steve46

I suspect this will be interesting to some.. What we have is the daily chart with trend lines in place AND based experience my projection of where we MIGHT retrace (blue rectangle) if there is a significant news driven negative event..... We'll see This is the area where institutions are likey to be willing to buy again (at a discount) and try to move the market back up in time for end of year bonus action

and here is the follow up to that trade.....I leave it to the reader to decide whether that one was "worth it"...

Missed this next opportunity...because I was posting instead of trading..lesson learned The attached chart shows price retesting a distribution line....inside the ellipse notice that price tests and fails twice....since we cannot eliminate risk from the equation, what you have is a simple proposition....is the level going to hold, with price reversing significantly enough to provide a profit, or not.....on an individual trade NO ONE KNOWS.....and we are paid to take (and manage) this risk.... I think you take the trade...since the market direction (to this point in time) is still down

"IMHO There is something strange about the logic in the rationale behind posting in this thread." I think there is something strange about YOUR posting in this thread....if you have no interest (as you've mentioned) in this method....why post....? Perhaps because you have put your foot in your mouth and now you are having trouble removing it.....yes? I suggest you present someone else with the gift of your wisdom.... thanks

and continuing the theme of the previous post, this morning the NQ moved down Interestingly the attached chart shows the trending nature of that market even though the DAX is sideways New home sales data was reported at 7am PST and three minutes later we tested a distribution line and then dropped....the "strange" (according to some) logic has us waiting for this retest as price takes out the distribution line, and then entering short on that retest....the move down is worth about $200 per contract (thus far) With the recent comments about "proof" (how much do you need)....and backtesting, we observe that the reason this distribution is valuable to the trader is that it identifies areas where MARKETS ARE LIKELY TO TEST AND THEN TREND SIGNIFICANTLY....thus it provides a framework that a trader can use to initiate a position....once he/she does that it becomes a question of whether or not they can A) hold long enough to obtain a profit, and B) manage risk adequately to avoid (and/or minimize) losses... Thats the kind of "strange" I'll take every day..... Best of luck to all. Steve

Monitoring Euro News this evening I notice a couple of interesting things that will probably have significant impact on trading during the RTH session First, the German Government has approved the ESM...and second they have banned high frequency trading.....I probably will not have additional comments on these subjects because they are part of an edge I don't wish to give up... The attached chart shows the impact on price action as the new breaks about an hour after the London open

Whenever I see a person who seems developmentally delayed, I like to ask (if you don't mind saying) how old are you? awaiting your responses

Here are my ES & DAX distributions for tomorrow

Here's the close of cash market (NYSE) A few observations First, agree with DB Phoenix that this market is easier to trade than the ES, especially on a trending day....you simply get on and "hold on"....therefore for the retail trader with a limited budget, in our opinion, this would be the place to start... The trader would need at to have a least two (preferrably 5 or more) contracts to place for each position, and depending on skill and risk temperment we would suggest scaling in initially until the trader had some confidence as to direction. Once that experience was in place, positions of at least 2 at a time would provide a reasonable level of profit on good days and minimal risk on the adverse day when the trader is unable to get on the right side.. $5/tick $20/point Reasonably liquid, relatively smooth linear moves, displaying less noise than the ES and less automated "excess"....however be aware that all these markets are now strongly correllated so it is manadatory to trade looking at either the DAX or the ES for guidance and confirmation of trend...I think we will continue to trade it since it seems (in our opinion) to be akin to picking up twenty dollar bills off the ground....

Today's final trades both shorts The "logic" that (apparently) some find "a bit strange", seems to work beautifully as price "takes out" each level then retests...and on the retest, you enter...its that simple... I am done for the day, Good luck folks Steve

and here is the "counter" for today....we did not take it because the vol was excessive...and the setup occurred too close to the low end of the distribution line.... What you want to look at is the way that price "travels" from one line to the next creating a channel....the "safe" trade was the open and the retrace (and failure) back down to the lower extremity of the channel....so actually you had two chances to get on board and obtain a favorable short position.

