steve46

I think one of the problems I have with forums is that the people who post say things that ARE partially true....and unfortunately the rest of the comment is so far from the truth that taken as a whole there is very little value for the person who may have asked the original question... Trading is one thing.....and there ARE professionals, and amateurs who trade, some better than others, possessed of more or less talent, discipline focus motivation.....to intraday trade the S&P futures is very difficult....however it can be done....and it can be taught...yes it is difficult to find the right combination of teacher and system....but there are some out there... I assume an adult knows that they should learn financial management skills.....learning how to invest in different time frames and different asset classes is called "diversification"....if a person isn't financially literate, they should address that deficit and learn to manage money... If we are talking about trading (that's what this thread is about) THAT is a different subject altogether...and I tend to focus on the job at hand.... I had a similar conversation with person wanting to get into the class today....they wanted to know whether I was oriented to the intraday or longer time frame trade....I told them that success in this business is about recognizing opportunity on several time frames and learning to adopt the correct approach for each (opportunity)....what matters is learning to "recognize" opportunity....that comes first....then learning how to capitalize on it...is logically the second step....

consistency is affected by skill level and by the nature of the systematic approach...as one example I started a new class a few days ago....to date no losses.....the approach I use gets me in safely and very accurately....once in the market I take initial profit very quickly (1-2 points). At that point I simply manage the position looking for price to resume the primary trend (no counter trend entries for students during my classes).... The result is that I can provide significant psychological comfort upfront, knowing that if I take a loss it is going to be insignificant as compared with the potential winners. It took quite a long time to get to this point, but once there, it means that students quickly see light at the end of the tunnel...and that motivates them to stay with it and make the necessary changes (like learning to regulate emotions during the session.) Generally speaking people here have had negative (or no) experience with skilled mentors, so this tend to arouse skeptics....personally don't care...and my current students (one night and one day session) are TL members so if they want to....they can comment on their own...

Many factors affect the progress of a student toward profitability....including background education, previous experience, motivation, basic aptitude, ability to regulate emotional response to stress....etc. What I have found is that you have to be able to size up a person and provide what they need in a way that allows them to take the material in (to internalize the data), to ask the questions they need to ask, and to become comfortable with your system...(to see if the shoe fits).... That seems to take from a week to a month.... Then there is the question of efficacy....the system must produce positive results right away...there are many reasons for this....the most obvious is that the vendor/mentor is selling both education and a systematic approach....if either of them are not "right" the whole thing is (in my opinion) worthless....what I notice is vendors with problematic systems or who are unable to connect with students tend to blame it on the student....and students who don't have the proper re-requisites or motivation, do the same in reverse... Assuming one has all the ducks in a row....my students generally take about 2 months to learn enough to participate and make money....how much is relative to their account size, and how consistently relates to each person's self-discipline and ability to regulate emotional response. If I see a person is making headway and is showing talent I use money to motivate them as follows.....I charge them $200/mo to begin....they take the basic course....if they pass the course, they are asked to leave and to prove to themselves that they can do this.... If they ask to come back (for any reason) we start again at $200/mo and they have to make that back each month to stay.....if they can demonstrate that they can do this, the fee goes to $200/week, and again they have to show me that they can more than make that amount in a week.....if they cannot we go back to the original basis and work out the problems, if they CAN (demonstrate that skill level) then I ask them to leave again....and the goal at that point is to make at least $200/wk for at least 2 months....if they can, they don't need me anymore and I wish them well....its called "behavioral modification" and it works very well.... Hope this helps someone out there... Steve

I have to agree with this last statement Once I saw how I could simplify my own approach I asked myself, "will I still make money"? It didn't change a thing....I do use "aids" but only to help me see where things are headed in a general sense...after that you use your common sense....participants act like a school of fish, price moves and the school moves with it....if there is sufficient interest, it becomes momentum and that school of fish just keeps on moving forward...if not then they change direction...you watch long enough and you can see WHERE they are going and WHY they turned at this place (price) or that place (price).... I don't like the idea of watching short time frame charts but here is one idea that appeals to me....put a short time frame chart in place and a longer time frame chart next to it....watch that and see how price swims along from place to place....referring to the longer time frame to pinpoint the price "reference points". On the short time frame you can see how multiple tests of a price create S/R and on the longer time frame how this activity creates key reference points that are often in play the next day.... Good luck I guess one more thought....again I generally agree with DB but with respect to price movement it ISN"T black or white....up or down....actually what works is to notice that price trends (up or down) then pauses (and moves sideways)....this run/pause model is how our markets work.....people get an idea (I'm going to buy or sell) then they stand aside and wait (for news or whatever)....the real question is .......once the market has paused "is it going to resume the previous trend, or is it going to reverse......when you get to that point in your development, (and you can answer that question) which is similar to DB's comment, THEN you have something...

