steve46

I am retired and don't need the money, I am trading only the ES contract and yes I do make enough to live on if I had to... Good luck

Yes, Mr. Obama is considering releasing stock from the US strategic reserve, and the talk is causing traders to take profits today.... Just now on my Bloomberg, "White House denies rumors of releasing stocks from the strategic reserve......" Interesting timing...

Perhaps this might help someone I was thinking that it might be useful for folks to visualize the markets in a simplified manner, looking to anticipate movement of price based on "timing", and some common sense as to how participants will react to the news (in this case economic reports) On the open (the red down arrow on the upper left), this market moved down.....if you have a way to get on, great, if not....why not simply watch and observe as the market reacts to the pending economic news....simply observe and interpret what you see in basic terms.... The market is correcting down, but that movement is orderly....what it looks like to me, is that some folks are taking a bit of profit, and some are simply waiting on the sidelines for the news This orderly correction is happening from the left most red arrow down to the elipse at or near the lower boundary of previous day's value (1387) For me this area represents a favorable entry, in part because I know that other value oriented traders will act there, and also because I see what I call horizontal development or "balance" between buyers and sellers...this happens because folks are waiting here for the news. This area of balance represents a "timed" opportunity....it will only last for a short period of time before events cause traders to act one way or the other....in my view this is a strong market and we are probably going north....I think the odds favor a long here....I got filled at 88 and again from my point of view timing is important....I want to be filled at or near 6:45am because I want to hold this trade until about 2 minutes before the release...and if I am right I should see a small profit....if I am wrong, a close below the darker blue demand node will tell me so and I can get out with about a point loss...for me thats decents odds. For me the result is not as important as the thought process.....as we know in hindsight the market moved up prior to the release and then retraced slightly (back to my entry point)....I have seen this many times (retrace back to the entry)...I have a small piece of my position left in place...if it closes below that point (88) I am out...if not I hold and wait for it to resume what I think is the primary trend north...today it worked out..... The result was that I got a couple of points off the opening entry at 88.....leaving a small piece in, I watched it retrace....when it came back to my entry I simply followed my rule set....close below entry I am gone....bounce off....I hold (looking for a continuation up to previous highs.

Tonight's last Globex trade is a short entry at 1392.25 (filled at even) What we were waiting for was Fitch's announcement, either to downgrade or warn the Brits London wants to be insulated as much as possible from the Greece problem, however thats just not going to happen...so here we are and you can bet that people are going to react to any news that impacts the UK as this might. The pattern is what we call an algorithmic reversal, with price testing value at 92 breaking down slightly as bots intercept the flow, then retesting to see if there are sellers in the crowd As you can see it takes place over an extended period of time, and to the left you see the DAX moving in concert with the S&P Arrows show the intial move, followed by the breakdown and then the entry signal (red arrow) Scale out at 2 and then let it go....either they run with it or not...I am guessing they do not...because most participants are waiting for tomorrow's PPI, unemployment and TIC numbers....but if I am lucky I will see 3 maybe 5 points from this one. As with all these entries I leave a piece in there just in case.

Referring back to a previous post....here is my full session chart Scanning left you can see the green and red arrows that outline the distribution that price stayed within during the Globex session...this is characteristic of the action right after a trend day...this time it carried over to the next RTH session, testing below briefly before returning to the approximate midpoint. trading tests of the extremes of the data distribution tends to work well IF you have a viable approach and enough discipline to stay with the plan. Dealers choice to scale out or hit your targets...personally I scale, because I don't take 2 point losses. The previous poster was right, you can't do this unless you know your wrong quickly. That alone is why so many folks are taking a whipping right about now (repeated stop outs bleeding the account). Good luck Steve

Tom I understand your comment...what traders need in this environment is an understanding of the factors that move markets in the Globex time frame....most of it is related to news, and then to economic reports....if you know how to interpret the news (and you understand what has impact and what doesn't) then instead of playing for a couple of points you can let it run (while you do your homework) and discover that you have 5 points instead of a point or two) The second issue is related to the average length of a trending move....when you understand that what you see in the Globex is simply a mirror of what the Asian and European markets are doing, then you have the possibility of using those markets to help you make decisions. Ultimately "our" Globex market consists of several "opens" starting with Asia right after the close of US RTH, then going on China (the Hang Seng) and Singapore, right on to Germany's DAX and London....As a trader learns to use the available data, he or she can (if they wish) go from simply scalping to learning how to really play the overnight game. I spent the majority of a my professional career doing just that. For those interested you can start by becoming acquainted with sites that provide data for the Asian and European markets...including Forexpros and ForexFactory....and you should probably get acquainted with Briefing.com and/or ForexFactory's economic calendar features...they are free and allow you to plan your overnight activities. Good luck folks Steve

