steve46

Okay, there are some good ideas presented....however collaboration works best when the people collaborating have something of substance to share...and they do so without having a hidden agenda. When that isn't the case, or as in this case when the original poster is actually trolling for customers, then the proposed collaboration is more often the intro to a marketing plan "Originally Posted by Predictor » I use volume profiles extensively. I developed a method to do this... in fact one can read more. I may write an article on some of these ideas in the future. Most probably don't understand the VP except those who really studied it.. away from books and such. " In my view if the gentleman had given this a bit more thought and perhaps provided something of substance PRIOR to this disguised advertisment, I would be less skeptical...but he decided to go the other way...suggesting that he MAY do something of substance in the undetermined future......lol.. and of course when I point this out I assume that there's going to be a personal attack so lets get that out of the way....first, I don't teach retail customers....already posted that several times...I don't sell mentorships, books articles, room memberships, etc...I work with professionals sent to me by their employers...and folks who know me here, know that I have posted and continue to post subtance that folks can use as a basis for advancing their understanding without having to spend money...that just leaves those who got their feeling hurt because they were on the wrong end of the dialogue....I can deal with that.... Good luck

In answer to your question, professionals who have to produce a result ( in order to keep their jobs), often use a systematic (rule based) approach, however the rules aren't anything like what retail traders use...thats because they have access to more capital (and better information) than most retail traders, and because they tend to work with other support staff who base their work on statistics and psychology. If we take the concept of Market Profile as one example, you could read books (like those written by Dalton for example) and you would see that there are some basic things that profile traders COULD do (identifying and trading tests of value for example). On the other hand, as time moves on, others come in to propose changes, aimed at improving the result that can be obtained trading by those rules....some of these "improvements" you can learn about others that retail traders don't hear about for some period of time... One thing that you should be aware of....its a good idea to learn to research ideas using simple basic statistics...if you don't have that kind of background or aptitude, and you want to learn this business, it might be a good idea to start down that road, either by purchasing some basic books or taking the basic classes (or both). Its also a good idea to learn to use a spreadsheet in order to do your own research... Good luck

Rob your comment is one that I agree with. I characterize the current market in this fashion. It seems that for the present, the market wants to consolidate within a range for a bit, then everybody decides to move north or south a bit, then back to consolidation mode. This seems to be true whether or not the broader market is trending. This behavior is intentional by the way, as institutions know that market profile users (and those using other systems as well) have difficulty identifying value (accurately) in a trending market. Ironically in my class, I have a couple of volume profile traders who are (I should say "were") taking a beating because they couldn't accurately get a handle on value AND they did not seem to have an accurate way to determine what type of trading the market could sustain (initiative or responsive). Unfortunately you need a time reference for that.....lol. by the way, just a side note...although I reference "my class" and "students" I am not training retail customers, only institutional clients sent to me by their employers....so please no PMs regarding training... thanks.

I have to say that I become skeptical when I read statements to the effect that other folks (except of course the author) are not likely to understand a subject as widely used as volume profile...I think thats not likely to be the case.... Nice "self promotional" touch though....not very subtle but probably effective given the audience....

Hello Pattuca For the record I am (I have said this once before in this thread) teaching a class so the only time I can visit is during coffee breaks. and once again for the record, I don't view the world in the way you propose. "inferior" isn't part of my vocabulary....I do however think of folks as either adult or infantile....and since I have already raised children, I am not interested in putting up with infantile behavior here.. JohnW Thanks for taking the time to look up the data....you took the time and made the effort to evaluate the information like an adult...all thats missing is the context...I will talk about that in my thread on "characterizing markets". Hopefully I can show folks how to integrate the concepts of Market Profile with automated execution so that they use it to improve their trading. Good luck

Amazing........................ so we took a bit of a coffee break here and I posted this on everyone's screen....hope you won't mind as it helps to lighten the mood.....you see some of these folks were really taking a beating this year...so we all had a nice laugh (I appreciate your insight)... and along side it, we have this attached screen showing one of my "implausible" and perhaps non-existent algo patterns. This one, at the bottom right hand side of the chart is "text book" For the one or two folks who get it... over the last couple of months, I have posted several examples over in Negotiator's ES thread....On a generally down day, this one produced a 4 point move (so far)....I won't be posting these examples again...you see there's just "too many bots"....