A little voice tells me "don't bother" but what the hell Look, the market IS simple.....it is just like the supermarket or a produce stand....you buy what you need to buy, what you can afford to buy, and what you think is reasonably priced....that's how you act when you are a consumer of the product....IF you are going to turn around and sell it, it becomes a bit more complex (because time becomes significant), BUT the general concept of fair value still applies... Next, each person takes in the world in a specific way...some rely on what they see, some on what they hear, some folks rely on touch, people in the food/wine industry may rely on taste...whatever it is that YOU rely on, that is the way you need to take in the data....unfortunately for those in this business the data is mostly charts (unless you are a long time frame participant) This is part of the reason why a skilled teacher can help, while the typical vendor isn't worth a dime....someone who has thought about this and has sufficient experience can look at how you respond to the chart and suggest a way that might work for you....The attached chart works for ME....for others I look at how they take in the information and I try to suggest a display that they can use...the attached chart shows an aggregate display of volume....the display is a sawtooth wave....this makes it easier to see how volume is trending in each time period (each time a new "sawtooth" is created)....personally I couldn't care less about reading the tape....learned it long ago.....but not everyone can do it....what I notice is that most everyone can see trend if it is shown as a line or a wave.....the fad is for folks to look at "footprint" charts...or to read a volume at price...if it works for you fine...but if not, just look around for the kind of display that YOU can read......and react to....its not rocket science... Good luck folks

Actually I don't really care who a vendor provides as a reference....what I care about is how they answer my questions, the tone of their voice...... the time it takes for them to react and respond.....how they answer tells me everything I need to know...whether they are sincere, whether they are exaggerating or telling me the straight truth of their experience.... If on the other hand you're a complete incompetent putz....then you aren't going to learn much from that interaction are you.........?(smirk/grin) and for any of you who are serious about finding skilled mentors/vendors, if they pass that first test (an interview) .....the next step is to ask that person to demonstrate their skill.....if they are good at what they do, you will see that right away as they go about their business...that is really the only way to determine whether a product or service is right for you....If they are unwilling, walk away.... Best of luck Steve

As mentioned its the "dealers choice", I used to use TS but changed for similar reasons.... Good luck in the markets Steve

Well I have to ask...I notice you are using Stockcharts instead of a more standard charting software.....as I recall they get their feed from BATS....and if that's the case, the volume is bound to be way inaccurate....that means your left side volume readout is also inaccurate... Your choice certainly but if I had money on the line, I would want accurate data...

This is a stripped down version of today's primary chart showing the different world markets and how they impact the US As some of you may see, if you start to look at the markets as one entity moving through time from one part of the world to the next, you can see opportunities exist (at specific times) I have marked Midnight PST as the start of significant volatility (produced by additional volume as the DAX starts to open for business)....later at 1am PST....when London (and the rest of Europe) opens, we see active participation related to the schedule of economic events for the day....

Here is a "close to close" look at my chart Trading on a close to close basis provides the skilled trader with so many options and significantly more opportunity than just looking at the US RTH open to close session... Notice how price moves up in the overnight market on low volume....then as the London market opens, volatility picks up and European institutions decide whether to play or to wait for Mario Draghi to speak....sometimes, in fact quite often, you will see that there are participants who are willing for many reasons to commit capital to buy or sell the market and that is easily recognized.... Notice the landmarks that I use including standard deviations (1st SD)... previous US & Euro session opens, highs and lows...We use these data points because other institutional traders are making decisions based on those "lines in the sand" and it is at those points that we put our volume based entry frames in place....when we see participants act to buy or sell, it cannot be disguised....

