steve46

I am doing pretty well, thanks for asking... On the other hand, to date you have mostly made silly erroneous assumptions and offered passive-aggresive commentary and of course now you are graduating on to something more characteristic of a developmentally delayed teenager... I think the tip off for me was when you decided to quote some obsolete crap about "spikes" from Dalton's book..now what was your backpedaling silly excuse for that...oh yes...it was a "Legacy Concept"...thats a good one...I will certainly remember that... Ok so I have uncovered your real persona...that wasn't so difficult was it Sigmund...? I believe we are done here....

but perhaps not as good as you claiming to be a "nuclear engineer"....and more recently the head trader for an "Internet Listed Hedge Fund"...... What will it be next week champ? What do you think folks....Secret Agent?.....Brain Surgeon? Navy Seal?.....Cross Dressing Postal Worker?.......Interior Decorating Ballerina...? And since we are at it, what is the SEC registration ID of your "Hege Fund"? I would like to look it up. I am sure you are so proud of your work that you are more than willing to Identify your employer..... Thanks Steve

One of the things I enjoy about you is your ability to maintain a viewpoint even in the face of obvious "divergent" or problematic data.... Apparently the move from 1371 down to 1363 area is a "scalp".... I think most folks would consider it a decent trade... One gets the impression you've had something to drink

Context is something that we create princess.....for example when you arrived here, you choose to suggest to us that you were a "nuclear engineer" and more recently the chief trader of an "Internet listed hedge fund" (thats a good one).... I fully expect that at some point in the future you will claim to have been the Queen of England in another life....

Losing money is quite a motivator...everyone who trades gets a taste of that bitter drink....everything else aside, you are to be congratulated for finding a method that works for you.

Characterizing price as crossing in both directions is facile....and shortsighted...the fact is that price has returned to 1370 repeatedly...since you seem to have suffered a loss of short term memory, I will attach the chart....as can plainly be seen, price returns to 1370 in the afternoon session. The reason for that return has to do with balance and imbalance of buy and sell orders. As long as the shorts control the market, it continues to be an easy reference point for a short entry...naturally you wouldn't have taken it, because as you mention "price is crossing that number in both directions"....right? By the way, on my time based pivots worksheet for today...the important numbers were the previous daily and weekly open....for today those numbers were Weekly at 1375.25 and Daily at 1366.50.......those are potential entries depending on how I read the tape.....I have no problem with alternative interpretations of market action....but consider that when you suggest that I missed something.....without knowing what you are talking about, it makes you look ignorant..... For those interested, professionals call this MATD which stands for "morning after a trend day" although that price action has changed a bit...it no longer is confined to the next morning, the concept is valid....I continue to use it...for today the "balance" area is the middle blue band....traders tried to find buyers above, sellers below...if you scan left, you see the origin of that balance/imbalance area in the last candle of the previous day's action....THAT (I would suggest) is what real acceptance or rejection of value is about on an intraday basis....

I'm sure this is just coincidence. My "understanding" is after all, very limited....but in the attached chart you can see price trying to take out 1370, closing above it briefly, then failing...

Karoshiman Can we exit the thread please. I will answer but don't want to continue here....I'll either start a new thread or provide a comment by PM....and for the record (yet again) I am NOT training traders, I do NOT have anything to sell ANYONE.....and by all means MMS please feel free to check my PM queue to verify my comment. Best Regards Steve

Quite a lot of backpedaling and bailing water going on here...by all means continue with that...but by the way your boat is sinking... One final note....the idea of a "legacy concept" wasn't mentioned in your original post....shouldn't make a difference (unless you are trying to make money).....Apparently that is another "gift from the gods"......lol

Yes....thats part of what I do...I learned the hard way that it is impossible to keep focused on my charts every minute of the day...I can't do it....and when I tried to teach, I noticed that others had the same problem (thought it was about my age, but its not)....so I went back and looked for specific time periods where these kinds of "tests" occurred....also I had help from colleagues who worked in the programmed trade business...They pointed out that the progammers, being human, tend to use "time of day" as one ( "if/then" ) input for the activation of certain strategies... Now as for when....I won't give you details but I will point you in the right direction....One of the ways I determine "possible" tests of a distribution is by looking at the previous day and the same day of the previous week and month...apparently there is a symmetry to the markets that may be seen when you look back at these time periods....if you are active in the markets I think we have all see times when a specific range or a specific price acts as support or resistance over successive days....most recently it was 1370....check it out for yourself... Hope this helps Steve Edit You know, now that I think about it further I am not the only trader to view markets this way...if you read Mark Fisher's book "The Logical Trader" he also suggests as part of his system that you look for repeating patterns on a weekly and 30 day basis....Just a thought.

