steve46

Sir or Madam The system is still in development. Your comments about proving anything or providing data are A)premature, and B)unecessary since I don't intend to sell it....(if it turned out to be very profitable, why would I?) Thanks for your interest.....

Here's a follow-up to that trade...notice a couple of things... First the entry (if taken promptly) would have filled at 49.....with favorable excursion up to 50.25 where it reversed....our usual advice is to take partial profit at one point (we call it "buying a stop" because now you have a free trade) When price revisits the entry point, if you took that partial profit, you had two choices...A) re-charge the position by adding back to the original size, or B) close out with your partial profit less commission...normally we "re-charge" by adding here... After a re-test of the entry point, price goes back up but fails, short of the local high, leaving a "spike" (selling tail) tail...which tells us that odds now favor a reversal....at this point we would have closed the position...(for better or worse until we had better visibility as to market direction)...

Will Do GOB and we had a nice trade in Globex time today as seen in the attached chart

I have final comment then I am done here.....it seems to me that (quite naturally) people get off on tangents that are perhaps unproductive.... Clearly the guy is interested in selling whatever it is that he produces....thats the reason he's here.....and each "stakeholder" in this equation is likely to have an interest as follows If I am the site owner, I would like vendors to purchase sponsorships, especially if they are "aggressively" selling their product or service...as this gentleman clearly is doing... If I am a member here I would like to be able to know whether what he sells is worth considering, and here it seems to me that upon closer investigation, most of what he says is "smoke & mirrors"...for example...he "claims" that all his "trades" are recorded and audited at C2 (a third party)...however when pressed to provide a link to that record, the gentleman demurs; "As for C2, I said in the "in the past". I hid my C2 records when I went live because I can make a lot more trading then I was renting out my systems. My historical records still exist but are hidden.. no reason to allow others to data mine my trades. As for my real-time records, they exist too and no I'm not going to share them." Data mining?...give me a break...somethings not right with that....and since many brokers have the capability to produce similar reports on any time frame, its not that the data doesn't exist but more probably that it (his "real" record) simply isn't very good.... Personally I think a smart vendor would simply put it all to rest by using "GoToMeeting" or some similar conferencing software and offering to have folks watch him trade live over a period of say a week to ten days.....I did that myself for my first class and it seemed to provide a nice basis for them to consider how my system worked... Just one man's opinion....

Yes, absolutely, I see it the same way....NQ is looking a little easier to trade these days, but thats another story...Careful, he'll put you "on ignore" (with the rest of us) soon.....ROFL....

JoshDance Noticed your "Thank you" recently...this is a EuroStoxx distribution for Monday.... Couple of things might be of interest to you (and perhaps others).....although as "Predictor" has pointed out, I have very little to offer....ROFL First of all, there are two kinds of lines in this distribution....the thin lines represent prices where short time frame participants might take action...while the thicker lines represent prices where longer time frame participants might be motivated to take action... And you might also notice that to the right, where the "logic arrows" are placed, near the lower half of the distribution you can see an area where two arrows are side by side....what this means depends on which way price goes, if it tests that level....the way its set up, if price takes out that level, in my opinion, it means that shorter time frame participants are in control and are probably taking profit....if on the other hand price tests that level and reverses to the north..in my opinion it may indicate the presence of longer time frame participants. Based on experience I would guess that the odds favor price testing down about have way into the median (blue rectangle) then pushing north to continue the uptrend...of course we all know that anything is possible... I had some extra time and thought I would give it a shot.....we will see what happens on Monday...... Good Luck Steve

OK, so no C2... ("I'm not going to share the records") and a "real time call"....is whatever you want it to be.....cause "its for your benefit first"..... I think we are pretty clear on what you have to offer now....thanks

As usual, the distribution worked excellently today....price "started" outside the median (blue rectangle) and moved toward it....this is one of two scenarios that we have seen... and the logic arrows made it very easy to trade....as you review the intraday charts you can see that price tested the distribution lines and reversed, providing several nice opportunities to get short...assuming you had the confidence to do so, you could have simply held a position all day and ended up with a nice profit at the close.... What I like about this system is that you can see where the opportunities are, and stay out during the congestions, where normally a trader gets chopped up.... Assuming we have no further questions we are going to finish work on our method to approximate the distribution process so that the average trader with a general background in math can create it in less than a half hour in the evening prior to the next day's open....and then we will close this thread and simply trade it.. Best of luck to all