Over the years I have accumulated a lot of experience with folks who program several forms of automated execution and although I don't claim to have the same level of expertise as a top level coder given enough time and many demonstrations, I learned to appreciate the elegance and economy of the code they produce....and the many nuances that experienced coders put into their creations.... Generally speaking the programs that intercept order flow and act on it are what interest me most....the actions they produce are imperceptible to traders working on any time frame larger than 1 min.....however if you go below that 1 min threshold and simply observe what you may see are the following..... 1. the importance of coordinating time and price 2. that there are repetitive patterns that occur at specific times throughout the day 3. these patterns tend to synchronize themselves with the origins and terminations of previous trend moves One of the most interesting is rather simple in that it intercepts order flow, analyzes the content and matches it to context (order "condition" for example)...checking for acceleration that usually preceeds a move as orders matched exhaust volume in the queue (at each price). Within that process it produces a pro-rata estimation of what it will take to "tip" the scales and start to move price directionally....from that point its not a great leap to producing an order, either to take profit or go flat...thats the basic outline of one of many automated scripts at work in today's market. Thats about all I am willing to say about it at this point... Best of luck to you...

Can't really do more than make reference to this because I am in the midst of a professional class.... In terms of what scalping used to be, I recognize some of the comments. Clearly if you have the luxury of seeing the order flow before the public does, that is (used to be) a significant advantage....however in markets that are now dominated by professional interests working mostly upstairs, that is mostly gone....and of course being able to turn to the guy next to you to get out when things went wrong was also a nice perk. I don't miss getting elbowed, stabbed with pencils, stepped on by folks wearing platform heels, spit on, and having my hearing go slowly south because of the decibel levels....and that was just while putting my coat on (just kidding)... and on to the important part....some of you may be offended but...scalping today has not much to do with what you folks are talking about...at least not when it comes to making serious money.....first I can't imagine a retail trader scalping anything.....you just cannot overcome expenses paying retail commission..I am sure people think it is possible, but in the end it is not viable as a single game profession....you have to have (own or lease) a membership on one of the exchanges to even have a chance at making money that way.... As far as the mechanics again it isn't anything like any of you have posted....why because of the preponderance of automated execution....talking about S&P futures now....the noise to signal ratio isn't there and it becomes very difficult if not impossible to quantify risk AT ANY LEVEL.....unless you understand how the bots work and where to take your shot....and I don't hear any of you displaying that understanding... Strangely enough one of you posted that IF you had a scalping program and you got on the right side, why not let it run......and for those who understand how automated execution works, that is exactly what "happened" to scalping....once folks (some folks) figured it out, they saw that the primary problem is to find a level of granularity (time scale on your charts) so that you can recognize when the programs are hitting.....once you learn to identify one (of the many) algorithmic patterns, you still have to read the tape, but THEN you have a truly high probabilty entry...and that is why you let it run.....because once you are on the right side....odds of getting more than a couple of ticks are significant...why is that....because the other programs tend to piggyback early moves off of a reversal, and that process creates a circular momentum that lasts for 6-8 ticks just on its own....

In both my first and second classes, I found that academic achievement was a strong indicator for success in trading...This is old news, as most wall street firms require a strong academic record from candidates.....and thats just to get an interview..

