steve46

Your doing just fine bud.....just remember that you have to manage risk first....keep a reasonble stop in place and take profits in a disciplined way... You and I have talked about this before...you have the right idea, and pretty good instincts....just keep on putting one foot in front of the other.... If you look over at my thread, you can see that 1407 is an important number, not just for me, but for many folks trained like myself...thats (in my opinion) why when price gets there, it bounces....because a lot of others are waiting for that opportunity to get in....you can see it happened later on as well....that one is still moving north As mentioned before you have to have a concept in place and you have to be willing to monitor all the time and execute as many valid opportunities as you can. If you do, your edge will kick in, and you will have whatever cash flow that provides.... Good luck to you Steve

and for those interested in the NQ Although I haven't tested for every market I see that the general concept works well for the NQ....I am not surprised since the correlation between the two is still pretty significant. As you can see price is respecting the distribution boundaries pretty well. At this point I am still trying to simplify the process of creating the distributions...oh well Here are today's charts

and here is the second entry for the day As price comes back off the highs, we look for a test of one of our "time based pivots" In this case we get a test of the daily & weekly RTH low at 1407...when that happens we look for our pattern (penetrating the BB then going back inside and retesting 1407) When that occurs, it means its a viable trade entry and should go up to test 1409.75...if price moves through that area we would expect a test of the previous highs

Just a quick question GOB...were you trying to buy a pullback off of the trend move up? The time stamps have me a little confused as to what you were thinking Thanks

Appreciate the kind words...thanks much The attached chart shows today's open and the first trade. The logic the important part...I create a distribution the evening prior to the open and use it to direct my entries....in this case the distribution says to take any valid long above 1402.375 rounding up I can take any valid entry ABOVE 1402.50... Got the opportunity to do just at 7am today...because entries are time dependent I will always look to obtain confluence of "time & price"....that is to say I want a good price AND I want to enter at the right time....price created the right pattern, and 7am or near to that is one of the preferred times. Today I had some folks following along with me, so I had the opportunity to see how others reacted to the logic...interestingly some of the observers chose to trade "in & out" of their positions during this time....feeling at one point as though the market would turn south on them This is one of the very important issues for retail traders to resolve and get behind them....first plan your entry and stick to it...if your plan is right you will obtain favorable position and if not you take a loss in accordance with your trading plan...then you move on to the next trade... If instead you trade "in & out" especially in this market you are going to pay fees and take small losses that quickly add up and put you in the hole....I saw this happen today to one of my guests... If your position causes you psychological stress, I advise you to put your stop limit in place, take your hands off the keyboard and practice any of several types of stress reduction (my recommended technique is a breathing exercise).....I do this myself and I know it works to keep your physical reactions in check while the market does what it is going to do anyway...with or without you "tick watching".... Good luck in the markets folks Time Based Pivots Tuesday August 28 2012.docx

There were only two ellipses on the chart, the one on the far left marked the origin of a down trending move. It was a point of reference confirming the entry signal on the right.... From my point of view the important message to convey is that successful entries are often aligned with the origins of previous trending moves. That is why in my classes I often tell students to "scan left" to try to find that previous trending move before taking the trade. I have reposted the chart showing the entry (inside the ellipse) and the line pointing to the origin of the previous trending move down... I hope this helps, it may not be what you are looking for but it is an important part of how I make the decision to enter trades..

and here's the exit for that trade....my rule set says either scale out or go flat just prior to the DAX open...the target for the trade is inside the blue rectangle

What you will see in the attached chart is this evening's most recent entry based on my "Algo Pattern" The pattern is pretty simple....you generally have a wide up or down bar or candle that penetrates the BB's (if you use them)....then a reversal candle that is smaller....price then moves away from that local high and returns to retest...at least once depending on the time frame...in this instance for the 3 minute time frame you usually get one, maybe two retests..and then price should move favorably at least 4-6 ticks... If you scan left, you can see that the initial signal lines up with a previous trend move...this is common My distribution tells me that any price less than 1421 is a possible short....my Market Profile data shows me 1412 as Value Area High...so I have confluence....it either works or it doesnt and if comes back to the entry I have a choice to make.... Best of luck to you all

Remarkable..so here is a comment that I feel obligated to make...nothing personal about it. Nothing controversial about it as follows If by "statistical measures" you mean the basic tools that skilled operators can use (both parametric and non) then it is no different than asking a skilled carpenter to build something for you....In either case a skilled, experienced person will know what tools to choose, and how to use them to reach the desired result...

I get the impression that folks are in some way surprised that systems do not work perfectly. I keep track of my batting average and as long as it doesn't dip below a certain point I am fine with it....the old saying is that "losses are part of the game"...what I find is that for retail traders the losses have to be small to be psychologically acceptable...as you get more experience and perhaps have a record of successful trading, you can accept a bit more downside on a periodic basis...as with many things in life it is a matter of knowing where to draw the line...

Well it took a long while to get there, but you have arrived at a conclusion that is clear...you can't use BB's as the centerpiece of a trading system....and thats why in my system they are called "training wheels"....

Like others here I am always amazed at how much you have to say about subjects (you say) you know so little about... discontinous data sets offer challenges to be sure...your problem is that you can't find a solution to that obstacle by doing a couple of hours research on the Internet....