For the index futures, "Commercial" participants have access to the floor and/or work for smaller firms. In contrast, "Institutions" are primarily (what most folks would think of as) banks. Some like my old friends at Goldman, are no longer technically called banks, but they act the same.....and what they try to accomplish is the same (to make a profit) however they go about it in different ways...and they are capitalized much differently... Unfortunately I have some time constraints that prevent me from going into this in detail, and it would be interesting because since the mortgage crash, things have changed a great deal...(Goldy is technically no longer a bank for example, thats a big change)...but this should provide a little bit of visibility as to what the primary difference is between the two groups. .

Just a quick note....and hopefully it won't be interpreted badly "Institutional" participants have not been sellers up high....at least not recently....in fact they are more likely to add to existing positions and/or to move price even higher...as I recall Dalton covers this in some of his books on Market Profile...speculators and commercials (and the few retail traders left) are likely to have a different view and may indeed be sellers at what they perceive to be a market top... Also it seems to me that in this market most of the big players prefer to stand off and wait for opportunity before acting...there isn't a way to "see" them until they decide to buy or sell. most of what we "see" is automated programs ghosting orders....placing and pulling them to create the illusion of liquidity at various levels... Finally one should understand that we are late in the year and institutional particpants only get paid if they hit their profit targets...There certainly could be a news driven pullback however most of the institutions willl try to mark it up whenever possible....from here to the holidays...

I thought I was clear Retest means a price (1450 for example) was "taken out" to the up or down side, then price comes back to touch it again....and fails (reverses)....I hope that is clear.

Thought I would give this a shot Here is the NQ Distribution (and my trading screen) for tomorrow I can set this up for any liquid market. Good Luck Folks

Here's another nice example of a trade that sets up during the Globex session. As can be seen in the attached chart, price takes out the line (1450) then closes below... and THEN retests (and fails)....if you took a short entry at the retest (right at 1450) and held briefly, you had a nice 2 point winner (so far)....

Thought I would post a full screen view of today's last trade and some additional commentary about the differences between long and short time frame participants As can be see in the chart there are two kinds of lines...the thin lines represent areas where I believe short time frame particpants are likely to come in to A. take short entries and B) start the "end of day" profit taking process... The thicker blue lines represent areas where long time frame participants are likely (if they are around) to take long positions and try to move price higher I notice that there are discussions about value on other threads (ROFL)...value is subject to interpretation by participants "based largely on time frame"....with the longer time frame participants viewing higher prices as "fairly valued"....why? because it is the longer time frame participants who view price in terms of the forward value of projected earnings of the asset....while short time frame participants see value predominatey in the present value of assets.....As always I enjoy the comedy routine these deep thinkers are posting..... by the way....for those who think it might be appropriate to use this thread as their battleground for more silly comments about "value"....I invite you to copy my statement from the above and paste it into your own thread....thanks...

Where to go from here Gotta say that my experience of trading has really changed because of this system...what I was trained to do was pretty complex and although it worked well, the volatility was significant. This way the vol is reduced and so are my stress levels..... One of the things that I am enjoying is the time based approach to watching the screen...I know that my priority times are at the front end of the session so I am there for the pre-open position trade (when it occurs) and during the open for those high probability time periods. Then if I want to I can simply go do other things until the afternoon...then I can come back and still catch the last trade of the day...sure I expect to occaisionally miss trades, but this is proving to be the way to go for me (it seems to fit my personality pretty well)... I suspect that what I will do is to stop and consider my course from here....I still haven't found a way to approximate the distribution creation process although I think I will have that available in the near future....and with the holidays coming on fast I will probably just trade it..and answer the periodic questions that may come up.. Good luck folks

Actually GOB, last night I had family obligations to attend to, and did not have the time to publish my ES & DAX distributions...I am glad if that old line worked for you and others.. For today's RTH session, the distributions are attached below And the final trade for those interested happened a little after 12 PST (3pm EST) Notice if you will that now there are two (2) elements to my distribution lines...one is the lines themselves, the other is a wider "barrier line"....these wider barrier lines (colored blue) are where longer time frame players have come in to buy or sell in the past....and when price tests these areas, we now see short time frame players (or those who have decided to trade intraday) acting.... The second chart shows three time frames 10,3 and 1 min, but the view is the same as price tests the longer time frame line, and fails just after 12 (3 EST)....as mentioned in response to GOB's inquiry a few posts ago, I look for what I call a "spike failure"....and I enter what I hope will be a reversal trade to the south...in this case it worked out very nicely (about a 5 point move down)....