Last trade of the night for the Globex market A perfect reversal pattern, occuring right at an underlying demand node, and we had confirmation from the DAX....no time based pivot however, so we simply reduce size and take the entry anyway....fortunately it worked out For folks interested in learning how to trade, this (Globex) market is very easy, particularly after a regular session trend day...often the market will move within a range, and we simply play ping pong selling the highs, buying the lows depending on the first half hour distribution. This is a pattern that used to be called "MATD" (morning after a trend day). time to get some sleep before RTH opens

Just out of curiosity Steve66, how is your system working in the current market and do you see any change in performance recently from say, a year ago....? Not concerned with details but with your general impressions. For example, about a year ago I ran into some problems with my DAX data....had to make some adjustments......surprisingly I found something that significantly improved my system even though I am trading only the open and close.... By the way I work "inside" 10 minute bars... Thanks

Good for you Josh....seems to me that your approach was rational and provided a decent reward based on the data....what you call guessing is for me simple estimation of the probabilities....you have to work with the tools at your disposal...you use your own, I use mine and I incorporate experience....my previous comment was simple...you can't buy experience or find it on a chart package....as you can see however you can still get to the same (or nearly the same) endpoint... Today was similar...with important news on the horizon and Greece just finishing its CAC process, many participants are watching from the sidelines....I simply scale back on size and take the signals I see looking for small hits....tomorrow's another day.... The attached chart shows the last trade of the day....simple reversal signal occurring right in the middle of a demand node and just below value extreme....in this kind of market, where so many are taking a whipping, what you have to do is focus on a specific opportunity and keep your head in the game....I walk away from the screen right before lunch (NY time) and come back to trade the last hour....works for me. Best of luck Steve

I can only react to the question you post...to me using a 15 min chart, implies an intraday framework...on that time scale, a market can remain overbought or oversold all day (and the next day as well)...again its called "trend". If you want a comment based on a longer time frame, it would be helpful to indicate that in the body of your question. My comments on the subject of reversal patterns are posted in the emini daytrading thread. Quite a few chart examples posted there as well. Good luck Steve

For me there are three elements that come together to confirm a reversal First there is the confluence of time and price...I look at my time based pivots...they tell me if there is reason to look for a reversal Second I look for price to test a previous area of supply or demand Third I look for a recognizable reversal pattern...those are patterns that show me that the market is starting to react to a change of direction...starts on the 10 minute time frame, moves to the 3 minute and finally you see what I call an "algorithmic reversal pattern" on the minute or sub-minute time frame... Once I see that last element (the reversal pattern) I know that I have a low risk entry In your first scenario, relying on overbought/oversold indications means nothing....markets can remain overgbought/oversold for extended periods of time...its called trend...there's your first problem...and nothing in your statement "tells" me that you have bought the low tick.... In the second scenario, having acted on data that is meaningless you have a position based on random chance, so you're screwed...either it works out (by chance) or it doesn't....bad position to be in, but thats what most retail traders find themselves doing....typically your account bleeds to death fast or slow depending on your stop size. Most retail traders are risk averse (because they don't have a system that works), so as they see price move adversely they get out and try it again....rinse and repeat.....until the account is gone...that is the usual scenario...

