steve46

A decent question (for a change) What I have found to be true (unfortunately) is that those who benefitted most from my comments were those who were members but did not post, or did not post very much.... I taught two (2) small classes of retail traders. It was the only time I have every taught retail traders....4 people in each class.....and only one of them posted here.....when I asked them why, they suggested to me that the level of discourse at Traderslaboratory was (and here they used a variety of discriptive terms) "unpleasant" "rude" "idiotic" "moronic" ".......I could go on, but that was the gist.... Thanks for the question

Nice to see some common sense appearing on the horizon

You aren't paying attention...I will go over it slowly My "students" (I call them clients) don't pay the bill, they don't pay directly or indirectly....the institution that employs them pays....and that institution is willing to pay my fee, because A) after traders work with me they make more money and B.) it is cheaper than going out and looking for replacements.... I treat "my clients" with respect because unlike the folks here, they always pay attention, they THINK carefully about the subjects at hand....they ask thoughtful questions, and they work hard (because their jobs are on the line).... By the way, I have already proven myself here...over a period of years....I have published a lot of free information that seems to have been useful to struggling traders....you....and a few others who seem to be upset...not so much.....in fact not at all....clearly you are "takers" rather than "givers"....If I am wrong point me to something that you have authored that has gotten a significant number of page views....Credibility?.....I am sure you can imagine where you can put your comments about credibility.... Lovely to have spoken with you once again...

Generally speaking the folks I work with are good people....working hard and trying to stay employed...thats why they are sent to me...unlike you they are serious about this profession and I leave the small comments to you as they seem to be your specialty... Sincerely

Markets can be characterized...that characterization is simply a model of how each market acts...once you have that, you can develop a plan to trade it... A person who says it can't be taught is a person who A). Doesn't have the skills to teach it. or B.) Doesn't really know how to do it consistently If we take the ES market for example, the characterization that works currently is based on the concept of balance and imbalance....simply put, balanced markets move in a range, while imbalanced markets trend....this happens on all time frames and once you know that you can trade responsively (long at the bottom of the range, short at the top) or initiatively (long or short as the market breaks out, and starts to trend).... What can't be taught is basic aptitude....but the skills based on that simple analysis (above) can be learned if one has the talent, the basic intelligence and motivation to learn it.... Amazing isn't it that the gentleman takes multiple paragraphs to explain what he can't do.... while have just put it in writing here in a few words.... Good luck folks....lol

Sorry to be late in replying....yours is a smart question...one that I have asked myself more than a couple of times...things have changed since I started using the DAX...used to be that the DAX "ruled" but now I have to agree that the EuroStoxx is the bigger dog (significantly more volume)...I am in process of changing from DAX to Stoxx

One gets the impression from both Onesmith and yourself......that your lips move as you type.....in my office the decsion whether to use Tradestation or to code our own was made by group vote (I voted for change)....the development phase was a group effort.....and the result was that we obtained a product that was more useful than Tradestation offered at that time... Amazing that we managed to get that done without benefit of your advice.....?

Mighty Mouse I think your assumptions are reasonable....given what we see...I am enjoying all the dancing around each point thats made....very entertaining...I think its very convenient to suggest that trading (among other things) cannot be taught....makes it easy to avoid taking responsibility if your "customers" spend money with you and then cannot make much use of it....it then becomes "someone else's problem".....I think this person should consider changing his handle from "Predictor" to "Disclaimer".....

"ALWAYS"? Here is the link to the Feb (this year) release of Tradestations "NEW" portfolio feature.... TradeStation Releases Powerful New Portfolio-Level Back-Testing Tool | Press and News | TradeStation I'm sure there is some way for you to dance around this too...... So once again for those capable of rational thought....Tradestation used to be the best, and for a while, the only real alternative for pros....then they got complacent, and other vendors came into the market and they were more responive to users requests....like myself, some customers got tired of waiting for TS to respond to their requests and decided to write their own.... by the way, there is a thread on TL where Urma Blume talks about issues that many of us struggled with before deciding to move to other platforms...here is the link...post #11 http://www.traderslaboratory.com/forums/e-mini-futures-trading-laboratory/9350-too-good-true-2.html

or in your case "catch up"......anything you can read about here is likely to be yesterday's news....Genetic algos were written about in the "Encyclopedia of Trading Strategies" by Jeffrey Katz and Donna McCormick published in 2000.....The technique dates back well before that so..........Been there, done that, got the T-shirt...... by the way the book is a good resource for those interested in developing strategies.....well written...and there's nothing wrong with using GA....I've seen skilled operators use that approach with good success... Here is a general resource for people interested in that approach... http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Genetic_algorithm about 2/3 of the way down the page look for "GA with adaptive parameters"... and again congrats to Tradestation, it only took nearly two decades for them to provide a product that lives up to the hype....I sure it fits you perfectly.... and now I think we have strayed away from the original posters intent, so I am out of here... Good night. Edit Just a quick thought, I remember using an optimizer add-on for Excel by Palisade....as I recall they produce a professional level product...and it is (was) priced pretty reasonable.