Offering an alternative (and in this instance "correct" ) explanation is not negative unless you have an investment in one viewpoint.... or in one person's opinion....if you don't like my comment or my way of expressing myself..perhaps you should ignore me.....problem solved. What amuses me, is when folks show up, suggest or claim, they have superior knowedge and then present data that isn't accurate.....I don't let that stand...sorry if it makes you uncomfortable.

No idea what you hear when someone speaks....not my problem as to when a spike occurs...that is part of "context"....personally I look for specific characteristics with regard to distribution and time of day...(as I said in my post) As to the rapidity of the retrace...I was there trading...it is only my opinion. I leave it to others to determine for themselves...

Interesting... Actually spikes on an intraday time frame are "created" primarily by automated execution as price hits a specific high or low of a distribution....The trademark of automated execution is the quick response as price tests a distribution extreme..If you go to a longer time frame chart and simply scan left, you may see that the price retracement coincides with an "up bar or candle" that forms a "ledge" and/or is at the origin of a previous trending move....(what a surprise)....this is in part how I generate the supply/demand nodes on my charts... In addition, there are some folks who know about this and "wait for" these opportunities at specific times of the trading day...they look for these trade entries because in this market (S&P Futures) a test of a distribution extreme usually results in a low risk entry and a profitable trade...those of us who actually do this for a living call this a "layup"... As for what it means on Monday....that depends on where the big boys (institutions and funds) want to move it based on Sunday's European news....it has very little to do with Mr. Dalton's commentary... By the way I am enjoying the comedy act....please continue...

WRB This person (onesmith) obviously has some significant emotional issues he needs to work through...unfortunately he insists on doing that HERE instead of obtaining help from a qualifed mental health professional. Congrats on your seemingly inexhaustible patience and self control...(I would have told the annoying little putz to stuff it by now).... As to the question I think Gosu has it right...and for the record I don't think a skilled professional can afford to teach at this point in time....in case others haven't noticed this is a very difficult economy and trading is one of the few jobs where a skilled talented person can generate income quickly...no matter what a teacher charges, a good trader can do better on his own...I certainly can... Good luck in the markets WRB and thanks onesmith for your comedic impersonation of a hysterical little twit....

Interesting the types of questions that amateurs ask about MP. Clearly what everyone is looking for is psychological comfort....some data point(s) that they can consistently lean on. In answer to the question, "what can you use to tell you where the market is going", I believe it was Josh who suggests that "nothing can tell you that".....I disagree.... "Time- Based Pivots" are used by (at least some) top tier institutions to display various price "targets" for each time period from yearly down to the previous day....While one cannot guarantee that markets will reach those targets, the fact that big institutions are willing to commit capital to that agenda is important. Last year was a great of example as institutions intervened repeatedly to move the market up to the yearly 1360+ target. This was especially apparent during the last month of the year.... By the way, much like "Market Profile", time-based pivots also show distributions of price activity over various time frames. They display that information in a different manner, but the principle is about the same, and time based pivots include the previous day's value area high and low (but not the POC). Instead traders who use time based pivots look for tests of each time periods open, high and low as places where they might find favorable entry or take profits. As regards shifts in the VPOC, there is a school of thought that suggests that these shifts are caused in part by timing of each markets open, release of economic reports and the response that follows. It is thought that these "shocks" cause a flurry of activity that dies down (much like the aftershocks of an earthquake) with time and that "trail" of activity "causes" or is in part responsible for the shift... I hope this helps Steve

I believe it was Blue Horseshoe who asked about this trade....I learned it by several names "equalizer", and "close-out" and "marktomarket".....the pattern for this one is what I call "reverse basing"....a basing pattern occurs when price makes a ledge and somewhere past the midpoint you see a lone spike and then price resumes its "ledgemaking"....generally speaking your entry is anytime after that spike and your direction should be opposite that spike...in this case the spike was "up" so the trade is by definition a short entry......the pattern initiates at 12:40 and the move begins at 12:57....There is more to it than that but that is all that I am willing to discuss... Also folks please be advised that I am not going to be posting much anymore.....I started a newsletter advisory for my institutional clients....and I just don' have enough time to do everything I would like to do......tried to start a newsletter for retail traders a while back but it didn't fly....as I said previously I understand the suspicion and skepticism that surrounds vendors on this site...I am with you on that...too bad...some of us actually know what we are doing....but by the time YOU find out, its too late....oh well. Best of luck in the markets...