This should look familiar to those who have been following along... Setup occurred this evening and as you can imagine I have seen it many times What it tells me, is that the distribution lines work very well....that there are other professionals out there using a similar framework.....and that those other professionals exist worldwide...

The first trade is taken because I see all the spikes indicating that sellers are stepping in here (so for me that is "close enough") the second is taken because of the gap and the retest of that gap border...take a look at it again and file it away in your memory....it is a high probability pattern.

Here is my last chart for the day.. The distribution is working beautifully.....trading touches of the 50 line produced several nice trades on a day when most folks are scratching their heads wondering what to do.. The answer is as follows A) you work from "Macro" concept that you know is viable...B) you adapt to the local volatility....C) you take small (and not so small) bites out of the market and finally D) you manage risk...(and the way you do that is to enter with precision and respect your stoploss... To the extent that a trader learns these lessons, he/she is going to be consistently profitable Best to all

Here is a nice one as well....one that I have pointed out before as price tests below to find sellers, then reverses and retests for a long entry signal. Not easy to be patient and disciplined during the entry process...not easy to hold it long enough to take a profit, but thats the job you signed up for...and when you do it correctly, the result is early profit.. Some may remember that I added this distribution line to my original pre-market post...1450 is an significant line in the sand...

The attached chart shows a nice short entry off the DAX open this evening The arrows show the setup originating on the DAX chart, as price "takes out" a distribution line and then hooks upward to retest that line.....on the retest, because our logic arrows direct us to "prefer" short entry, that is what we do....short on the retest and failure...and this one works out nicely...(there are two possible entries, the one on the right corresponds to the DAX entry arrow)....

For this system, I will be stressing the importanc of "time & price" together....this is meant to provide a framework that retail traders can use to help them deal with the problems of directing their attention to the screen continously.....most folks simply cannot do it and end up missing opportunities...so we have a set number of critical times and the trader can manage time and take breaks periodically to insure that they don't miss a valid trade... The attached chart shows one such opportunity...the vertical line is a "clearance line"...it tells the trader that he/she should be ready to trade if the opportunity presents itself....valid setups are possible within a half hour of this point in time (this line is positioned at 10am PST). Valid setups can originate from either the DAX or the ES chart, so both have clearance lines in place In this case the trade "sets up" at approx 10:11am when price takes out the distribution line and then retraces to test it...the logic arrows on the distribution shows the preference for a short trade, and when price retests and fails that tells the trader that the odds favor a continuation short trade.... Depending on the skills and experience of the trader, they have the option to read the tape or to use any number of preferred data for confirmation...If I were trying to teach someone to do this I would want to show them how to evaluate the data quickly using the $TICK, $VOLD and/or $ADD. As mentioned previously I am not going to go through all the stats, but once a trader starts to use it, keeping track of their own forward walking data should provide everything they need to maintain a decent level of performance...

and this last chart shows the afternoon rollover. On this chart it seem to start at 10:30am PST, actually this move down began about 10:10 which corresponds to the end of NY lunch hour

Hello GOB Have to put your questions on hold for the moment because of time constraints at my end For this session the distribution did its job as usual....and I wanted to reference the DAX one more time....there is a reason I keep it on my screen and today is a good example....also the importance of "trading time" specifically looking at important time periods (like the London open) as a critical time based pivot.... Last night London opened and (as seen in the DAX chart on the right)...they tried to find buyers but could not as evidenced by the left most arrow on that chart showing the spike up. The next arrow shows the RTH open and once again we see how DAX leads the action, probing up to find buyers and when they cannot, both the DAX and ES drop down into a range for the day...