Nope, no crowing necessary, this isn't a big deal for me....its a day thats all Basically I have two points to make....ONE, if you know now to trade events, you can pick up some easy money....you have to have an approach that works and then a way to get on board....I was taught to do it....and what I am saying is that the game is played on several levels....YOU don't have to want to play it that way....I choose to. Item 2.....I know of two methods (that really work well) to "read" a market like the S&P....you can learn to read the tape (if you can find someone to show you) OR you can figure out that if you simpy read the "price action" on a minute or sub minute scale...if you try it, what you are seeing is actually a significant percentage of the order flow....in fact you are seeing enough of the order flow to make it possible to determine whether the bid holds (and when it doesn't)....Actually I have already posted in pretty good detail (in this thread) what it is that you look for in order to find a favorable entry...like all valuable skills it takes time and effort, but it works...I do it every day. Bottom line, its a day like any other, except that I was prepared to trade this event....and based on the posts, I didn't see anyone else "on it". From my perspective its as though someone dropped money on the sidewalk and I walked up and saw it there.....am I gonna pick it up...yep

Point well made.....you are in London...and as I recall you keep abreast of the news I would suggest that the Americans in the group did not anticipate it Here on the west coast the news was announced right before noon. As to the reaction...I believe that experience dictates how you view this....for me it is straightforward....when ISDA announces that a "credit event" has triggered, a certain subset of folks are going to react...I am clear on that.....what is debatable I think is how much impact that announcement will have on the American market....after all, they have been preparing for this overseas for a long time....but again folks here.....not so much...that is why I thought it to be a good bet.... As to the trade itself....if you read the tape you can see where the bid is held....from my point of view this isn't unusual.....since I scale out I can take profit and even hold some hoping for continuation.......for those interested...there is a reason these announcements are made on Friday at the close of the S&P Futures....think about it for a moment...by announcing it at the end of the day, someone gets a preview of how THIS market reacts to the event...overseas there are folks looking for some clue as to what to do with thier money on monday.... Good luck folks.

Why do I say this? Because reviewing the previous page of posts...no one....suggests that this event was on the horizon.....did you forget that this news was going to impact the market this afternoon...? Certainly no one anticipated it here on this thread in the last page.... and it was worth 5 points.... thats why

Just a quick note.....this was one of the events that I wait (and prepare) for I refer to the activation of Greek law CACs just a while ago... The event was talked about on the financial news periodically and as recently as last night on Bloomberg For my style of trade it works well because it allows me to make sense of the market action when technicians cannot Earlier in this thread Tom you mentioned the "sail luffing"...well understood....this is because the market comes to a stop....meaning market participants (in this market the majority of them professionals) wait for the news knowning that it may have a significant effect on them... The chart shows me a slightly different story...as I have posted previously....on the minute & sub minute time frame you can see the granularity as price oscillates in a charactistic way just prior to the accouncement....The circle around the action just prior to the news shows price tick up and down as participants "cast their votes"...and of course you always get the programmed input as the order flow is intercepted by the bots....then right after the announcement you have the short tick up to find buyers.....but no takers....then the cascade down as the herd sells it off....this is the initial move that I was looking for. It was a measured move down followed by the retrace as price tested near the previous day's high at 62.50 Technical analysis doesn't get you there folks....you need something else Best of luck to all

Couple of ways to do this Tom, one of them is to look at my chart (any of them for the darker blue rectangles)....they appear at intervals and represent areas of concentrated liquidity and/or previous order imbalance....Today's charts show them at 68, 69, 71 and again at 73 I would be holding for a test of 73 today...and of course who knows, in a news driven market especially this week when private debt holders are asked to participate in a swap process...if that doesn't go smoothly by Wednesday/Thurs we could see another move down... More specifically Tom, I watch the rotations but do not make assumptions about the strength of the corrections....its just too stresssful...once I get my primary profit in the bank the rest is speculation and I am willing to let it run either way....I have been on both sides of this (with my own money and with the banks) and it is much easier to watch it and just let go of the tension. Today's non manufacturing PMI number has a volatile history...I am expecting a slight retrace off the open on this number....Factory orders are easier to anticipate and should smooth out the results somewhat. Overall I expect a positive uptrending market starting about an hour after the open. We'll see if I am right pretty soon. On the plus side if we get a big positive number we will probably see another test of the previous high at 77 If it works out great, if not there is always another one coming along. I hope this helps Best of luck today

Negotiator I think the general concept of supply and demand (which is what my blue nodes represent) is understandable....as posted previously (on this thread) those nodes become important when price tests one of them, AND that test coincides with a "time based pivot" or a distribution extreme...by all means folks if the comments and charts are not helpful it is easy for me to stop posting... Good luck folks

Thanks Tom For us the process is pretty simple, requiring only the discipline to stay up and take the entry, and enough insight (I guess this is really experience) to tell us to stay in the game rather than cash out with a few ticks. As with our previous comments on leaving runners in place, the importance of staying with a trade becomes obvious as the day wears on...if you see this work a couple of times, you start to understand what the impact can be of taking out 10 or 20 extra points on a weekly basis. Good luck to everyone.