Hello Josh I will get to it at some point, however I do have some things to think about...this is one of the core elements of a class that I put on each year for institutional clients....I have to make some decisions as to what to put into the public domain...I will do that and get back to this as soon as possible. Thanks for your interest Steve

Ive spent a good deal of time with students trying to model the "right" mindset and an equal amount of time recently learning a method that helps retail traders to insulate themselves from the stress of managing a trade..... There are two parts to the method....one is breath control and now that I have seen it work, I teach it to every student...and the second is what I call "talk therapy"....and in that process I go into the concepts that seem to be at the root of the problem (primarily fear of loss and the loss of self image or self esteem that goes with loss).... Ultimately one has to have their house in order, meaning that you have to have a system that YOU have faith in....then you have to have a reasonable understanding of your own mental issues, and finally you need a way to manage your emotional response as you trade For those interested the first step is to identify the problem you have....accurately The next step is to learn about yourself and how YOU respond to the stress of trading in that process you learn to anticipate (and to "map" out) the negative responses once you are filled on a trade and then you put something in place to block or interrupt that negative "chain of responses" At first it is time consuming and it may seem difficult, as you progress and are able to better manage your emotions, it becomes automatic.... The model is much like leaning to drive....at first it seems daunting and difficult and you have to pay attention to what you are doing...later as you have more repetition, you can drive and maintain a conversation with a passenger.... Hope this helps Steve

I thought this chart was interesting....looking at the chart carefully and including data prior to the open, I thought the "correct" entry was at the open with stop just below the horizontal line.....you waited quite a long time for your entry and if I am interpreting it correctly, that was just prior to a reversal. Frankly I am surprised no one else has commented on this. Whats missing from your chart on the first swing, is the ability to scan left to see where your previous highs or points of consolidation are...this doesn't reflect on you...there's no way to put all the data you need to evaluate properly, but to adequately decide how to handle the open I think you need to be able to see more data from the previous transactions (previous session). Thanks

reading through the thread, clearly some folks do understand that as markets move through time they evolve.....we have more international participants, more automated execution, and a much more prounounced effect from economic news just to name a few things.... When I came into the business we started by executing for the customer and using that information to help us in our trading...although we did not have complete information, we had enough to help us to identify a primary trend. When we left the business we lost that advantage and had to learn a different game...fortunately we also learned how to accurately "characterize a market"...and once you get that, you always have a way to adapt to the markets on any time frame. Trading on the intraday time frame offers challenges but like any other pursuit it can be done provded you approach it with the proper tools... Characterize the market Adopt the appropriate risk management program for your account Learn to react to economic news and Take the trades your system offers, in a disciplined manner This last element is important...many retail traders think that they can simply pick and choose and make a lot of money...you can't....once you have a significant mathematical advantage you need to take the trades in order to see the full expression of your edge...to the extent that you pick & choose, you randomize the trades and that usually means you lose...most decent systems have similar results...you win a little, lose a little, then you catch the occasional runner. Much of the pros success relates to staying out of trouble and knowing when to be aggressive.... As you can see "we're not in Kansas anymore toto"....it isn't simple by any means...so it you have the resources to do it for yourself great.....if not I suggest you find a good skilled teacher and learn the game the way most of us did.... Good luck Steve

Actually princess, you and your "never lose again" type comments represent the same stupid misleading crap that causes people problems when they try to learn this challenging business...so I don't have a lot of patience with you either..... and just to be fair, on the off chance that I am completely wrong...if ANY of you have read this gentleman's comment and from that point on have NEVER been on the losing side of a trade please take the time to say so here on this thread....surely there must be at least one of you.... Looking forward to hearing all about that Lovely talking to you...

If a trader simply keeps track of their day, noting trades taken, the result and reason(s) for taking the trade, they might (if they take the time to review) start to see patterns in terms of how they think, how they select trades and if they are conscientious in documenting their actions, how they react to their choices.... In my most recent class I had students document all trades for one month. One of the most interesting things I saw from this exercise, was when one of my students discovered that whenever they took a losing trade, they tended to withdraw from the screen for quite a long time....seems that they were emotionally hurt by the loss and had to take a bit of time before they could come back to the screen....as it turns out this "time out" cost them quite a bit, because when they reviewed the data, it was clear that they were missing out on valid setups that often occurred only minutes later....once they started to see just how much opportunity they were missing, what they needed to do became clear to them...in time they were able to make the needed adjustment (to put their losses behind them) and move on....clearly keeping a record of their trades and their reaction to each trade helped them....