Posting this now before I run out of gas and fall asleep. As we can see price retraced up to offer a very nice "recharge" entry point just below 92 On the lelft we see the larger time frame and the ellipse shows where the retrace opportunity occurred On the right the shorter 1 min time frame and the algo pattern appears... As expected we see the resumption of trend down to 86 Just as with yesterday's example, I am using volatiity bands to calc my profit target. Based on those bands I believe we could see 78 and perhaps even 71 before the US session Well I am off to get some sleep Best of luck tomorrow folks Steve

A beautiful gift short this evening (early morning really) after the news about Spain's little problem selling bonds got out.....(Spain's 10 year at 5.75) This one started at 1397 (obviously) when we saw two touches (if you scan to the left you see the "first" test of that area). The ellipse encloses the algorithmic pattern that I like to use as entry signal. what you don't see is the DAX and the time & sales... Anyway this was part of a larger retracement that we have been waiting for...I would like to see a test of 1386 and ultimately to 1378. We will see when the BOE comes out with their policy comment.

This is one of the times when "size matters". In order to get in or out (in seconds) you have to have sufficient liquidity at the price(s) you are looking for. I have been out of the game now for a while, however one thing is clear, if you have to get out at or near a specific price or range of prices, you have to plan ahead and you MIGHT have to get in or out when liquidity is available rather than exactly when you want to....In actuality my experience is very specialized and somewhat limited....I worked a high touch desk so I had to make sure (as much as I could) that I got out pretty near to my target....If for example my target got hit early (rather than a "few seconds" before the close) then THAT area is where I would start to scale out... In markets as active as the US futures index, there are a range of strategies being executed at any one time....today sellers wanted out 10 minutes before close of cash....I noticed that they did not finish until after close of cash and that selling continued for almost an hour into the Globex open... Good luck in the markets folks Steve

I work the overnight market and parts of the RTH I trade specific time periods because I have worked out (backtested) where the opportunities are likely to occur... For the Globex market, the obvious opportunities are the opens of each market, and the time periods that setup the economic reports. To find these you simply use an economic calendar and look at the schedule of releases. Although each vendor likes to think that they know which of the reports has most impact, I would suggest you obtain some education so that you can determine this for yourself... For the RTH session I prepare for the open starting one hour prior to the release of any critical economic report...I have a method for scanning previous price action to determine if "informed" participants are pre-positioning (thus believe that they know which way a report will go)....and if I see that I "go with" that pre-positioning move...I call it an "algorithmic setup" and since it looks the same to me I take that trade every time I see it...so far this year it is providing favorable entry (meaning I make money) about 80% of the time. Once the RTH session opens I trade that open if I see an entry...If I have a position on I stay with it....if not I continue to monitor until about 8:30am PST....at that time you can see on a chart whether the market is going into lunchtime mode....If I see an opportunity I take it, if not I take a nap until about 10am....I get up and look at the screen.....it is pretty easy to tell whether participants are going to re-estabish a pre-existing trend at that point. If I don't see an opportunity, I go back to sleep until just before noon local time...I get up and trade the noon balloon, and opportunities that follow at 12:30 and 12:45....at the close of cash I watch to see how the market closes. If we have had a trending day, some percentage of participants will want to liquidate to close their books. That causes what I know to be an "equalization" trade...which is an easy couple of points....at that point I am done for the day..... Because I restrict my attention to specific time periods there is no element of "watching paint dry"...either I see opportunity and act on it (during specific time periods) or I leave the screen.. I realize that most folks would be skeptical of claims that a person could get it right 80% of the time...so I post this snip of my most recent trades...naturally my hit rate fluctuates....usually somewhere between 68% to 85% or so when I am on a hot streak.. Once more and for the record, I am NOT teaching any more (please do not pm me) Good luck folks Steve

I took my 5 point scale at 1394.50, holding the balance for ultimate target of 1399+ or a breakeven stopout. One or the other.