Here is the opening trade...price tests up just slightly....and then reverses down Entry on the failure to hold the distribution line results in a nice profit right away...

Here is an example of today's NQ Trading Screen setup....As can be seen in the attached chart...I am going to try to use the relationship between the ES and NQ...I will also be monitoring the DAX on another screen

I would say that Negotiator's "Daytrading the Emini Futures" thread is one of the most useful contributions on the site....whether by content or page views...traders can find value in a number of ways reading it....

I direct your attention to the first page of the thread where the "free flow of thoughts" and dialogue takes place.... Read if you will the profound commentaries by Predictor, Bluehorseshoe, and Onesmith....and the citations from prestigious academic sources (like Wikipedia for example). As we proceed forward page after page, it becomes clear that this "system" such as it is, has some merit, and suddenly there is interest (12,000 page views in a month) where before people were belittling and critical....and then this final phase where those who have apparently missed the boat come in to either offer "help" or to challenge me to prove something..... One can't say at this point whether I have stumbled onto something important (naturally I think I have), however what I can suggest is that you all are a bit late to the party....and personally I find it amusing....

and now a sampe of the NQ overnight price action....clearly the distribution lines are providing a nice framework for entering (and exiting) trades. As before and with other markets we show two kinds of lines, thicker blue rectangles delineate areas where longer time frame participants are likely to act, and thinner lines where (in our opinion) the short time frame participants are likely to act....We infer that these two separate "types" of participants are at work depending on the type of price action that occurs For example, based on recent experience we believe that the longer time frame participants are more likely to buy at the upper end of the distribution extreme, while it is the shorter time frame participants who (again in our opinion) will be motivated to take profits at these same exteme price points. Also because of the presence of automated programmed execution, we know that liquidity is periodicaly absent the market, and during these times, it seems both parties essentially stand aside waiting for the market to determine a direction (based on some news driven event)....when this happens it is likely that price action will be primarily horizontal development (relatively small range)...

I suggest you (and Eqys) point & click yourself to some other thread where the other children play nice....as to whether the "logic" is strange, I think the experience of making money is strange and unusual to many here at TL....and as with the first few posts, there have been many profound pronouncements about how this "cannot" work.....and yet here we are... Personally I find myself with little time or interest, to debate the subject..... Good evening

and tomorrrow's NQ Distribution lines...for a change I will be trading the NQ tomorrow.

Tuesday's ES & DAX Distribution Lines

Once the market closes...taking entries based on that same distribution might not work (except due to random chance).....thats why I create a new one each evening... and of course when you trade the new market (globex) you need to use a 1 min chart to begin with...from my point of view there was no trade in the Globex market until about 1700 hours....and that trade that setup resulted in another 4 pts.....

admittedly in hindsight, although I have posted many similar examples as much as 12 hours prior to the open of RTH This is interesting to ME because it outlines the price action from the Globex open to the end of RTH and of interest is the way the pre-programmed "logic" arrows worked...

You know its interesting folks Suddenly there's a lot of interest in what I am doing here I've had people offer "help" of all kinds from programming, to assistance in recording and evaluating data....I think thats wonderful... however I am going to be doing things (or not) in my own good time, using my own judgement as to what is (and isn't) important...and what is (and isn't) necessary for my own success.... Thanks to everyone for their gracious offers of assistance... Steve

You know I taught stats for 7 years...I think I know what is required (clearly) Thanks

Nice to hear The real important questions are "how much drawdown did you experience"? and "How did you decide WHEN to enter (price was going sideways for quite a while) and finally you probably should add your last trade to Negotiator''s thread to provide some balance... Best Regards Steve

Nothing particularly earthshaking about this chart What works (in current conditions) is to enter at the extremes....and hold until you test the opposite extreme....The distribution lines help make this easier to visualize, and the rest is up to the trader... Unfortunately while posting this I missed the third and potentially best entry of the day so far...too bad...