Actually I stand corrected Onesmith....as of the middle of February 2012, Tradestation upgraded its software to provide portfolio level backtesting... Now whether it works well, or does not, I cannot say...haven't tested it.....you see for a long time IT COULD NOT HANDLE PORTFOLIO LEVEL BACKTESTING...and over a period of time those of us who needed that had to go elsewhere or write our own... I was also a customer and left them, because I managed a portfolio of assets and couldn't wait for them to provide that feature....apparently during the 18 year period you mention, you did not need it....during that time you would have had to have done it manually, I know because I inquired many times.... congrats Tradestation....it only took 18 years!......lol Thanks Onesmith for the update...

Unfortunately Tradestation only goes so far....you cannot for example look at the impact of some types of scale out protocols and in markets (like S&P Futures for example) this is a significant deficit....There are also significant problems for those who need to do portfolio level analysis as well....Tradestation is fine if you already have the product and need to learn the basics....just realize that there is potential to end up with a system that looks good initially but then, doesn't perform as you expect or whose performance degrades quickly once you start live trade. (Yes this can happen with any backtest product, but I would argue that it is more likely with a product like Tradestation).... Many if not most professionals write their own software to accomplish this, although there are a number of alternatives that traders can (and should) look at.... for those seriously interested in this subject, the best way to start is to make a comprehensive list of your goals and then translate that into a list of required "features" that you can use when evaluating backtesting software. Finally, a big part of the success of the user depends on YOUR ability to interpret backtest results. If you don't have a solid foundation in basic stats.....this would be the time to go get it...

It won't be the first time.....

Yes, you are right...however I can't say much about that...one of the reasons I can still post here (without burning my bridges with my old employers) is because I don't comment about bonds or currencies, which were my big part of my job...and yes its called the "bond wiggle"... all the more reason to take the trade....

One of the opportunities I look for is this "last hour trade"....I call it last hour because the setup happens at (or within a few minutes of) 12:00 here on the west coast....Its the same algo pattern that I have posted before (just turned on its head because its a short trade) The horizontal line marks the hour (12:00 noon PST)....the ellipse marks the algo pattern then we have another element that I really find useful....the green arrow shows what I call a "probe" up to find buyers...I like to see this because when it is unsuccessful, it means that an entry in the other direction (in this case a short) is more likely to be good for a few points. So in summary.....last hour signal....unsuccessful probe up to find buyers.....entry right after that (red arrow)....manage the trade down a couple of points... Edit....I was taught to be an observer of human behavior....because that behavior, especially the habitual stuff that we do without thinking can be used to our advantage when trading...as an example....it is friday...and when I first started working in the business I used to be the guy who (every friday) called the car service for my bosses....who as chance has it wanted to go home "early". so they would put on a last trade at or near the top of the hour....they would close it out about a half hour later and leave the office.....remembering this I always like to take this "last hour" trade......

Until someone finds something better I'll put my eggs in that basket....and for the record, Knight's problem wasn't related to statistics, but to a problem with software.... Good luck

I'm sure this will seem harsh but "doing your best" is fine if you're at home playing cards with your friends....or at the bowling alley with your buddies, or at the county fair throwing baseballs at a target trying to win a stuffed animal....theres a time and a place for that sentiment.....no doubt...however....when you are competing with some of the best and brightest for your livelihood....and significant amounts of money are at stake.....then frankly "doing your best" might not be enough....that seems to me to be one of the unfortunate truths we all have to face from time to time (are we "good enough"....or not). My best guess is that the difference between success and failure is often not about how "good" (skilled) you are, but how well prepared you are.... As to your second point....statistics (and my comments were all about BASIC statistics)...is the language that professionals use....people may not believe it, or want to learn it, but thats how THIS game is played and if you don't have a basic understanding (and someone else does) then THEY have an edge over YOU.... Finally, I have been teaching professionals, not retail traders....the reason I do that is that when I tell them something, they listen, they focus on what you say, BUT, then they go and test what you told them, to make sure it works...unfortunately retail traders tend to throw money at "systems", indicators, mentorships and the like without having any done the homework themselves....just because a person talks a good game.......oh well its almost 11pm here and the DAX is going to open....back to work Best of luck to everyone.

You've said some things that are important to me...and if you don't mind I would like to comment I think it makes sense to stop trading if you are exposed to significant stress in your personal life or you are ill for example. The rule in my office is don't even come in if you are ill... On the other side, those of us who have some background with statistics (and I think you have that BH) know that even with an edge, there are going to be strings of consecutive wins and losses....If the laws of statistics hold, then this is true no matter what time frame you trade. Those of us who do this on a regular basis know (in general terms) how our systems perform and if at some point during the year we see an unusual run of losses, we take the time to figure it out.....there are statistical measures that a professional can use to determine whether their edge is holding up or not... and finally (to repeat) if you have a significant edge, and you don't take the trades...you're wasting your money....because you are introducing a randomizing element into your overall results. I realize I am critical of the guy (the OP) but really shouldn't you know this if you are claiming professional status and offering to teach folks....?

