures".... Best of luck to you Steve

Yes all very well and good and here in the attached chart, you have traders buying (for the moment) previous value at 1369.25 Apparently they did not get the memo about 1368.....although we certainly could see that number later in the session. As to the earlier question about which number would a trader be likely to act upon...for me there are a couple of good answers...first....you read the tape.... always a good way to see whether a bid is held...and second.....and most importantly... if the setups look good (in this case they did not) you take them both....they are separated by only a point....my view is that if you cannot tolerate a 1 or perhaps 2 or more point stop, you probably should not be in the game... Good luck

Yes for the moment that works and for you Market Profile adherents, the question this evening is when you have a choice between taking entry at Previous Value (1369.25) or at the previous day's open (1368.25) which do you choose? Tonight the correct answer is worth about $150 per contract....

by the way, you ought to read some of the other "similar" threads listed below....depending on your native intelligence you may see that there are several distinct groups of folks trading this market....and as in most circumstances, one group (I like to call them "cowboys") is paying the others to play...

Yes thats whats profit taking is...people liquidating profitable positions before the market takes back some of the profits.... And this market moves in levels.....traders wait until they see specific data then they position themselves to get on board to the next level...the smaller traders are the ones taking profits...most of the action is speculative based on news...very little on fundamental data. Certainly no reason why you can't ask, but surely you must realize that no one is going to give up their edge on a public website...Your best bet is to become a good observer and read as much available data as possible...once you put the pieces together (if you still have capital) you should be able make a few dollars if you manage risk decently.

last trade of the day Price shows an algo pattern right at the border of a node. I look for participants to try to find sellers below 68 half...when they cannot...you see the long wick extending below the ledge Entry is the next candle, preferrably at the retest of the lower boundary of the wick, but frankly anywhere within 2 or 3 ticks is fine Traders choice to hold or get out with a couple of points.....this is what my class calls a layup... This was my second class of 4 students...and they were all dismissed and asked to go trade on their own....my job is done. Good luck folks

You are probably new to this market....it is profit taking

The usual response is "yes I've done that".... The defensive stance "how do you know....tells me what I wanted to know..thanks and good luck

thats interesting...depending on the timing I am willing to use value extremes as entry or exit points

Josh for me previous value is found between 1362.75 and 1371.25..... and I simply use my system rules to determine which of my nodes are active and in play on a given day.

Yes you are correct, sometimes I don't do the exact right thing....absolutely correct to point that out As regards tape reading, I find it provides a significant edge over simply reacting to the chart. Among other things tape reading gives me an indication of when and how other participants are deciding to enter the market in response to time and price, and most importantly I can see whether a bid is held or not....as far as I can tell there is no other way to see that. What I find is that a person needs to have conviction...and that comes with experience and skill. Some days I have it, some days not so much.

Today's open was unremarkable....very average....the attached chart shows some arrows that may serve as landmarks...the left most green arrow is the open....some time later the second arrow shows what I call the "opening range". At the top of that opening range we have a test of Value at 71.25....Because that test occurs a bit too early in the session at 6:36am, I do not take it....(had it occurred several minutes later I would have).... Price then comes back down to test a demand node and in the process it creates a potential higher low (the next green arrow)...scan left and you see a line where price has previously tested....the timing is crucial here...at 6:45 exactly I READ THE TAPE AND TAKE THE ENTRY LONG....I want to hold this entry until either A) my stop loss is hit or B) two minutes prior to the economic report....at that point my rule set calls for me to exit with whatever profit I have. I exit that trade at 6:59:30 as price tests the bottom of a supply node... Negative economic report, and price waterfalls down to previous demand....the spike at the bottom shows where buyers have come in to take a stand..for approximately 4 minutes buy & sell orders fire off...we read the tape and re-enter at 67.75...very poor entry but thats how it goes sometimes...we take the trade and hold looking for a reversal....20 minutes later we are at the top of a supply node so that is where you get off the train.... Thats it for the morning session.

"Candlestick Charting Explained" by Gregory Morris has a section where he discloses his research on the subject....in my opinion its useless but there you go... My question is why don't you do your own research so that the result refects your target market and most recent data?

Yes I did miss the post The mistake is mine, I wasn't supposed to post that pivot Sorry Steve

Yes absolutely nothing wrong with that...however lets be clear about what we are saying... For me its about doing the research and once I see a behavior I am willing to bet on it....not blindly but in a reasonable way...for example When price tests an extreme I am able to read the tape...either volume comes in to support continuation or it doesn't....its that simple...based on what you are saying, you can't do that with your system and you are left with another option as you have shown...perfectly fine of course, but those are the differences. To me its all very interesting and shows in part why markets move as they do....

Busy day today...The 10 min chart shows the previous high at 76.75 and the previous low at 64.50 This market has shown a well documented tendency to take out highs and lows by a few ticks then reverse...so it is relatively easy to wait for the extremes and take a shot Today you have both opportunities...really a gift day. and Tom if you visit today, the benefit of leaving a small piece in the trade in case it runs is well displayed here...if one simply got on board at the previous high and left ONE (1) contract in place, you had a nice day with very little risk....if you did the same thing at the other extreme on the long side, you now have the choice of either taking that additional contract off as price revisits the origin of the long or letting it go in case we get a true reversal up from here. Either way the result is much better with that process in place than if you just took the whole trade and left the arena, and the secondary benefit is that it motivates you to keep your head in the game.