Hello I monitor markets by country and time period...Asia during the early afternoon, Europe...throughout the evening, I trade the DAX and London open and if possible pre-position myself to trade the S&P 500 Futures when they open at 6:30am PST.....

In my opinion the best way to maintain consistency and improve trading is to see it modeled for you by a skilled practitioner on a day by day basis. The second option is to "do it yourself"....and by that I mean...that as you encounter the inevitable ambiguities that present themselves during a trading day....you ask yourself "what can I learn from this"......you take notes, you analyze your responses to the data, and eventually you develop a situational data base that you refer to whenever you have to. Consistency is about repetition....improvement on the other hand requires that a person obtain an better understanding of the subject at hand....If you are at the upper limit of your skill level, no matter now many "reps" you do, you still won't improve.....so my advice is to find a person who is better at it than you...and try to develop that resource.... Good luck

I don't know if any of you have heard of Regan....he is a young guy who used to be on several webcasts daily from the CME floor. His commentary was for lack of a better word, simplistic, and many of his appearances were to promote his system (which I thought was similar to Larry Levins)...except for the pyramid scheme part....lol Maybe its just me, but how could a person of presumably average intelligence think this up and not understand that at some point in the future it was going to blow up in his face? Of course I think the same must be true of Madoff, Stanford, and any number of others in the past, all the way back to the original...a guy named Charles Ponzi Charles Ponzi - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Thanks Rande for the kind words Until recently I had decided not to teach again. Unfortunately I was one of those folks with an account at MF Global, so I was taught a "lesson" of my own about trust. Fortunately I have been able to recover much of my account so the damage was minimal. What I have decided to do in future relates to this incident. Based on what I have learned I decided to see if it was possible to take a small account (less than $10,000) and make a profit. I have never tried it myself and in the past I have counseled folks not to try...especially for newbies, I think it puts a bit too much emotional strain on a trader and that seems to have a negative effect on their ability to make good decisions. In the process of working on this problem I came upon something unexpected. I learned a simple technique that seems to insulate a person from the many negative thoughts that can intrude, both before the trade, after they are filled on their entry and during the management phase.. Now as this last part of my test process comes to a close frankly I am surprised that this process seems to work with relatively inexperienced folks. In fact I am so encouraged that I may give teaching another try and if so I will contact you.. Thanks again Steve

Historically the general (long term) drift of financial markets is up That drift is punctuated periodically by "black swan" events that tend to be pointed down.... One might benefit (if he or she had the resources necessary) by doing an analysis of the difference between secular and cyclical market swings. Most retail traders aren't willing to spend the time necessary to do that research. As a result I would guess that most of you do not know how to accurately determine which type of market we are currently in...the result of that deficit is that for the majority of retail traders, you have about a 50/50 chance of getting "surprised" and taken out by the odd "event".... In my office we used to have a kind of fire drill that we went through periodically just to practice our response to the odd "black swan" event....as I recall, we did not do this to try to avoid the event completely but to minimize the losses that we forecast would occur. One of those measures was to prefer the short side as risk was perceived to increase past a specific threshold...sorry I can't be more specific but I owe an allegiance to old colleagues who are still active.. Good luck

Read zdo's comment with interest.....certainly true that many here pursue "debunking" in a misguided fashion.....and with a bit too much zeal... I can tell you from experience....when I started to take applications for my first class, all of the students had been TL members....however (and I think this is important) few of them had posted on the website (as I recall only one)...what they all shared in common was that they were self directed professionals with a history of previous success, and one might expect, they indicated that they made decisions independent of what they read (both pro & con). As regards Mr. Felton...I still have concerns about any vendor unwilling to trade a real account, about comments with regard to "upselling", and at the end of this thread where the gentleman promises to provide a part of the system for folks to try out...apparently that never happened. These and several other issues raise "red flags" for me but the bottom line is that people seem to read and consider what others post, but in the end, make up their own minds before patronizing a vendor....I would hope that part continues.