I was going to post this over at Humble's thread but decided it would be better not to.. Copy & paste to this thread (where it should be) --------------------------------------------------------------------------- "Gotta say something about this foolishness.....my god... Look at any time series you wish....by all means....and yes when you (eventually) find the time frame that provides the right type of granularity that "speaks" to you....then yes you will have the right tool for your purpose....in the meantime....apparently people fail to understand what MOTIVATES participants to buy or sell....its called opportunity....and yes it can be seen on the chart, but has nothing to do with supply & demand lines.....sorry.... People seem to forget....markets represent a dynamic process that is occurring every day, AND every night around the world as institutions make decisions about what to do with capital.. ONCE you understand how they make those decisions, you can go into the open with a very good idea of where price is headed..... Check back to some of my posts....especially the last one where I suggest we are going to see a bracketed market.....how did I know that early in the session...? By all means folks continue as you were but for those few who want to learn something other than lets draw lines and trade them....ask yourself "how's that working out for you"..... -------------------------------------------------------------------- With respect to the attached chart.....again I am using both the 10 year note and the front month ES market.....what you can't see here is the preparation I do the night before....looking the schedule of economic report releases......looking at way that the bond is trending.....checking out the longer term reference charts.....scoping out the overnight market price activity to see if there is any opportunity there for an easy pre-position entry that I can hold throughout the evening....look, people make a LOT of money doing this IF they know how to prepare and WHERE (in terms of time AND price) to act.....once you understand that its just ONE market worldwide (that's what its become)....and you see it that way as one continuous process (like a merry go round)....you simply wait for your entry point....then (if you are right) you hold that position until its time to get off the ride.....

I've noticed the same problem....my IT guy says my machine is clear of any malicious code and he has the same problem when he tried to access TL.... Heads up folks....I won't be posting either until it gets fixed.

I'm glad to hear it..... Attached a chart showing today's action....this is the last one before my classes start Notice how price on the S&P futures correlates with the 10 yr note .....Most retail traders can't handle this because institutional participants in this market don't trade price action....instead they look at technical issues associated with bank inventory loans, delivery (quality, swap, timing or wild card) and expectations for future interest rates and inflation.... Unless the trader (generically) understands how interest rates and debt yields affect markets domestically, it can be difficult to make use of this kind of data (other than in a broadly conceptual way). When I teach a class I use several correlated markets (chart on the left) and I TRY to eventually move the 10 year into that space....sometimes people get it, often however they do not and end up using a substitute like the DAX, YM, or currency pair). This is one example of the limitations I run into when people don't have an adequate background to draw from (after all, I can only do so much in a couple of months)....usually if they are making money, they don't want to do the additional work to learn the backstory for using the 10 year...and who am I to insist...recently I noticed that the attitude changes if they see me using the 10 year note, and making decisions that they could/would not using different data.. Probably won't be checking in again while markets are in session, but those who have my email and blog can PM me if they want to.... Good luck folks

So basically none of you know how to execute a due diligence process.... You come here asking others if they have experience instead of contacting the vendor to ask for references.....interviewing customers past and present and asking the important questions regarding course content and results obtained... The level of ignorance is stunning....

For those having difficulty, you simply have to spend time (quite a lot of it) thinking about what markets do and how they are used by knowledgeable participants That framework provides the key to making use of any approach including MP or VP.... My interest is in trading for a living and teaching small groups of motivated folks to do the same....basically what I have done is to strip down MP and only use a few concepts...for example I show folks how to monitor and evaluate the IB as forms....how to understand and frame that same data in markets worldwide and to understand just how interconnected markets are and how to profit from that interconnectedness... Think about this....markets have changed dramatically over the last couple of years....institutions have created those changes.....they profit greatly from those changes and interestingly most of YOU folks don't get it...so you waste your time trying to make sense of outdated material (like Market Profile)....instead of understanding what is going on and profiting from that, most of you will be on the losing side of that equation. I mentioned this a couple of times, but people keep banging their heads against a wall reading Dalton (and similar material)..... Good luck with that....