Couple of nice pre-open trades today and one "layup" The layup is characterized as a low risk entry based a test of a number (a time based pivot) coinciding with a pending econ report....in this case the test occurred at 64.50 In a momentum based market, even without volume we think of this as a gift trade.

nuovi membri non possono affiggere immediatamente spiacente (hope that makes it clear)

This post for Roztom regarding "capturing the day's range" Today by coincidence we got a day that shows how the time based pivots work. After the open (assuming you got on board) the scale outs are the red arrows On my daily worksheet, the previous open is 64.75, the previous high at 67.50....the weekly high (where I would be looking next to scale is only a tick further up the road at 67.75 The high of the day so far is showing on my 120 min chart (and is not displayed on my worksheet) I have learned to think in these terms because it works...to put it plainly...Today I ran out of bullets at 67.50 I did not have the chance to scale out at the top...however if you look at the bottom band on the attached chart you can see that I have a 120 min chart to refer to and it shows the previous high pretty clearly... To me it seems reasonable to assume that other like minded participants are going to move the market in these increments. As I have said before I don't expect to get it all (I never have) but because I have seen this many times over the years, it makes sense to use (time based pivots) prices as possible targets.

The reason other than cost is that each process has its own history of performance in the S&P market...I can look back on that history and I know what the risk adjusted performance is likely to be for A) my options position, B) my intraday trades and C) my remainder position (if any) One of the advantages of keeping good records is that you can determine which (if any) your strategies work best over the short or longer time frame. At this late date I also know which of my strategies is should be overweighted because of seasonal issues, some of which are (but not limited to) earnings, economic reports, seasonal issues like distributions, and tax considerations. For example if I have visibility I may try to maintain a longer term options position so that I profits are taxed as long term gains (using leaps). That kind of strategy has over the past couple of years, offered a nice benefit IF you have the skills to make it happen. On the professional side, this is a thinking man/or woman's game, and to the extent that you plan ahead and put your ducks in a row, you stand to make signficantly more profit than just entering at A and hoping to get out with a few points profit at B on an intraday trade. I mention it because some folks have the basics down and can go on to get the nuances in place, while many are still looking for a profitable basic trading plan...clearly folks have to start wherever they are and move forward from there...but this comment may give some idea of the level that skilled folks try to reach......(and of course not everyone wants, needs or aspires to go to those lengths). Don't want to be impolite but I have a few chores to take care of, so I will have to pass of further comment for today. Hope that helps. Steve

I guess the first thing to say is that I don't consider leaving money on the table a particularly significant problem, IF you have a viable trading plan and you see the possibility for REALISTIC improvement....I leave money on the table every day...I view it as inevitable What I think IS realistic and attainable, is for traders to improve their ability to accurately visualize profit targets, while leaving a "piece" of their original position in place....by "piece" I mean (for retail traders) at least 2 contracts....this solution it seems to me, permits the trader to take one more scale out at whatever price he/she thinks is the maximum favorable exursion for the trade (in that time period), leaving at least one contract in place in case they are wrong and the market displays continuation...I tell my students that this provides a good compromise between risk and reward on an intraday basis. Historically when volatility is low, one might argue that it doesn't add much, but clearly when volatility ramps up, this provides a significant boost to longer term profitability... I do the same thing in a slightly different way when I establish a long term options position and then trade around it....unfortunately this solution is capital intensive and requires knowledge of options greeks...for those reasons alone, it is probably not a realistic approach for the average retail trader.

Okay so Tom have you given thought to trading a specific time period, then taking a break (leaving the screen)? I do this and it seems to be working.....I do miss the occaisional trade but when I am at the screen I don't miss trades or take bad (or late) entries...that used to be a problem for me...Here's how I approach it Open to 8:30am...trade 8:30 to 9:45.....break Starting at 11am I trade for 45 minutes then take a 15 minute break and of course I adjust if I am managing a position Hope this helps Steve

I was trained to think of this a bit differently...for me trading and losing is simply part of the game....you expect to have losing days....but not trading because you can't handle the action (whatever the reason) is pretty negative....unless you are a hobbyist and don't need the income...in that case, its fine... The issue for me is that you have a finite number of trading days...you assume your system will produce a certain number of winning and losing days on average, or that your system will produce a positive or negative result in dollar terms per time period, and when you don't trade it introduces a randomizing element into the system.... For my own system I assume a certain number of missed days as part of my "numbers"...if I go significantly past that number of "personal days", I can anticipate a potentially negative effect on my yearly totals.

I think its wonderful to have a jargon all your own (as each system has)....however what matters to me in the end is whether I can make a dollar...and for all its elegance, I notice that market profile and even volume profile for that matter, does not take into consideration, the FACT that markets are moved by the decisions that people make in offices on Wall Street and elsewhere and many of those folks have no idea of what Market Profile is....and couldn't care less... I also notice that for "some reason" particpants seem to want to come into the market to buy or sell....at the open, high and low of specific time periods (hence my concept of time based pivots)....by coincidence just this last friday, traders seemed to want to act when price tested the weekly open and high.... Good luck Folks Steve

Yes, I know that some folks use Tuesday's number instead of Monday....creates a bit more noise in the market but thats what we have to deal with..... What I see is that we tested Monday's open and failed there, then came down to Tuesday's open and rebounded......back up to Monday's open again...a game of ping-pong going here during the close