Rather then go back to sleep I'll post one example of a pre-position entry On the chart the pre-position entry starts with a relatively wide range candle down just to the right of the ellipse.....this takes price into an area of previous "buying" activity (dark blue band)....the algo pattern exhibits itself (inside the ellipse) and the only other element of the opportunity is time...the initial signal shows itself at 6am, the algo completes at 6:09 (close enough for me)....the process is supposed to provide "breathing room" defined as about 2 points of profit....if we get to that point I stay with it into the open, manage risk and scale out. 6:40 is a possible reversal time, so I watch that point and evaluate the action. If the pullback is steep and the tick pattern shows reversal I get out. If not I stay with it and scale out until we reach 10 points.

Here's a pattern that I have mentioned previously (many times) called an "algo" in this pattern price tests a specific point at a specific time ("time & price") and each time the bid holds....as the bots "see" this they feed orders to buy into the system and continue to do so until A.) they have a specific profit target or B.) another bot overcomes the system and reverses the trend....and of course this is but one example of how automated execution effects markets these days. In response to one of the previous comments....there are no "masses" to buy or sell anything...very few "masses" have any discretionary cash, having lost their homes, jobs, and whatever savings they had over the last several years. This is a professional market and when you see lack of volume, what is happening is that professionals have obtained what they see as sufficient profit for the moment, or they are waiting for another time period where they can mark markets up or down with minimum capital outlay (risk). The prime times to put money to work are pre-open (what I have called pre-position opportunities in the overnight globex markets), followed by the open (RTH) and then beginning at 10am PST until the close. Because most institutional participants operate at or near the stroke of the hour and half hour, if you haven't got on board the trend by about 7:30 you are out of luck for the morning session. Notice the entry point on the right side of the ellipse (right at 7:30am PST) Yes there are exceptions, but I will take my chances with this scheme

Additional comment with regard to characterizing markets Earnings Season As relates to the broad market (US domestic markets in general) one has to be aware of earnings season. We keep track of what are called "bellweather" stocks, and we monitor markets in advance of earnings reports from those issues. Tomorrow for instance we expect reports from JP Morgan and Wells Fargo...both of significant import to the US economy. We also monitor what are known as "whisper numbers"...and here we suggest that interested parties simply "google" the term. You will find that there are a number of providers of this type of service (sorry but we cannot provide our source on that subject). In terms of characterization of markets, what is important to note is that market tend to move sideways in advance of the earnings reports of "bellweathers"....this sideways or horizontal development is natural as participants wait or try to gather intelligence that they can then use to establish positions prior to the actual report (another form of pre-positioning). Bond Auctions and Credit Rating Agencies Finally one should (if they have sufficient background education) be aware of bond yields and auction results both domestically and worldwide. This data provides (can provide) important clues as to how the market will act as that information becomes available. It is particularly important to professionals in the banking industry. If that isn't enough data to be concerned with, the actions of rating companies including Moodys, Standard & Poors etc Credit rating - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia These companies and the ratings they provide and update can affect markets dramatically. So, we have gotten a bit off track here but suffice to say that these data points can and do affect the way markets act on a daily basis. In our final comment (next post) we hope to offer a (relatively) simple way of characterizing the overnight market.

Noticed this article in ZeroHedge First MFG(lobal), Now PFG: Who Is Next? | ZeroHedge The Atlas Review provides a pretty decent "educated" opinion as to the financial health of the brokerages. I think this is probably as good a review of existing brokerage service companies as we can get at this point. and now when someone decides to comment about a Broker (as Khamore did about AMP), all you have to do is look them up....in this case you can see that AMP is in relatively good financial health.... Hope this helps Steve