Yep, this is basic if you want to last in the business. If you have an edge, take the trades... and yes (again) if you aren't mentally "up to it", either suck it up or get a new job.... I guess the final question for me is why does Predictor post this stuff? (I'm on ignore so I can use his handle, lol) If you didn't know this stuff, how can you suggest that you're qualified to teach people...? Oh well, it was a very nice day....hope everyone had a good one.. Good luck

Yes Josh, "you may have some potential"...... Goodoboy....this little note may help (hope so)....I like to use a 30 min chart to get a better idea of what the big players are doing...what I do that might help you is this 1. the left most red arrow is placed at what I think is an area of interest. I call it an area of interest because just to the left of that you can see the previous candles and the wicks sticking up and down, suggesting that both buyers and sellers were trying to operate there... Also you can see that eventually the sellers won, and they took the market down (look at the wide range red candles that follow as price trends. and, when price tries to retrace back up it creates a lower high....with more wide range down candles...this tells me that this was a strong move 2 As price comes up to that area again...the next red arrow shows where some folks thought they would get in ahead of the open (that next arrow is positioned above a candle at 6am, a full half hour before the bell) These are folks who (generally) are a little bit ahead of the crowd...so what you get from that analysis is ONE opinion based on the premise that certain folks (who might know a bit more than the rest of us) think that this market was headed south... The right most red arrow shows the retracement prior to the FOMC announcement as some folks try to move it back up, but they cannot...again it forms a lower high.... I'll leave the rest to your judgement. Good luck

Its an important question that you ask...how do know what the primary trend is on a given day? Clearly you have to have some kind of reference to lean on right? I am sure you know that people use all kinds of methods to find that reference.....what I was taught to do was to combine a form of market profile with a system that some institutions teach their employees, called "time based pivots"....on the Market Profile side of things I organize data in a fashion similar to what you see on Negotiator's charts.....If I remember correctly he likes to display a series of days, each one seperate from the next....The difference (for me) is that I overlay the data so that it forms one big display...and then I process that data in a couple of different ways.... First off you should know that for me, the most important data is the most recent 2 and 3 day period...from my point of view that data usually has a good chance of representing the current (what I call the "primary") trend. I process that data using a method that I call "characterization"...which means that I try to find patterns of behavior....(does the market often go south in the morning only to rebound in the afternoon for example).... No idea whether this is making sense to you but I also try to answer two basic questions. The first is......is this a balanced or unbalanced market....and the second is...what kind of approach is working in this market?....from my point of view there are two approaches to trading....either you are a breakout trader, meaning you are "initiating" a trade based on price breaking above or below a threshold price or range of prices.....or you are a "responsive trader", putting on a position based on the idea that the market is moving in a range (much like today), and if thats the case you want to look for the market to establish a local high and low that you can use for your entries and exits.... By the way, in a balanced market you want to trade responsively short at the top of the range, long at the bottom...that should help to explain my first post today...and in a unbalanced market you want to take the breakout and hope that the trend continues...

I am sure that by now you are used to being ignored Tiger..... but just this once, and for future reference......I'll let you know when I need your help posting comments...I hope thats clear... I don't mind repeating myself....once...the red arrow shows the market's unsuccessful attempt to find sellers....once that candle closes....and the bid has "held"....the odds of finding a favorable entry are improved...the green arrow shows one of several possible long entries... Good luck folks

Yep you are probably right...

Bit of a break here on my side so I thought I would check this thread out Based on the last time stamp it looks as though folks are undecided or perhaps on the wrong side today...for example if you took a short at the last test of lows, you took a bit of a beating. The chart shows the inset (darker blue bands) where we expected price to move in a range while participants waited to for both domestic and euro econ news (we are still in a news driven market)... On my side I am evaluating balance and value per the multi day "strip" data that I was taught a long while ago...basically we overlay multiple days data and get a longer term picture of where the market thinks value might be and when folks might be motivated to put money to work. What I do that is a bit different is to combine this with time based pivots...and I use confluence of the two to provide entries...today for example at the top of my insets we had short entries in the 82 area and long entries at or near 76+. I show 82.25 or thereabouts to be VAH and 76.50 to be the previous days low. and for those who have problems picking out entries, as mentioned previously I like to pre-position either in the Globex overnight market or prior to the open at about 5:45am PST..this keeps you out of the volatility and if you are on the right side (especially on days when the market trends) you spend most of the session scaling out... The attached chart shows one of the algo patterns that I use to enter. The red arrow shows failure to find sellers and the green shows one (of several) possible points of entry..The bollinger bands serve as "training wheels" for students learning to recognize the setup.. Good luck

so in this reply you take the opportunity to let us know that now you offer one on one mentoring....nice job....isn't that the motto of every good salesperson (keep selling).... I am loving this... Well thats it for me folks....and for those who may be offended (there's always someone who is)....I do apologize....and by all means tiger, go right back into your sales pitch.... Good luck folks.