Finally we as move toward a decision on pre-positioning, we switch from to the 3 min time frame looking for a signature reversal pattern.... This is one example of that pattern Our system rules allow us to either take profit at our discretion or hold into the open anticipating a trending day.... This is why we leave a small piece of our position in play

Once I see a viable longer term target, I switch to a shorter time frame

Here's a look (the only one that I will publish) at the longer term system that I use to determine overnight reversals The attached chart shows the action on a 120 min time frame On this time frame I look for potential targets...those targets are the distribution extremes (highs & lows) in this time frame

There are a good number or reasons why you should be very careful of Forex in general I wouldn't be involved in it...the alternative is exchange traded currency futures...which is heavily regulated. To each his own of course. Best of luck to you Steve

Here is an example of how we look at the Globex open on Sunday afternoon The chart displays 45 second candles which gives us a nice look at the granularity of the market as opens...what we look for is what I call a "signature" which allows us to both predict the next few candles and to get a favorable entry... The background to this is important...before we begin to trade we look at a variety of data to try to determine a market bias for this open....if we think we have a good idea of where the market is going initially, we will take the trade off the open (as you see here)....if we are unsure, we simply don't take this trade....there is no reason to hurry, because there are so many other signals throughout the session..... The nice thing about establishing early position, is that on occaision, when you are right, you can simply hold this while the market continues to trend throughout the night...or you can take your couple hundred bucks and go to bed early...trader's choice Finally if you look at the chart closely, you see that we opened at/near previous value low 1367 now recently I have been hearing from some of you that you won't (or wouldn't) take trades at or near value.....certainly your privlege, but be advised that there are quite a few folks from my world who are trained to do just that (I know I will continue to do so until they "make me pay").. to each his own I guess... Good luck folks

Sorry for the late reply. I seem to have a cold so I am probably going to be away for a while here. As regards the trade you mentioned I use what is for me, standard stop around 2 pts...frankly if the trade isn't working out, I can see it, because I am watching the tape....If I am wrong I know it sooner than that. and as regards the open....again if you read tape....I don't want to beat a dead horse here...but it seems that most do not....it really makes a difference. Part of the training process when I was hired was that we had to learn what the "open" was...in terms of microstructure...how it works and what the timing is so that we could operate without getting burned....The "first 5 minutes" (and then some) involve processing of retail orders as well as a few other chores that can add to volatility....one would want to be careful in that time period....okay then this isn't the place for a seminar on that subject....back to bed Good luck

Tom Thanks for the comment...as regards the issue of focus, I am thinking that this has little to do with age, and more to do with a person's ability to anticipate the timing of possible opportunities...Since no one (except me apparently) brings this subject up, it seems likely that traders do not think it realistic to try to anticipate specific time periods where entries might occur....That is in fact the way I maintain my focus... Clearly the open is the most lucrative part of the day...I am not going to put on a seminar, but if you think about it this is obvious....it is volatile, has the best volume concentration and is frequently moved by news and economic reports....unfortunately to capitalize on it requires skills so I am sympathetic to traders who may not agree because they have gotten burned....oh well. In the afternoon session there are several opprotunities related to my old school training, some may remember the old phrase "noon balloon"....well my students will tell you it still exists....and there are a couple of others in the afternoon have to potential to change a traders day. For what its worth I am going to pursue an idea I had to put together a small room of skilled traders...as you have pointed out, it is difficult to trade ONE market let alone several by yourself..so my idea is to assign markets to traders/students who have displayed areas of interest or expertise...then in either the pre-market (or the previous evening) we willl meet and hash out our best ideas for trade opportunities....I have done it before in an institutional setting and it worked quite well....of course we had the best and brightest at that time, so the odds were good...but I am willing to risk it once again...why not...the time is going to go by anyway....right... Good luck to all Steve Good Luck