Hello I took this entry as price tested the 3rd standard deviation band at 1388.50 For people interested in this, the reason I use this is that my "numbers" (my time based pivots) only go down to 1399.50....so if I want ot trade using my system I have to add on a way to deal with days that show bigger volatility. I do that by calculating volatility bands originating from a previous endpoint, I still use supply demand nodes, and finally I do not enter unless the tape looks good (I still need to have favorable conditions for entry)... On the attached chart I would point out the following; First, that initial touch of the 3rd standard deviation is often followed by an immediate reaction. traders who have experience with this method know that you can get a quick initiall profit by simply taking the number and using the tape for confirmation. You have to have faith in your ability to calc the numbers correctly, but if you do this provides quick breathing room Second, in this market after the initial move you always get a "shake-out" or retracement to kick out or strand the amateurs...this is also a chance for experienced people to either get on board if you missed the initial entry or to recharge or add on to the position, I show both the initial entry and the "secondary" with green arrows Finally, as with all trades what matters is your ability to manage the position once you are in...if you have a small account as so many of you do, the best method is to take a small piece at 2 points and hold the rest as long as possible Best of luck to you all Steve

"Did I mention that I/we do this real time, and not after it's already happened?" Yes Josh you have mentioned and it and it is similar to the passive agressive infantile crap that you have posted in the past Have I mentioned that before....?

So in response to the additional remarks I have a few things to say First, regarding Friday's action right off the open.... There's a big difference between professionals and amateurs.....most of it relating to preparation....notice when you read posts here (on this site)....and this is true of every one of you....there is NO MENTION OF HOW TO PREPARE for the open.....try to find one example on this site....even after years of doing this, it still takes me about an hour to really prepare correctly to SEE and ANTICPATE what will happen on the open...most of "the problem" is that amateurs simply don't know how to prepare and what analysis to conduct...not my problem and I don't mean to make anyone an object lesson, but someone should point it out. As to how to read the tape...on the thread that Josh mentioned I did post a bit of instruction about how to do it....as I have mentioed several times, I don't think it can be done on a website by posting instructions....I was just trying to give as much information about it as I could...To summarize, the process is straightforward...when price tests a key reference area, I monitor the Time & Sales strip, $VOLD & $ADD, and the NYSE Tick, shifting my attention from one to the other in about 5 second intervals...what I am looking for is to see whether the bid is held How do you know if the bid is held As price tests an area, you watch time & sales....if price tests from above, moving down you will see red as sellers try to take out that level....for beginniners the best way to do it is simply to watch color and not try to look at size....what you will see is the whole length of the strip turns red as seller assault that level...then you shift to the tick and you take note of the absolute level. you want to see the tick drop to near or just below zero on the first test. ADD/VOLD will provide the backdrop however they react slowing so you simply scan and take note of the levels...you should see red there as well initially...as buyers respond and take up the selling volume, you will see green coming into the T&S strip....then as you scan the tick you may see it continue down slightly, then reverse. Price may move slightly below your key reference area, however you should be looking for it to reverse after a slight excursion below a ledge or below your key level...at that point you should be looking for the TICK to move up, for both ADD and VOLD to hook or round over to the upside and for the T&S to "turn mostly green"...this suggests that the level is holding and may reverse (from down to up) as buyers come in to jump on board... In this market that initial selling at the bottom or test of a key area is partly profesionals taking profit and closing positions, and partly new blood coming in (usually amateurs) who think that the move still has legs....if they are wrong (and ussually they are) that volume is absorbed as new buyers come in to create an imbalance toward the buy side...if you haven't gotten shaken out by the small excursion below the level, then you simply hold....in the ES market that initial move will usually be worth 2 points min before the first retrace. This is just part of what I try to teach my students, although to be honest it takes time, patience and a bit of repitition, before they really get it.... One final comment (for Josh)...the idea that a trader doesn't KNOW what is coming isn't entirely true....after you have done this for a while, you learn to anticipate cycical behavior in this market AND those of us who read the tape, can SEE both major reversals and minor pullbacks....its true we cannot know if a pullback or reversal has legs. but we CAN see it coming (I certainly can).... Hope that helps. Steve

Just for the heck of it, I took a look at the site...I think the gentleman has the right idea as to how the market works generally. As to whether the indicators are "better" or just crap I really don't know.... Regarding the Hilbert Transform and John Ehlers, well his system (Ehlers) has been reviewed by Future's Truth I believe, so you can get a bit more info about the concept there....and you might want to check as how to the systems Ehlers designed based on that concept have done over the passed few years. There should be a track record available to the public. I am also skeptical about the gentleman's claim that he has "improved" Ehler's basic concept...He certainly talks a good game but whether he has the math and programming skills to do that is from my point of view unproven... Regarding the other indicators I am somewhat skeptical...I do the same thing without having to resort to any indicators and I get the job done very nicely...If they work at all what you are payng for it seems to me, is the convenience of not having to take the time to learn how to recognize those signals using freely available data. Personally if they work, I would be all for it, because it took me several years to learn it on my own...so thats quite a savings in time alone.....again I will repeat I am skeptical because most "shortcuts" to success don't' work out well....