Yes Jpenny, you hit it right on the nose....and how realistic is it to think about "greatness" when so many are struggling just to make a living at this tough business? I think each person should have the right to define their own success...this simple rule set helps me to reach my goals and may help others...... CREATE a profitable trading plan ANTICIPATE the setups RECOGNIZE the entries EXECUTE your trading plan with discipline My suggestion is that traders try to improve consistently in each area... Best of luck in the markets

I am moving right ahead with my commentary... Here is tomorrow's distribution for the ES

Gotta say one more thing about this....since I have been here (a few years) this is one of the only times that anyone has taken a moment to do some of their own research (I am sure the fact that you decided to do this on Bollinger Bands is just coincidence)... Nevertheless, people should make note....this is (in my opinion) the single most productive thing that they can do to learn about a subject and (if we can take this one step further) find ways to use available indicators (technology in general) to advance their understanding of "how to trade successfully"... If someone (anyone) were to take a moment to look at a daily chart, re-read Blue Horseshoe's comment and really think about it, they might see something similar to what I saw when I first started to test BB's. As it turns out, there are a number of ways to use Bollinger Bands, some which John Bollinger anticipated, some that he may not have thought of.... To declare (as Predictor did) that Bollinger's invention was "trivial" is in my view an example of stunning, enduring ignorance...People should take a moment to read about the guy... Thanks again BH for your comment. Steve

Thanks, thats very nice of you to show it in a graphical fashion...I hope you won't mind if I say that my own research shows similar results for INTRADAY data....the only disclaimer is that I have only done research using my own method for entry and exit.. Thanks again, makes my task a lot easier.

Friday's price action on a 30 minute basis...

As usual you set yourself up to be batted around like a game of "whack a mole".... "Specific pattern" is simple two (2) words....not "catchy" at all....very descriptive and it means what it says...this "specific pattern" which I have characterized as algorithmic in nature, has been posted again and again here on this site....in Negotiator's thread on trading the ES contract...in fact others have commented on it...if you find the concept interesting I invite you to do your own research by reading that thread... As far as the setup, in my experience it is the "setup" that losing traders are most interested in....believing that it is the only thing they need to find success (it may be that you are a member of that club)...clearly thats not the case...so I leave it until later while I cover more important information...if this doesn't suit you, once again I invite you cordially to point & click somewhere else... hindsight...? yes that is true...and again if you find this thread unsuitable for your purposes I invite you to find a thread you are more interested in...thanks for your very profound comment....and goodbye....

Thanks Spidey....I'm reminded of a saying by Mark Twain....... "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool, than to speak and remove all doubt".

I am going to fold my tent for the weekend so I thought I would post this last note The attached charts show the 3 minute entry chart and the red arrow shows the reversal near the top of the profit target range. Next to that chart I show a 1 minute view....and the reason I show this is because on a 1 minute time scale it is easier (I think) to see the algo pattern that I use as a signal to trade for me the important part is not the pattern itself but how it is used...you see once you are in a trade, what you can do is to monitor price action (once you get familiar with it) and as long as price continues to move favorably (and you don't see a pattern emerge on your screen) you can stay with the trade confident that you have a good chance to extend your profits.... My general rule is to look for 5 and 10 point moves over periods of time from 30 minutes to several hours... For retail traders the challenges are basically as follows 1. You have to find a systematic approach that generates at least 3 high probability entries per session 2. The trader has to be able to anticipate, recognize and take the trades without hesitation 3. When a trader obtains favorable entry, overall success is determined in relation to A. how long the trader can stay in the position B. size of the position and profit taking rules and C. Ability to manage risk. For this market and others (since the markets are exhibiting significant correlation) entry and exits are time dependent....meaning that the trader would do well to notice that entries occur at specific times of the day....Today for example the best entries occurred at 6am PST (pre-position), at 7am PST and at 7:30am (for the first pullback) Good luck

Okay so I have been working on a "simplified" version of the system that I normally use. This version uses data from the previous 5 and 10 day trading sessions to create a distribution of values where price will tend to move from extremes to the midpoint (or to the opposite extreme). I use two basic charts, a long term (either 90 or 130 min is fine) and the second a 3 min entry chart.... I don't use indicators as such, but I because my entries rely on recognition of a specific pattern, I have a way of making it easier to visualize the pattern by placing Bollinger bands on the entry screen so that potential entries can be seen right away...(I call this "training wheels" for those who remember back to learning to ride a bike). I'm not willing to go into all the details of how I create the distributions....I don't have the time nor the inclination to go through a year (or more) of statistics but those who have a background will be able to figure it out I am sure...and the rest of you should go get a basic stat text and start getting a background (if you find it interesting). Here are the basic charts for today

Here is a quote from my previous post (#19) for those whose short term memory may be compromised..... "What I have found to be true (unfortunately) is that those who benefitted most from my comments were those who were members but did not post, or did not post very much...." Okay so I think I have suffered patiently through all your many attempts to be witty.....and frankly now I am bored......

If I could suggest something obvious...I did this for each of my classes and it seemed to work (better for the last one I guess)....and that is the following If your account permits, why not keep just let one contract run for each trade.....with a B/E stop in place....and just watch....especially if you think you have a nice breakout trade in place, this might work for you...and provide significant extra profit....with manageable risk... Just thought.. Good luck

The original poster suggested in a clumsy multi-paragraph sales pitch...that he couldn't teach trading but incidentally he has these services that he can offer....for a price I suggested in response that trading can indeed be taught....further... here is what works....markets are either consolidating or trending, so you trade responsively short at the top, long at the bottom of each range....and if you are lucky one of those times, price will break out with you on board...and the advantage is you don't have to pay anyone to teach you.....YOU CAN TEACH YOURSELF.....are you getting this yet...?