Honestly there are a lot of things one might claim to use after the fact....for me it is a combination of data and experience.....for example I know that institutions and commercial interests are adjusting inventories to reflect re-pricing of both risk and debt assets. They also look at the broader landscape (whether we are "risk on" or "risk off") and finally in this environment while we wait for Friday's employment report, I expect informed participants to pre-position now and through the overnight market....the bond tells me whether I am correct....and I use it because those folks are primarily professionals, who do not make many mistakes in terms of valuation..as mentioned in my previous post I watch bond pricing and yield.....as they move all markets then react... I get it that most folks have to start with simple technical analysis....that's fine....but understand that the folks who have the horsepower to move these markets use a different approach (more in line with what I have just stated)....once you can get your mind around that, you get to where you use technical data to lean on (if you need it) and to confirm what you thought was going to happen... The attached chart shows the bond confirming the ES move as it takes out the IB to the downside....

Once again we are pressed for time and have to exit this trade...happily we are close to our target (of 10 ES points)

Posted this to our blog today We don't have time to do much more except to note that the uppermost horizontal line is the close of Euro Cash....and to point out the relationship between the bond and futures...price and yield changes affect futures & equities pricing...if you don't understand the relationship you really shouldn't be in the game on a day like today...for those interested, ask yourself what group of folks would be interested in buying a bond paying 2.5%, holding it for 10 years....? If we get a move above that point, it could turn into an excellent payday...if not that could be it for today.... Good luck

So I like this (previous post) response Rande....clearly people DO have the option to decide at any point in time to overcome their largely self imposed limitations....on a personal level I don't see very much of that happening....but I know the possibility exists....I've been there. From the standpoint of trying to teach people.....I start by screening for adult behavior first, and THEN I look at other factors that might help a person to make that leap....I also believe that try as you may.....people will generally NOT make significant changes unless motivated in a significant way...I try to impress upon struggling traders just how different life can be IF they can obtain success in this endeavor...sometimes that works...more often than not however people hang on to the self limiting beliefs and behaviors that have directed their lives previously....and that (in my opinion) is a shameful waste.... I like your basic concept and I imagine that a certain group of folks will benefit....I hope you have success with it... Good luck Steve

Here are today's trades.....I took the first but not the second as I had prior obligations today By now folks following this should see that the system provides a nice framework for entries....in my experience one of the problems that retail traders have is that they don't take time to understand the relationships between Asia, Europe and US markets....our charts always show the close of Euro Cash Markets and today, (if you look closely) you can see that the reversal (short at the top of the IB) was a very nice profitable trade.... I will be stopping my posts on Friday, as my next class is scheduled to start shortly thereafter...for those who expressed interest I will get in touch later this week....for those who expressed an interest by did not get into the class my apologies....I hope I made it clear why I thought I was not the right person for you....and I hope my suggestions for alternative resources helps you to reach your goals... Good luck

Simplicity is so important (consider the titles of my threads) Simplicity (in terms of screen display) is the minimum necessary to (quickly) make profitable decisions. Boom

As has been pointed out by others before me, your claim to have tested (anything really) means nothing....my comment stands and any reasonably intelligent person will do their own testing in order to obtain current data and make an informed decision. Ken Shaleen's work also stands on its own....to each his/her own....I use it to my benefit...and I notice many others whom I respect do the same....as with all things DO YOUR OWN TESTING...

Chuck LeBeau's "chandelier" stop is by far the best I have ever seen.....(apologies to the original poster).....google it and use it.....and for those who really want to do this right....there are other ways to make trade management decisions....the best professional system I ever saw was based on the work of Ken Shaleen....using open interest and volume to determine directional bias... For the handful of folk really interested in moving forward, these are the resources I would start with...instead of the amateur hour crap that gets posted here...

Changed my mind with regard to my post If a person feels that they have given it their "all"...then try something else If a person feels down and depressed and has lost a lot of money.....I like to quote an old friend who said that "nothing is ever as good or as bad as it seems".....find a way to recoup your losses and live to fight another day. Good luck

I suspect that advice given here is largely ignored.....Ed Seykota's quote (from DB's post) is pretty accurate....losers are losers because they define themselves in those terms.....winners have a positive self image and when THEY lose, they take the time to figure out why, then they go out and find the tools necessary to "transform" themselves (*back into winners....) and although no one is going to pay much attention or give a damn, I have been there......and I know just how much pure hell it can be to have no idea of where to start to turn it around....like all things in life, you either rise to the occasion or you don't. * I start out with the idea that we are all capable of being winners naïve I know but its my freakin life and that's how I choose to waste it....